NFL week 16 picks ATS

Merry Christmas everyone and let’s dig yourself out of the credit card holes for Christmas presents. Last week, 3-2 to get back on the winning side. I hit the Saints in the first leg of a teaser and the Bucs in another leg of a second teaser. I lost with the Cardinals -5 yesterday as they were flatter than an A cup against a 3rd string QB. 0-1 to start this week, 48-40 YTD which is 55% for the season, still in the black!

I absolutely love the Bears this week, which is something I thought I would NEVER say anytime soon. When Trubisky and Montgomery have played together this season, they’re putting up 30 ppg. Bears have scored 69 points in 2 games which takes the Jets about a month to do. And they’re playing Jacksonville, who unlike the aforementioned AAA football team of NY, won’t fuck up the #1 pick. Jax 4-8 ATS of late, 0-10 SU of late. They’re also 0-6 SU at home. Bears are 2-6 ATS of late but 4-2 ATS against Jacksonville. And the Bears are fighting for a playoff spot and well as Trubisky is fighting for a job. This has PRIME teaser taste to it and that’s exactly what I did here.

First leg of teaser, Bears -1.5

Last week, the Rams were as embarrassing as Dr. Fauci’s first pitch in the World Series. If there’s anyone to back after a loss, it’s the Rams: 13-5 ATS after a loss. 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season. Also, the Rams 12-5 ATS on the road. Rams are 5-2 against Sea and average 33 ppg against them. Seattle 2-5 ATS of late but 4-1 SU. And we’re going to make this an even safer play. McVay is a covering machine against Seattle, I see no difference here.

Second leg of teaser Rams +7.5

The Chiefs aren’t covering games AT ALL. Pushed last week against the Saints and I believe their last 5 wins have been by no more than 6. They get up and then take their foot off the gas pedal. Chiefs are 0-5-1 ATS of late but 9-0 SU, 12-1 SU at home. All 1-4 SU of late, 3-6 SU in KC. But here’s a stat that jumped out at me: Matt Ryan as a double digit dog is 5-1 ATS. And the Chiefs D is 32nd in RZ defense. Tyreek Hill will be on a snap count so having their home run hitter limited is another bullet I have. Here’s hoping the Chiefs D does Tera Patrick used to do for many moons, let strangers in her backdoor.

First leg of the teaser Falcons +16.5

A lot of people love Green Bay at home where they’ve been a covering machine. And I have made a TON of money this year teasing GB down but you may have noticed if you’re betting at the regular number, they’re not covering SHIT. 2-4 ATS of late but 6-1 SU and 12-1 SU at home. It’s snowing all day in GB and a high of 28. Green Bay is 21st against the run and you know they’ll be dialing up Derrick Henry and controlling the clock. Rodgers is great in the snow but I don’t see him winning by a TD. Hell, they might even lose. Tenn is 4-1 ATS and SU of late. Also, 4-1 SU against GB and 10-2 SU on the road. Everyone loves backing the Pack at home but you’d better to it on the ML and not lay the 3.5…

Second leg of teaser Titans +9

Thank Christ I didn’t take the Pittsburgh game monday night but that’s going to play a role into this next pick. Cincy obviously blew their load on monday night and now they face a Texans team who is better than their record as well as got the short shrift on some games. See: Colts games this season. Now they’re home against the Bengals and the time is right to fire in. I know Hou is 5-10 ATS of late, 4-11 SU. And Cincy is equally as bad: 2-4 ATS of late, 1-5 SU. And they’re 2-8 ATS against Texans, 1-8 SU. Also, 0-5 SU on the road.

This is the 2nd leg of the 7 pt, TB teaser where the first leg was the Saints. Houston down to a pick’em

Gotta have a total for you this week so here it goes, another teaser??!!! Indy has been over 7/10 of late but those are against awful defenses. Pittsburgh 5/7 under of late and they’re under fire for losing 3 straight in sloppy fashion. Indy had a great defense and they get Buckner back. I don’t see a crazy amount of scoring so let’s take the number to:

Pitt under 50.5

Chargers 8/11 over of late. I know they’ve gone under a lot of late: 4/6 under vs Denver, 9/13 at home, and 7/7 home against Denver. But Denver D is insanely porous and now Bradley Chubb is out. Joey Bosa is out as well as a couple of other defenders for the Chargers. We know Herbert can put up points and Lock had his moments this year. I think they can combine for…

2nd leg of the teaser, Chargers over down to 43

Lastly, we’ve got one more leg of a teaser to fill and boy, I love this one. The Bills have been the cuckholded boyfriend in the AFC east to the Pats since I wore sweater vests and puka shell necklaces. But now, the tables are turning/have turned. I think the Bills come out and shove a roman candle in Bellichick’s ass for 20 years worth of beatings. Bills are 6-0 ATS of late, 7-1 SU. The Pats are done and sticking with Cam which no one can explain. Bills with a few extra days rest and plenty of motivation to get that 2 seed. The ONLY thing the Pats have in their corner besides their coach is some quasi-recent success against the Bills: 6-2 ATS vs NE, 7-1 SU. But those go past the Josh Allen era and I’m more than happy to take 6 points and make this virtually a pick em.

2nd leg of the Saints teaser, Bills -1

NFL against the spread picks week 15

Maaaan, another week of see-sawing, 2-3 last week and grabbed the Baltimore under this week which got decimated, gross. 45-38 for the year, 53% which is still ahead of the curve. I took GB and Den in a teaser last night which of course, lost. Then I grabbed GB and Miami under which is still in play.

You can make case for either the Pats or Fins and I could buy either of them. Bellichick owns rookie QBs, Miami own the banged up Patriots. But I’ll take the road less traveled: Pats 5/5 Under, 5/7 under. Miami under 4/6, 5/7 against AFC, 4/6 AFC east. The Patriots offense has recorded 220, 291 and 179 total yards the past three games. In the first Patriots-Dolphins meeting in Week 1, the teams totaled 32 points, and that was with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB and healthy WRs and RBs for Miami. Pats missing RBs, WRs, and Geisicki, Pats are missing anything resembling a playmaker on offense. We’re teasing someone else so might as well give ourselves more of a cushion.

Teaser leg #1 Miami under 47.5

And here, I apologize to all of you, and myself, for talking us into teasing the Giants who got blown out last week against Arizona. Sigh, just when you think you have them figured out. Here’s what I do know: The Giants are WOUNDED this week: Engram has a late injury (questionable) Colt McCoy is back in (farts), but the most IMPORTANT player on the Giants is out due to Covid is James Bradberry. He’s EASILY been Gettleman’s best signing this season and maybe for his career. Top 3 corner for sure and now he’s out. Also out, Jason Garrett and a few other Giants coaches are out due to covid and their LBs coach just left to coach Illinois. So who is calling the plays for the Giants? Fab Five Freddie Kitchens. (Rodney Dangerfield collar tug) Cle 2-6 ATS but 4-1 SU of late. 1-4 ATS and SU against Giants but this is pre-Baker Mayfield. 1-4 SU on road. Giants 5-2 ATS, 4-1 SU of late, 4-12 ATS at home. I just don’t see the defense holding stout without Bradberry and Cleveland absolutely needing the game. Maybe the Giants hold tight but I just need Cleveland to win outright with this teaser.

Second leg of the teaser Browns -.5

Edit: I grabbed last night a GB and Miami under teaser so that’s still alive!

Buffalo played a great game against Pitt, one of the 2 wins I had last week. This is the 2nd cross country flight for the Bills. Also, did you know the Broncos are the SECOND BEST ATS in the NFL? Denver defense #2 in pass TDs allowed and #7 in sacks. Den 5-1 SU home against Buffalo, 4-2 ATS vs AFC east. And of course, this is Josh Allen’s first trip in altitude. This could a spot when Buffalo is caught looking ahead and Drew Lock can play well enough to keep it close. Double digits, why the hell not.

First leg of teaser Den +11.5 ALREADY LOST

Look, Carolina is playing teams tough but they’ve been hit with Covid. No Christian McCaffrey, sigh. That was fun taking him #1 in my buddy’s league and then missing the playoffs by 1.8 points. Yep, you read that right, ONE POINT EIGHT FUCKING POINTS. It’s cold in Green Bay tonight but Carolina 4-2 ATS in GB, 1-4 SU. GB 5-1 SU last 6, 11-1 SU at home, 4-1 SU home against Carolina. This is a lot to say for simply stating I’m taking

Second leg of teaser GB-1.5 ALREADY LOST

Quick handicap Hou 6/8 over on the road, Indy over 4/5, 7/9, 8/11 vs AFC. Watson fumbled late to lose the game but this game definitely has points scored. And Watson gets back his #1 WR with Brandin Cooks.

1st leg of 7 pt teaser Indy over 44.5

Matt Stafford is expected to play with a busted thumb and torn rib cartilage. And the last time he did that, he got shut out by the Carolina Panthers. And if Chase Daniels goes, olly olly oxen free! Det 1-4 ATS against Tenn, 0-5 SU, 1-5 SU in Tenn. Tenn 4-2 ATS, 12-5 SU. Titans and Derrick Henry run right through that awful defense.

2nd leg of 7 point teaser: Titans -2.5

Two words: DWAYNE HASKINS. I know Seattle isn’t covering for shit and not looking solid of late: Seattle 3-6 ATS, 9-4 SU. 1-4 ATS on road, 2-5 vs NFC. I know the Skins are playing REALLY tight defense and covering. Washington 4-1 ATS and SU, 4-14 SU at home. 6-2 ATS at home. And I know I would rather sit in a public restroom in a stall between Louie Anderson and Carl Winslow after they both went out for fajita Friday than lay a nickel on Dwayne Haskins. So I took Seattle down to virtually a pick em and will watch them grind out a 1-3 point win.

First leg of teaser: Sea -.5

Gonna COMPLETELY go against conventional wisdom and I got this next leg of the teaser from my buddy, Nick Whitmer. Rams 4-1 ATS and SU, 5-1 SU home against Jets, 1-4 ATS vs AFC. Hets 4-9 ATS, 2-8 ATS against Rams. The Rams are gonna hatefuck the Jets into oblivion but shit, 17.5 is a TON of points. But can the Rams win by 2 TDs and not blow a backdoor cover after pulling their starters? I think so. I know we’re not teasing through 7 and 0 but I think this one comes home easily. The Jets lone chance to win 1 game is against the Pats, not on the road in LA

Second leg of the teaser: Rams -11.5

Pitt 2-4 ATS but 11-2 SU. 10-3-2 ATS, 10-0 SU, 6-2 ATS against AFC. Cincy 1-4 ATS but 4-1 ATS at home

Week 14 NFL picks ATS 12/12/20

If you couldn’t tell, I’m PSYCHED to see Gutting the Sacred Cow is now #15 on iTunes film review!!! WOW

I guess the pic of Ben Affleck palming J-Lo’s ass was the lucky charm I needed! An OUSTANDING 5-1-1 last week. The only loss was can you believe the fucking Steelers couldn’t win outright at home against the Skins? Teased that down to -1 but man, what a kick to the balls. Can’t complain when you on the other hand, have Oakland throw up a bomb to get the backdoor cover to push on another teaser. And the Giants under, Rams and Browns… barely broke a sweat in those games. I took the Rams und-AH on Thursday night as well, pushing the yearly total to 44-34-3 (56%) for the year. Back on track to help pay for those Christmas or whatever you celebrate presents.

Cardinals have been REALLY bad of late and that’s because for whatever the reason, Kyler Murray isn’t running. Rams kept him contained last week and that shoulder must be a bit balky. Now they fly east for a 1pm game against my NY Giants who FLOORED myself and the world by beating Seattle in Seattle with a backup QB. Daniel Jones was a full participant at practice Friday so I assume he’s a go. More stats for you: Cardinals 1-6 ATS of late and yet again, that 1 win was the hail mary to beat Buffalo. Historical numbers point to AZ as they’re 6-1 in NY and they’re 4-1 SU and ATS but that goes back how many QBs ago? And Giants are 5-1 ATS of late, the 1 ATS loss was the Bengals. They COVER as dogs and they’re 4-1 SU of late. Giants d has 20 points or fewer in 4 straight games (all wins), 3rd in takeaways, 8th in sacks, 10th in overall defense. There are a lot of games that need teasing this week so I had to partner this up with someone. I jumped on when it was 3, it’s now 2. JUST to be on the safe side but I do like them straight up, MAYBE even on the money line.

Giants +9 for teaser leg number 1.

What else can I tease besides all you people who think A Christmas Story is a good movie? It’s fucking terrible and this week on Gutting the Sacred Cow Podcast; I depants it, run it through a shredder, and pour it into a bathtub filled with lye. Let’s pick on the Eagles (yet again) starting a rookie QB. They’re not scoring points with Hurts making his NFL debut and of late, they’ve been awful. 6/6 have gone under, 4/5 vs NO, 11/13 at home. Saints have went under 5/5 of late and 4/5 against NFC.

Saints under 49.5 leg number 2

Two teams that have garbage defenses. Two teams that have excel in garbage time scoring. Utah, gimme 2! I couldn’t think of something else to start with 2 so you get one of the best movie quotes of all time. But let’s look at some no brainers stats. Titans 5/6 over of late, 5/6 on the road. 9-2-1 over out of 11, 18-3-1 over out of 22. Titans have 4 games they scored 35 or more in. Facing a Jags defense that is a Phantom Menace level of awful: dead last in total yards allowed and passing yards allowed, 2nd to last in rushing yards allowed. Jags 29th in points allowed. Jags over 7/10 against Tenn and 10/14 vs AFC. Say no more.

Titans over 52.5

The Colts are facing the Raiders this week who A) are missing key players on defense and B) already have the 29th ranked defense for sacks as 28th in scoring defense. And the Colts defense hasn’t been as lights out as it was earlier on: 17, 31, 45, and 20 points allowed. Colts have gone over 6/8 and 4/5 in Vegas/Oakland, 7/10 against AFC. Vegas over 9/12 and 4/5 at home. Josh Jacobs is questionable and Devonta Booker did whogatz against the goddamn Jets defense. They’ll have to air it out and I’m spot starting Rivers tomorrow in fantasy playoffs. 51.5 is the current number but I said let’s have less to sweat out.

1st leg of a teaser Colts over 45.5

Anthony Lynn and Donald Trump will be holding hands along with Adam Gase in the unemployment line sooner than later. But 1 thing you can bank on; after getting your doors blown off, NFL teams USUALLY respond with a resounding effort. And yours truly told you to take the Pats last week in a cakewalk 45-0 blowout. Enter the Atlanta Falcons. 30th in QB rushing yards allowed, 30th in passing yards, and 32nd to QB rushing TDs. Oh yeah, no Julio Jones either. Now, numbers do favor ATL: 7-2 ATS on the road, 6-0 SU in LAC. Chargers 0-6 ATS of late; 1-4 ATS and 1-5 SU at home. Now I know Anthony Lynn can fuck up a cup of coffee but the Chargers HAVE to answer back, especially Herbert against a defense that’s worse than Police Academy: Mission to Moscow. Yes, they made it. Yes, it’s terrible and I bailed after 15 minutes. Like I said, Anthony Lynn is like the dealer DeNiro fired for incompetence in Casino. But if they don’t answer the bell after that gang rape last week, they might as well fire him Monday. But let’s REALLY help our cause out and…

2nd leg of the teaser: Chargers to +7.5

The new car smell that came when the Detroit Lions fired Patricia is over. Aaron Rodgers comes in and boy, he’s dealing this year. Everyone who gambled on him in fantasy looks like a genius. GB 8-4 ATS and 4-1 SU of late. I know GB has had troubles in Detroit, 1-6 ATS, but probably no Golladay and Swift again. Detroit 2-4 ATS and 5-15 SU of late. I’m seeing GB between laying between 8-9 points but I got lucky and jumped on when it was 7.5. But juuuuuust in case Detroit may keep it close and try to backdoor…

1st leg of teaser: GB -1.5 And if I were you, I’d tease it to -2.5 if possible; even lay the extra vig for a 7 pt teaser.

Well, I said it before and I’ll say it again. Nothing makes me happier than betting against the Philadelphia Eagles and winning money. Did it last week and now they finally sit Carson Wentz (from MVP to 25 million dollar albatross, HAHAHAHA!) and bring in Jalen Hurts. And what a time to do so; against the TOP RANKED DEFENSE IN THE NFL? Doug Pederson, if anything, is a goddamn masochist. Saints 5-0 ATS, 9-0 SU of late. Tell me more about Philly besides a town of people that made up a word, jawn, that’s more retarded than their chants. First time I heard that, I thought they were making a Suzyn Waldman reference. Deeper cut, go google it. NO is 4-2 ATS, 5-1 SU in Philly, and 5-0 SU on the road. Philly 4-9 ATS of late and now with a rookie QB facing #1 defense in the last month, 3rd in sacks, 44 points allowed in the last 5 games, and the Saints have allowed TWO touchdowns in FIVE games. Oh yeah, they also had the #2 offense in the last month. Since we need to pair the GB game with someone, let’s make it even easier than those crawdaddy tourist muggers.

2nd leg of teaser, Saints -.5 And I also took the Eagles team total under 18 points for all of the reasons above.

Here’s one that may make you cock your head (you perverts) and say, really? I could be a little off base but the numbers will back this play. We all love the Chiefs since last year but if you’re not teasing them or taking them on the money line, you’ve lost A LOT of money on them of late. They’re 1-4 ATS but 7-0 SU of late as well as 8-0 SU on the road. Lastly, they haven’t won a game by more than SIX points in their last 4 games. Now they go to Miami who has been playing rock solid defense. Miami is an NFL best 9-3 ATS, 7-1 ATS of late as well as SU. Miami is also 7-2 SU home against KC, WOW! Miami has scored 20 or fewer in their last 3 but that leaky KC defense doesn’t scare anyone. Hell, Denver covered playing the Chiefs last week. I think Miami keeps this close but I’m always afraid of the Chiefs exploding. So maestro, a little extra cushion if you would?

First leg of the teaser Miami +13

And because I love the Saints this week more than my wife (Just kidding honey, these are just jokes that will pay for Christmas presents), I’m pairing the Saints again as part of a teaser.

Second leg of the teaser Saints -.5

And now, the premier matchup of the week. Pittsburgh has looked sloppy the last 2 games and losing to Washington, wow. They’re also down 2 LBs, have injuries on the o-line. This line JUMPED from Pitt -1.5 to Buffalo -1.5 as the sharps pounded this early. Is it recency bias because of the way the Bills grabbed the Niners like a bowling ball and then tossed them out like a parking ticket in a foreign country? Maybe. Steelers are 7-3 ATS of late but they haven’t had a “bye” since week 5. Let’s add this is the Steelers 3rd game in 12 days and they might be on fumes at this point. Buffalo fresh off a bye and 4-1 ATS, 5-1 SU and 5-1 SU at home. Look, I get why you would want to back Pitt, especially since they’re 17-5 ATS off a loss and against a winning team. But my gut says Pitt may be sluggish and the Bills are fired up. The number is sure right to take them…

Bills -1.5

NFL Week 12 picks against the spread

What’s this?? Gutting the Sacred Cow #38 on iTunes top 100 for films

3-3 last week and I took the Dallas under on Thanksgiving night. Well, that turned into a loss because Mike McCarthy is a fuckhead, dumb dildo coach who goes for it on 4th down deep in his own zone TWICE and of course, Washington gets touchdowns both times. Bringing my yearly total to 35-31-2, 53%. God, I’m even ready to fade my as we’re JUST above break even for the year. Let’s get some winners here:

The easiest bet has been the Chargers over. The second easiest bet will be Anthony Lynn getting fired. The third easiest bet will how awesome our Gutting the Sacred Cow live show be. And if you haven’t gotten tickets yet, I just happen to have the link right here: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

Chargers have went over 7 straight over. The Chargers’ totals during that seven-game stretch have been 69, 57, 68, 61, 57, 50, 62. Chargers defense allowed 28 points in 4 straight. Chargers 8/9 on road. Bills over 8/10 and 4/5 over at home. Bills over 8/11 against AFC west. Bills bottom half ranked defense.

Teased Chargers over down to 45.5

Did I ever get the Falcons wrong last week. The Saints defense was more fired up than a sheikh in a roomful of drugged up runaways. Now they play Drew Lock? Broncos 17/21 under vs teams with a winning record. Last 3 games, Saints allowed 8.3 ppg and 6 total second half points. Saints #2 in rushing defense. Denver 70% under at home. Taysom Hills first time in altitude? Not many points going to happen there…especially now that Denver had ALL FOUR QBs GO ON THE COVID LIST. Yeah, they have a guy named Hinton at QB today. The new line is Saints -15.5 and o/u 36.5. I could see teasing the Saints -9.5 and over 30.5. This game could easily be 24-7 and that’s a winner. Thank Christ I locked in Saturday afternoon before this news broke. Closing line value, baby!

2nd half of teaser is Saints under 49.5

Pittsburgh/Baltimore may not even happen as more covid cases are popping up. James Connor just got put on the covid list but so is Lamar Jackson. Now, Lamar may play if he passes a few more tests. Both teams haven’t practiced all week so this may be a bit of a shitshow. Bal 1-4 in last 5. 4-0-2 in Pitt. Covid everywhere. 7-1 ATS last 8, 10-0 SU, 5-0 at home SU, 6-0 ATS against AFCI HAD to jump on it when the number was 4. It’s now 7 so I’d recommend teasing Pitt down if I were you; no way in hell would I lay more than 4 in a division game.

Pitt -4

I’m breaking cardinal rule number 1 as a Giants fan (NEVER bet on the NY Giants unless it’s the under) but guess what, it’s been working of late. Giants 8-0 ATS on the road. Now, I’ll preface that last fact by saying damn near all of those games were as underdogs. This is the first time we’re laying points. They’re off the bye, fired up, and even fired their offensive line coach. The gang is playing for Joe Judge and that’s what I want to see. Giants have scored on 70% of RZ trips in the last 3 games. Brandon Allen QB for the Bengals, under 50% completion. Giants 6-1 ATS of late, 4-2 SU against Cincy. Cincy 6-3 ATS of late, 1-4 against NFC

Giants -5.5

The Niners are getting healthier and I could care less. You think the Niners are coming to LA and hanging tight? Maybe. Rams 6-0 at home, 4-2 ATS of late. 8-1 SU against NFC, 7-2-1 against NFC west. SF 2-5 of late ATS and SU but 7-3 ATS and SU against Rams. 5-12-1 against the NFC west. So all that said, we’re going to make our lives easier.

First half of the teaser Rams -1

I’ll be goddamned if I ever have to trust the Bears again after they couldn’t do shit on a monday night 2 weeks ago. And now they’re starting Mitch Trubisky? Jesus Christ, lock and load. Bears are 7-13 ATS of late. 5-14 ATS against GB, 1-7 SU against GB and 2-10 SU in GB. Bears 3-7 ATS on road. 4/5 Bears losses by 8 points or fewer. GB 2-4 ATS of late. 13-4 SU of late, 9-1 SU at home. You think after a loss on the road they don’t rebound against a divisional foe?

and Packers -2.5 make up the 2nd leg of the teaser.

Titans looked great last week against the downward spiraling Ravens, one of the teaser halves I gave you. Tennessee 3-1 on the road. Titans and Colts, whomever wins the first meeting (Colts) is 7-17-1 in rematch. Titans 10-4 SU but 1-4 ATS. Colts 6-3 ATS, 4-1 SU, 5-1 SU at home. Tennessee plays tight on the road so let’s get us more than a TD cushion. No better time than to get some free points so why not

Make the first half of a teaser Titans +9

Tua sprained his thumb on a teammates helmet in practice and is doubtful for tomorrow. Which means everyone’s favorite bearded genius, Ryan Fitzpatrick, gets to come in and through all over the Jets putrid defense. Yes, I know the Jets have covered against the Pats and Chargers but which of these 2 teams are going to the playoffs? Bingo. Miami defense is going eat alive Sam Darnold who returns after a 2 game absence. Miles Gaskin (not Miles Dyson, the creator of Skynet) just may return tomorrow to. Dolphins 5-1 ATS and SU of late, 5-0 ATS and 5-1 SU against the Jets.

But since we need a team to pair with the Titans, the Dolphins down to -1 is more appetizing than your moms’ whorish mouth making kissy faces at me.

Second half of the teaser, Dolphins -1

Week 11 NFL picks against the spread

Did you get your Gutting the Sacred Cow live show tickets yet? Don’t worry, we still have SOME left, here’s the link to do so: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

3-2-1 last week so back in the W column. Pushed the Chargers teaser (wish I got 8.5 instead of 8), lost the Ravens teaser (they’re not as good as we thought they were) and also lost the Bears on MNF (Cousins snaps his 0-9 skid against an anemic Bears offense). Won the other 2 teasers and the Rams so bravo for me. Which puts me at 32-27-2 for the year, 54% overall. Still making money

Detroit Lions are lot like me in my early 20’s. I would be chatting up a lady at a bar and have her on the line. And a good chunk of the time, I would say something that would inevitably fuck up the situation and keep me from getting laid. And that’s the Lions, they’ll have 1st half leads and blow them late as their defense is worse than living in Detroit. Today, they are facing PJ Walker and they’re still likely down two OL (both doubtful). I’m gambling that Stafford plays (thumb) and all signs point to yes. No Golladay and no Swift, I know. But I think Stafford guides them to a first half lead and even if it’s tied, I’ll push.

Det 1H Pick em. It jumped to -1.5 but I locked in yesterday however I would still lay the 1.5

I don’t count player props in my W/L record (although I did hit Russ Wilson over rushing yds monday night!) but here’s one for you that jumped out me. GB defense allows 7 yds per target to RB. Nyheim Hines had a great game last week against a porous Tenn D so why not expect the same this week? Low number but higher vig (-120)

Hines over 27.5 yds

Titans are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS when getting 4 or more. What did the Ravens show me in that monsoon monday night? They’re not as good as we think? And the Titans got their doors blown off Thursday night against the Colts. The worst secret is that the Ravens can’t come from behind at all. Titans have 3 extra days to prep; plus the Ravens play Thanksgiving night. You don’t think they aren’t looking ahead to facing Pittsburgh that night? I do. Tenn 3-7 ATS of late but 9-4 SU. They are 1-4 ATS on the road. But just like boobs, more is better. So let’s go from 6.5 to 12.5 and watch the Titans keep this REALLY close, maybe even catch the Ravens in a trap game.

First half of the teaser, Tenn +12.5

As much as I loathe the Eagles (had the Giants in a teaser last week, didn’t need the points!), they’ve got to win today to stay competitive in the bargain bin of mediocrity known as the NFC east. Good news is that Philly is 5-0 SU against Cle. Bad news is Philly is 3-7 ATS of late and 1-4 ATS. Good news is Browns are 1-4 ATS of late and 3-6 ATS for the season. Also, 2-10 SU against NFC east. Bad news is Browns are 6-2 SU and 8-2 SU at home. A perfect world for me would be Philly losing but covering. Most importantly, Miles Garrett is out for the Browns which gives the 25 million dollar bust known as Carson Wentz some time to let receivers run their routes. Plus, Philly does have a pass rush and Mayfield averaging 5.8 yds per attempt. Give me a 20-16 Browns W…

Second half of teaser Philly +8.5

Ravens under 7/10, 10/13 under vs Tenn, 4/5 at home, 7/7 home against Tenn. Again, the Ravens have a game in 3 days, they’re not going to go crazy expending all of their energy. Titans bread and butter is Derrick Henry so expect a lot of running.

Tenn under 50.5

It’s the Taysom Hill spectacular! You know, the guy that is now eligible in some of your fantasy leagues as a TE that sent fantasy owners screaming to their commissioner? Who know how long this experiment lasts but I only care for 1 game. Falcons off a bye and believe it or not; they’re playing hard for Raheem Morris. Falcons 7-2 ATS of late, 7-3 SU in last 10 against NFC south. 1-4 ATS against NO but that’s against Brees. I have no idea what to expect but I sure as shit expect Matt Ryan to air out it and keep it close against a QB who spends his off season knocking on your doors at 7am on a Saturday; asking if you’d like have a copy of the Watchtower. So let’s REALLY give ourselves a cushion in case that Falcons defense makes like Eugene Robinson in the superbowl and gets busted for soliciting prostitutes that turn out to be a cop.

1st half of teaser is Falcons +10.5

We all know Andy Reid is as much of a lock after a bye as much as your moms are after 3 appletini’s at a TGI Friday’s happy hour. Now add how the Raiders did a victory lap on them after they won in KC the first go around. Finally, a pinch of Maholmes telling the media that they’re more than ready (paraphrase). The Chiefs are going to decimate them: Chiefs are 15-3 ATS and 17-1 SU of late. 10-5 ATS against Vegas and 5-1 SU. 6-0 on the road and 4-1 SU in Vegas. Please. And Vegas a much better road team than home, 2-5 ATS at home. But I need another team to tease so I’ll make this game less than a FG.

2nd half of teaser is KC -1 but I’d tease ANY number down to below a TD. It’s going to be a romp, 1995 Florida State Bobby Bowden style.

Already hit a the first half of my next teaser, AZ +9, on Thursday night. I will say that the Seattle safety sent shivers up my butthole which cut it to 4. Thank Christ Seattle just kicked a FG to win by 7.

I have no idea how GB is getting points. Yes, they didn’t cover against Jax and it was close for awhile. GB 6-3 ATS of late, 13-3 SU. GB also 4-1 ATS on the road and I get Rodgers in a dome? I don’t see Rivers able to throw the ball that well; even against a weak GB defense but they are getting Jaire Alexander back in the secondary. Yes, Indy is 4-0-1 SU home against GB but those are mostly if not all of Andrew Luck’s years. Now let’s make things even more interesting because I have to fill another teaser and give me 6 points? HIGHLY doubt GB loses, let alone by more than a TD

Second half of the teaser GB +7.5

If there’s one team that can fuck up a cup of coffee (Name that film…Casino!), it’s the Chargers. They’ve been snakebitten left and right and Justin Herbert has 1 win this year? Christ. They got hosed against the Raiders. But holy hell, if they can’t take down the worst team in the last 10-15 years, Anthony Lynn should be forced to watch Napoleon Dynamite and 2001 Space Odyssey (2 films we did on Gutting the Sacred Cow podcast!) back to back for eternity. Joe Flacco is starting and if you recall, he gave the Pats a scare but of course, the Jets give up 10 points in the final 5 minutes and lose. But the Jets also are without the INT leader Pierre Desir and Brian Poole. I just see the Chargers kicking their dicks in despite being 1-7 SU of late, 1-5 SU at home, and 2-4 ATS at home against the Jets (Phil Rivers years) Don’t worry, the Jets don’t have much going for them, 2-7 ATS of late and 1-6 ATS on the road. But again, why not make it under a TD so you can’t get backdoored.

First half of the teaser: Chargers -3.5

I think this last pick is the easiest of them all. Remember gambling rule #2: always bet against Mark Sanchez and Andy Dalton. Yes, Dallas just came off a bye but remember, they’re playing on Thanksgiving against their hated rival, the Redskins. Would you be surprised if they just get to Minnesota and went through the motions to prep against a team they are in the middle of a division race for? Let’s also acknowledge Kirk Cousins BEST spot is when he’s at home for a 1pm start, he’s ~65% ATS. Dallas is on their THIRD center this week; I don’t care if it’s Dalton, Aikman, Quincy Carter behind center, that’s gonna screw them up. And if you haven’t been paying attention; Minnesota has quietly been a covering machine, 6-1 ATS of late and 4-2 SU. They’re 7-0 ATS home against Dallas (Dak’s years to boot!). Dallas 1-8 ATS of late, 1-6 SU, 0-6 ATS on the road. These numbers inspire less confidence than me sitting down to watch a Jack Black/Seth Rogen/Ben Stiller movie. I have to finish up a teaser so let’s make this virtually foolproof.

Second half of teaser: Vikings -1

NFL Week 9 ATS bets

I’m retiring that Scrooge McDuck bank vault dive because every time I use it, I get smoked. 2-5 last week, bringing me down to 27-22 and 55% for the year. That’s the lowest I’ve been in 3 seasons, yeeeesh. But oh golly, I feel hot today (Caddyshack quote for you those who know the film better than you know your spouses) So the photo this week is a great way to announce Gutting the Sacred Cow LIVE podcast tickets are now on sale! https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

LOVE Arizona now -5.5. I locked in yesterday at 4pm and the line jumped 2 FULL POINTS. Talk about closing line value. You mean to tell me Tua who just had a 3 yd TD pass is just a 5.5 point dog? The special teams, defense, and 1 yd TD run was the rest of the offense for the Dolphins. You have to throw out all recent stats with Miami (5-1 ATS of late, 4-1 SU, 9-3 SU vs AZ) as they’re a completely new team with Tua. Bona of late 5-2 ATS

Arizona -3.5 but I still like it for -5.5, both need win by more than a FG

One of the few winners I had last week was the Steelers getting 10.5 in Baltimore as part of a teaser. We saw the Jackson had a hard time throwing it because the Steelers took them out of the running game. And of course, the Ravens can run over everyone. I also know that when Leonard plays for the Colts, they’re something like 5-1 ATS. This is strictly a bounce back game for the Ravens as they’re 12-5-1 of last 18 and 17-3 SU of 20. Bal 9-0 SU on the road. Colts are 4-2 ATS and 5-1 SU and playing well. But guess what? Sharps pounded Indy so now it’s Bal +1.5 and I said let’s make that even safer…

Teased Baltimore +7.5

Who to tease with? Well, I should’ve bought out of the Raiders bet against Cle. Raiders are playing the Charges who have blown THREE 17 point leads this year. In LA but who gives a shit? Vegas is 6-3 ATS of late and 5-1 ATS on the road. Chargers are 4-2 of late but 1-5 SU of late and 1-4 SU at home. But again, let’s give us some wiggle room…

Raiders +7.5 second leg of the Bal teaser

Sam Darnold is doubtful but honestly, would it matter? Jets are 1-7 ATS of late, 0-8 SU, 1-4 SU at home, 1-5 SU home vs NE. And Joe Flacco is playing? Wow. I know know the Pats have been awful of late, 3-6 ATS and 1-5 of late. But man, you think Bellichick is losing to the Jets? On Monday night? After 3 straight losses? I don’t. But again’ let’s be safe and..

Tease the Pats to -1.5 and Sea over 48.5 as the second leg of the teaser.

Buffalo Over in 6/8, 4/5 against AFC east. Bills over 6/8, 9/9 vs Seattle, and 6/6 over vs NFC West. Seattle over 6/8 and 4/5 vs AFC.

Russ is something like 14-7 ATS on the east coast for 1pm games. Buffalo defense has been awful of late. All but 2 of their games (1 against the Jets) they’ve given up 20 points or more. And they gave up 21 to a shitty Pats team in the rain last weekend. Seattle’s high octane offense can easily gash this trash bag defense. Seattle 5-2 of late, 6-1 SU. Sea 10-3 SU on the road and Sea 5-0 ATS in November. Bills 1-4 ATS of late, 2-4 ATS at home. Laying a FG on the road with Russ and no real RB= a lot of chunk plays for big yards. BTW, Russ is -150 to win MVP this year. Who would’ve thought a guy who has a virgin until he met Ciara was capable of this (pun intended) explosion. Looks like him and AC Green have a lot to talk about…

Seattle -3

Drew Lock was impressive last week and now he gets to play in a dome against the worst pass defenses? Den 5-2 ATS, 7-3 SU against ATL, more importantly 4-1 ATS on the road and 4-1 SU in ATL. No Calvin Ridley either for the Falcons. Falcons are 5-1 ATS in November. ATL 2-4 ATS and 2-6 SU, 1-14 vs AFC. This makes a quick and easy 1st leg of a teaser.

Denver +10.5 and teasing AZ to +.5

NFL picks week 6 ATS

3-3-1 last week so another week of .500. Not winning money, just losing vigs. But good news is no losing weeks all season. 17-10-1 for the year gives me a 63% success rate so very much still in the black. And I loved our latest episode photo of Point Break on Gutting the Sacred Cow podcast that I had to add it here, make sure you give it a listen and subscribe!

People are loving TB this year and I want you to point out a good win they’ve had. They got lucky against a bad Chargers team and just lost to Nick Foles. But the Packers have done nothing but make me money this year. They’re GB-9-3-2 following a bye.  GB 5-1 ATS, 10-1 SU of late and 5-1 SU on road.  GB 5-1 ATS in last 6 vs NFC south and 5-1 ATS in October.  TB 2-4 ATS, 1-5 ATS in last 6 vs NFC north.  TB 0-5 ATS in October.

Taking GB on the money line as the line is -1. Why not pay a few dollars more to get it at a pick em? 

Did I call the Browns last week or what? Now the Colts looked like pureed dog shit against them. You know they’re going to be pissed and thankfully, they get a cupcake Bengals team. Some stats? Sure. Colts 7-0 ATS before a bye.  Indy 13-3 SU at home, 5-2 in October.  Cincy 3-16-1 SU last 20, 4-9 SU against Indy and 1-8 SU in Indy.  0-14-1 SU on the road.  But you know what’s a great idea? Teasing the Colts down to below a FG. So here’s the first leg of the teaser.

Second half of the teaser: Houston gives up a lot of points and they can also put up points. Hou Over 4/6 of late, Tenn 4/5 over.  7/8 over at home for Tenn.  Tannehill fresh off a curb stomping of the Bills, they’ll put up points early on Hou. And Houston will be airing it out to chase points so there’s the second leg of the teaser.

Colts -2 and Hou over 47.5 

Baker has bruised ribs and can’t play fast.  Cle 4-2 ATS in Pitt but 3-16-1 SU in Pitt.  Cle 1-7 ATS on road, 0-10 in Pitt.  Cle 1-4 vs AFC and 2-4 SU in AFC north.  Pitt 4-1 SU, 7-1 SU at home.  8-1-1 ATS in October. Pittsburgh is having an all-world start, best since the 70’s when they won all those Superbowls. No jokes, just take the Steelers.

Pitt -3.5

I fucked up and locked in 2 different teasers with the Colts. So that’s the first half of the teaser. The second half, Denver Broncos are 3-7 SU in NE, 3-9 on road, 0-5 ATS in NE.  2-6 SU vs AFC east.  No Noah Fant and no Melvin Gordon for the Broncos. Pats have Cam and Gilmore back.  17-3 SU at home, 6-1 ATS in October. I would rather try to paint Mohammed in a French magazine than bet against Bellichick with 2 weeks to prepare against a team with 2 shitty QBs and a middle of the road third one. And we’re teasing the Pats down to a key number; although I think they cunt punt them without the 6 points we’re getting from the teaser.

Indy -2 and Patriots -3

The Jets are worse than having to sit in Lincoln tunnel traffic with your stomach having the diarrhea gurgles. Jets 0-5 ATS and SU, 0-4-1 ATS and 1-4 SU vs Miami.  Jets 3-14 SU on road and 1-4 vs AFC East.  Miami 5-2 ATS of late, 5-1 against AFC, 5-0 ATS in week 6.

Arizona 4-1 ATS and SU in Dallas.  But 2-14 SU in Dallas.  Dallas 0-5 ATS and 1-6 ATS vs NFC west. Now you’re probably saying, “holy shit, you’re betting on the soul less ginger known as Andy Dalton?” Yep. Because they’re going to feed Zeke like they should’ve been done all year. And Arizona fresh off a blowout win against the Jets now have to fly back home and then Dallas? I don’t think Dallas gets blown out and with the teaser, it’s a key number for Red Riding Hood.

Miami -3.5 and Dallas +7

SF has been bad but they’re getting people back on the field.  They’re 13-4 SU against NFC, 5-2 vs NFC west.  Yes, Niners are 2-5 ATS at home but Rams mightily struggle here, 3-6 SU and ATS in SF. Niners need this game to stay entrenched in the wild card race and I think they keep it close, maybe even win. Rams have been traveling all over the place and despite my misstep picking against them last week; I think it’s gotta catch up to them sometime and this is it.

Jim Harbaugh is the Bobby Bowden from the FSU days in the 90’s. He just runs up those scores without give .5 fucks. Bal 12-3-1 ATS in 16, 16-2 SU.  4-2 ATS against Philly. 8-0 SU on road, 7-0 vs NFC.  Philly 1-5 ATS and 1-4-1 SU.  1-4 vs AFC. Philly showed some fight against Pitt but in true Philly fashion, gagged it up like a bulimic after eating a cheesesteak at Geno’s. Don’t worry, Carson Wentz will still put up his 2-3 picks this game and the Ravens will coast. They’ll have an easier time beating the Eagles than going home and dodging bullets in Baltimore.

Bal -3.5 and Niners +8.5

Week 5 NFL against the spread picks

Don’t listen to that hack, Vegas Dave!

Hello all you cool cats and kittens. 3-3 last week as I won the Gb/KC teaser, Bills, and Mia/over teaser. Lost the Jags, Lions 1h, and TB/under teaser. which brings me to an overall record of 14-7, 67% for the year. So first week that wasn’t profitable but goddamnit, we’re going to hopefully fix it this week.

First up, Washington Redskins. You might be saying, “Why in tarnation are you giving 2 shits about this game? And I’ll say, “Why are you talking like Yosemite Sam?” Haskins is benched and they’re giving Kyle Allen a shot. This is the THIRD cross country trip for the Rams. Chase Young is back and the Skins play tight defense and have a decent pass rush. You saw the Giants disrupt the Rams last week on offense and the Skins have a better front 7 than the Giants. There aren’t many stats to back up my argument because all recent numbers are with Haskins as QB. Pros bet numbers and +7 is a good spot to grab a home dog. As I said, Rams have logged more miles than Bill Clinton and Donald Trump did to Epstein’s private island. And to boot, the Rams have the Niners next week so this could be a classic trap game.

Take the Skins +7

STOP! Teaser Time! Pittsburgh fresh off a Covid bye and now gets an Eagles team who blew their load with that win in SF. Philly stinks, we all know it. And the Steelers d is solid. They’re going to make Wentz look sillier than an Eagles fan trying to take the SATs. under 5/7 in October. Pittsburgh under 8/11 and 4/5 under vs Philly. One more, 10/13 under vs NFC East. Second half of the teaser. Michael Thomas is now questionable but NO still has 2 CBs that are injured. Justin Herbert gunslinger his way to almost beat the Bucs but Anthony Lynn gives people as much hope as a public defender. Saints looked great in Detroit after being down 14-0 early but made the Lions go from Beverly Hills Cop to Beverly Hills Cop 3. Not much data backing me up except for a few key numbers. Saints are 2-5 ATS at home of late. Now, that’s including without fans this year so far. Also, 1-4 at home against the Chargers but those are all Phillip Rivers numbers. We’re playing the numbers and the Chargers are getting over 2 TDs? That Saints d is ripe to get backdoor so let’s take advantage of that key number

Pitt under 50.5 and Chargers +14.5

Browns just blew up the Cowboys defense. That’s not happening to the Colts D who is top in the NFL. Darius Leonard is out for the Colts but that’s still going to keep the Browns offense curtailed. Rivers has become a game manager and so has Mayfield. No Chubb but Kareem Hunt has stepped in nicely. Browns/Indy under have hit 5/7 and in week 5, 4/5 have gone under.

Browns under 47.5

Seattle is just lighting up scoreboards and finding ways to win. Especially Russell Wilson. I’m not crazy about betting on Kirk Cousins as he’s 12-25 ATS after 4pm EST. Minn 1-5 in Seattle, 1-4 SU against NFC west. Zimmer is 0-2 ATS and SU in Seattle. Now, Minnesota D is also putrid but Seattle secondary has a harder time covering receivers than Pete Davidson does covering his teeth with his lips. Jesus, good thing he has a huge honker because that horse face is tough to look at. Now, Seattle is covering games more than you think. 5-1 ATS and SU of late, 11-4 SU at home. 6-2-1 ATS in week 5 and 5-1 ATS on sundays. You can easily tease this both ways, Seattle laying 1 or Minnesota getting 13. But that Minnesota defense has been BAD of late. Is Seattle going to win at home? Yes. Good, don’t be a hero, just win money. Second leg of the teaser…

Browns 0-5 SU home against Indy but 6-1 SU at home. Browns getting a key number with the teaser. Think they keep it close, under a TD. Add in more of the reasons I cited above for the Browns under. It’s called a correlated parlay when you take a favorite and over or under and underdog. Browns won’t be scoring much which means hopefully they’re keeping it close.

Seattle and Browns +7.5

Yet another teaser: Pitt 8-1 vs NFC east, 10-4 SU, 6-1 SU at home, 5-2 SU in Philadelphia. Pitt 7-1-1 ATS in October. Philly 1-4 ATS. More of the same reasons above why I like Pitt down to -1 and now for a second leg of the teaser…

Why is Atlanta giving points to anyone? ATL 1-4 SU in last 5, 2-7 SU at home. They have dominated Carolina at home, 5-0 ATS but A) that was under Ron Rivera and B) Kyle Allen/Cam Newton were QBing the Panthers. We all know that Falcons defense is worse than Al Pacino’s last 10 movies. Carolina has won their last 2 and 1 of their 2 losses have been by more than a TD. So let’s give ourselves more breathing room and bump up the Panthers…

Pitt -1 and Car +7.5

NFL Championship Weekend ATS picks

gettyimages-166653561-1547831745-640x425

This photo has nothing to do with gambling or the NFL, I’m just excited for a Public Enemy/Wu-Tang tour.

law of av·er·ag·es

noun  

  1. the principle that supposes most future events are likely to balance any past deviation from a presumed average.

 

Here’s what happened last week: The law of averages saw Kevin the Kraut doing 155 

mph in a sleek, red Ferrari on the turnpike with his winning ways.  LOA turns on the 

sirens and pulls over KTK, telling him he needs to slow down. “Slow down?? I will do no 

such thing!” Except I didn’t say that to LOA, I just thought it. “Yes sir, I’ll slow down.  

Thanks for the warning, officer.”  And what happens?  You pull away slowly, staying 

within the speed limit until the officer pulls out and speeds away.  And what do we all

do then?  Fucking floor it.  And that’s what we’re going to do, floor it.  2 more weeks to 

print money, let’s get it.

 

2-2 last week.  Dallas over and KC under both came home.  Unfortunately, both horseface

Andrew Luck lallygagged the shit out of the game.  Did you see him on 4th and goal with

:06 left?  Didn’t get the line set and the game was over.  He took his sweet ass time with a

chance to push the cover but even before that, had his worst game of the year.  He gets a

pass for being rock solid all year long.  Saints didn’t cover either but at least they took out

the garbage from Philly.  71/117 on the year,  61% for the year.  Still rocking and rollin’,

baby.  

 

Lock of the week: one more teaser for the year.  I’ve told you all year long, the Saints are

winning the Superbowl.  They’re insanely great at home, 30 ppg at home except last

week. Yes, Drew Brees looked off last week.  But you know what wasn’t off?  That

defense.  The Saints can run and stop the run.  Saints are 10-5 of late but 1-5 in the last 6.  

Saints at home against the Rams are both 4-2 ATS and SU.  The problem for the Rams is

Goff.  He has 11 TDs and 10 INTs on the road.  The Rams O-line and run game beat Dallas,

Goff didn’t.  Gurley is obviously banged up, CJ Anderson had more carries last week.  

They’re not going to run against the Saints like they did Dallas.  Goff last 3 vs playoff

teams ZERO TDs and 5 INTs.  Obviously, McVay doesn’t trust Goff either as Goff passed 28

times and the ball was run 48 times.  Wow.  You know the Saints in the last 8 games have

the 6th ranked DVOA on defense and 7th for offense?  Lastly, in the last 8 games, the

Saints are giving up  14 ppg.  Big improvement since when they had morbidly obese Rob

Ryan and his mullet in charge of defense.   I said it before and I’ll say it again, Drew Brees 

has one more Superbowl run left in him.  And we’re going to ensure it happens by…

 

Teasing the Saints to +3

 

The Patriots are on the road for the first time in a long time.  I’m sure you’ve seen the 

meme that Mark Sanchez has more road wins than Brady.  Much like Goff last week, 

Brady didn’t win that game…his rushing attack did.  Yes, he dumped off to James White a 

ton but he wasn’t throwing it downfield.  The rushing attack gashed the Chargers and 

didn’t have to force Brady to make a bunch of key throws.  The Pats are 2-5 ATS vs KC but

4-2 ATS in KC.  However, here’s the KEY number: Pats are 1-5 SU in KC.  The KC defense

got me believing in them after they made the Colts look like mares last week.  The only

thing that  scares me is that despite last week, the Chiefs are dead last against the run.  

Now let’s get back on the good side of the Chiefs argument.  Although the Chiefs D is

suspect, they average 17 ppg at home, 34 away.  Eric Berry is questionable and may come

back on defense.  If the Chiefs can bottle up the Pats like they did with the Colts, they can

get the monkey off of Andy Reid’s back.  And we all know during conference

championship weekend that home teams are undefeated the last 10 games.  No teams

has won a Superbowl having played a road game in the playoffs.  More bad news for the

Patriots, Tom Brady’s yards per attempt are sincerely in the dumps.  When Josh Gordon

was on the team and probably smoking tons of weed, Brady had 7.6 yards per attempt.  

Without Gordon, Brady has a 5.6 YPA.  That puts him DEAD LAST in the NFL without

Gordon.  If the Pats can’t run the ball successfully, they’re in trouble.  Last stat: the

Patriots have failed to meet expectations while on the road by a combined 74 points

which is 9 PPG.  Remember, they were 3-5 ATS on the road this year.  And the wins they

had were a bit lucky: the Bears game, the pick 6 against Buffalo, and the Jets game where

the Jets were driving and got to the Pats 6 yd line.  I know betting against the Pats is

usually not a profitable adventure.  But these aren’t the Pats we know and old man Brady

is ready to start going to the movies at 2pm, be in bed by 7:30, and be a lot more

comfortable using racial slurs. 

 

Second half of teaser Chiefs +3

 

Pats under 4/5 on the road, Chiefs are under 11/14.  It’s not going to be as cold as

everyone thought it was going to be, it will be a balmy 24 degrees.  I think that there will

be points but too many as the Pats will be mostly running that ball or relying on the

dump off passes to White.  Of course, the Chiefs are able to score a TD in 3 minutes or

less.  So let’s cross our fingers and hope the score goes…

Under 54.5

NFL Divisional Round Playoffs 2018 Picks ATS

scrooge_mcduck_

My favorite quote is, “A rich man never has to tell anyone he’s rich.”  Everyone’s going to know you’ve got cash/power/whatever you crave by the way you act and carry yourself.  Words to live by.  My second favorite quote is by Walter Payton when asked why he doesn’t do a touchdown dance after scoring and just hands the ball to the ref: “Act like you’ve been there before.”  Brilliant.  You ever sit in first class on a plane and then see the obvious people who’ve never sat there before?  Taking selfies.  Calling their friends, loudly saying how they’re in first class and “OMG, I just got a hot towel and cocktail.  WITHOUT PAYING FOR IT!  Hashtag livin that balla life.”  Yuck.  Act like you’ve been there before.  That’s probably going to be a top 10 highlight of their life.  Which is sad.  You want to be a baller, you want to be part of the big time?  The first step is playing the part.  Act like you’ve been there before.

Even though my picks have been as hot as your sister on prom night, I’m going to implement Walter’s advice.  Even though I’ve hit an ASTRONOMICAL 61% this year, I’m just going to act like I’ve been there before.  Even though I haven’t.  Last year, I was 56%,  Pretty good.    How did I do last week?  Let’s go to the videotape! Wild card weekend, 3-0 (hit the Colts on the money line, Chargers/Seattle teaser, Seattle over) 69 out of 113 for this NFL season.  So let’s keep cashing tickets.  And when we get rich, we don’t mention a goddamn thing about it.  We just carry ourselves in such a manner while swimming in all of that FREEEEEEE MONEY!

Lock of the week:

If you’ve followed me all season, you’re going to know real fast where some of these picks land.  Cause I’m taking 2 teams that have made me a boatload of cash.  Bill Simmons has the best rule of gambling: “Don be a hero, just win money.”  And that’s what we going to do again this week.  Because I love the Saints.  And I love them home AND off a bye.  Drew Brees sat week 17 in a meaningless game.  3 weeks to rest those 40 year old bones.  The Saints are 10-4 ATS of late, 4-2 ATS at home. Saints 4-1 at home vs Philly.  Yeah, I know what you’re going to say.  The Saints offense has slowed down the last month.  You’re right, it did.  BUT how many of those games were at home?  Since 11/18 when they played Philly, they’ve had 4 games at home, one was week 17 where they rested Brees.  What did they score for those 3 home games?  48 vs Philly, 31 vs Atl, and 31 vs Pitt.  Yes, you’re ready to fire out the, “Nick Foles is back, they pulled it out of their ass in Chicago.  Watch them make a run like last year.”  Yeah, they also had home field last year.  Yep, now give me the road warrior argument.  You’re right, my NY Giants did the same thing in 06 and played one home game in 12.  So Philly got lucky with the kick against the Bears.  Do you think they’re going to hold the Saints to 15 points like the Bears?  Remember, they went through at LEAST 10 players in the secondary.  Yes, they’re beginning to gel but do you think they can stop the Saints?  At home?  After they’ve been playing live or die games EVERY week for over a month?  I don’t.  BTW, Saints have gone over with Philly 6/9 and the Saints are 9/13 at home.  Remember what I said about don’t be a hero?  Yeah, I’m going to stack the odds in my favor.  9 and 51.5 are a lot.  So what?  So let’s dance!

I teased the Saints down to -3 and over 45 but you can get them from 8 to 2 now.

The Indianapolis Colts have been a money printing press for my buddy Nick and I this week.  I daresay we’ve lost only 1 game (Jacksonville) when betting them.  They’re 10-1 since week 6.  Didn’t even sweat them on the ML last week against Hou as they went up 14-0 before I finished my first beer. Andrew Luck is playing the same way you bang your wife, lights out.  His red zone stats, stupid.  32 TDs, 1 INT.  He has run the ball way more in the last month; 4/5 games he’s rushed for 5 times or more.  Eric Ebron has more TDs that Ertz and Gronkowski?  Wow.  Marlon Mack has been a godsend to that running game as 3/5 of his last games, he’s ran for over 119 yards.  Now he gets the Chiefs defense who is DEAD LAST vs the run?  Speaking of that KC defense, they’ve given up 28 or more 4 out of their last 6.  Colts defense on the other hand given up 26 points or LESS since week 6.  Oh yeah, it snowed all night and into today in KC.  KC 6/8 under vs Indy and Indy has been under 9/13 on road. KC at home of late is 10/13. The line has dropped 1.5 points in a couple of hours so if you’re liking it, take it NOW.  I know, a dome team in the snow.  Low scoring benefits the Colts and the Chiefs at home, not good.  KC 1-5-1 ATS, 1-4 at home. KC 1-7 ATS home vs Indy.  I love the Colts, they can even win outright.  And I love them a lot more when I…

Tease the Colts to +11.  I also took the under 56.5.  

The cockroaches are out.  That’s right, Dallas fans can survive a nuclear bomb and shit, they may even survive a trip to LA.  The Rams are off the bye but those fans are like Alexandra Ocasio Cortez at a MENSA meeting, not showing up.  Since she’s busy making up numbers about taxing the rich to pay for medicare, I’ll stick to provable numbers.  The Rams have ONE cover at home and of late, 0-5-2 against the number.  4-7-2 overall ATS of late.  And why do they keep talking about Todd Gurley’s health?  If he’s healthy, no one is saying a word.  But they keep bringing it up which means he’s still banged up.  Dallas is another team that has caught lightning at the absolutely right team.  Speaking of, I’m going to shit if Dallas and Philly square off in the championship round.  God, I wish for a pandemic in each of those cities.  Anyway, Dallas is 4-1 SU and ATS at the Rams.  Dallas is 4-2 ATS of late but most importantly, 6-2-1 ATS of late.  They have Zeke Elliot who is going to run through the Rams defense like Leonardo DiCaprio runs through Ford agency models.  Running=controlling the clock.  Dallas is going to keep this close.  One more fun fact that shocked me: Dak Prescott has the MOST game winning drives since 2016.  Impressive, as is getting 7.  But let’s push the odds even more in our favor…

The second half of the teaser is Dallas +13.