Tag: jared goff

NFL picks week 4 ATS 10/2/21

Still picking splinters out of my b-hole as I took a bat to the backside last weekend, 4-6. How the hell did the Vikings NOT hit the over after there were over 30 points scored at the half!??! Philly ate shit as did the Chiefs so first week under .500. Always tough to keep at a 66% clip but great news, I’m still 58% which definitely keeps you going back to the window to CASH THOSE TICKETS. Ready for freeeeee money? Great! And don’t spend your winnings checking out the new Sopranos movie, hoofa, did that suck.

Why bury the best game on the slate? Rams are home after disappointing the Bucs teased to +7.5 and they’re facing the also undefeated Cardinals. Let’s give some stats and this is going to smack you across the face like a Roman soldier helmet; the real thing or the sexual act. The Rams are 10-2 SU and 5-3 ATS at home. Rams offensive line is morning boner solid, only 3 sacks allowed all year. McVay 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS against the Cards and his AVERAGE cover margin is 14 points. Cards AVERAGE 16.5 ppg against the Rams. How about some Kyler Murray stats? His QB rating against the Rams: 31, 12, 53, and 38. That’s really awful. Speaking of awful, how about that Sopranos film? Christ almighty, what a Cleveland Steamer of a film. But here you have it, undisputed evidence why the Rams are the play. I teased the Rams to a pick em along with the Bengals -1.5 so halfway home! I also teased the Bengals and Rams over to 48.5 as the Rams are 5/5 over at home. I can easily see this being a 31-20 game.

Big spread ml parlay special this week: Bengals, already covered. Bills 11-3 ATS and 10-2 SU of late, Hou 1-7 SU of late. You mean to tell me the Texans stand a cunt hair’s chance in Buffalo? I sure don’t. But I locked this parlay in on Wednesday which was before Julio Jones and AJ Brown were ruled out. The Jets have scored 20 pts IN 3 GAMES ALL SEASON. Yes, the Titans defense is awful but here’s a nugget that doesn’t hurt to poop out: Derrick Henry AVERAGES 146.6 yds in each of last 9 games. Tenn is 2-4 ATS of late but 13-7 SU. Jets 1-8 ATS and SU at home. I’m not saying this is going to be pretty; I’m saying like this would be paying to have sex with a stripper from Belleville, NJ…not proud of it and certainly not telling your friends but it will get the job done.

Bengals, Bills, Titans ML parlay

There shouldn’t be many points in this game due to the Jets sucking and the aforementioned two wideouts sitting: Jets under at home 11/17 and overall 6/7 of late. So let’s hold our noses and pray for heavy doses of Derrick Henry.

Titans under 44.5 and Titans 1h under 23

Well, the NY Giants continue to burn me like I was accused of heresy or homosexuality in the 15th century when betting them as a favorite. Now they head to the reopened Superdome after the hurricane washed away leftover Oakleys from drunk people leaving them after falling asleep in an alley of piss. Saints D is tops, #1 in PA, #2 in yards allowed. Hey guess what? No Slayton or Shepard in the lineup this weekend. I don’t care that the Giants are 10-2 ATS on the road, they’re 4-8 SU of late, 1-5-1 ATS, 2-5 SU against the Saints. Winston not wowing people on offense but I cannot see the Giants storming back to backdoor this one, let alone win. But why take a chance so I teased the Saints down along with the Titans

Saints teaser -1.5 and Titans teaser -1.5

Saints under of late 5/5 as well as 5/5 vs NFC and the Giants are 5/6 against the NFC. Pitt under 7/10 of late, 12/17 on the road, and 6/7 vs NFC. Ben is cooked and Pitt’s d can slow down Aaron Rodgers enough to keep this score below 51.5 with the tease

Giants teaser under 47.5 and Pitt teaser under 51.5

The TB line baffles as much as people who find Sebastian Maniscalco funny. We get it, he reminds you of your Italian family with goofy faces. He’s making a mint with his merch and I’m typing up NFL picks on a Saturday afternoon, he wins! But I can’t see a possibility that the Pats win; I don’t care that Brady is running the Pats offense in Tampa. I care that Brady off a loss and ready to shove it up Bellichick’s dickhole. Bucs are 8-4 ATS of late, 10-1 SU, and 8-1 SU on the road. The Pats are 2-5 SU and ATS. Pats have been underdogs at home 19x since 2000 and they’re 14-4 ATS. How many are with Brady? IDK, I’m not giving that much of a shit. Name one Patriots offensive player that you have to circle. I’ll wait. Still waiting. I’ll see a better Sopranos movie before you give me someone who strikes fear into any of your hearts. The Pats strength is running the ball and we all know how the Bucs can stop the run. The Pats have NO ONE who can expose the Bucs secondary so how are the Pats able to score points? Antonio Brown is back but Gronk is out. I see nothing but a Bucs win but didn’t want to lay 7 in the goofy backdoor instance.

Saints teaser -1 and Bucs teaser -1

Who are the Bears starting at QB? Cade McNown, Jim Miller, or Rex Grossman are all candidates vs what Fields did last week agains the Browns. Chicago got blown out 2/3, Allen Robinson has 4 straight games under 40 yds. Call me insane but I like the Lions which the Ford family hasn’t said in a long time except when talking about tax write offs. I had the Ravens in 2 teasers and the ML parlay so when that Tucker FG took a fortuitous bounce, I shit myself pretty hard. Harder than David Chase did when writing that Sopranos film. Ok, I’m done with those references, I promise. But the Bears are -3, who the fuck are they to be laying ANY kind of points, especially when they have YET to name this week’s QB. Detroit has played hard for 2.5 out of 3 games this year and we all know they should’ve won last week. Lions previous numbers don’t back the play but remember these are all with Stafford and not Goff: 2-4 ATS and 1-4 ATS in Chicago. I think the play is to play a 7 pt teaser and get the Lions to over 10.5. Watch the Lions win outright…

I’ve hit the Vikings dead nuts last week and bet their over every game this week. BTW, Thielen has a caught a TD in 11 straight October games. This Browns D stinks and they’ve covered 2 games over the past DECADE against the NFC. Browns 1-7 SU vs Minn, 1-4 SU in Minn. Minn is 12-3 SU in October and 6-2-1 ATS in week 4. Give me wackadoo Kirk Cousins who has been top 3 QB this year so far catching 10 points.

7 pt teaser Vikings +10 and Lions teaser +10.5

After my buddy Nick gave me a few stats, it’s hard to unsee these stats: Seattle is 15-5 ATS against the Niners, 13-2 SU, and 6-1 SU in SF. Niners are 4-8 ATS of late and 0-5 SU. And now Seattle is catching points AND off 2 losses? This is do or die time for Russ to air it out like Rodgers did against SF last weekend. If not now, when?

Sea +3

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NFL week 1 and season total bets

Here we go! Week 1 and what seems like an eternity of waiting to get hands on that sweet, sweet, FREEEEEE MONEY. Hope you loaded up on the Bucs money line like I told you to as well as the other props that hit. Vegas for me and the boys this weekend so you’re getting lines that I locked in on weeks ago. Heavy, medium, and light describe how much I put on them.

Over/unders

Giants over 7 (heavy)

They won 6 last year with no weapons on offense. They have an extra game this year and added Golladay, Rudolph, and get Barkley back. Yeah, I think despite a dogshit offense line they can muster up another win or 2 in this awful division. Speaking of…

Giants to win NFC east +450 ( light)

No team in that division scares me. At all. Fitzpatrick gags it up as much as he pulls it out of his ass. And he’s 38 to boot; even a Harvard guy hasn’t figured out time travel and make himself younger. Dak is fresh off a surgery and with shoulder issues and McCarthy couldn’t coach a kid out of his mother’s uterus. And Philly is trash like its fans. Why not take a flier for a little and hope 7 or 8 wins for the Gmen cashes a playoff ticket too?

Cowboys under 9.5 (moderate)

For all the reasons I gave why I don’t have respect for Dallas. Did you watch Hard Knocks? I’d rather follow a blind man crossing the NJ Turnpike than follow McCarthy’s leadership.

Saints under 9 (moderate)

Hurricane keeps the Saints out of New Orleans and gives that town a bidet rinse. And do you trust Jameis Winston for a season? I do not. That defense is nothing special and btw, Michael Thomas is out for 2 months and not a happy camper. Also…

Saints to miss the playoffs (moderate)

For the exact reasons I gave above

Jaguars under 6.5 (moderate)

What part of that team do you trust? Are you going to put your trust on Lawrence? Maybe a little but that defense and that division is trouble. Jags won 2 games last year and now they have to win 5 more to bust this bet? That’s like a dude who goes from 300 pounds to 250 and thinks he’s ready to start dating mediocre 3rd grade teachers in Miami. Slow down, junior.

Tampa Bay to win division -240 (heavy)

Titans to win division -110 (moderate)

Weak division and the only real competition is coming from Indianapolis. In case you missed it, Carson Wentz had foot surgery and looked like a mess in Philly. Maybe he regains some of his mojo but not a ton of offense outside of Taylor. Or maybe he kills himself because he has to live in Indianapolis.

Colts under 9 (moderate)

For all of the reasons I gave above, especially about having to live in Indianapolis.

Maholmes MVP +500 (moderate)

Best player in football at his position and after a tough Super Bowl loss, he’ll have a chip on his shoulder. Any not named Aaron Rodgers or Josh Allen really doesn’t scare me. But you know who does scare me? Michael Clarke Duncan. He’s dead? Never mind, I think I can take what’s left of his corpse.

Week 1 bets!

Dallas is 5-11 ATS of late and 2-9 SU on the road. Tampa 8-0 SU of late, 4-1 ATS at home. Yeah, I know this is week 1 so let’s make this easy: I teased the Bucs to -1 in one teaser, -2 in another teaser, and made them part of 2 money line parlays. This game went to 9.5 a couple of hrs before kickoff, insane when it opened 6.5

Tampa -1 in a teaser (heavy)

The second half of my first teaser is Tennessee over teased down to 45. The Titans defense is more gaping than Hope Solo’s photo shoot (go google that “masterpiece”) But they also put up points too and Arizona is no slouch…themselves. Some stats that may deflate my argument are Arizona is 5/7 of late 6/6 under on the road and 11/13 under in September. But the Titans were 7/9 over and 11/15 over at home as well as 6/7 over vs NFC. Both of those teams can moonwalk to 45.

2nd half of teaser Tenn over 45 (heavy)

The Rams take on that ginger freak turnover machine, Andy Dalton at home. That’s really all you need to know. Bears are 5-13 SU at LA and the Rams start off HOT, 8-2-1 ATS. I made this part of a teaser as I don’t feel like laying 7.5

First half of teaser Rams -1.5

Second half of teaser Bucs -2

Three way money line parlay: Bucs, Rams, and Niners

Going to take:

Vikings are over 8/11, 7/9 vs AFC, and 6/8 against AFC north of late. Burrow has weapons and is healthy. Should have some easy scoring in this game

Minn over 47.5

Niners are playing Detroit and this is going to be a beatdown. Goff is now in Detroit and boy, he must have been caught with the Rams’s owner daughter knee deep on the 50 yd line to get shipped out of LA. Det 1-11 SU at home, 1-6 SU of late, 2-4 ATS home against SF. Also 2-4 ATS in week 1. I think the Niners eat them alive but let’s take it down with a 7 pt teaser.

Niners teaser to -.5 (moderate)

Giants are 4-2 SU at home against Den but 3-7 ATS and 3-12 SU in September. Denver is starting Bridgewater and are we going lose to him. Goddamn, I’ll be shocked if they lose by 10.

Giants +10 2nd half of teaser (moderate)

Another 3 way money line parlay

GB, KC, and Sea.

Reid is 16-0 SU in September and Cle is 1-5 SU against KC. And KC didn’t cover games, they just won outright: 1-9-1 of late but 12-2 SU and 15-2 SU at home. Enough said. Seattle has 8-1 SU in September, 4-1 SU in last 5. I don’t trust Wentz who was supposed to miss 2-3 months and Quinton Nelson is out. Colts are 0-7 SU in week 1. I can’t trust Winston and now they have to play at least 2 road games? Aaron Rodgers on his “Last Dance” tour is going to torch everyone in his path until it’s time to play the NFC championship game at home in which he stinks. Yeah, I had money on him AGAIN last year on them. God, I hope Shaliee Woodley bangs his brother on Aaron’s couch…

Pitt under 48.5

Pitt under 14/20 on the road and under 5/6 vs Buffalo. Ben can’t get into a shooting match with Josh Allen so they’re going to run the ball against an average Buff defense.

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NFL Divisional playoffs round

3-2 last weekend, 56-47. Hit the Saints/Titans teaser, the 3 way parlay, and the Bucs/Bills teaser. Lost the Rams under/Bucs under teaser and Bucs under/Titans over teaser.

I’ll be goddamn if I lay 1 red cent on Jared Goff in the playoffs, let alone in cold temperatures.  Jared Goff is 0-2 ATS and outright in his career in games below freezing with zero passing touchdowns and five interceptions. That’s like betting on Seth Rogen to do a film without having his character being an awkward pothead. Aaron Rodgers is 6-0 ATS in his career against the Rams, and Green Bay has covered seven straight meetings overall dating back to 2007. GB 5-1 against the Rams to boot. Packers are 4-2 ATS of late, 6-0 SU of late, and 5-0 SU at home. Packers are 7-2 ATS in January. The Rams are 21-13 ATS on the road under McVay. Oh yeah, Aaron Donald is banged up. At least Dr. Strange came up with 1 out of over hundred million scenarios where the Avengers beat Thanos. I can’t think of one that doesn’t involve Aaron Rodgers getting injured or thrown in jail for underage women the night before the game. BUT…I want to make this rocking chair game even easier as I want to tease another game so let’s make this…

First leg of the teaser: GB -.5

I gotta admit, I was leaning Buffalo at first…until I started getting into the numbers and your moms’ boxes. Let’s call it as we saw it; Bills looked pretty exposed against the Colts and my asshole was puckered up HARD that last quarter. Ravens stopped the best RB in the NFL last week; what do you think they’re going to do to Devin Singletary? And they stopped Tannehill who is a top 10-15 QB. I think they’re gonna run the ball right up the Bills taint this week. Baltimore is 9-1 ATS and 7-3 outright as an underdog since drafting Lamar Jackson in 2018. Jackson is 6-1 ATS and 5-2 outright as an underdog. Jackson is 14-3-2 ATS in his career on the road. Baltimore is 11-5-1 ATS this season, tied with Miami (11-5) for the best mark in the league. Buffalo is 11-6 ATS, the third-best mark in the league. Baltimore 6-3 ATS against Buffalo, 4-1 SU. Ravens 13-2 SU on the road. Buffalo 6-0 SU at home, 7-0 SU of late, 8-1 ATS. 2 things scare me: if it snows, Lamar has NEVER played a game in the snow. But it’s supposed to be snow showers with winds of 10-20 mph. Which definitely favors the run and takes something away from the Josh Allen passing attack. Would you be shocked the Ravens won? Nope. Is this going to be close? Yep. so let’s make this the focal point of our teaser.

Second leg of the teaser Ravens +8.5

Andy Reid does two things great: remain morbidly obese and crush teams off a bye. BUT KC hasn’t been doing their 1990’s Florida State Bobby Bowden impression and run shit up. Kansas City is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games. The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS at home in that span and 0-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite in that span. Since 2014, reigning Super Bowl champions are 4-1 ATS in their first playoff game the following season. I think Baker blew his load like TT Boy and Peter North joined forces with a thermonuclear geyser of jazz. By the by,  Baker Mayfield is 0-4 ATS in his career as more than a 7-point underdog. He is 0-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog.  Double-digit favorites are 6-1 ATS in the divisional round since 2010. Patrick Mahomes is 4-1 ATS in the playoffs (3-0 last season). Cleveland is 3-10 ATS in conference games this season. I think the Browns definitely lose this but laying 10 is absurd for all of the above reasons I’ve cited. Browns have been good of late SU, 5-1 on the road, 7-2 SU of late. Chiefs 13-2 at home, 1 of those losses is with their B squad in week 17. So it’s 7 point teaser time and I know some of you may say, “Why not take the Browns to +17, that’s a super sharp play?” It sure is and I won’t eat your lunch for it. But could you see the Chiefs coming out, off the bye, and sick and tired of hearing how they’re barely eeking games out. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Chiefs win by 20.

1st leg of 7 pt teaser Chiefs -3

History shows the cliché of “it’s hard to beat a team three times in the same season” is overblown. In the Super Bowl era, teams that won the first two meetings are 14-8 outright in the third meeting, though they are just 10-11-1 ATS. New Orleans has covered the last four times it has been a home favorite. Tampa Bay is 1-4 outright and 2-3 ATS against teams that finished with winning records. Since 2015, the under is 21-8 in Tom Brady starts with a total in the 50s (15-5 since 2017). New Orleans is 7-1 ATS and outright when Michael Thomas plays this season.  Drew Brees is 5-2 outright and ATS in his career against Brady. Brees’ 5-2 record is the best among 17 quarterbacks to face Brady at least five times. Man, that’s a lot of data backing both teams. So I’m pivoting. Saints/TB have gone over 4/5 in NO, TB/NO over 5/7 of late, and Tampa goes over 15/20 vs NFC. Saints have gone under 7/10 but who have they played? Broncos (the no QB game), Carolina, ATL x2, Philly, Niners, Bucs, Vikings, and Chiefs. Not many high powered offenses in there except the Chiefs, Vikings, and Bucs. But the 7 pt teaser makes this an EASY pick

2nd leg of teaser Bucs over 45

Last bet is a ML parlay as the last 2 weeks I’ve hit those. GB/Saints/Chiefs. I think the Saints are the biggest question mark in that equation but let’s cross your fingers.

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NFL Week 17 against the spread picks

Last week was a complete shitshow and probably the worst week I’ve had in YEARS. Lost the Hou teaser, AZ, GB under, Steelers under teaser, and Rams. Only thing I won was Buffalo for a total 1-5 week, dropping my total to 49-44 and that’s an all time low for me, 53% for the year. Goddamn, a shade above break even and we’re going to get up to 57% after the Superbowl, that’s my promise!

Goddamn, I said this since last week when the Skins lost. The Giants are winning this week. Yes, I know the Giants are 1-4 in last 5. Cowboys d allowed 30 points in half their games this year. Dallas 2-8 SU on the road, big shot but 5-2 ATS of late and 7-0 SU. Last game, Giants lost on a last second FG when they knocked Dak Prescott for the year and clown pussy head Andy Dalton led them down the field. Garbage weather today/tomorrow in north Jersey which plays right into the Giants hand. And of course, who knows Dallas better than the clapper himself, Jason Garrett. Giants just might win division or they may get the 3rd pick in the draft, it’s a hell of a swing.

First leg, Giants +7.5

It’s obvious the Texans have quit. Exhibit A: Brandon Allan 370 yds against the Texans defense. You gotta be shitting me, all they had to do is just win and I would’ve hit that teaser. Texans are 5-11 ATS of late, worst in NFL. I don’t care JJ Watt called everybody out; including Wade Phillips D cups.. Titans are 4-2 ATS of late and 13-6 SU. Titans are 6-13 ATS against Tenn and just got off of royal ass beating in GB. Derrick Henry is gonna run through defense like I ran through half of Terminal C before I had a diarrhea attack before a flight.

Second leg of teaser: Titans -1.5

The Niners have been trick for me to figure out. Niners 3rd down defense best in NFL, that’s pretty cool. Russ 14 giveaways last 10 games. Ok, there’s another trend. But San Fran 2-6 ATS of late and 2-6 SU. They’re also 1-6 ATS at home. Seattle 15-4 ATS against SF and 12-2 SU. Also, 5-1 SU of late. But here’s the problem, motivation. Seattle may pull everyone if and when GB beats the Bears for the #1 seed. And we know that Seattle d is soft, except when Jared Goff and the Rams can’t score from the 1 as well as Goff throwing a pick in the red zone. Kittle is back for the Niners and Beathard played well enough to beat the Cardinals. Teasing this baby up

Niners +13

Saints 5-9 in week 17s. All Saints RBS are out due to contact with Kamara. They must have been playing 2 minutes in the closet with each other, me-OW! Ty Johnson will be getting the start but that’s not going to get anyone’s clit hard. Saints 1-5 ATS against Carolina. Carolina 4-1 ATS of late and they’re playing hard for Matt Rhule. The Saints will be scoreboard watching and if GB gets up early and by a lot, those starters are coming right out. Nonetheless, I think the Panthers keep it close but let’s get that second leg of the teaser with

Teased to Car +11.5

Want an easy way to burn 30 minutes on Instagram. Just tap the search icon, that’s it. Hundreds of Vegas 9’s and above just waiting for you to click on their profile and eventually Only Fans page. And the Packers are looking as sexy as the NFC conference champion. Packers 9-1 SU in Chicago, 15-5 ATS against Chicago. Packers 18-7 ATS against Bears including last 3 covered. Bears have injuries in the secondary. 3.5 is a weird number and the Bears HATE the Packers. Plus, could the Bears backdoor this? Idk that but what I do know is the GB defense MAY get backdoored and especially if they go up early. So I’m going to do something I’ve yelled at others a million times for, a parlay. Gonna do GB money line parlay so I don’t have to worry about the 3.5, just win, baby.

KC Chiefs have a first round bye sewn up like Mitch McConnell’s turkey chin should be. He looks like a sad turtle and in the beginning stages of transitioning. Anyway, teams that have won home field throughout are 9-23 ATS in week 17. Chargers have covered 3 straight, Chiefs haven’t covered in 7. And by either magic, illusion, or blackmail, the Chargers players and ownership love Anthony Lynn. He’ll be playing for his job as well. But the Chargers can Charger themselves getting backdoored so here’s the other end of my money line parlay.

Philly 8-4 ATS as home dog. Wash 6-26 when Smith doesn’t play. 10-5 ATS when Smith plays. Philly 2-5 ATS of late, 1-6 SU. But 4-1 ATS at home. Skins 5-1 ATS of late but 2-5 ATS against Philly. This could be the end of Doug Peterson so I think Philly comes flying (sigh, fuck that song and the dummies who sing it) and plays hard. You also have Alex Smith probably out there for the Skins and he’s banged up. I think the Eagles keep it close and spoil the Skins, thus possibly helping out the Giants. But let’s give your ulcer and anus a LITTLE buffer and make Philly a double digit or near double digit dog. As much as I hate Philly, I want the Giants to get to the playoffs and I think if the Eagles lose, it won’t be in a blowout fashion as McLaurin is also questionable for Wash.

I did a 6.5 teaser and got Philly to 10

Dallas allows 5 yards a carry in awful weather. Under 6/6 for Giants, 4/5 at home. Giants don’t score points and they won’t be in the rain and cold tomorrow.

Second leg of the teaser is Giants under to 51

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NFL Super Bowl 2019 ATS picks

The Super Bowl is truly bittersweet for me.  On one end, this signifies the end of the NFL season.  It also signifies the end of the freeeeeee money printing press that’s been in my house since week 1.  Even though I went 1-2 last week, (took the Saints under but lost the teaser and KC under.  How the fuck did they beat me when the halftime score was 14-0 and the OU was 56?  Wow.) I’m still 60% (72/120) for the year.  That’s pretty damn solid, a high water mark for my career.  And for the finale of the season, I’m only taking the side in this game, I’m not sure about the total but I’m leaning under.  What I do have are 7 prop bets.  I’m not counting those against my W/L record for the season.  Here we go: 

What did we learn 2 weeks ago?  The rumor of the Pats death is greatly exaggerated.  Brady did what he does best, score with the opposing team giving him too much time.  Andy Reid is the worst clock manager, worse than any Jets head coach.  Fun fact, the Pats fans will travel to the game, Rams fans barely show up at home.  You think they’re getting on a 6 hour flight?  I don’t.  

The worst thing the Rams have going against the are the Pats lost to the Eagles last year.  Brady is looking to getting another ring before considering retirement.  He says he’s not but his abilities have definitely shown regression.  I’ll lay the load on Gronkowski retiring this season, ESPECIALLY if they win.  I always back up my handicaps with numbers: 4-1 SU in their last 5, 8-4 ATS.  5-0 SU vs the Rams, 5-1 ATS but to be fair, this was pre-McVay.  I will also say that after each of their first 2 Super bowl losses, they won their next appearance in the Super bowl.  Yes, the Super bowl dogs are 13-4 ATS and 6/7 winning outright.  Pats are not the bet in the Super bowl, 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS.  BUT the Pats are 8-0 against playoff teams this year.  How do you beat Brady?  Putting him on his back more than your mother.  Just ask my NY football Giants.  The Rams DO have those pass rushers in Suh and Donald who can get the QB.  But Brady faced ZERO pressure from the Chiefs who have a decent pass rush.  When was the last the Patriots bad loss?  Against the Titans…in October.  And the Chargers D got buttfucked with their zone defense against the Pats run.  So if the Rams are going to win, it’s because the D got Brady and maybe got a turnover or 2.

But remember, betting the NUMBER wins you games, not the team.  I jumped on this bet an hour after the AFC game was over but as of Sat night, it’s 2.5.  If you’re liking the Pats, jump on it now.  I did because when they do win, they barely win.  It’s less than a FG.  And Bellichick gets 2 weeks to prep for Jared Goff who was ok vs the Cowboys but good (especially in the 2nd half) vs the Saints.  The Pats players combined for over 60 Super Bowl games of experience.  The Rams?  2.  The newness/inexperience for the Rams players will put them at a disadvantage.  Oh yeah, Todd Gurley was AWFUL against the Saints.  He’s obviously pretty hobbled.  For the Patriots, this routine is as easy for them as Sunday morning, deflate balls, or tape other teams practices.  This is the last one for the Patriots.  It makes me sick having to bet them again but I might as well financially capitalize on them winning.  It will be the Rams’s time soon, just not yet.

I bet the Pats -1.5 

After Julian Edelman, who is Brady’s best pass catcher? James White by a landslide.  He had 15 catches vs the Chargers but 4 vs KC.  He had 97 yds vs LAC, 49 vs KC.  I just see them dinking and dunking against the Rams D.  They’re not stretching the field with the lack of deep threat and Brady’s arm is weaker.  So you can bet that White is getting his catches and yards.  And remember, he decimated the Falcons in the Superbowl 2 years ago with a 14 for 110 yds performance.

James White over 6 catches, James White over 52.5 receiving yards.

This game will be close so feel free to take YES on:

Game will be tied again after 0-0.  

Pats D combined 24 1Q points in their 8 Super bowl games.  Pats have scored 3 TOTAL points in those 8 first quarters.  Rams also push the pedal down in the 2nd half, not the first half.

1Q under 10.5

This happens nearly EVERY year.  Teams get looser after half time, break out the gadget plays.  MOST teams play it conservatively in the first half and defenses begin to tire in the second half.

More scores in the 2nd half than 1st, -.5

I know I said above that the Pats are notoriously SLOW starters with 3 pts in ALL of the first quarters in their Super bowl appearances.  For some reason, I think they’re going to slightly outscore the Rams early as the Rams will be a bundle of nerves, especially in the first quarter.

Pats -.5 in the 1Q

Julian Edelman in 7 of the last 11 over 79.5 yards.  In the playoffs, 10/12 over 79.5 receiving yards.  Roby-Fullman (the guy who popped the Saints WR where no PI was called) will be most likely covering Edelman.  Gronk won’t be getting the main passing yards and Hogan/Dorsett aren’t the big targets.  Definitely Brady’s security blanket, he didn’t play last year, and he missed 4 games this year.  He’ll want to make a name for himself this Superbowl.

Edelman over 82.5 yds

OVER National Anthem time.  People know the length via rehearsal, hence why it’s so high on over.

OVER 3 times I poop Monday morning from all of the awful food.  

UNDER 9 Tito’s and club.  I have to drive home and be responsible.  

OVER 8.5 times I say throughout the night that the next time I watch an NFL game will be in Vegas.

And if you’re wondering my box numbers, here they are:

Rams 5, Pats 8

Rams 4, Pats 8

Rams 8, Pats 0

Rams 3, Pats 1

Rams 9, Pats 1

Rams 1, Pats 0

Rams 2, Pats 5

Rams 0, Pats 4

Good luck in the last game of the year.  The next time I’m betting football, I’ll be in Vegas. And I hope you are too.

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NFL Championship Weekend ATS picks

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This photo has nothing to do with gambling or the NFL, I’m just excited for a Public Enemy/Wu-Tang tour.

law of av·er·ag·es

noun  

  1. the principle that supposes most future events are likely to balance any past deviation from a presumed average.

 

Here’s what happened last week: The law of averages saw Kevin the Kraut doing 155 

mph in a sleek, red Ferrari on the turnpike with his winning ways.  LOA turns on the 

sirens and pulls over KTK, telling him he needs to slow down. “Slow down?? I will do no 

such thing!” Except I didn’t say that to LOA, I just thought it. “Yes sir, I’ll slow down.  

Thanks for the warning, officer.”  And what happens?  You pull away slowly, staying 

within the speed limit until the officer pulls out and speeds away.  And what do we all

do then?  Fucking floor it.  And that’s what we’re going to do, floor it.  2 more weeks to 

print money, let’s get it.

 

2-2 last week.  Dallas over and KC under both came home.  Unfortunately, both horseface

Andrew Luck lallygagged the shit out of the game.  Did you see him on 4th and goal with

:06 left?  Didn’t get the line set and the game was over.  He took his sweet ass time with a

chance to push the cover but even before that, had his worst game of the year.  He gets a

pass for being rock solid all year long.  Saints didn’t cover either but at least they took out

the garbage from Philly.  71/117 on the year,  61% for the year.  Still rocking and rollin’,

baby.  

 

Lock of the week: one more teaser for the year.  I’ve told you all year long, the Saints are

winning the Superbowl.  They’re insanely great at home, 30 ppg at home except last

week. Yes, Drew Brees looked off last week.  But you know what wasn’t off?  That

defense.  The Saints can run and stop the run.  Saints are 10-5 of late but 1-5 in the last 6.  

Saints at home against the Rams are both 4-2 ATS and SU.  The problem for the Rams is

Goff.  He has 11 TDs and 10 INTs on the road.  The Rams O-line and run game beat Dallas,

Goff didn’t.  Gurley is obviously banged up, CJ Anderson had more carries last week.  

They’re not going to run against the Saints like they did Dallas.  Goff last 3 vs playoff

teams ZERO TDs and 5 INTs.  Obviously, McVay doesn’t trust Goff either as Goff passed 28

times and the ball was run 48 times.  Wow.  You know the Saints in the last 8 games have

the 6th ranked DVOA on defense and 7th for offense?  Lastly, in the last 8 games, the

Saints are giving up  14 ppg.  Big improvement since when they had morbidly obese Rob

Ryan and his mullet in charge of defense.   I said it before and I’ll say it again, Drew Brees 

has one more Superbowl run left in him.  And we’re going to ensure it happens by…

 

Teasing the Saints to +3

 

The Patriots are on the road for the first time in a long time.  I’m sure you’ve seen the 

meme that Mark Sanchez has more road wins than Brady.  Much like Goff last week, 

Brady didn’t win that game…his rushing attack did.  Yes, he dumped off to James White a 

ton but he wasn’t throwing it downfield.  The rushing attack gashed the Chargers and 

didn’t have to force Brady to make a bunch of key throws.  The Pats are 2-5 ATS vs KC but

4-2 ATS in KC.  However, here’s the KEY number: Pats are 1-5 SU in KC.  The KC defense

got me believing in them after they made the Colts look like mares last week.  The only

thing that  scares me is that despite last week, the Chiefs are dead last against the run.  

Now let’s get back on the good side of the Chiefs argument.  Although the Chiefs D is

suspect, they average 17 ppg at home, 34 away.  Eric Berry is questionable and may come

back on defense.  If the Chiefs can bottle up the Pats like they did with the Colts, they can

get the monkey off of Andy Reid’s back.  And we all know during conference

championship weekend that home teams are undefeated the last 10 games.  No teams

has won a Superbowl having played a road game in the playoffs.  More bad news for the

Patriots, Tom Brady’s yards per attempt are sincerely in the dumps.  When Josh Gordon

was on the team and probably smoking tons of weed, Brady had 7.6 yards per attempt.  

Without Gordon, Brady has a 5.6 YPA.  That puts him DEAD LAST in the NFL without

Gordon.  If the Pats can’t run the ball successfully, they’re in trouble.  Last stat: the

Patriots have failed to meet expectations while on the road by a combined 74 points

which is 9 PPG.  Remember, they were 3-5 ATS on the road this year.  And the wins they

had were a bit lucky: the Bears game, the pick 6 against Buffalo, and the Jets game where

the Jets were driving and got to the Pats 6 yd line.  I know betting against the Pats is

usually not a profitable adventure.  But these aren’t the Pats we know and old man Brady

is ready to start going to the movies at 2pm, be in bed by 7:30, and be a lot more

comfortable using racial slurs. 

 

Second half of teaser Chiefs +3

 

Pats under 4/5 on the road, Chiefs are under 11/14.  It’s not going to be as cold as

everyone thought it was going to be, it will be a balmy 24 degrees.  I think that there will

be points but too many as the Pats will be mostly running that ball or relying on the

dump off passes to White.  Of course, the Chiefs are able to score a TD in 3 minutes or

less.  So let’s cross our fingers and hope the score goes…

Under 54.5

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