Well kids, last week is what I call the law of averages just pulling your pants down and showing you who is still boss. 3-7 last week, udda disasta, ok? Mark Ingram fumbling twice deep in Bears territory prevented me from covering. Travis Benjamin on the Chargers catches a kickoff at the 15 or so and then this dickhead runs backwards and to the left. Want to guess what happens next? A goddamn safety, lost by .5 a point. The Browns scored more than I thought they would so that under was busted but at least the Vikings covered. Seattle won a last minute TD but didn’t cover. I grabbed the Jets under because it was a monsoon and Atlanta on the road is awful. You guessed it, scoring bonanza in the middle of what seemed like a hurricane. It doesn’t help when ATL fumbles deep in their own zone twice as the Jets did once.
Detroit had 1st and goal 3 different times and only came away with 3 points. They kick another FG and I cover. I did take Dallas who easily handled the Redskins and Cincy hit the over with the Colts. As my old man, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. I didn’t pull the trigger on KC nor the over as I got gun shy and both would’ve won. See what a bad weekend does to you? And with the beating I took last week, it felt like I held a grenade for too long between my buttcheeks.
If you took the Jets for the season under 3.5, I feel extremely bad for you because that money line was ridiculously high. But I don’t feel bad for me as I bet the Jets +3 the other night and for once, the secondary football team of NY doesn’t disappoint me. Starting off the week 1-0 so let’s get to the picks:
I’m all in on Drew Brees and his Pangea sized facial birthmark this week. Coach Sean Payton chewed out Ingram on the sidelines for doing his impression of “early years Tiki Barber” and you can bet your ass it’s not happening again this week. The Bucs defense is trash, giving up 5.8 yards per play. And I don’t think Winston’s shoulder is up to snuff yet. The Saints are 8th in passing yds and 8th in passing yards on defense. The only way the Bucs have the shot is running the ball against a bad Saints run defense. No Brent Grimes for the Bucs this week and what do the Saints do well? Air it out. Quick stats for you: Saints are 4-1 ATS, 4-2 home against TB. TB 0-4-1 as well as 1-3-1 on the road. I see Brees and the boys winning by at least a touchdown.
I’m demanding that the Saints get my lost money buck and cover -7
I got stabbed by the Ravens like I was in an SUV with Ray Lewis when I took the Dolphins last Thursday. Matt Moore is like that girl who stands far away in a dark corner in the bar and after a few cocktails, you swear she looks like Heather Graham. But when you commit on the approach and get closer, you see it’s really Billy Graham. Yep, a Billy Graham reference in the picks column. And I’m not even going to google and let you know if he’s alive or not. Baltimore goes into Tennessee with the 30th ranked run defense against the 8th ranked run attack. Flacco (has he regressed big time or what? He looks like someone playing Madden for the first time) is coming off a concussion and will play. Flacco has a 6:8 TD ratio, yuck. He’s my hands down winner for best on the field impression of Colin Kaepernick. Titans are off the bye which gave Mariota and Murray’s hamstrings time to heal. Titans are 6-1 ATS at home, 5-2 ATS home against Bal. Bal is 2-4 ATS and 3-8 ATS on the road.
Take the Titans -3.5
My daughter has recently had awful diarrhea. I’m talking mustard yellow with a smell that even makes the Bronx smell like a tropical rainforest. Why am I sharing this with you? Because I want you to appreciate how I had to live through her taking off her poopy diaper in her bed. And it got all over the place. All. Over. The. Place. And that’s what this week feels like watching some of these games; diarrhea all over the place. Mia/Oak, AZ/SF, Indy/Hou. So what’s one to do when you have a bunch of these games? Take the one game that despite its stench, know exactly where it’s going. And that’s Oakland and Miami. Both teams are an offensive mess. Oakland was supposed to be the king of the AFC west and quite frankly, discounting the KC game, they look like the Jackson Pollack painting my daughter left behind. And we all saw Miami play like the mob kidnapped their family. Oakland has gone under their last 6/8 and 6/9 when playing in Miami. Mia has gone under in their last 6/8 as well. This one has 21-17 written all over it.
Take the under 44
Denver has made a QB change…to Brock Osweiller. HAHAHAHAHA (Wiping tears from my eyes) Yeah, that will fix things. I know Denver has a solid D and Philly is prime for a letdown game. If this game was in Denver, I’d be a bit leery. Denver 1-4 ATS and 0-5 on the road. Philly 5-0 ATS and 5-1 ATS at home. But to quote Ferris Bueller: “A) You can never go too far. B) If I’m gonna get busted, it’s not going to be by a guy like THAT.” Bet on Brock Osweiller, that’s rich. My abs STILL hurt from laughing that hard.
Take the Eagles -7.5
Green Bay is off the bye and the Lions come into town for Hundley part 2. You’re going to think I’m going to make a case for Detroit on the rebound? Nope, I’m done trusting Detroit for awhile. GB on the bye IMMEASURABLY helps Hundley as they probably simplified the playbook for him and they game planned for him for the last 2 weeks. And GB is getting points? At home? Detroit is 1-4 ATS and 2-4 ATS on the road. Det 1-4 playing GB and 1-5 ATS in GB. GB a resounding 24-1 SU at home vs Detroit. And I’m getting points?
Yeah, GB +2.5
And now it’s time for the lock of the week. Usually, when I give picks I have stats supporting my argument. But this week, I’m going against the history. The Rams have lost 7 straight against the Giants, 0-5 ATS. Rams are 2-4 on the road this year but this is more of an anti-Giants pick. In fact, it’s a dead nuts against pick on the Giants. No Jackrabbit Jenkins as he’s suspended indefinitely. Sources say McAdoo has lost the locker room. Maybe he should’ve made a map where it is. Ba-dum, ching! (Puts gun to head and pulls the trigger) Both teams are off the bye which means fresh legs but not anyone noteworthy on the Giants offense except for Ingram and Sheppard. And whoops, Rams are the 2nd best defense against the TE so Ingram will get taken care of. Rams are the 2nd highest scoring team in the NFL and I see a heavy dose of Todd Gurley. I’d rather sit on a casting couch with Kevin Spacey than put money on my NY Giants this season.
Rams in an easy one, -4.5