Super Bowl bets and props!

Tis everyone’s favorite time of year for betting and also the saddest as it’s the end of football.

Not burying the lead so let’s get past the date and head right to the sex in the car at a Chili’s parking lot.

Chiefs -1

Rule 1 when handicapping.  Who has the better QB and head coach?  Chiefs have both.  Here’s another X factor: Sometimes it’s just someone’s time.  Unfortunately, it was just Philly’s time 2 years ago.  Andy Reid has been the bridesmaid a ton of times and never the bride.  I think this is his time.  Can you imagine that feast he’s going to indulge in after a SB win?  He’s going to give Kobayashi and Rebel Wilson a real run for their money.  We all know the Chiefs weakness is their running game BUT in the past few weeks in the playoffs, they’ve shored up their D.  4.3 YPC allowed by KC D which is above average in the NFL.  Derrick Henry didn’t have a rush above 13 yds when they played them 2 weeks ago.  To be fair, that was the 3rd straight week of Henry getting over 30 carries in a game.  He lit up the first half against the Chiefs but was silent for the next 3 quarters.  Surprisingly of late, the Chiefs D has allowed 18 PPG and the Niners allowed 24 PPG.  Niners have also allowed 26.5 PPG in 9 games, ranking them 24th.

We all know Reid after the bye is numero uno.  You know what else is numero uno?  Andy Reid ATS 19-9 ATS and 23-5 SU after the bye.  KC 8-0 SU as well as ATS in a row and of those 8 in a row, they won by at least 7 ppg.  Larger sample size?   14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS.  Mahomes 22-11-2 ATS and 17-11-2 ATS as a favorite.  We all know the Niners play a zone D and how does Maholmes fare against it?  91 QBR…BEST in the NFL.  Super Bowl favorites are 33-19 SU.  Dogs have been ruling of late, 13-5 ATS.  However, since this is a 1 point game, go with the SU numbers.  The SU winner of the SB is 44-6-3 ATS and the underdog has NEVER covered a spread with a line <6.  Higher playoffs seed is 2-13-2 ATS.  Team with the better record of late is 9/10 in the Superbowl.  Niners had 13 wins, Chiefs had 12 wins.  Niners are 3-15 ATS after 2 consecutive ATS wins.

Bottom line is this.  If the Chiefs O Line holds up against a solid Niners pass rush, the Niners are dead.  If he gets out of the pocket, he’s taking off or catching Hill or Hardman on a busted coverage play.  Niners MUST run this ball and take time off the clock to win this game.  I don’t think if they’re down 10 or more that they can come back with Garappolo.  And we know the Chiefs can rally from down a bushel of points.  This isn’t an easy game to call but I’m on the Chiefs for all the reasons and stats above.

Prop bets? Got em.

Tails…never fails.  Just been lucky with it the last several years.

Under 2.5 players that attempt a pass.  I just don’t see either teams’ punters getting cute; especially when Colquitt had issues successfully punting.

Kittle Over 75.5 receiving yds.  Was quiet last week against GB only because they could run the ball down their throats better than Paris Hilton took it down her throat in Predator night vision.

Maholmes over 36.5 rushing yds.  Ran for over 50 in the last 2 games and now faces a zone defense?  Heidy-ho!

I never take props like these but I heard it was in and Vegas is steaming (everyone jumping on it) but PURPLE is the color of the Gatorade in honor of Kobe Bryant.  It went from +600 to -160 so yeah, why not?

More scoring in 2nd half than the 1st half -145

3rd quarter more scoring than 1st quarter. -150

Why?  And why the heavy juice? Chiefs are notoriously slow starters.  Halftime is obviously longer than usual plus teams love to take the governor off and let loose.  Kind of like a bunch of dudes at the Jim McGreevey rest stop, heigh ho!

Good luck and let’s end this season with even more FREEEEEE MONEY!

Superbowl Picks against the Spread

The day all eyes (except communists) are turned to the TV, Superbowl Sunday!  Denver! Carolina!  Cam and the race baiters vs Peyton and the feel good karma.  What say you?  Before we get to the picks, I wanted to say that I created a damn good video (with my daughter) that refuses to upload so you get the article instead.  Thanks Obama.

Carolina -5.5 over/under 44

A little breakdown, why not?  Carolina has the MVP Cam Newton, Greg (the leg, look it up ladies and alternative lifestyle living men) Olsen, and Jonathan Olsen on offense.  Luke Keuchly and Josh Norman head up a ball hawk defense that pull in more sixes than my buddies do during a night out at the bar.  Denver has old man Manning (great name for a Scooby Doo villain), Denaryius Thomas and his jailbird mother, Aqib Talib, and Danny Trevathan head up the #1 defense in the NFL.  

The early money was on Carolina, driving it from an opening line of -3.5 up to 6.  The public drove that line up faster than Hillary Clinton polarizes an audience.  The whales that fly into Vegas the night before started to dump money on the Broncos, dropping it to down to 5, and now it went back up to 5.5  The over/under opened at 45.5 and now it’s dropped down to 44.  Translation: everyone thinks this will be a low scoring event.  Now, if you think Carolina is going to win, it will be in a blowout fashion with the over easily achieved.  If you think Denver is going to win, you probably think it will be a 21-17 type game.  What’s my pick???

Denver +5.5

I know, I was huge on Carolina after they dismantled my Super Bowl pick, the Cardinals.  Here’s why I’m going with Denver.

A) EVERYONE will want Denver to win; it’s the quintessential feel good story.  Peyton’s done, let him go out on the highest note…unless you’re watching the games at home and you’re sick of those goddamn Nationwide/Papa John’s commercials and hoping Peyton gets runs over by a driver with no insurance while eating that awful pizza.

B) The weather is currently 63 degrees which helps Peyton immensely.  But Kevin, he played in 50 degree weather against the Seahawks 2 years ago in the Superbowl.  Yeah but the Carolina D is not the Seahawks team from 2 years ago.

C) The Broncos are looking to grind out the clock and that’s what they did against the Pats.  They can’t keep up in a shootout so look for a lot of running and quick passes.

D) Carolina is notorious for putting up big leads but then giving up the late back door cover.  If Denver does go down by a lot quickly, Carolina will go into soft coverage and probably let some points score.  And remember, Denver doesn’t have to win, just cover.

E) And I saved my best point for last: Carolina has ALREADY planned their victory parade. The kiss of death…only bad things can happen when you do that.

I’m still scratching my head with the over/under and I haven’t put a wager down yet or may not even do so.  I’m waiting for the line to move BUT if I had to pick one now, I’m taking…

The over 44

Superbowls are primarily overs and I think more points will be scored, more like 24-21.  There is LITTLE room for the under and I haven’t seen many recent superbowls, sans my NY Giants vs the Pats, where the under hits.

Prop bets

Number of times Kevin refills his beverage when Coldplay is playing

3.5

OVER

Number of times Kevin yells at the TV, “HOW THE FUCK IS COLDPLAY DOING THE HALFTIME SHOW!  I DON’T KNOW ANYONE WHO OWNS ONE OF THEIR ALBUMS?”

19

OVER

Number of times Kevin wonders aloud why Beyonce married Jay Z when she has plenty of her own money yet her husband looks like a sad catfish.

3

Under, I’m just restating the obvious

Number of minutes Kevin watches the halftime show

5

Under.  I’d rather spend time openly mocking my friend who is a Cowboys fan.