Tag: Fantasy Football

NFL picks ATS week 3

Kyler Murray is the highest scoring fantasy qb and if you think Jax defense is stopping him and his cadre of weapons, go ahead and fill in any axiom or cliche you want to here. Zona 4-2 SU of late, but 3-8 ATS. Jags are 1-5 ATS in last 6, 0-10 SU of late and 0-8 SU at home. Jags also 1-4 ATS as a dog. The 7 or 7.5 may scare you away and I get why but man, Jags have shown less fight than a bunch of larpers at a UFC gym. Wouldn’t shock anyone if Urban Meyer quit midseason and took the USC job. I cheated and teased this baby to 1.5 so I could take advantage of another number…

I grabbed this line when it was TB GETTING 1.5. I don’t know who wins (probably Bucs) but I don’t care. Neither team is losing by more than a TD with those defenses so ripe for a backdoor plucking. You can tease the Rams to +7.5 now and I’d feel just as confident about that pick as this one. Bucs 4-1 ATS of late, 10-0 SU as well. Rams 4-1 SU of late but again, no one is losing by more than a TD

Arizona -1.5 and TB +7.5

Carolina already covered so let’s make this reallllly easily. The Lions were giving the Packers a bit of fits last week late but I see the Ravens just running the ball down their throats. Bad 8-2 ATS in last 10, 7-2 SU, 4-1 ATS and SU against Det. Ravens off an emotionally high game against the Chiefs, Lions off a MNF loss. Lions are 0-6 of late, 0-5 SU at home. Let’s make this game a virtual pick em as Lamar and company run through the Lions D like bad jokes run through Amy Schumer’s mouth. Already hit Car so halfway home already.

Carolina -1.5 and Bal -1.5

One of my 3 losses last week, the Chiefs fumbled away late with a chance to win the game w FG and hit that ML bet for me. That Chiefs defense is scary awful now, like watching Rosie O Donnell’s taint getting waxed. We all know the Chiefs can’t cover a spread but they sure can win outright, especially after a loss. Chargers 5-1 ATS, 5-1 SU, 5-10 ATS in KC, 2-12 SU in KC. KC 1-6 ATS and 13-3 SU of late, 16-2 at home. So what we’re doing this weekend is some good ol middling trickery: I’m teasing the Bills down to -.5 so a virtual pick em and you’ll see what I did with another teaser…

Buffalo depantsed Miami like it was 7th grade gym glass and then a dodgeball right in its face. Now, we know they’re not going to do that to the WFT but I’m damn sure the Bills are going to win. Wash is 1-4 ATS in last 5, 2-4 SU in last 6, 1-7 ATS and SU against Buffalo. That Wash defense got gashed by the Giants, the GIANTS for chrissakes. Too bad the Giants got burned on that offsides call (watch the replay, he timed that snap perfectly) Bills are 10-3 ATS of late, 9-2 SU, 7-1 SU at home. Also, 6-0 vs NFC opponents. Bills are going to win but when I locked in, it was 8.5. Now it’s 7 and the wise players milked that value and I should’ve done the same as Wash is covering that TD plus spread. But I made this the other half of my teaser and knocked the Bills down to 2.5

Bills -2.5 and Chiefs -.5

STOP! Teaser time! Cincy under 6/9 and under vs pitt 4/6. Pitt under 5/7 in September. Ben is banged up but also, so is Watt and Naismith who are both sitting due to injuries. These are always tight games despite them missing 2 key guys on defense. The Pitt offense hasn’t wowed anyone in awhile and with Ben throwing like Anthony Fauci’s first pitch, I don’t have faith in a lot of scoring. But I like this a lot more up to 49.5 so here’s the first leg of a teaser…

And now, here’s the opposite of a low scoring game, HIGH scoring. And both the Bucs and Rams defenses have more scoring than a Pai Gow table. Rams have scored this seasons 27 and 34, Bucs 48 and 31. Neither defense inspires confidence: TB has gone over 5/7 of late, 5/6 vs NFC and 4/5 vs NFC west. Rams 4/5 over of late, 4/5 vs TB and 5/6 over in September. 55.5 is an insane number to bet on so let’s take those 6 points from the other teaser and cross our fingers it is a 27-24 or better game.

Pitt under 49.5 and Bucs over 49.5

Already hit Carolina on Thursday night and explained above why the other 2 are top plays.

3 way ml parlay Car, Chiefs, Bills,

3 way ml parlay Az, Ravens, Broncos,

Already explained above why I love the Ravens in a teaser so much that I did another one and decided to middle the shit out of the Chiefs game. As also mentioned before, the Chiefs win outright but 1-6 ATS of late but 13-3 SU, 16-2 SU at home. Their defense is worse than any Wes Anderson film but at least you’ll enjoy watching football vs a Wes Anderson film. So by middling with 2 teasers, that puts me at the Chargers +13. Chargers should’ve won the game against Dallas last week and I think they play their division rival tight. I’d be shocked, shocked, SHOCKED if they lost by more than 2 TDs

Ravens -1.5 and Chargers +13

I trust Atlanta like I would trust random women in Vegas who says, “it’s ok if you don’t wear a condom.” Yeah, right. ATL giving up 40 ppg in this young season. ATL 2-5 ATS and 0-5 SU on the road of late. ATL 1-6 in September and the Giants OWN them. Giants 4-0-1 ATS against the NFC south and oh yeah, today is Eli’s number being retired. If not now, when? The Giants HAVE to win this or kiss the season goodbye. Hey Daniel Jones…on your left.

Giants -3

This one JUMPED out at me from the get go. I had the Minn over last week teased and hit by HALFTIME last week and wow, they can’t kick a meaningful FG with the game on the line AT ALL. But they’re the best 0-2 team out there and man, this is the week for a win. That Seattle defense is porous; just ask Derrick Henry last week as he gang banged them like TT Boy during a casting couch session last week. This game has shootout written all over it and that plays perfectly to this teaser. : Seattle is 1-6 ATS on the road and 1-5 ATS vs NFC. I don’t care that the Seahawks have done well ATS against the Vikings of late, 1-5. But Sea stinks on the road and let’s take 6 points and make this better than a TD game. And backing up my over claim? Minn over is 5/5 of late, 8/9 at home. Minn 5-1 ATS in week 3. Bring that total down and Vikes EASILY cover, if not win outright.

Vikings +8 and over 49.5

Goddamn, I hate ever having to root for them but I like Philly this week in Dallas. Dallas 1-5 ATS against NFC east teams but 4-1 ATS against Philly. The key is the Eagles getting the 3.5, I think this is a FG better and who would be shocked if Philly went in there and won? McCarthy almost gagged up last week’s game against the Chargers, he fucked up against Bucs when he left too much time on the clock and Brady came right down the field on them. The historical numbers don’t back up this play but I’m calling it a hunch and again, the number is right.

Eagles +3.5

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NFL Week 8 picks ATS

Hey everyone,

I’ve been lazy with the picks on the blog of late as I’m trying to force you to watch everyone’s favorite fantasy football/gambling show, Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber.  Here’s the link to make it easy on you lunkheads: FFJK FB page.  And for the love of god, we need some help.  We’re no longer with Be Terrific so we’re going to have to start funding everything out of our own pockets.  So if you’d be so kind to take us up on our services such as we’ll do your daily fantasy lineup for you or give you access to my top plays of the week, that would help out with the expenses.  For love of God, we have made you a TON of free money.  You’d be doing us a solid; here’s the link to do so: FFJJ Patreon

ATL is 0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS, 1-6 ATS.  1-4 ATS vs NFC and 3-7 SU in October.  Matt Ryan with limited practice all week after leaving the game early against an angry Seattle team who got curb stomped.  Sea 7-1 ATS on the road, 11-4 SU of late.  Cincy 1-4-1 vs the Rams, 0-9 SU on the road.  Rams 9-3 ATS and stayed in Georgia holding a minicamp and not going back west to have to fly over to London.

Sea in a teaser with the Rams.  Sea to -1 and Rams to -6

GB 2-6 SU and ATS against KC.  2-4 SU in KC.   Fun fact, Rodgers .500 ATS on the road.  Andy Reid now has an 3 extra prep days.  Matt Moore 20-10 ATS as a starter.  KC 12-5 SU at home and 5-2 SU of late.  KC will run the ball at the awful GB run defense and keep the ball out of Rodgers’s hands.

KC +3.5

Explain to me how a backup QB is laying TWO TDs and I don’t care it’s at home.  Miami 2-7 ATS of late, 0-9 SU of late.  But they’re 4-2 ATS against Pitt, 1-4 SU in Pitt.  Wayyyy too many points for Mason Rudolph who just came back from a Mortal Kombat fatality.  Dolphins almost upset the Bills last week; they’re not lying down at all.  Pitt has yet to score 27.  Home teams 18-21-2 home teams off a bye  Fitzpatrick gets them fired up to cover.

Dolphins +14.5

 

 

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NFL Picks Week 2 Against the Spread

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Guttentag!  I’m back from Vegas after a 5-3 weekend: hitting Denver under, Packers, Vikings under, Pats under, and Baltimore.  Lost the KC under, Dal/Sea teaser (Dalton throw for over 400 yds in Seattle???), and Denver.  This year, we’re still doing the picks with the Cookie Monster on Facebook but I’m not giving you all of my picks.  I’ll give you some of the ones I really like but I’m saving those for the Patreon account.  Yes, I’ve sold out because A) We need seed money to promote Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber and B) I was 61% against the spread last year.  I made you a lot of money last year, why the hell can’t I get paid for my services?  So for $50 a week, you get my locks of the week.  And that money goes right back into Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber.  If you want fantasy football advice or we’ll do your DFS game, here is the link for the Patreon info:  https://www.patreon.com/fantaryfootballjibberjabber

Venmo me @Kevin-Gootee $50 and I’ll give you my locks of the week.  I’ll post the screenshot of my picks from previous week so you can verify that I’m telling the truth.  And here are 3 picks I’m liking this week.

Cluster injuries for Chargers.  Derwin James out, Mike Williams is a ?, Russel Okun out, and Hunter Henry is out. Chargers 2-4 SU in Det.  West coast team coming east for a 1pm game after playing OT on Sunday.  Houston 11-4 SU in last 15, 4-1 SU home vs Jax,  Jax 1-4 ATS, 2-11 SU, 2-8 SU vs Hou, 1-4 SU in Hou. Detroit also played to a tie against Arizona.  Not happy if you’re a Lions fan but happy if you have AZ under 5 for the year as I do!  Backup QB Gardner Minshew (perfect name for a yacht club or rowing crew guy) is back under center after looking respectful, albeit against a porous KC defense.  Houston just coming off a monday night heartbreaker after losing via the last second field goal shall come home and rebound.  If they can’t win by 2 or more, they should bring in Dr Watson from Sherlock Holmes and fire Deshaun Watson.

Teaser: 7 point teaser Houston down to -2 and Detroit +9.5

Because Sam Darnold must have licked a subway pole to get mono or he’s making out with women on the Hampton Jitney, I’m taking the Brownies.  If Baker Mayfield wants to earn some of that hype, he better win and cover after getting blown out.  Some stats to back up my argument. Jets are 2-8-1 in last 11 and 1-10 SU.  Jets 4-11-1 vs AFC.  Jets 6/9 under VS Cle and 6/9 in September and 4/6 on a Monday.  Just remember, all Odell Beckham Jr has to do is take that 350k watch and reflect the stadium lights into the eyes of the CB in front of him.  

Cle -6.5. 

Atlanta is 9-1 SU in week 2 games.  Big fact.  Atlanta got embarrassed last week against Minnesota (had the under, you’re welcome) and now they’re home.  Yes 2-5 at home and 2-7 ATS but the Eagles lost Malik Jackson and rallied to beat the Skins.  BUT PHILLY JUST LET CASE KEENUM THROW FOR 385 YDS AGAINST THEM.  Teasing up the Falcons to 8 is a key number and I highly doubt they lose by more than a TD.  Denver up to 8.5 because who knows the Bears better than Vic Fangio?  Den 6-0 SU vs NFC north.  Trubisky in Denver? No thank you.

6 points teaser: Den to +8.5, ATL to +8.

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NFL week 12 picks ATS

There are moments in your life where you catch such fire, you feel like an immortal Highlander.  You CAN’T lose.  You’re playing blackjack and have a 5 way split, all with double downs.  The dealer busts.  EUPHORIA.  You’re playing poker and get hit the nut flush on the river and your opponent shoves all in.  SPIKE OF ADRENALINE.  You can’t call fast enough.  You’re in a Vegas club, meet a 10, and she can’t even wait to get back to your room…she wants to fuck in the elevator.  YOU CAN’T SEND OUT A BRAGGING GROUP TEXT TO YOUR BUDDIES FAST ENOUGH.  Then, like Robert DeNiro tells Al Pacino in the amazing film, Heat.  “There’s a flip side to this coin.”  You’re at that same blackjack table, draw to 19, and the dealer draws 7 to 21.  COLD PANG OF DESPAIR.  You’re at that same poker table, hit a straight, and shove all in.  As you announce straight, your opponent says, “To what?” And then shows the higher straight.  ACHING FEELING IN THE BALLS.  You’re in that same club in Vegas, meet a 7 in a club, go back to your room and wake up the following morning and then remember how you raw dogged.  Oh yeah what were those mysterious bumps down there??  COLD SHIVERS UP YOUR BUTTHOLE.

And that’s what the last 2 weeks have been for me.  5-10 in the last 2 weeks, including last night’s New Orleans under 60 win.  Now, I’m 40-34 for 54% YTD.  Jesus Christ, I was 59% a few weeks ago at a tally of 35-24.  

Let’s see if we can get off the slide and so far, we’re looking good at a 1-0 start for the week. BTW, go out right now and get a New Orleans Saints to win the Super Bowl at +250.  Lowest number on the board for the sole reason of THEY’RE GOING TO WIN THE SUPERBOWL.  Drew Brees is going to go out on top and he has an alright defense for once.  No one is coming into that dome and knocking them off.  

Week 12, here we go.  Diiiiiicks out.

Lock of the week is:

I know I said on Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber this week (Yep, I’ll shoehorn a plug in for my show.) 

that my lock of the week is the Carolina over 46.5.  I still kind of like the call but I like Carolina -3 a lot more.  Why?  Carolina is 14th against the run but 24th against the pass.  Panthers are the 3rd best running team in the NFL.  Seattle defense isn’t that great against the run, 20th in the NFL but 6th vs the pass.  So logic dictates that Carolina is going to be running the ball more, therefore eating more clock up.  Also, this is the typical “west coast team flying to play a 1pm game.”  The Seahawks have gone 5/6 under of late and Seattle plays to the under 5/6 in Carolina.  More stats? Sure, you’re not paying for this curated info.  Seattle is 2-4 ATS in Carolina, 1-3-1 against Carolina.  And at home, Carolina is a whole new animal, 4-1 ATS.  I could still make an argument for the O/U as it’s low-ish at 47.5 but I feel more comfortable putting my money on (and I did) with

Taking Carolina -3

The Giants under was one of the 5 losses I had.  And who could blame me?  When was the last time the Giants dropped 30 on anyone?  When Obama was president.  When it was still ok to be a straight white guy.  When you could fly on an airplane without getting your ass whooped or your pets killed.  Don’t look now but that’s 2 straight overs for the Giants.  Scored 38 and 27 points in their last 2 and now facing a completely decimated Eagles secondary?  Sign me up.  Barkley almost had 100 rushing on top of his over 100 receiving.  Beckham with 3 TDs in his last 2 games.  The Eagles just finished wiping the Saints’s jizz off from all over their asses from last Sunday.  The only problem is that Philly has always been a house of horrors for the Giants.  Giants are 1-5 SU in Philly, 2-4 ATS.  Good news: Giants are 5/5 over against Garbage Town, USA.  Although they’re 6/8 under in Philly and Philly itself is 4/5 under, I think they put up points.  And 47 is low for today’s NFL.  Doesn’t take a Gootee to figure out where this is going:

Giants over 47.  And you also may want to invest in the Giants team total and go over that.  That Eagles D is DECIMATED. Also took Barkley OVER 53.5 receiving yds and Giants team total OVER 21.5

Like a woman who goes home with a dude after grinding on him for 2 hours in Vegas, I don’t normally do this.  I haven’t taken a teaser in EASILY 7 years but good ol’ Steve Fezzik makes a great point.  No better way to take 2 teams that are laying 7 or 7.5 points with a 6 point swing and get them down to less than a FG. I took Dallas down to -1 and they covered with ease.  Second half of the teaser, Indy -1.5  Who’s hotter than Andrew Luck right now?  Emily Ratajkowski.  Goddamn, she could wear a Queen Victoria dress as well as a newspaper boy hat while sporting a Mike Tyson face tattoo.  I’d still be harder than a shark’s tooth.  Miami is 1-9 ATS on the road, 2-5 of late.  Fins are 2-4 playing Indy but oddly enough, they’re 7-1 in the land of Applebees VIPs.  But the Dolphins are getting Tannehill back and who can figure out if that’s a good thing or a bad thing?  The Dolphins have Davante Parker and Danny Amendola listed as questionable, making Kenny Stills the only healthy receiver.  Colts are 4-1 SU of late and 4-2 SU at home.  I’m only laying 1.5 with the teaser so that’s as SU as you can get.  

Teased Dallas to -1 and Indy to -1.5

Another team that completely singed my scrotum last week was the Minnesota Vikings.  God, this team has been all over the place this year and you may be wondering when is the safe time to bet them.  My answer?  Definitely not in the playoffs but I think this Sunday is a good time.  Here’s why.  They just got smoked by a division rival who’s on the way up and in comes another division rival who is on the way down.  Green Bay is 10.5 points WORSE on the road than home, which makes them #32 in the NFL, THE WORST IN THE LEAGUE.  Let’s also mention that Aaron Rodgers is below .500 on the road.  Lastly, it’s blatantly obvious that the Packers are quitting on McCarthy and he may not make it till the end of the year.  If they lose this week, he could be gone monday.  And I bet Seattle last week home against the Pack, laying 2.5 points.  The number closed at 3 and ended up pushing.  And that’s why it’s perfectly ok to take a number IMMEDIATELY if you like it instead of waiting till Sunday.  Vikings at home: 36-16-2 ATS under Mike Zimmer and and even bigger sample size, 47-23 ATS at home.   Bottom line, Vikings are 72% ATS at home, the second best team at home ATS is the Patriots at 56%.  One more oddball stat: Vikings are 36-15-1 on field turf.  I’m sure they have a stat about playing on a cross bluegrass, Kentucky bluegrass, featherbed bent, and northern California sinsemilla.  BANG!  Another Caddyshack reference makes the column.  

Jump on the Vikings -3 as it’s probably headed back to -3.5

And now for words that usually don’t make people money.  I like the Buffalo Bills this week.  I’ll hold for laughter.  Done?  One more?  Sure, go ahead, I need to pee anyway.  Ok, I’m back.  You’re good?  Cool.  Last time we saw the Bills, they completely set ablaze my 1st half under 17.5 bet at the Jets 2 weeks ago.  Now they’re home, after a bye, against a team who completely dominated the Steelers for 57:30 and then lost late.  They’ve lost 5 straight.  A warm weather team going up to play inside one of the coldest places, Lena Dunham’s vagina.  Jax 0-3-2 of late ATS, 3-5-1 on the road.  Blake Bortles (second best gay porno name) is just putrid on the road, 5 TDs and 6 INTs.  Jax averaging 17 PPG on the road.  So we know they can’t pass, what about Fournette being back?  Whoopedy-doo.  Buffalo is the 10th best rushing D in the NFL and the 3rd best in the last 3 weeks.  I love big defenses getting points at home.  Why is Jacksonsville giving a shit about this game?  No one else will…except me and the others who bet…

Buffalo +3

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NFL Week 8 picks ATS

If you missed this week’s, “Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber,” you can catch it right here.  Catch me next week on Twitch at 5pm under Be Terrific.  Fast forward to about 4:30 in for the start of the show.

4-4 last week, meh.  Lost TB and the over.  Lost Bal and SF over.  Fucking Beathard turned that ball over more times than someone on the fix.  Couldn’t score more than 10 points in garbage time? I hit Bal under as that Tucker miss solidified the under for me.  Hit my lock of the week with SD under and thankfully, Vrabel went for 2 after that late TD.  Either way, I was winning that one.  Late hits with the Chiefs and my NY Giants brought me to .500.  And of course that, “too little, too late comeback attempt but successful backdoor cover” for the Giants.  And don’t bother with a butt sex joke, we’ve done them all.  Especially all while sitting in a steam room at NY Sports Club.  30-21 on the season which puts me at 59% and better than most Vegas handicappers and MUCH better than the weathermen and weatherladies.  Quick would you rather: Land a weatherlady or land an anchorwoman on any of the Hispanic channels?  I vote Hispanic anchorwoman.  No reason, I think it’s just a slightly higher accomplishment, as long as you don’t land the one that is also cartel member’s girlfriend.

The Lock of the week: I know the Rams just made the Niners look flat out silly last week.  Aaron Rodgers is 4-0 when the Packers are getting more than 6. Off the bye, 9-2-1. Allison and Cobb will be back. Rams 6-11-2 last 19 at home ATS. Gonna be a ton of GB fans.  So barely a home field advantage for GB.

Take GB +9.5

Facts are facts: Drew Brees is a strong MVP candidate this year.  Some people are trying to downplay the revenge factor the where the Lattimore whiffed on a tackle, Stefon Diggs runs for the TD and an insurance company endorsement deal.  Saints 4-1 ATS and 5-0 SU out of their last 5.  The line went from Saints +1 to now Saints -1.5.  Time to wait this out till Sunday as the public has obviously pounded the Saints.  Minn 3-5-2 last 10 and 1-3-1 at home.  Also, the Saints have went over 52: 6/9, 7/8 vs Minnesota, 8/10 in Minnesota, Minn over 4/6.  

I’m taking the Saints -1.5 (Waiting till tomorrow to see what the line ends up) and over 53

The Steelers have been over 6/8, 4/5 at home, Cle under 4/6 and under 4/6 on the road. 8/12 vs Pitt.  Plus, Pitt D has let at least 21 points to QBs.  21 is also the number of sandwiches most women order at Primanthi’s, 21 also the number of times they’ve hooked up with their uncles, and 21 is also the number of IQ points those water heads have.  

Plunk down some buck on Pitt over 49 (I bought it down to 48.5)

After the Chiefs game sunday night, Cincinatti looked like Houston after her 500 man gangbang.  Now they’re home and not on prime time which is key for Andy Dalton.  He’s like A-Rod, showing up when there’s no pressure but shrinking when the spotlight is at its brightest.  No Gerald McCoy and Kwon Alexander on defense for TB and boy, does Jameis “One Star Uber Passenger rating” love turning that ball over.  That fruitcake screwed me out of that over last week with all of those turnovers last week vs Cleveland.  Cincy 6-3 ATS of late and 5-2 at home.  Bucs 2-11 SU on the road.  

Grabbing the Bengals -3.5

Seattle one of the best rushing the ball, Detroit one of the worst defending the rush.  Seahawks off a bye and getting 3 points?  Heiiidy HOOOOOO.  

Taking the Seahawks +3 and their obnoxious fans.

Colts flying west to facing the Oakland Raiders who are in flat out, “selling anything not nailed down” mode.  Apparently, Derek Carr isn’t crying, YOU’RE CRYING.  They traded away Cooper who wasn’t really doing anything all that special anyway and Lynch is on IR.  Now I ask you, where are the points coming from?  Jared Cook?  I’d rather have Jared from Subway.  Raiders also 2-13 ATS against teams that have a bye the following week.  

Take the Colts -3

Bonus picks

Bears have Mack listed as questionable. But where are the Jets getting their points from?  All of their WRs are out: Enuwa, Robbie Anderson, and Wayne Chrebet all out for the Jets.  They signed Richard Matthews and who cares?  He couldn’t stay on the Titans roster?  Jets 2-5-1 on the road. 0-4-1 in Chicago. Bears 11-4-1 at home.  I know the Bears haven’t laid more than a TD in well over 5 years but again, where are the Jets getting their points from?

Take the Bears -8 but going to wait till kickoff to see the number.

Speaking of teams that are else selling their body parts for science, the Giants are home and that will be the last game of the year I attend.  As much as I enjoy the randy talk and spirited menu fare of my buddy, I can’t stomach the thought to pay to see this team nor freeze my ass off any more this year.  Giants trade Eli Apple and his annoying mother to the Saints (no big deal) and Snacks Harrison (huge deal, #1 run stopper in the NFL) to Detroit.  Washington escapes with a win against Dallas and Jason Garrett’s ability to fuck up a glass of water.  Washington 4-2 ATS of late and I know the history favors the Giants but I’m going against a team almost ready to bench their QB.

Take the Skins -1

The Niners just got smoked.  I don’t feel like going to a full handicap except that from one of my favorite gambling podcasts, RJ “Mushmouth” Bell’s Vegas dream preview, all of the guys love the Niners because the Cardinals stink and the last time they faced each other, the Niners lost but were +5 in turnovers.  They rebound against an awful Josh Rosen with turf toe.  4 likes from those sharps are enough for me to like it too.

Niners -1.5

 

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Week 16 NFL picks ATS

Hope you’re ready to enjoy Christmas and hope you paid for those gifts with FREEEE MONEY!  When you’re hot, you’re hot.  4-3 last week as I took TB under this past monday night to push me over .500 for the week.  Guys, I haven’t had a losing week in 7 weeks.  Just saying.  We’re getting to the fantasy championship/players getting rested/ time of year so the number of plays will get smaller and by next week, it’s going to be only a slight few.  But I have a few in mind so here we go:

The wife beater currently known as Ezekiel Elliot is back for the Cowgirls and Dallas is holding onto a microcosm of hope to make the playoffs.  In comes the rape victim from week 15 known as the Seattle Seahawks.  And who had the Rams as the pick of the week last week?  YOU’RE WELCOME.  Jesus, I put out more than your moms.  2 weeks, 2 mom jokes.  How much confidence do you have in Seattle?  The correct answer is very little.  Usually, the Seahawks destroy in the month of December but it looks like the Legion of Boom went bust.  That defense has been beaten up more than Jim J Bullock’s asshole.  Wow, what a deep cut.  Pulling out an F list celebrity from the 80’s in this column, check.  Dallas is 7-2 ATS vs Sea and 5-2 ATS vs Seattle.  More stats? Sure.  Seattle is 2-5-1 of late and 3-7-1 on the road.  Not very awe inspiring.  And now, a Montell Jordan reference for you. “The party’s hype and the number’s right. Drinking 40’s here on the west side.”

Take Dallas -5 cause this is how we do it.

The Buffalo Bills are smack in the middle of the playoffs, despite the Nathan Peterman experiment.  Doesn’t that sound like the name of a shitty emo band?  I know, ALL EMO IS SHITTY, KEVIN.  The Bills go into Foxboro where the Pats really haven’t felt like the PATS this year.  They got insanely lucky (including me having under 54 last week) with that win.  The Bills NEED this game and the Pats haven’t blown anyone out in awhile (3 weeks). The Bills A) got beat by 20 and will most definitely B) use this as a revenge game for the Gronkowski cheap shot.  11.5 is just too many damn points so take the team who needs the game pretty bad.  And oh yeah, more fun facts.  The Bills hit the under 5/7 on the road, 4/6 under in NE.  And the Pats of late are also not putting up points as the under has hit 4/5.  Hogan is doubtful and Burkhead is out.  And oh yeah, Bellichik is 47% ATS when laying double digits.

So let’s double down and take the Bills +11.5 and the under 47.

Pittsburgh lost a potential dream crusher last week.  Pittsburgh sucks mastodon scrotum on the road.  Pittsburgh of late is 1-5 ATS.  I know, Houston isn’t much better, 2-5 ATS of late.  But 9 is too many and Pittsburgh plays to the level of their opponent.  And oh yeah, the best WR in football is out for the game.  If you don’t know who that is or disagree with me, you shouldn’t be reading this column.

Take the Texans +9 and cross your fingers.

The Saints fucked me not once but twice.  Not nice for a team named after a celestial figure.  The Saints couldn’t cover and bury Bryce Petty?  And then Mark Ingram, in clock killing mode, breaks off a long touchdown to burn me on the under.  Shame on me for laying 16.5.  The Saints lost to the Falcons 3 weeks ago (another one that I called.  Time for me to get my own show, goddamnit!) and I think they have revenge on their mind.  The Saints also want to get that division sewn up because they know KG has them 6/1 to win the NFC so let’s not monkey around.  Saints have 9 wins by 10 points or more.  Atlanta in a short week BARELY beat the Bucs on (had the under so yep, taking a bow again.)  Falcons D has given up 7 TDs in the last 3 weeks and only one pick.  Matt Ryan also not doing that much this year.  

The Saints come marching in all over the Falcons, -5. 

Tampa Bay almost tied it up with a 56 yd FG attempt on monday night.  Thank god that kick fell like an Italian man, a foot or 2 short.  Cause my under would have been cooked.  Here’s a fun fact: Tampa is 13-4 as an over when they’re a double digit underdog.  TB has a TON of injuries on defense and even if they were healthy, they weren’t that got.  But TB has hit 7/8 unders on the road.  Carolina has hit the over 5/5.  Panthers also 5/6 over at home.  I like Carolina to win and if it can get to under 10, I’ll jump on it.  But for now, it’s just going to be…

Carolina over 46.5

Not a full lock but I’m highly convinced about this game.  One garbage fan base flies across country to visit the biggest garbage fan base.  Raiders in Philly and Philly looking for that 1 seed.  Foles crushed it in his season debut and he better crush it against the Black and Silver because I have him in my fantasy championship.  BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE!  I don’t see the Raiders giving 2 shits about this game after they lost the way they did.  They’re flying cross country and playing Christmas night?  The Eagles may roll early and then sit Foles.  But I don’t see the Raiders showing up so let’s end this Christmas night with.

Philly under 47

 

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Week NAWWWNE NFL picks

Well kids, last week is what I call the law of averages just pulling your pants down and showing you who is still boss.  3-7 last week, udda disasta, ok?  Mark Ingram fumbling twice deep in Bears territory prevented me from covering.  Travis Benjamin on the Chargers catches a kickoff at the 15 or so and then this dickhead runs backwards and to the left.  Want to guess what happens next?  A goddamn safety, lost by .5 a point.  The Browns scored more than I thought they would so that under was busted but at least the Vikings covered.  Seattle won a last minute TD but didn’t cover.  I grabbed the Jets under because it was a monsoon and Atlanta on the road is awful.  You guessed it, scoring bonanza in the middle of what seemed like a hurricane.  It doesn’t help when ATL fumbles deep in their own zone twice as the Jets did once.  

Detroit had 1st and goal 3 different times and only came away with 3 points.  They kick another FG and I cover.  I did take Dallas who easily handled the Redskins and Cincy hit the over with the Colts.  As my old man, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.  I didn’t pull the trigger on KC nor the over as I got gun shy and both would’ve won.  See what a bad weekend does to you?  And with the beating I took last week, it felt like I held a grenade for too long between my buttcheeks.  

If you took the Jets for the season under 3.5, I feel extremely bad for you because that money line was ridiculously high.  But I don’t feel bad for me as I bet the Jets +3 the other night and for once, the secondary football team of NY doesn’t disappoint me.  Starting off the week 1-0 so let’s get to the picks:

I’m all in on Drew Brees and his Pangea sized facial birthmark this week.  Coach Sean Payton chewed out Ingram on the sidelines for doing his impression of “early years Tiki Barber” and you can bet your ass it’s not happening again this week.  The Bucs defense is trash, giving up 5.8 yards per play.  And I don’t think Winston’s shoulder is up to snuff yet.  The Saints are 8th in passing yds and 8th in passing yards on defense.  The only way the Bucs have the shot is running the ball against a bad Saints run defense.  No Brent Grimes for the Bucs this week and what do the Saints do well?  Air it out.  Quick stats for you: Saints are 4-1 ATS, 4-2 home against TB.  TB 0-4-1 as well as 1-3-1 on the road.  I see Brees and the boys winning by at least a touchdown.

I’m demanding that the Saints get my lost money buck and cover -7

I got stabbed by the Ravens like I was in an SUV with Ray Lewis when I took the Dolphins last Thursday.  Matt Moore is like that girl who stands far away in a dark corner in the bar and after a few cocktails, you swear she looks like Heather Graham.  But when you commit on the approach and get closer, you see it’s really Billy Graham.  Yep, a Billy Graham reference in the picks column.  And I’m not even going to google and let you know if he’s alive or not.  Baltimore goes into Tennessee with the 30th ranked run defense against the 8th ranked run attack.  Flacco (has he regressed big time or what? He looks like someone playing Madden for the first time) is coming off a concussion and will play.  Flacco has a 6:8 TD ratio, yuck.  He’s my hands down winner for best on the field impression of Colin Kaepernick.   Titans are off the bye which gave Mariota and Murray’s hamstrings time to heal.  Titans are 6-1 ATS at home, 5-2 ATS home against Bal.  Bal is 2-4 ATS and 3-8 ATS on the road.  

Take the Titans -3.5

My daughter has recently had awful diarrhea.  I’m talking mustard yellow with a smell that even makes the Bronx smell like a tropical rainforest.  Why am I sharing this with you?  Because I want you to appreciate how I had to live through her taking off her poopy diaper in her bed.  And it got all over the place.  All. Over. The. Place.  And that’s what this week feels like watching some of these games; diarrhea all over the place.  Mia/Oak, AZ/SF, Indy/Hou.  So what’s one to do when you have a bunch of these games?  Take the one game that despite its stench, know exactly where it’s going.  And that’s Oakland and Miami.  Both teams are an offensive mess.  Oakland was supposed to be the king of the AFC west and quite frankly, discounting the KC game, they look like the Jackson Pollack painting my daughter left behind.  And we all saw Miami play like the mob kidnapped their family.  Oakland has gone under their last 6/8 and 6/9 when playing in Miami.  Mia has gone under in their last 6/8 as well.  This one has 21-17 written all over it.

Take the under 44

Denver has made a QB change…to Brock Osweiller.  HAHAHAHAHA (Wiping tears from my eyes)  Yeah, that will fix things.  I know Denver has a solid D and Philly is prime for a letdown game.  If this game was in Denver, I’d be a bit leery.  Denver 1-4 ATS and 0-5 on the road.  Philly 5-0 ATS and 5-1 ATS at home.  But to quote Ferris Bueller: “A) You can never go too far.  B) If I’m gonna get busted, it’s not going to be by a guy like THAT.”  Bet on Brock Osweiller, that’s rich.  My abs STILL hurt from laughing that hard.  

Take the Eagles -7.5

Green Bay is off the bye and the Lions come into town for Hundley part 2.  You’re going to think I’m going to make a case for Detroit on the rebound?  Nope, I’m done trusting Detroit for awhile.  GB on the bye IMMEASURABLY helps Hundley as they probably simplified the playbook for him and they game planned for him for the last 2 weeks.  And GB is getting points?  At home?  Detroit is 1-4 ATS and 2-4 ATS on the road.  Det 1-4 playing GB and 1-5 ATS in GB.  GB a resounding 24-1 SU at home vs Detroit.  And I’m getting points?  

Yeah, GB +2.5

And now it’s time for the lock of the week.  Usually, when I give picks I have stats supporting my argument.  But this week, I’m going against the history.  The Rams have lost 7 straight against the Giants, 0-5 ATS.  Rams are 2-4 on the road this year but this is more of an anti-Giants pick.  In fact, it’s a dead nuts against pick on the Giants.  No Jackrabbit Jenkins as he’s suspended indefinitely.  Sources say McAdoo has lost the locker room.  Maybe he should’ve made a map where it is.  Ba-dum, ching! (Puts gun to head and pulls the trigger) Both teams are off the bye which means fresh legs but not anyone noteworthy on the Giants offense except for Ingram and Sheppard.  And whoops, Rams are the 2nd best defense against the TE so Ingram will get taken care of.  Rams are the 2nd highest scoring team in the NFL and I see a heavy dose of Todd Gurley.  I’d rather sit on a casting couch with Kevin Spacey than put money on my NY Giants this season.  

Rams in an easy one, -4.5

 

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Fantasy football talk/draft #1 recap

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As I’ve said before, this summer for films BLOW.  I’ll wait for Sausage Party, Suicide Squad, and Jason Bourne to hit video or stream online.  Same for Hands of Stone or Don’t Breathe.  I’m so glad Ben Hur failed miserably as Hollywood MUST be getting the memo that we’re SICK of rebooting good films.  So let’s talk Fantasy Football which we’re right in the midst of draft time.

I do 3 drafts a year and all my friends know, I draft best available player.  I’m also a fan of value, nothing better than getting a solid player later than a round or 2 later than he was expected to go.  So I’ll share with you my teams and we can cheer/mock my picks:

League 1.  Team Name: Hope Solo’s Goop Chute.  If you don’t get that reference, google Hope Solo naked selfies.  And make sure you aren’t eating at that time.

I had the 3rd pick overall and went with my boy OBJ.  He’s gonna crush it as the Giants have the best schedule against poorly ranked CBs.

2nd rd: Mark Ingram.  He’s the Saints guy now and Drew Brees can’t throw 80 times a game.

3rd rd: Amari Cooper.  Oak as the 2nd best schedule against poorly ranked CBs.

4th rd: Denarius Thomas. Don’t care they don’t have a QB, whomever is at the helm will do their damnedest to get him the ball.  And he’s my THIRD WR.  Wow…

5th rd: Dion Lewis.  Drafted him 6 hours before the news came down he’s going to be out 10 weeks…oops

6th rd: Donte Moncrief.  TY Hilton is not Reggie Wayne nor Marvin Harrison.  Nice 4th WR/Flex

7th rd: Frank Gore. Yes, a bit of a gamble as he’s 34.  But he’s VERY durable and he’s my number 2 back.  If he gets me 7 TDs on the season, mission accomplished.

8th rd: Tom Brady.  Goddamnit, I hate the Patriots.  But he’s going to be in full, “Fuck you” Or “Bobby Bowden mid-late 90’s Florida State running up the score” Mode.  I’m getting great value for him here.  I’m missing 4 games (5 with the bye) with Brady so all I have to do is get to week 4 at least 2-2 and I’ll be good to go.

9th rd: Danny Woodhead.  Did you you see Melvin Gordon last year?  I did because I had that shitsipper.  Here’s me snaking the guy who took Melvin Gordon

10th rd: Willie Snead.  If you missed it, Drew Brees throws…a lot.  I know he spreads it around but he’s my 5th WR and he can easily get 6 TDs this year.  The problem will be he’ll get 3 of them in 1 week while he’s on my bench.

11th rd: Travis Benjamin: Phillip Rivers doesn’t win Superbowls but he sure throws it a lot. It’s nice to have a #2 WR on a team that airs it out…

12th rd: Sammie Coates: Crushing it in training camp and will boot Markus Wheaton out of the #2 WR role.

13th Rd: Bilal Powell.  Matt Forte is old and banged up.  Not saying Powell is the answer but he sure is a nice bye week fill-in.

14th rd: Devontae Booker.  Love this pick as CJ Anderson BLOWS.  Ronnie Hillman took away a ton of his carries and Booker has almost usurped Hillman on the depth chart.

15th rd: RG3. Go ahead and laugh.  But I’m not and here’s why.  Like I said, I need him for the first 4 weeks and a bye week.  Here’s Griffin’s first 4 games: @Philly (garbage defense),  Home Baltimore (not a great D), @Miami (garbage defense), and @washington (Garbage defense and let’s not forget the “revenge against the team who cut them” factor.

16th rd: Dwayne Allen.  The rule of thumb when drafting a TE is if you don’t get a top tiered one like Gronk, Olsen, Reed, or Kelce…you wait.  And wait I did.  No Coby Fleener so no more sharing catches.

17th rd: Lions D.  My last 2 picks will ALWAYS be kicker and defense…except last night where I clicked the wrong guy and drafted a kicker in the 3rd to last rd.

18th rd: Mike Nugent.

And there you have it so comment away on my draft.  I think my only notable weakness it my number 2 RB but then again, not many people have 2 solid RBs.  I do have 3 NASTY WRs and a solid bench.  You can make the case that until I get Brady back, QB is weak too.  I’ll buy that…I’LL BUY THAT.  But I think RG3 answers all the naysayers and is at LEAST competitive.  If not, start looking for a string of RG3 car washes in the Cleveland/DC Metro/Baylor areas….

 

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