Week 12 NFL picks against the spread

4-3 last week as GB smoked that over to put me above .500 for the week.  Let’s give a shoutout to that Jacksonville coach, fuckwad Doug Marrone, as he decided erase all good karma by throwing the the ball deep in Jax territory with little time left on the clock in the 4th quarter in a tied game.  Common sense would have had him run out the clock so they can get to OT.  Jacksonville had a nice comeback, tying it up from down 13 and then watched my money disappear like Rob Schneider’s career as Phil Dawson kicked a 57 yd fg to seal it for the Cardinals.  Indy lost by .5 as they gave up a late TD and blew a decent lead.  However, the Pats cruised to the over as the aforementioned GB/Pitt over.  The Niners hung tight for awhile but Russell Wilson poured it on late.  The Bengals did smoke the Browns like I foresaw as well.  Do I go back to the well with the Jags?  Read on and find out.  BTW, I took the Skins on Thursday night and Kirk Cousins went Kirk Cameron on me.  Praying for something good to happen and it never did.  Now THAT’S how you write a joke.  So I’m 0-1 to start the week.  Also, I put down money on the Saints to win the NFC championship at 6-1 odds.  Wish me luck.

Short answer, yep.  And as sad as this is going to sound, I have Blake Bortles going for me to determine if I get a first round bye in fantasy football.  You’re probably asking yourself if I’m throwing the game so I don’t get the bye by starting Bortles and I would too if the shoe was on the other foot.  Problem is, I drafted Eli Manning very late and then dropped him for Alex Smith who played out of his mind for nearly 2 months.  Then Alex Smith started looking like Alex Trebek for too long.  My buddy snaked Case Keenum off the wire so I was left with Bortles or Gabbert.  So cross your fingers that Bortles eviscerates the Indy defense which resembles Jenna Jameson’s butthole.  Let’s cross your toes and tongue that Marquis Lee and Leonard Fournette also have good days for your favorite sports handicapper.  The Jags are 5-0 ATS vs Indy and that should be all you need to know.  Ok, another nugget.  Indy is 2-4 ATS on the road.  The Jags losing in such an ugly fashion should be the perfect time to take them in the bounce back to put them smack in the middle of the division race.  

Take the Jags -9.5

What can you say about the Patriots that hasn’t been said, especially the cheating and shitty fans elements?  But give the White Devil his due, Bellichek is a covering machine and this week, those rapscallions are in Buffalo which is almost another home game for them.  Pats are recently 5-0 ATS, 7-1 on the road, and 4-1 in Buff.  Buffalo recently 2-4-1, 2-4-1 vs the Pats, and 2-10-1 home vs NE.  In the last month, Buffalo has put up over 20 2x but both when they were getting blown out in garbage time.  Buffalo has no WR and the Pats D has improved of late.  I don’t see much going for the Bills except a lot of, “wait till next decade” talk.

Take the Pats -9

Minnesota has been on one hell of a cinderella ride this year, despite losing their rookie RB, Dalvin Cook, and riding the coattails of a QB named Case.  Seriously, who names their kid, Case?  I hope his parents finished the joke and named his brother, Closed.  Wacka, wacka, wacka.  The Vikes had 10 days off after dismantling the Lions to prep for the Falcons who have had a mild resurgence.  I think that the Vikings being 15-8 on the road and Atlanta 1-3-1 vs Minny should be good enough reasons to take the Purple team this week.  I also like the over and the numbers back it up: Minn is 4/5 hitting the overs and hit 5/7 of them on the road.  Falcons have put up 30+ 3 times this year but don’t expect them to replicate that against a solid Vikes D.  

Take the Vikings +3 and the over 47

The Lions were smoked last week and now they head to Baltimore, who couldn’t cover against the hapless Texans.  Matt Stafford looked like he ate John Madden before the game on Thanksgiving so I think they play better.  Baltimore doesn’t inspire confidence at home, as they’re 2-4 ATS.  And Detroit of late is 2-4-1 ATS.  But I tell you what jumps out at me, the over.  Detroit has been hot with the over of late, 6/7 and 4/6 vs Bal.  The Ravens have recently hit the over 5/7.  So let’s see if backwards hat Matt Stafford can put up enough to hit and Joe Flacco puts up his usual pick 6 so we can hit…

The over 43.5

The lock of the week was easier than all of your mothers this week.  Yep, 41 years old and not afraid to drop a, “your mother” joke in there.  This isn’t the NY Times, folks.  The Saints lost a tough one in LA last week and now they’re back to home, sweet home.  When the Saints are home and have a winning record, they’re 17-3-1 out of their last 21.  Holy.  Christ.  Saints are 4-0-1 vs Carolina while the Panthers are 2-4 in NO.  Saints are recently 6-3 ATS and now after a loss?  Yeah, they’re fired up and playing Carolina who A) got lucky that the Jets went FULL Jets and gave up a late lead AGAIN.  Oh yeah, Carolina backdoored the cover with a late FG.  Olsen is banged up again and Cam didn’t play well against the Jets.  I just see the #Pangeabirthmarkface demolishing the Panthers at home and really no other way around it.  I kind of like the over but I don’t know if Carolina will put up their end to cover.  Although the last 2 times these teams played in NO, they combined for 79 points BOTH times.  

Love the Saints -5 and maybe the over 48.  

I kind of like:

The Jets to bounce back +3.  KC had a tough time in Giants Stadium last week and the Jets play well as home dogs.

LAC -13 getting revenge for the Browns beating them last year.

Rams -7 in AZ.  Do you think Blaine Gabbert keeps this up, even though they’re home again?  I doubt it.

Niners +3 who are 4-2 on the road while the Bears are 0-4 ATS at home as favorites.

Detroit +3 who has had 10 days to prep against a team who has played nothing but backup QBs in their last stretch.  Bal 2-4 ATS at home as well.

TB over 45.  Jameis Winston is back so I’m laying off this.  The line opened GB +2 but the pros jumped on that immediately and now is GB -2.5

 

 

Week 12 NFL picks

Sorry for no column last weekend, I had an insanely packed Saturday with the Comics Watching Comics taping on Saturday while family came up for a belated birfday celebration on Sunday.  But if you follow me and my cookie eating machine (She ate a CWC cookie last week), you’ll see that I killed it!  I hit Tenn over on Thursday night to start off the week with an easy win as that was clinched in the 3rd quarter.  I hit Philly, Baltimore, Minnesota and the under, and the Saints over.  I lost KC (fucking Giants dicked me again when getting double digits), SD under (Peterman throwing FIVE picks didn’t help), and the Houston under.  I also hit the Seattle over on monday night, giving me a SOLID 7-3 record last week.  I took SD under on Thanksgiving and nailed that one with ease so we’re starting off the week 1-0.  Hot hand in the dice game, baby doll!  Talk about 6 hours straight!  Clickety, clickety, clack!   Now name that reference.

I missed definitely 1, even 2 bets last week.  I should’ve went with the Pats and the under like my gut said to because the Pats stayed in Denver to maintain the high elevation conditions to prep for Mexico City.  And by prepping for conditions, I mean put your money in your shoes and carrying a burner cell phone.  I knew the Raiders weren’t doing that and boy, did it show.  But I like to bet trends and here are a few for you:  The Pats are 5/7 covering the overs at home.  The Pats are 4/6 covering the overs when playing Miami.  And Miami is perfect in the over department in their last 5.  Matt Moore will be chasing points like Kevin Spacey chasing nerd boys in a Gamestop.  48 is an easy number for both teams to hit.

Take the Pats over 48

Pittsburgh has 10 days to prepare for the DOA Green Bay Packers.  This game SHOULD be out of hand early and this number is so low that Pitt may be able to cover it themselves.   For the last month and change, the Packers D has given up 20+ points in all but one game.  The only question is can GB score enough points as in that same timeframe as they’ve put up 20+ points…one time.  They’ve also been shut out once in that span (Lock of the week last week was Baltimore folks but then again, if you follow me on FB, you know that).  GB has hit the over on the road 7/8.  Pitt though, has hit the under 8/10.  GB women are 0/10 when it comes to hitting the under of 215 lbs.  I just think 43 is too low and GB will be chasing points late.  Can you see Pitt winning this 35-10?  I can.  And if so, that’s a winner. 

Take GB over 43

Jacksonville got one of the luckiest covers last week against the Browns when they stripped the ball from Kizer late and ran it in for a DTD.  The last time Cleveland had their hearts ripped out of them like this was the previous Sunday.  And the Sunday before that.  And the Sunday before that.  Jacksonville is 9-4 ATS and 7-1 on the road.  Now they fly to sunny Arizona where the only thing the Cardinals fans have to look forward to is ASU sorority girls on a scavenger hunt during pledge season.  AZ is 2-7-1 out of their last 10 and 1-3-1 at home.  What’s Jacksonville’s biggest weakness?  Run D.  And who is the biggest “threat” on AZ?  Old ass Adrian Peterson who aside from one stellar week has done less than SNL writers writing something else besides a Trump joke.  Acquiring Marcel Darius was the best thing for Jax as the yds per carry for opposing RBs has drastically dropped since Buffalo gave him away like a cuckholded husband gives away his wife.  And remember, BLAINE GABBERT IS THE QUARTERBACK.  No way that top tiered Jax pass D lets up anything in the air.  Especially from a guy named Blaine.

You’ll thank me when you take the Jags -5

The battle of bad accents, bad fashion, and bad driving (Ohio) is this weekend and the winner is truly the loser because it’s Ohio.  Cleveland ALMOST covered for a bunch of you but then went full Cleveland Steamer when they fumbled and Jax returns that fumble for a TD.  But Cincy has been a covering machine of late: 16 points over margin over their last 6 games as well as 6-0 ATS.  Cincy 5-0 ATS vs Cleveland.  Browns are 1-8 ATS and 0-4-1 on the road.  I know 7.5 is a tricky number but this game can easily be 20-10.

The Bengals continue to make the Browns scratching their heads and counting down until Josh Gordon returns, take Cincy -7.5

After watching Seattle’s hopes get crushed by a late FG attempt falling short on monday night, I think they’re done.  Their defense looks more trampled than Tera Patrick’s pussy. A short work week, ZERO running game, and now they’re on the road in SF.  The Niners are fresh off a bye and have a little pep in their step after destroying the Giants 2 weeks ago.  The Seahawks beat the Niners with a late FG to win 12-9 in SEATTLE.  What makes me think they’re gonna do it on the road?  Nothing.  “DEAD MAN WALKING!”

Take the NAWWWNERS +6.5

 

Week 7 NFL Picks

The NFL is by far the hardest league to consistently pick winners.  The best handicappers are 55% and your boy is currently 54% for the year.  Who the fuck would’ve thought Denver would’ve lost OUTRIGHT to the Giants?  That screwed a ZILLION people (hand in the air) in their suicide pools.  And who would’ve even contemplated the Falcons would lost OUTRIGHT  to the Dolphins.  At home.  After a bye?  Jesus H Christ, this gets zany.  Oh wait, let’s talk about this past Thursday’s Oak/KC game?  Chiefs laying 3 but the Raiders drive the field late.  Raiders on the 1 and then get called for pass interference, back em up 10 more yards.  Time for just one more play and what happens next is just stupid: Carr throws incomplete but hold on, defensive holding.  Can’t end the game on a defensive penalty so here we go again.  Another incomplete pass but deja vu inserts itself with ANOTHER KC defensive holding penalty.  Carr gets one last shot at redemption and the third time is the charm as he finds Crabtree for the TD.  Point after is good, Oakland wins by 1.  If you had KC (I had the under, that shit was toast by the middle of the 3rd quarter), you developed an ulcer.  If you had the Raiders, you must have been balls deep in a leprechaun while Kate Upton motorboated you at the same time.  And if you plan on motor boating Kate, do it soon as she’s going to hit the wall in about 3-5 years.  She has Anna Nicole Smith part 2 written all over her.

3-3 last week so a push for the week sans the vigs.  As I mentioned, I took the Oak under and lost so it puts me at 0-1 this week.  Let’s right this ship with some winners.

Can you make an argument how the Colts can win or cover 3 against the Jags.  Me neither and that’s why I really like Jacksonville in Indy this week. Fournette hasn’t practiced all week but they’re saying he still may go.  And even if he doesn’t, I’m still confident that D can shut down the Dolts.  Ivory is very capable of gashing that awful defense.  Some numbers to back up my statement, sure.  Jax is 6-3 ATS in their last 9, 5-1 on the road, and 4-1 ATS vs Indy.  Sound good?  I think so too.

I like the Jaguars -3

Deshone Kizer is back behind center.  I think Cleveland has had more quarterbacks in the last 20 years than Jenna Jameson has taken dicks on camera.  Cleveland has put up over 20 ONE time this year.  Tennessee has put up over 20 3/6 times this year.  Cleveland has a pretty good defense.  Can you see this game 24-21?  Best case scenario, which is great because the under is 46.  And let’s end this handicap with one last statement.  Cleveland has gone under at home the last 5/5.  Good enough for me…

To take the under 46

One of the bets I didn’t put in that I should have was taking the Bears getting 6 against the dumpster fire Ravens.  Those same Ravens now travel to Minnesota who admittedly are a bit banged up on WR.  Diggs is out and Michael Floyd left early in last week’s game. But the Vikings have a rock solid D and (Mike Francesa voice), “Let’s be honest, ok?  I’d ratha see the new Madea Halloween movie than trust Joe Flacco on the road, ok?  Here’s da Mink Man, back afta dis.”  Balt 3-7 ATS out of their last 10 and Minn 4-1 ATS at home.  Sometimes the best bets are the ones that require the least amount of thought.

Take the Vikings -5.5

Green Bay plays at home against the Saints who have been lighting it up when it comes to the over, home or away.  GB has also been a lock for the over at home.  But let’s bring up 3 facts:  The Saints have an improved (could it have gotten worse?) defense.  I mean, we’re still used to see a Saints defense getting exposed like a freshman sorority girl, begging for beads on Bourbon Street.  They gave up 38 last week but 2 of which were a pick or ST TD.  The previous week, they held the Panthers to 13.  But 2 weeks before, they shut out Miami (NBD, I get it).  Next which is the obvious, no Aaron Rodgers. And finally, the forecast calls for a good amount of rain leading into game time.  Is Brett Hundley going to put points up?  In the rain?  Against an average defense?  He did throw 3 in Minn last week.  I’m going to monitor this one solely based on the weather and IF the rain does indeed come through, I’m taking.

GB under 47

I like mixing up routines, vacation spots, and when I was single, women.  But now the few constants I love are steak, teams that stick to their trends, and winning free money from said trends.  That being said, let’s investigate another routine which I exploited a couple of weeks ago with the Jags.  The Rams have been to London several times already.  They stayed in Florida this week to prep for their trip across the pond.  They had some great fluky TDs against the Jags last week (one of my winners) and now they’re 3.5 point favorites against the Cardinals.  Cards just blew the doors off of an awful Bucs D and Jameis Winston’s shoulder.  They brought in the smartest (on paper) QB, Fitzpatrick, who is everyone’s favorite guy to bet against and he actually cut the lead down with the help of a pick 6.  But the Bucs lost (one of my losers) so the Cards got off the schneid.  I barely trust Carson Palmer and if you think I trust him when his body clock is 8 hours off schedule, you’re insane.  This game gets ugly, like the Brits’ smiles and food creations.

Take the Rams -3.5

AFC Central matchup this week, Bengals vs Steelers.  Or as I call it, two towns of women that resemble a grilled cheese sandwich with Rosie O Donnell’s face.  Bengals off the bye and the Steelers are home after stealing one in Kansas City with an amazing circus TD catch and run for Antonio Brown.  The line is MUCH too high for a division game, as these games are usually decided by a FG.  The history is against Cincy in Pitt but 5.5 is just too much; especially since the Bengals have gotten their shit together recently offensively as well as always having a decent D.  And I’m also quite inclined to take the under as Cincy/Pitt have been so 7/8 last times in Pitt.  Cincy also has been under 5/6 on the road.  But I’m waiting to see till tomorrow (this article was written on Saturday night) how that line moves.  However, I’ve already locked in…

Cincy +5.5

Here are a few games that I’m debating about taking tomorrow but seeing how the line moves:

Pitt under, SF, Denver, Pats and over, 

 

NFL Picks week 6

3-4 last week, first losing week since week 1.  Bad week but not “new Wu-Tang album: bad.  

Tangent: Jesus, it’s like the Wu Tang doesn’t even try anymore.  We can all admit ODB was the glue that held them together, right?  Their solo works are fine but as a group; it’s like one leg of Devastor (Transformers reference.  I could’ve made a Voltron reference but I have standards. Sorry, not sorry, you commoners) is missing and he moves like a kid with polio trying to dance without his braces.  I know we all wish for our bands to reunite that have broken up due to death or hatred for other bandmates.  Sometimes you  can recapture the lightning in the bottle like Stone Temple Pilots, Alice in Chains, or Dead Kennedys.  But be careful what you wish for because you can easily get Guns N Roses with Buckethead, Misfits with Jerry Only as the lead singer, Van Halen with Gary Cherone, or Motley Crue with John Corabi

Here’s why gambling is both great and willing to give you a coronary at a moment’s notice.  I took the Minnesota under, 44, on monday night.  What’s the score at the half?  3-2.  Yep, you read that right.  30 minutes later I check again, they are 30 points in the game.  WHAT?? Look again 5 minutes later, 37 total points with 10 minutes left.  Jesus Christ, I could lose this game.  Then Chicago and the Vikings go back doing what they do best, do their best to get their coaches fired and not score.  The under hits, and your hero closes the loss margin to end the week.

This week is so chock full of huge spreads that Meredith Markovits may bust in like the Kool Aid man and start emptying trays down her horse face.  Taking a favorite with a big spread is like fucking without a rubber in the dark.  There are times where you catch pocket aces and get lucky with a good looking lady but more often than not; you get caught with a Lena Dunham lookalike who has a vicious case of anal warts.  So buyer beware on the big spreads and you better be damn sure that you want to lay double digits.  Let’s get to the picks!

My favorite team is the NY Giants and let’s call it how we see it.  I’ll see more life in Terry Schaivo than I will the Giants in Denver.  Let’s see who’s out: their star WR who does his best Simon Phoenix impression.  Hair, not bad ass-ness.  Their bi-polar WR and their slot WR.  Oh yeah, the center, starting LB and DE too.  And you think they’re going to come into Denver with a offense that makes the kids at an all Jewish school look like the 2000 St Louis Rams score points?  I don’t.  I know I just read you the riot act about taking big spreads (See, a literary curveball!) but when the obvious is right in your face like Hillary Clinton’s awful laugh, take the wallet out!  The Giants aren’t scoring and if they do, it’s because Goodell implemented a mercy rule overnight.  Denver is off the bye and oh yeah, 10-3-1 ATS.  And Den has hit been under in 4/6 at home. Denver could run this shit up and hit the over themselves so be careful about the under.  Lay the points and hope Mcadoo gets run over by the Denver Bronco horse.

I love Den -11.5 and kind of like the under at 39.  

The Rams travel to the white trash venus trap known as Jacksonville.  The Rams had 4 trips to the red zone last week vs Seattle to walk away with just 3 points and even had a chance to win in the last minute.  I say they gain redemption as the Jags are 2-5 at home ATS.  Rams are 6-2 SU in their last 8 and that bodes well as they’re getting 2.5 in Jax.

Take the Rams +2.5

The Patriots have had 10 days off to prep after they barely beat TB.  And the most dangerous thing the Pats can have is time to do is prep.  Oh yeah, Gronk is back too. The Jets are playing well and the Pats D is still rhino poop.  I can’t figure out if the Pats are gonna cover but I can tell you that they’ll be points a plenty.  

Take the Pats over 48

The Saints are back home from a bye after winning a stinkaroo in London against the Dolphins.  The Saints are 5-0 ATS after a bye and won 10 straight in October.  They’re 5-2 ATS vs Detroit.  Stafford is a bit banged up and Detroit doesn’t put up points on the road.  Don’t be a hero, just win money.  This is going to be as easy as betting on Harvey Weinstein vs a plant.

Take the Saints -4.5

Lastly, the Bucs travel to play a Cardinals team who looks as uninspiring as a new Amy Schumer special.  Bucs have had 10 days to prep after shitting the bed against the Pats (Again, fuck you Nick Folk) to play a Cardinals team that’s 1-5 ATS at home.  Winston and the boys look to avenge the beating they got last year in the desert so look for redemption.

Take the Bucs -1.5

 

Week 3 NFL picks

It’s amazing what a changes in a week.  I started out this NFL season 0-5 with the picks.  Last week, 6-1.  The only loss was my lock of the week, of course.  Seattle BARELY beat an awful Niners team but didn’t cover.  The other big spread was Oak vs Jets and the Raiders gave the Jets the old East Rutherford chicken cutlet.  It’s been a weird season thus far.  Giants and the Jets are a bad 0-2 while the Chargers are a good 0-2, as they missed 2 kicks which EASILY puts them at 1-1 and probably 2-0.  

I started out this week 0-1 as I along with 2328975902357 other people took the under in the Rams/Niners Thursday night game.  They had 21 points in the first quarter and ended up dropping 70 fucking points??!!!!  When was the last time TNF had an over, let alone a blowout?  Thankfully, I didn’t lay the load on that.  Onto the picks and hopefully more…FREEEEE MONEY!

The Pats were an easy pick for me last week but this week, 14 is a shit ton of points.  Can they win by 14?  Probably but since my asshole bookie doesn’t take money lines, I’m not touching that.  But the over 44 gets me tumescent.  Some stats why I like this pick: Over has hit for NE 5/5, 4/5 at home, 7/9 when the Pats play the Texans, and 4/5 when the Pats play Houston at home.  Gronk and Amendola are both a go.  NE doesn’t have a great d anymore so the Texans can put up easily 14 points.  And we know Houston D isn’t what it was because Jax gashed them.  Pats probably cover but I’m taking

Pats Over 44

I’d rather have the Carolina Tar Heels on offense than the Carolina Panthers.  Panthers have 32 points in 2 games, nothing special.  But they do have a defense that’s as forgiving as the bank on a late mortgage payment.  Who comes into town this week?  One of the worst road teams in the last 10 years, the New Orleans Saints.  I trust M Night Shamalayan to make a good film before I trust the Saints on the road.  The Saints are now getting 5.5 points.  But the Saints defense is hot horseshit.  Can the Saints put bust through that defensive wall to point up points?  But can Carolina, sans Greg Olsen, cover against the spread?  I have no idea but we do have another option.  Some stats for you to swish around in your mouth and spit into a bucket: Saints under hit 11/14 in Carolina.  Carolina under has hit the last 5/6 and at home, under has hit 4/5.  Hence why I REALLY LIKE:

The under 46.5

The NFL goes back to merry old London and the Jaguars are the NFL de facto home team over there.  Drawing the short straw and playing them are the Baltimore Ravens.  And “lucky” for everyone watching at home, the only way to watch this game is via stream.  Way to go CBS, as if you don’t jam enough commercials down our throats during the game, you’re not going to air something so I can eat some Cinnamon Toast Crunch while my daughter looks up from the iPad and yells out, “Daddy, ball!  Daddy, juice*”  *Denotes beer.  Normally, I would be all over the under but 39 allows for very little wriggle room, as last thursday night’s debacle proved.  But Jax getting demolished last week and Bal being 2-0 AND sandwiched in between division games is going to make a case for me this week.  Balt is 2-6 on the road ATS and 1-5 while playing Jax.  Balt is 1-3-1 when playing on the road against Jax.  But I think this can be the biggest “home” game for Jax as this is their 5th straight game in London.  They’re used to the surroundings, have down their routines, etc.  And they’re getting 3 points?  AND the numbers back me up?  You won’t hear me say this often but 

Give me the Jags +3

Denver is playing in Buffalo.  Both have great defenses and so-so offenses.  Denver has gone under 5/7 on the road.  Other numbers show the over is the play but they go back 6 or 7 games which puts this several years back.  You know, when Denver had a offense.  Buffalo this year has combined for 24 points.  Denver has put up points but I don’t see that happening against a good defense and at 1pm.  Listening to my gut and my eyes, despite little wriggle room.

Denver under 39

I cannot believe I’m caring about this game but when the numbers support it, I have no choice.  The Browns are a road FAVORITE for the first time in 2 years.  Either the bookies know something we don’t but the Browns giving points to ANYONE should be flagged.  I don’t see this line staying at Cle -1 but if you can get it before it becomes a pick em, do it.  Indy is 7-1 SU against the Browns and the Browns are 0-4-1 on the road.  But again, I’m not trusting either teams.  I’m trusting these numbers: Cleveland has gone under 5/6 vs Indy.  Indy is 5/5 at home with the under and 4 out of their last 6 have been under.  This game is more under than Crocodile Dundee.  Wacka, Wacka, Wacka.  (Shoots self in the face)

Take the under 42.5

The sharps are all OVER the Bengals.  They LOVE how they fired their offensive coordinator. I was recently in Cincinnati, the only thing to love about that town is the Reds ballpark followed by leaving that town.  I’m SHOCKED that the sharps love the Bengals so much that the line has dropped from 9 to 7.5.  Did they miss Jordy Nelson practiced in full?  Did they see the Packers get smoked sunday night?  Hope you had the over like I told you to.  Do you think GB is going to rebound, at home where they’re 5-0 ATS?  I do.  GB 8-3 ATS while Cincy is 2-5-1 on the road.  Cincy also 6-12-2 ATS in their last 20.  Head to head numbers? GB 5-2 ATS vs Cincy.  Will Cincy get it together?  Maybe.  But not this week.  Death, taxes, and GB at home.

GB takes a skyline chili influenced dump on Cincy and covers -7.5

Arizona came back to win but not cover against Indy.  I hope you had Indy like I told you to.  I think they’re home with a good D and Dallas D getting gashed by Denver equals an AZ cover but go heavier on the under.  Want a good laugh?  Watch Ezekiel try and tackle.  MANIACAL LAUGH.  Dal is 2-7 in their last 9 ATS.  Dallas went under 11/14 on the road.  AZ 4-1 ATS vs Dal and 4-2 at home when playing Dallas.  The under has hit 4/6 times when these 2 square off.  AZ has had the under hit 9/12 at home.  Tons of numbers to back my predictions of: 

AZ +3 and under 47.

The lock of the week can also be also said as such: Death, taxes, and never Pitt on the road.  7.5 is a lot but I’m not ready to trust Mike Glennon.  Yes, Jordan Howard is playing and practiced in full on friday.  But Pitt has a great defense.  And oh yeah, Mike Glennon. I don’t see the Bears putting up points and I don’t see Pitt lighting up the scoreboard either.  Which is why I’m going with yet again,

The under 44

Some quick hits for other games I MAY take, depending how I do

KC and SD over, the Jets +6, and Oak -3

Last week, 6-1

This week 0-1 (Rams under)

YTD 6-6

Week 17 NFL Picks ATS

107271

 

Rough week last week, worst since week 2 but let’s bounce back in a big way.  Sorry for the delay but most of these games are going on now with a few 4pm games.  Tough week for picks because of most of the playoff seeds are determined so more over/unders

I took the Colts -4.5 against Jax and as of now, not looking good against the Jags.  They’re currently down, 17-0.  I figured that Jax got their win out of the way last week with a new coach, Indy’s at home, let’s roll the dice.  Public kicked that line up to 6 by kickoff.

Also locked in the Pats/Miami over 46.  Pats are all over them with a few minutes left in the first half, 20-0 so that over looks to be relatively on track so far.

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My lock of the week is Cle/Pitt under 42.  Pitt is resting everyone and Cle can barely score with all of the 1’s out there.  That score is 14-0 with a few minutes left in the half so I feel confident with that one.  

The Saints are in Atl and Atl is still fighting for a 1st rd bye.  The o/u is 56.5 which is insanely high.  I grabbed the Saints +7.5 because they can definitely match scores with the Falcons and I think the extra .5 will help.

Lastly, I took the KC/SD under 44.5.  Chiefs might have spend their load last week in that offensive outburst last week against Den.  The last 4/5 games played by SD were unders and the last 4/5 games that SD played KC were also unders.  Good enough for me.

 

Fantasy football draft #3 recap

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Last one folks, hope you’ve enjoyed my analyses on my picks and you’ve taken a nugget or 3 for your own drafts.  My final draft occurred on 8/25

Team name: I say NAAAWWWNE, ok?  Back afta dis….

So if you’re not into NY sports talk radio, you won’t know that’s a Mike Francesa reference.  Or you make think that’s a Sour Shoes reference in which it can be but know that he’s goofing on Fatcesa.  TURN MY MIC AWN!

And in this draft, I had pick #1.  I fucking hate pick number 1 unless it’s a year where you have a NO-BRAINER #1 pick.  I’m talking Ladanian  Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk, or Jerry Rice, or Barry Sanders in their prime. Because there are multiple ways to fuck this pick up and you will make yourself sick trying NOT to screw it up.  And you are waiting a LONG time in between picks so you are forced to sometimes to take a player that you wanted to wait on just a little while later but know that there’s no way they’re coming back.  Or there may be a run on RBs or WRs and you feel the pressure to plug a spot.

1st Pick: I doubled down on Antonio Brown again because he’s the closest thing to one of those “no doubt” number ones.

2nd pick: LeSean McCoy: He owes me a season after his last mess with the Eagles.  And as I mentioned above, there was a run on RBs so I felt I had to grab one now or get stuck with a Jeremy Langford/Frank Gore as a number 1 RB.  He should bounce back and no more Karlos Williams to steal carries.  A healthy Tyrod Taylor and Sammy Watkins will make this a pretty nice offense.

3rd pick: Keenan Allen: I could’ve tripled down on Amari Cooper but I’m leery of going in all in with a player in all 3 leagues.  That guy gets injured and ka-plooey!  Even though he’s only my #2 WR, I still didn’t want to gamble.  Besides, Allen and Cooper are 6 and 1/2 dozen.  Allen was CRUSHING it until he got a shot to the kidneys.  He’ll be back with similar or even better numbers.

4th pick: Jarvis Landry: Couldn’t believe my eyes when this beaut fell into my lap.  And there were some questionable picks this round: CJ Anderson (who never lives up to expectations) Eric Decker (too early for him) and Matt Forte (also a little early for an injury risk compounded with a crowded backfield).  This makes it yet again, a SICK WR trio for my teams.  He and OBJ have a bet to see who gets more yds and tds so that will definitely play into my favor…

5th pick: Jordan Reed: Also couldn’t believe my eyes that this guy was available.  Experts had him going late 2nd-early 3rd.  At the beginning of the 5th, I got INSANE value for him.

6th pick: Chris Ivory: You know why he’s on Jax?  Because TJ Yeldon sucked.  You know who’s already starting preseason games? Chris Ivory.  And it’s not going to be 21-0 at the end of the first for Jax anymore, they’ve shored up their defense.  So that means more running and not as much passing for the Pan Handle faithful…

7th pick: Ameer Abdullah: He must get harassed by TSA quite often with a name like that…Rough rookie year, fumbled all over the joint and was left behind.  He’s starting this year again and let’s see if he holds onto the ball.  Experts say 7th round was the right time so I pulled the trigger. Besides, he’s my #3 RB or flex so I’m not married to him by any stretch.

8th pick: Tom Brady: Yet again, the 8th round I get him and yet again, I get value for him.  It’s going to pain me to root for a Patriot but remember: Cash moves everything around me, CREAM! Get the money, dolla dolla bill, y’all.  I was looking to get Sterling Shepard this round but I got snaked 3 picks in front of me by a buddy who is a Giants fan.

9th pick: Torrey Smith: Yes, Colin Kapernick is his QB but shit, he’s the #1 WR on this team.  And he’s my 4th WR, not married to him by any stretch.  And I think Kapernick can’t sink any lower so it’s going to translate nicely for Smith.

10th pick: Devin Funchess: I think I reached just a little bit for him but my 2 picks I had queued up were snaked by the 2 guys drafting in front of me.  I wanted Tajae Sharpe and/or Devontate Booker but like Grandmaster Flash said, “These…are…the breaks!”  I think Funchess can be a nice #2 on that team but not married to this guy either.

11th pick: Bilal Powell: Matt Forte must have Obamacare as his insurance cause he can’t stay healthy.  Bilal Powell is the next man up so….

12th pick: Joe Flacco: I wanted Tyler Boyd but he got snaked 2 picks before me.  And Mariota went 4 before me, another guy in my queue.  My backup QB and I know, he’s inconsistent as they come.  Here are his first 4 games while Brady sits out for me: Home against Buffalo (decent D) @Cleveland (not scaring me one bit) @Jax (They’re better but let me know when they get there) Home against Oak (That D hasn’t been good in 15 years) And during Brady’s bye week, they face the Steelers.  That game is either going to be 9-3 or they’re lighting up the scoreboard.  One week, he’ll throw for 350 and 4 tds.  The following week, he’ll throw for 125 yds and 4 picks.  Just need him for a short time, not the whole year…

13th pick: DeAndre Washington: Does Latavius Murray scare anyone?  (looking around) Nope, didn’t think so.  So I’ll grab the guy that LM’s owner SHOULD’VE grabbed sooner

14th pick: Victor Cruuuuuuuuz.  I had to have at least one Giant and had no problem taking a flier on my guy who salsa’ed his way into everyone’s heart. If he’s healthy and I know, that’s a big IF but he’s practiced all week, that offense will be fucking solid with OBJ, Shepard, and CRUUUUUZ.

15th pick: Mason Crosby:  Fucked up and clicked the wrong guy in this spot.  Broke my own rule!  That cost me Will Fuller…

16th pick: Javorius Allan: Guess who had Justin Forsett last year?  Guess who won’t get fooled again?  NOT THAT I’M BITTER HAVING WASTED A 3RD RD PICK ON HIM.  Well, I’ve learned my lesson.

17th pick: Rams D.  They’re ball hawks despite losing Jenkins to my Giants.  And if they suck, who cares?  It’s a defense and they’re a dime a dozen.  No one with brains wastes a pick above 2nd to last unless it’s the 85 bears, 00 Ravens, or the ’14 Seahawks.