NFL Picks week 6

3-4 last week, first losing week since week 1.  Bad week but not “new Wu-Tang album: bad.  

Tangent: Jesus, it’s like the Wu Tang doesn’t even try anymore.  We can all admit ODB was the glue that held them together, right?  Their solo works are fine but as a group; it’s like one leg of Devastor (Transformers reference.  I could’ve made a Voltron reference but I have standards. Sorry, not sorry, you commoners) is missing and he moves like a kid with polio trying to dance without his braces.  I know we all wish for our bands to reunite that have broken up due to death or hatred for other bandmates.  Sometimes you  can recapture the lightning in the bottle like Stone Temple Pilots, Alice in Chains, or Dead Kennedys.  But be careful what you wish for because you can easily get Guns N Roses with Buckethead, Misfits with Jerry Only as the lead singer, Van Halen with Gary Cherone, or Motley Crue with John Corabi

Here’s why gambling is both great and willing to give you a coronary at a moment’s notice.  I took the Minnesota under, 44, on monday night.  What’s the score at the half?  3-2.  Yep, you read that right.  30 minutes later I check again, they are 30 points in the game.  WHAT?? Look again 5 minutes later, 37 total points with 10 minutes left.  Jesus Christ, I could lose this game.  Then Chicago and the Vikings go back doing what they do best, do their best to get their coaches fired and not score.  The under hits, and your hero closes the loss margin to end the week.

This week is so chock full of huge spreads that Meredith Markovits may bust in like the Kool Aid man and start emptying trays down her horse face.  Taking a favorite with a big spread is like fucking without a rubber in the dark.  There are times where you catch pocket aces and get lucky with a good looking lady but more often than not; you get caught with a Lena Dunham lookalike who has a vicious case of anal warts.  So buyer beware on the big spreads and you better be damn sure that you want to lay double digits.  Let’s get to the picks!

My favorite team is the NY Giants and let’s call it how we see it.  I’ll see more life in Terry Schaivo than I will the Giants in Denver.  Let’s see who’s out: their star WR who does his best Simon Phoenix impression.  Hair, not bad ass-ness.  Their bi-polar WR and their slot WR.  Oh yeah, the center, starting LB and DE too.  And you think they’re going to come into Denver with a offense that makes the kids at an all Jewish school look like the 2000 St Louis Rams score points?  I don’t.  I know I just read you the riot act about taking big spreads (See, a literary curveball!) but when the obvious is right in your face like Hillary Clinton’s awful laugh, take the wallet out!  The Giants aren’t scoring and if they do, it’s because Goodell implemented a mercy rule overnight.  Denver is off the bye and oh yeah, 10-3-1 ATS.  And Den has hit been under in 4/6 at home. Denver could run this shit up and hit the over themselves so be careful about the under.  Lay the points and hope Mcadoo gets run over by the Denver Bronco horse.

I love Den -11.5 and kind of like the under at 39.  

The Rams travel to the white trash venus trap known as Jacksonville.  The Rams had 4 trips to the red zone last week vs Seattle to walk away with just 3 points and even had a chance to win in the last minute.  I say they gain redemption as the Jags are 2-5 at home ATS.  Rams are 6-2 SU in their last 8 and that bodes well as they’re getting 2.5 in Jax.

Take the Rams +2.5

The Patriots have had 10 days off to prep after they barely beat TB.  And the most dangerous thing the Pats can have is time to do is prep.  Oh yeah, Gronk is back too. The Jets are playing well and the Pats D is still rhino poop.  I can’t figure out if the Pats are gonna cover but I can tell you that they’ll be points a plenty.  

Take the Pats over 48

The Saints are back home from a bye after winning a stinkaroo in London against the Dolphins.  The Saints are 5-0 ATS after a bye and won 10 straight in October.  They’re 5-2 ATS vs Detroit.  Stafford is a bit banged up and Detroit doesn’t put up points on the road.  Don’t be a hero, just win money.  This is going to be as easy as betting on Harvey Weinstein vs a plant.

Take the Saints -4.5

Lastly, the Bucs travel to play a Cardinals team who looks as uninspiring as a new Amy Schumer special.  Bucs have had 10 days to prep after shitting the bed against the Pats (Again, fuck you Nick Folk) to play a Cardinals team that’s 1-5 ATS at home.  Winston and the boys look to avenge the beating they got last year in the desert so look for redemption.

Take the Bucs -1.5

 

Week 3 NFL picks

It’s amazing what a changes in a week.  I started out this NFL season 0-5 with the picks.  Last week, 6-1.  The only loss was my lock of the week, of course.  Seattle BARELY beat an awful Niners team but didn’t cover.  The other big spread was Oak vs Jets and the Raiders gave the Jets the old East Rutherford chicken cutlet.  It’s been a weird season thus far.  Giants and the Jets are a bad 0-2 while the Chargers are a good 0-2, as they missed 2 kicks which EASILY puts them at 1-1 and probably 2-0.  

I started out this week 0-1 as I along with 2328975902357 other people took the under in the Rams/Niners Thursday night game.  They had 21 points in the first quarter and ended up dropping 70 fucking points??!!!!  When was the last time TNF had an over, let alone a blowout?  Thankfully, I didn’t lay the load on that.  Onto the picks and hopefully more…FREEEEE MONEY!

The Pats were an easy pick for me last week but this week, 14 is a shit ton of points.  Can they win by 14?  Probably but since my asshole bookie doesn’t take money lines, I’m not touching that.  But the over 44 gets me tumescent.  Some stats why I like this pick: Over has hit for NE 5/5, 4/5 at home, 7/9 when the Pats play the Texans, and 4/5 when the Pats play Houston at home.  Gronk and Amendola are both a go.  NE doesn’t have a great d anymore so the Texans can put up easily 14 points.  And we know Houston D isn’t what it was because Jax gashed them.  Pats probably cover but I’m taking

Pats Over 44

I’d rather have the Carolina Tar Heels on offense than the Carolina Panthers.  Panthers have 32 points in 2 games, nothing special.  But they do have a defense that’s as forgiving as the bank on a late mortgage payment.  Who comes into town this week?  One of the worst road teams in the last 10 years, the New Orleans Saints.  I trust M Night Shamalayan to make a good film before I trust the Saints on the road.  The Saints are now getting 5.5 points.  But the Saints defense is hot horseshit.  Can the Saints put bust through that defensive wall to point up points?  But can Carolina, sans Greg Olsen, cover against the spread?  I have no idea but we do have another option.  Some stats for you to swish around in your mouth and spit into a bucket: Saints under hit 11/14 in Carolina.  Carolina under has hit the last 5/6 and at home, under has hit 4/5.  Hence why I REALLY LIKE:

The under 46.5

The NFL goes back to merry old London and the Jaguars are the NFL de facto home team over there.  Drawing the short straw and playing them are the Baltimore Ravens.  And “lucky” for everyone watching at home, the only way to watch this game is via stream.  Way to go CBS, as if you don’t jam enough commercials down our throats during the game, you’re not going to air something so I can eat some Cinnamon Toast Crunch while my daughter looks up from the iPad and yells out, “Daddy, ball!  Daddy, juice*”  *Denotes beer.  Normally, I would be all over the under but 39 allows for very little wriggle room, as last thursday night’s debacle proved.  But Jax getting demolished last week and Bal being 2-0 AND sandwiched in between division games is going to make a case for me this week.  Balt is 2-6 on the road ATS and 1-5 while playing Jax.  Balt is 1-3-1 when playing on the road against Jax.  But I think this can be the biggest “home” game for Jax as this is their 5th straight game in London.  They’re used to the surroundings, have down their routines, etc.  And they’re getting 3 points?  AND the numbers back me up?  You won’t hear me say this often but 

Give me the Jags +3

Denver is playing in Buffalo.  Both have great defenses and so-so offenses.  Denver has gone under 5/7 on the road.  Other numbers show the over is the play but they go back 6 or 7 games which puts this several years back.  You know, when Denver had a offense.  Buffalo this year has combined for 24 points.  Denver has put up points but I don’t see that happening against a good defense and at 1pm.  Listening to my gut and my eyes, despite little wriggle room.

Denver under 39

I cannot believe I’m caring about this game but when the numbers support it, I have no choice.  The Browns are a road FAVORITE for the first time in 2 years.  Either the bookies know something we don’t but the Browns giving points to ANYONE should be flagged.  I don’t see this line staying at Cle -1 but if you can get it before it becomes a pick em, do it.  Indy is 7-1 SU against the Browns and the Browns are 0-4-1 on the road.  But again, I’m not trusting either teams.  I’m trusting these numbers: Cleveland has gone under 5/6 vs Indy.  Indy is 5/5 at home with the under and 4 out of their last 6 have been under.  This game is more under than Crocodile Dundee.  Wacka, Wacka, Wacka.  (Shoots self in the face)

Take the under 42.5

The sharps are all OVER the Bengals.  They LOVE how they fired their offensive coordinator. I was recently in Cincinnati, the only thing to love about that town is the Reds ballpark followed by leaving that town.  I’m SHOCKED that the sharps love the Bengals so much that the line has dropped from 9 to 7.5.  Did they miss Jordy Nelson practiced in full?  Did they see the Packers get smoked sunday night?  Hope you had the over like I told you to.  Do you think GB is going to rebound, at home where they’re 5-0 ATS?  I do.  GB 8-3 ATS while Cincy is 2-5-1 on the road.  Cincy also 6-12-2 ATS in their last 20.  Head to head numbers? GB 5-2 ATS vs Cincy.  Will Cincy get it together?  Maybe.  But not this week.  Death, taxes, and GB at home.

GB takes a skyline chili influenced dump on Cincy and covers -7.5

Arizona came back to win but not cover against Indy.  I hope you had Indy like I told you to.  I think they’re home with a good D and Dallas D getting gashed by Denver equals an AZ cover but go heavier on the under.  Want a good laugh?  Watch Ezekiel try and tackle.  MANIACAL LAUGH.  Dal is 2-7 in their last 9 ATS.  Dallas went under 11/14 on the road.  AZ 4-1 ATS vs Dal and 4-2 at home when playing Dallas.  The under has hit 4/6 times when these 2 square off.  AZ has had the under hit 9/12 at home.  Tons of numbers to back my predictions of: 

AZ +3 and under 47.

The lock of the week can also be also said as such: Death, taxes, and never Pitt on the road.  7.5 is a lot but I’m not ready to trust Mike Glennon.  Yes, Jordan Howard is playing and practiced in full on friday.  But Pitt has a great defense.  And oh yeah, Mike Glennon. I don’t see the Bears putting up points and I don’t see Pitt lighting up the scoreboard either.  Which is why I’m going with yet again,

The under 44

Some quick hits for other games I MAY take, depending how I do

KC and SD over, the Jets +6, and Oak -3

Last week, 6-1

This week 0-1 (Rams under)

YTD 6-6

Week 17 NFL Picks ATS

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Rough week last week, worst since week 2 but let’s bounce back in a big way.  Sorry for the delay but most of these games are going on now with a few 4pm games.  Tough week for picks because of most of the playoff seeds are determined so more over/unders

I took the Colts -4.5 against Jax and as of now, not looking good against the Jags.  They’re currently down, 17-0.  I figured that Jax got their win out of the way last week with a new coach, Indy’s at home, let’s roll the dice.  Public kicked that line up to 6 by kickoff.

Also locked in the Pats/Miami over 46.  Pats are all over them with a few minutes left in the first half, 20-0 so that over looks to be relatively on track so far.

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My lock of the week is Cle/Pitt under 42.  Pitt is resting everyone and Cle can barely score with all of the 1’s out there.  That score is 14-0 with a few minutes left in the half so I feel confident with that one.  

The Saints are in Atl and Atl is still fighting for a 1st rd bye.  The o/u is 56.5 which is insanely high.  I grabbed the Saints +7.5 because they can definitely match scores with the Falcons and I think the extra .5 will help.

Lastly, I took the KC/SD under 44.5.  Chiefs might have spend their load last week in that offensive outburst last week against Den.  The last 4/5 games played by SD were unders and the last 4/5 games that SD played KC were also unders.  Good enough for me.

 

Fantasy football draft #3 recap

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Last one folks, hope you’ve enjoyed my analyses on my picks and you’ve taken a nugget or 3 for your own drafts.  My final draft occurred on 8/25

Team name: I say NAAAWWWNE, ok?  Back afta dis….

So if you’re not into NY sports talk radio, you won’t know that’s a Mike Francesa reference.  Or you make think that’s a Sour Shoes reference in which it can be but know that he’s goofing on Fatcesa.  TURN MY MIC AWN!

And in this draft, I had pick #1.  I fucking hate pick number 1 unless it’s a year where you have a NO-BRAINER #1 pick.  I’m talking Ladanian  Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk, or Jerry Rice, or Barry Sanders in their prime. Because there are multiple ways to fuck this pick up and you will make yourself sick trying NOT to screw it up.  And you are waiting a LONG time in between picks so you are forced to sometimes to take a player that you wanted to wait on just a little while later but know that there’s no way they’re coming back.  Or there may be a run on RBs or WRs and you feel the pressure to plug a spot.

1st Pick: I doubled down on Antonio Brown again because he’s the closest thing to one of those “no doubt” number ones.

2nd pick: LeSean McCoy: He owes me a season after his last mess with the Eagles.  And as I mentioned above, there was a run on RBs so I felt I had to grab one now or get stuck with a Jeremy Langford/Frank Gore as a number 1 RB.  He should bounce back and no more Karlos Williams to steal carries.  A healthy Tyrod Taylor and Sammy Watkins will make this a pretty nice offense.

3rd pick: Keenan Allen: I could’ve tripled down on Amari Cooper but I’m leery of going in all in with a player in all 3 leagues.  That guy gets injured and ka-plooey!  Even though he’s only my #2 WR, I still didn’t want to gamble.  Besides, Allen and Cooper are 6 and 1/2 dozen.  Allen was CRUSHING it until he got a shot to the kidneys.  He’ll be back with similar or even better numbers.

4th pick: Jarvis Landry: Couldn’t believe my eyes when this beaut fell into my lap.  And there were some questionable picks this round: CJ Anderson (who never lives up to expectations) Eric Decker (too early for him) and Matt Forte (also a little early for an injury risk compounded with a crowded backfield).  This makes it yet again, a SICK WR trio for my teams.  He and OBJ have a bet to see who gets more yds and tds so that will definitely play into my favor…

5th pick: Jordan Reed: Also couldn’t believe my eyes that this guy was available.  Experts had him going late 2nd-early 3rd.  At the beginning of the 5th, I got INSANE value for him.

6th pick: Chris Ivory: You know why he’s on Jax?  Because TJ Yeldon sucked.  You know who’s already starting preseason games? Chris Ivory.  And it’s not going to be 21-0 at the end of the first for Jax anymore, they’ve shored up their defense.  So that means more running and not as much passing for the Pan Handle faithful…

7th pick: Ameer Abdullah: He must get harassed by TSA quite often with a name like that…Rough rookie year, fumbled all over the joint and was left behind.  He’s starting this year again and let’s see if he holds onto the ball.  Experts say 7th round was the right time so I pulled the trigger. Besides, he’s my #3 RB or flex so I’m not married to him by any stretch.

8th pick: Tom Brady: Yet again, the 8th round I get him and yet again, I get value for him.  It’s going to pain me to root for a Patriot but remember: Cash moves everything around me, CREAM! Get the money, dolla dolla bill, y’all.  I was looking to get Sterling Shepard this round but I got snaked 3 picks in front of me by a buddy who is a Giants fan.

9th pick: Torrey Smith: Yes, Colin Kapernick is his QB but shit, he’s the #1 WR on this team.  And he’s my 4th WR, not married to him by any stretch.  And I think Kapernick can’t sink any lower so it’s going to translate nicely for Smith.

10th pick: Devin Funchess: I think I reached just a little bit for him but my 2 picks I had queued up were snaked by the 2 guys drafting in front of me.  I wanted Tajae Sharpe and/or Devontate Booker but like Grandmaster Flash said, “These…are…the breaks!”  I think Funchess can be a nice #2 on that team but not married to this guy either.

11th pick: Bilal Powell: Matt Forte must have Obamacare as his insurance cause he can’t stay healthy.  Bilal Powell is the next man up so….

12th pick: Joe Flacco: I wanted Tyler Boyd but he got snaked 2 picks before me.  And Mariota went 4 before me, another guy in my queue.  My backup QB and I know, he’s inconsistent as they come.  Here are his first 4 games while Brady sits out for me: Home against Buffalo (decent D) @Cleveland (not scaring me one bit) @Jax (They’re better but let me know when they get there) Home against Oak (That D hasn’t been good in 15 years) And during Brady’s bye week, they face the Steelers.  That game is either going to be 9-3 or they’re lighting up the scoreboard.  One week, he’ll throw for 350 and 4 tds.  The following week, he’ll throw for 125 yds and 4 picks.  Just need him for a short time, not the whole year…

13th pick: DeAndre Washington: Does Latavius Murray scare anyone?  (looking around) Nope, didn’t think so.  So I’ll grab the guy that LM’s owner SHOULD’VE grabbed sooner

14th pick: Victor Cruuuuuuuuz.  I had to have at least one Giant and had no problem taking a flier on my guy who salsa’ed his way into everyone’s heart. If he’s healthy and I know, that’s a big IF but he’s practiced all week, that offense will be fucking solid with OBJ, Shepard, and CRUUUUUZ.

15th pick: Mason Crosby:  Fucked up and clicked the wrong guy in this spot.  Broke my own rule!  That cost me Will Fuller…

16th pick: Javorius Allan: Guess who had Justin Forsett last year?  Guess who won’t get fooled again?  NOT THAT I’M BITTER HAVING WASTED A 3RD RD PICK ON HIM.  Well, I’ve learned my lesson.

17th pick: Rams D.  They’re ball hawks despite losing Jenkins to my Giants.  And if they suck, who cares?  It’s a defense and they’re a dime a dozen.  No one with brains wastes a pick above 2nd to last unless it’s the 85 bears, 00 Ravens, or the ’14 Seahawks.

Fantasy Football Draft #2 recap.

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Well, you’re either a fantasy football junkie, an advice seeker, or back to shit on my draft.  Either way, welcome back.  Draft #2 was on August 24th and here’s my team.

Yet again, I had the 3rd overall pick.

1st pick: Antonio Brown.  Yep, you read that right.  My buddy (fellow Giants fan) wanted OBJ because he loves him and the guy who was going #2 wanted him so he snaked him.  But I’ll GLADLY take AB at 3, he’s a goddamn beast.

2nd pick: Allen Robinson.  He absolutely blew up last year and a lot was because Blake Bortles put up great garbage time numbers.  I don’t care, he’s nasty and I’ll gladly have a slight decline in numbers because he’s still a top 5-10 WR.

3rd pick: Amari Cooper.  Smell a theme?  Yeah, I’ll double down on Cooper in another league.  Remember, Oak WR face the 2nd most favorable match ups against shitty CBs. Yet again, I have a NASTY trio of WRs.

4th pick: Thomas Rawls.  Had to get the best RB left on the board.  Coming off an injury and the Hawks do run that ball quite often…

5th pick: Jeremy Langford.  No real competition and he shakes off last season’s rust and runs with this opportunity.  Passed on Matt Forte because he’s old and banged up…

6th pick: John Brown.  In case you missed it, Carson Palmer throws a lot.  And the end is coming very soon for Fitzgerald, despite last year’s Phoenix-like return to greatness.  Michael Floyd is injured often so I’m going with the guy who can straight out haul ass.

7th pick: Frank Gore.  Doubled down on Gore because I wasn’t going with Giovani Bernard and it was too early to go on a QB not named Rogers, Wilson, or Newton (all of which were taken by now.  Although it didn’t stop one guy from taken my boy Eli in this round…)

8th pick: Kevin White.  Rookie year, injured.  He’s the number 2 WR on a team where the #1 gets injured regularly.  And Jay Cutler likes to throw too…mostly to the other team but once in awhile, he’ll find his man by mistake.

9th pick: Derek Carr.  Made a leap last year and yet again, 2nd easiest schedule vs CBs.  Doesn’t hurt that I have his #1 target either so might as well double dip with the connection.

10th pick: Zack Ertz.  I think this was the steal of the draft.  Yes, this guy is always touted as a breakout candidate but no more Chip Kelly and maybe a new rookie QB in a few weeks.  TE are usually the safety valve so what the fuck…

11th pick: Sammie Coates: Doubled down on him again because Ben will have at least 2 games where he throws for close to 500 yds and AB can’t get them all.  Markus Wheaton is trash and this kid is gonna get those #2 targets.

12th pick: Tevin Coleman: If this guy doesn’t get injured last year, Devonta Freeman is a nobody.  He’s healthy and they ran the shit out of Freeman last year.  And believe it or not, a few dummies have started to take defenses and kickers in this round.  Thanks for the donations!

13th pick: Jameis Winston: Backup QB and he faces the Bears D.  Good enough for me.

14th pick: Brandon McManus: Second to last round so time for a kicker.

15th pick: Patriots D: Last pick and these guys get their fair share of DST TDs

Thanks for reading and share with a friend.  Follow me on twitter @KevinGootee and stay tuned during the NFL season for ATS pick!