Week 8 NFL picks ATS (against the spread)

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Well, it took 5 weeks but I finally had a losing week as the Falcons shit up a 17 point lead, Fitzpatrick bails out Geno Smith (you read that right), and Minnesota got mauled in Philly.

Seattle played a marathon stinker last sunday night as the game ended in a tie of FGs.  Russell Wilson is banged up but remember the last time I said that, he decimated the Jets.  Whoa, whoa, whoa, stop the clock.  You know who is out for Seattle?  Michael Bennett AND Kam Chancellor.  2 guys that would normally make Drew Brees life hell but not today.  Drew Brees at home AND getting points?  Here’s a stat to make you feel better:  Saints are 28-8 ATS at home after a road loss.  You had me at Drew Brees getting points at home

I’m taking the Saints +2

Raiders have stayed on the east coast after decimating the Jags (then again, who hasn’t?  How Gus Bradley still has a job means he has a considerable amount of blackmail material against the owner).  Derek Carr has been doing not as well this year but well enough to win. Stats?  You got it.  Oak in EST, 9-10 ATS.  Ok, fine.  But Oak this year is 4-0 on the road and TB is 0-4.  Also, Bucs at home are 6-23 straight up, 9-20 ATS.  No Doug Martin and Gerald McCoy is banged up.  Oak is -1, so they just need to pretty much win outright.  Both defenses stink so let’s really capitalize on this.  I’m thinking this has 28-24 written all over it.

I’m taking the Raiders -1 and over 49

I’ve fallen for this several times this year and I’m sure most of you have as well.  The Super Bowl hangover is real.  But goddamnit, if Cam Newton stinks it up after a bye again, you can put the Panthers in the “untrustworthy” category.  Arizona comes to play at 1pm on the east coast so you have that going for you…which is nice.  And they ALSO played 5 quarters in that sunday night stinkaroo.  Are you trusting Carson Palmer on the road?  I’m not

I’m taking Carolina -3

Dallas is off the bye and home.  Dallas has won games because of Elliot, their O line, and D.  Dak Prescott is managing games well; sans the Niners game where he ran all over them, he’s not making huge throws.  Dallas may very well win this game.  BUT…Philly’s D has been shockingly great.  They have some good special teams and yes, Wentz has come a little back to Earth.  Eagles have won their last 3 in Dallas.  And let’s talk ATS, which is nothing like ATM, you perverts.  Dallas is 9 out of their last 34 ATS as a home favorite.  Philly as an underdog vs Dallas is 26-9.  The spread is too high, this game is going to be closer than 5 and Philly can even win outright.

I’m taking Philly +5

I haven’t had one of these in awhile but goddamnit, this is the Lock of the Week.

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We’re back on the Tom Brady, “Fuck you” bandwagon.  I’ll be shocked, shocked, SHOCKED! (Another Mad Dog reference) if Brady doesn’t run them out of their own building.  First meeting this year, Pats were shut out since Michael Dukakis thought he had a chance to win the presidency.  Bellichek isn’t getting swept this year.  And he’s certainly not forgetting the pre-game mini brawl that took place a month ago.  The line has moved up to 6 but I don’t care.  McCoy is probably out, so is Watkins, and Clay is banged up.  Their defense looks like the team North Texas in Necessary Roughness.  Brady and the boys run them out of their own building.

I’m taking the Pats -6

 

NFL Week 7 picks ATS

The hot streak continues!  Last week, your buddy and guru went 3-1-1 with his picks so hope you loaded up.  Full disclosure:  I took the Bears +7.5 on thursday night and Brian Hoyer breaking his arm fucked me but good.  3 straight winning weeks so let’s continue this freeeeee money train.

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This morning, I took the Giants under 45.5 in London.  Case Keenum did he job by handing the game on a silver platter to the Giants by throwing 4 picks.  So this puts me up 1-1 going into the 1pm games

As my friend Paul said 2 weeks ago and I’m sticking to it, “I’ll stop betting Minnesota when a team can score more than 14 against them.”  Eagles off a bad loss and home for this one.  Carson Wentz is slowly being figured out by the league and let’s not also forget the revenge factor for Sam Bradford.  He was traded before the season when Bridgewater went down and was a malcontent in Philly.  Now, he’s risen like a Phoenix from the ashes and been nothing but consistent.  Revenge factor + off a bye week=

I’m taking the Vikings -3

The Jets are trash.  Tomorrow’s newsboy sales pitch: “Extra, extra, mouth breathers from Queens jumping off the Whitestone bridge.”  Jets are -69 in scoring differential.  Forte has been a non-factor since week 2.  That secondary has been flambeed, scorched, and stepped on.  No Decker and Geno Smith is now the starting QB.  Yuck.  Yes, Joe Flacco is a little nicked up but I’m getting 2 points against Geno Smith??  Yes, please!

I’m taking Bal +2

Remember gambling rule 1: Don’t be a hero, just win $.  This has been a tough week for picks which is why I’m only taking 4 games.  I debated about Oak +2 but for some reason, that game yells, “stay away.” Also debated about NE -7.5 in Pitt without Big Ben.  Also felt that could be problematic.  So, here’s the final pick:  Atlanta got FUCKED in Seattle with a non-call for pass interference.  They’re coming home and playing SD who has had 10 days to prepare.  SD has been playing teams tight, they’re sneaky good ATS.  A lot of expert picks have SD covering again.  But this is the week that comes to a halt.  Atlanta has been flying high and to have their wings clipped in such a fashion last week (I had Sea -6.5, didn’t cover), they’ll be pissed and will air it out at home.  SD can keep it close but not closer than a TD against the Falcons

I’m taking Atl -6

 

Ten Commandments of Wearing Jerseys to Sporting Events

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My father was NOT into sports AT ALL.  He could give 2 shits about who wins the World Series, Superbowl, but he always had a financial rooting interest in the Bud Bowls.  My brother and I got into sports and once a year, my father would take us to a Yanks or Mets game.  We would alternate years where we would go to the scary Bronx or Chop Shop Central Queens.  I’m the ardent Yanks fan and my brother was a closeted homosexual Mets Fan.  We would have a “man day” where my dad would get some solid field level seats and then we would eat garbage food that was 5 times the value of the tickets.  Thankfully, our metabolisms could’ve been bottled and sold to aspiring models/singers and we would’ve been multimillionaires.  Instead, I’m writing a dopey blog on a Saturday afternoon while my 1 year old daughter takes a nap.  I’m hoping I finish this article AND can squeeze in a trip to the gym before she wakes.  Hello time management, goodbye reckless boozing and womanizing.  Unless you have a shitload of money and pay off your wife with gaudy shopping trips to look the other way while you philander; welcome to married life, boys!

 

I still enjoy going to games for the camaraderie, catching up with buddies over a few cocktails, and watching the games from different angles.  But after going to many games over the years, I’m mystified that some people just don’t have any proper jersey decorum.  Like I said before, my dad doesn’t give a shit about sports but somehow, I learned through life what is the proper attire and how to wear it at the games.  So don’t blame this on being having a single mother in your household.  And if you are “that guy,” pay for your buddy to get an uber so he can come over and slap you repeatedly in the face.  Yes, I get it.  This is a first world problem and people who aren’t into sports could give 2 shits.  But god forbid if you don’t remember what Rachel from Friends favorite color is.

  1. Thou shall not be the douchebag who insists on wearing a full uniform of a team that isn’t even playing at the game you’re attending.  You want to wear your team’s hat so you can rep your team, fine.  But to wear head to toe apparel like you think you’re playing left field and batting 5th?  I was at a Yankees/A’s game and 4 dildos from Philly are wearing head to toe Philthies gear.  I asked them why are they wearing Salvation Army clothing to a Yankees game.  They said, “We have to represent our team.”  I told them that their awful Philly accents represents them just fine.  You’re a clown and just there to stir up a shit storm.  You fully deserve it when you get pelted with synthetic nacho cheese, leftover garlic fries, and a lukewarm $12 Budweiser.  
  2. Thou shall not be the cheap fuck who wears an obvious sponsored giveaway jersey to multiple games.  If you’re coming from the office and want to throw on a shirt they give you which has Stop N Shop logos plastered all over it like it was a NASCAR race, fine.  But to wear that to every game?  Pony up the $100 bucks for a decent replica and fit in with everyone.  Otherwise, you’ll be subjected to people like me yelling, “Hey Stop n Shop, cleanup in aisle 8!”
  3. Thou shall not be the relatively cheap fuck who wears a player’s jersey who turned out to be an absolute abortion.  The turnaround time to get rid of that jersey is 3 years.  I have a buddy who still wore his Kevin Boss (mediocre TE for the NY Giants) for YEARS after he retired/forced out/blows his brains out under an overpass in 15 years from CTE.  Look, I had a Jason Sehorn jersey (white CB for the Giants that A) was awesome till he blew his knee out returning a kickoff in a fucking preseason game and B) married that piece of ass, Angie Harmon) but I got rid of it when he was chasing wide receivers and his pants were falling to his ankles.  I smartly jumped on the Eli Manning bandwagon the second he got drafted.  Figured I’d go all in on the eventual franchise QB.  And if you have guys who obviously were hall of famers or solid contributors, by all means keep wearing them.   But if you buy someone that’s a rookie that didn’t pan out or a free agent that did his best work on another team and came to your team as a last resort (Jerry Rice on the Raiders, Ray Borque on the Avalanche), cut that shit out.
  4. Thou shall not be the, “My wife/kids bought this jersey for me” guy.  I’m talking about people who put #1 Dad or your last name on the back of their jerseys.  No, you’re not the number 1 dad in the world.  That’s because that title is held by Ferris Bueller’s dad.  Checked on his kid while he was sick, bought him a computer and his sister a car, and came home at 6 sharp as promised.  And if your wife or kids really knew and loved you, they would know that makes you look stupid and they would put your favorite player on the back of the jersey.  If my daughter wanted to get me a second Yankees jersey, my wife would tell her that it’s going to be a Jeter or Mariano, Not #1 Daddy.  Or putting your own name on the back of that jersey.  This isn’t t-ball, you child.  You didn’t play a down or throw a single pitch in the majors.  What you’ve done is given everyone within a 3 section radius to fuck with you for the ENTIRE game. Do you really want to hear, “Hey Sanderson, your sister had corn last night for dinner!  Just thought you should know!” Cut that shit out.
  5. Thou shall not be a Yankee fan that wears a jersey with a players name on the back.  We’re the only one that doesn’t do names on the back in the name of tradition.  Again, spend the extra bucks and get a real jersey.  You look dopey, cut that shit out.
  6. Thou shall stop it with the gimmick jerseys.  These teams milk the shit out of us as it is.  You’re going to get a camouflage home jersey because it’s the newest and you have to get it? You look like a child soldier in Sierra Leone with that jersey and those jean shorts.  Those awful neon colored jersey?  This isn’t Miami circa 1984, cut that shit out. 
  7. Thall shall stop it with the film character names on the back of jerseys.  I’m talking to you Costanza on the back of a Yankees jersey, Hansen on a Chiefs jersey, or Griswold on the back of a Blackhawks jersey.  We get it, you’re a Seinfeld, Slap Shot,  or a Vacation fan.  That’s not even a deep cut reference that can really be appreciated.  willie beamen. Now that’s at least a little off the beaten path.
  8. Thou shall not be the dickbag that wears a hat or jersey and when asked about said clothing, “Oh, I’m not a fan of the team, I just like the colors.”  Aww, how cute Ralph Lauren.  You’re making sure you’re avoiding the fashion police at a ball game.  This is the one place no one is judging people’s style.  Hell, the Eagles fans made Zubazz pants popular in that city inhabited by mouth breathers.  You don’t need to be on the cover of GQ while you eat a dirty water hot dog and suck down a $12 bud light.  Both of which I don’t consume because they’re gross. I eat before I go to the game because I refuse to pay top dollar for bottom feeding food.
  9. Thou shall not be a cheap bastard that takes masking tape and writes a current players name on the jersey of a shitty player with the same number.  
  10. And finally, thou shall not be that guy that tucks his jersey into his pants.  Hey Steve Urkel, let loose.  You’re at a game, not a board meeting, so relax.

When Kevin isn’t belittling someone for breaking one of these social mores, he’s playing with his daughter, telling jokes in NYC (Book him at Kgootee23@gmail.com), or working on his show: Comics Watching Comics (www.comicswatchingcomics.com)

NFL Week 6 picks ATS

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5-4-1 last week kids which makes it 2 weeks in a row of being a winner.  Let’s see if we can build on 2 winning weeks:

As the old saying goes, you learn by getting burned.  I learned to NEVER go against Bellichek at home, even when he’s trotting out a 3rd string QB.  Pats are fresh off of a Tom Brady-led thrashing of Cleveland.  Now he’s back home against the Bengals who are fresh off of getting demolished in Dallas.  The Bengals haven’t shown me shit except for they can beat Miami.  Whoopty-fucking-do, so can me and 10 other comedian friends of mine.  Brady’s first home game after deflate gate and if you don’t think that crowd won’t be bloodthirsty like the ones of the Roman Colliseum, you must be wondering how the Massholes got their name.  Tyler Eiffert out for Cincy and Edelman as well as Blount are questionable but I would expect they’re going.  The line is now NE -7.5 and the Pats are 30-10 ATS while at home when the line is <10.  Cincy defense hasn’t been as special as it was in years past and did I mention Tom Brady is still in “Fuck You” mode?

I’m taking the Pats -7.5

Saints are back from the bye and in marches in a wounded Panthers team.  Saints D is worse than white dogshit and the Panthers D ain’t what it was a year ago.  Fun fact: Carolina is 11-4 ATS in NO which makes me take pause.  The line is hovering around 2.5 and if it were to get to 3.5, I may be inclined to take the Saints.  But rule #1 of gambling is don’t be a hero, just win money.  And I think the over of 53.5 is certainly attainable.  

I’m taking Saints over 53

The Browns are bad.  But when you break it down, they’ve lost in double digits to 2 decent teams and nearly beat 2 average teams.  And we all had Miami as the suicide pick with our collective assholes puckered when the Browns lost in OT. The Titans are by no means good.  Browns have a few guys who are questionable but this line is wayyyy high.  I’m talking Snoop Dogg on 4/20 at 4:20 high.  You want evidence?  Fine, Tennessee has covered in FOUR of their last 23 home games.  Now, if you can lock it in now at +7 or above, do it!  It may drop closer to game time.  A lot of people are putting Tennessee as their suicide pick and I didn’t because this screams trap game.  And do you want to put your faith in the Titans?  Not me.  I should say that I’m not loading up on this game and nor should you.

I’m taking the Browns +7

Death, taxes, and Andy Reid off the bye.  Reid is 19-3 SU and 16-6 ATS after the week off and he goes into the Black Hole where the Raiders have been hot.  Raiders D is cold diarrhea but that offense is delightful.  The lines range from 1.5-2.5 and you better believe the Chiefs are playing ball control.  No way then can match scores with Oakland.  But everyone rested up for the Chiefs and they can win by a FG.  The cholos in Oakland go home disappointed as KC pulls out a road win.

I’m taking KC +2

The statement game of the week: Are the Falcons as good as people are starting to think?  I think they’re good but this is the ultimate test.  Russell Wilson destroyed the Jets secondary with a gimpy leg and now he’s had a bye to rest up.  Let’s also add that the Hawks are home.  Now, the Falcons went into Denver and just manhandled that vaunted Denver D.  But I think Sea off the bye and home is too much for the Falcons.  The line is a manageable -6 and let’s remember we’re a short memory away from Matt Ryan throwing picks like Slash at the end of a concert.  Take a moment, you’ll get that joke.

I’m taking Sea -6

If you took Andrew Luck in fantasy, that sucks to be you.  He’s been sacked 20 times already in 5 games.  Lamar Miller HAS to break out sometime and no better time than against an awful Indy D who’s allowing a robust 29.6 a game.  Indy D gives it up more than a teenage runaway in a bus stop bathroom.  2 more fun facts: Indy is 0-3 ATS on the road this year.  Hou is 3-0 ATS when at home.  

I’m taking Hou -3

 

Week 5 picks ATS

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Finally, a winning week last week.  This guy went 5-2 and took the Giants under to close out a successful week.  I did take the under of thursday night’s Niners game.  Fucking 7-7 at the half and then those 2 teams decided to have an offensive orgy, handing me a loss.  Oh well, let’s get to the picks this week.

As my friend Paul says, “I’m taking the Vikings until someone scores more than 14 points against them.”  And I just don’t see any fault in his logic.  I wanted to bet the Vikes on monday night but that’s just bad form betting against your own team.  Would’ve been right, that’s for sure.  Vikes are at Houston and I don’t see Brock Osweiler deciding to stop throwing INTs.  The line is -6.5 so if you can sneak in before the line goes to -7, I advise you do so.  Sam Bradford is playing fantastically and is due for a stinker but not against a JJ Watt-less defense.

I’m taking the Vikings -6.5

You’re going to see a theme now so let’s see if you dum-dums can figure it out:

Tennessee is in Miami after Hurricane Matthew ravaged that coastline.  The temperature is a balmy 86 degrees so that game is going on unaffected.  The weather is the only thing that town has going for them.  Miami is garbage, they barely beat the Browns for their only win of the year.  Tannehill is so awful that Brian Griese is shaking his head in disgust.  Tennessee is decent and they’re getting 3.  I’m applying Paul’s logic here: until Miami beats somebody besides the Browns, I’m going against them.

I’m taking the Titans +3

The aforementioned NY football Giants have played uninspiring football the last 2 weeks.  Eli’s house of horrors has always been Minnesota and they flat out gave away the game to Washington.  I’m a stats guy and the Giants OWN Green Bay.  Home, away, neutral site, or hell, even in Ecuador.  Packers haven’t been that good either.  My lock of the week was GB -6.5 2 weeks ago and Detroit roared back in garbage time to cut the lead to 7…in Lambeau. GB is off an early bye but Sam Shields is out.  This should be OBJ’s coming out party unless he turns into a weeping mess if someone gets into his head.  You may want to take the Giants on the money line and really capitalize but the line is -7.  Giants needs to get off their ass and dial up the pass rush, you hear me Spagnuolo?  We bought all of these guys in the off season, let’s utilize them for what they do best.

I’m taking the Giants +7

Baltimore hasn’t beaten anyone by more than 3 points all year.  The Skins can put up points and the Bal D isn’t scaring anyone.  The line is Bal -3.5 and the Skins have looked good since coming back against my Giants.  Rivalry game and I think the Skins play them tight and may possibly win.

I’m taking the Skins +3.5

The Colts suck.  The Colts sucked against Jacksonville in London last week.  Hope you listened to me and took the over!  The Colts are coming back home and passed on an early bye.  The Colts defense sucks; they’ve given up 30+ points in each of their losses.  The Bears aren’t an offensive juggernaut either but have been better with Hoyer under center.  Jordan Howard had a nice game last week and no reason he can’t run against a garbage front 7 of the Colts.  I think the Bears play this tight and Indy coming straight home after London without a bye should not bode well for the Colts.

I’m taking the Bears +4.5

I’ll see Hillary Clinton’s penis before I see the Chargers and Raiders play solid defense.  SD without their top corner and gosh, does it matter?  This is going to be a shootout and that’s that.

I’m taking SD over 51

Fantasy Football Draft #2 recap.

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Well, you’re either a fantasy football junkie, an advice seeker, or back to shit on my draft.  Either way, welcome back.  Draft #2 was on August 24th and here’s my team.

Yet again, I had the 3rd overall pick.

1st pick: Antonio Brown.  Yep, you read that right.  My buddy (fellow Giants fan) wanted OBJ because he loves him and the guy who was going #2 wanted him so he snaked him.  But I’ll GLADLY take AB at 3, he’s a goddamn beast.

2nd pick: Allen Robinson.  He absolutely blew up last year and a lot was because Blake Bortles put up great garbage time numbers.  I don’t care, he’s nasty and I’ll gladly have a slight decline in numbers because he’s still a top 5-10 WR.

3rd pick: Amari Cooper.  Smell a theme?  Yeah, I’ll double down on Cooper in another league.  Remember, Oak WR face the 2nd most favorable match ups against shitty CBs. Yet again, I have a NASTY trio of WRs.

4th pick: Thomas Rawls.  Had to get the best RB left on the board.  Coming off an injury and the Hawks do run that ball quite often…

5th pick: Jeremy Langford.  No real competition and he shakes off last season’s rust and runs with this opportunity.  Passed on Matt Forte because he’s old and banged up…

6th pick: John Brown.  In case you missed it, Carson Palmer throws a lot.  And the end is coming very soon for Fitzgerald, despite last year’s Phoenix-like return to greatness.  Michael Floyd is injured often so I’m going with the guy who can straight out haul ass.

7th pick: Frank Gore.  Doubled down on Gore because I wasn’t going with Giovani Bernard and it was too early to go on a QB not named Rogers, Wilson, or Newton (all of which were taken by now.  Although it didn’t stop one guy from taken my boy Eli in this round…)

8th pick: Kevin White.  Rookie year, injured.  He’s the number 2 WR on a team where the #1 gets injured regularly.  And Jay Cutler likes to throw too…mostly to the other team but once in awhile, he’ll find his man by mistake.

9th pick: Derek Carr.  Made a leap last year and yet again, 2nd easiest schedule vs CBs.  Doesn’t hurt that I have his #1 target either so might as well double dip with the connection.

10th pick: Zack Ertz.  I think this was the steal of the draft.  Yes, this guy is always touted as a breakout candidate but no more Chip Kelly and maybe a new rookie QB in a few weeks.  TE are usually the safety valve so what the fuck…

11th pick: Sammie Coates: Doubled down on him again because Ben will have at least 2 games where he throws for close to 500 yds and AB can’t get them all.  Markus Wheaton is trash and this kid is gonna get those #2 targets.

12th pick: Tevin Coleman: If this guy doesn’t get injured last year, Devonta Freeman is a nobody.  He’s healthy and they ran the shit out of Freeman last year.  And believe it or not, a few dummies have started to take defenses and kickers in this round.  Thanks for the donations!

13th pick: Jameis Winston: Backup QB and he faces the Bears D.  Good enough for me.

14th pick: Brandon McManus: Second to last round so time for a kicker.

15th pick: Patriots D: Last pick and these guys get their fair share of DST TDs

Thanks for reading and share with a friend.  Follow me on twitter @KevinGootee and stay tuned during the NFL season for ATS pick!