This photo has nothing to do with gambling or the NFL, I’m just excited for a Public Enemy/Wu-Tang tour.
law of av·er·ag·es
- the principle that supposes most future events are likely to balance any past deviation from a presumed average.
Here’s what happened last week: The law of averages saw Kevin the Kraut doing 155
mph in a sleek, red Ferrari on the turnpike with his winning ways. LOA turns on the
sirens and pulls over KTK, telling him he needs to slow down. “Slow down?? I will do no
such thing!” Except I didn’t say that to LOA, I just thought it. “Yes sir, I’ll slow down.
Thanks for the warning, officer.” And what happens? You pull away slowly, staying
within the speed limit until the officer pulls out and speeds away. And what do we all
do then? Fucking floor it. And that’s what we’re going to do, floor it. 2 more weeks to
print money, let’s get it.
2-2 last week. Dallas over and KC under both came home. Unfortunately, both horseface
Andrew Luck lallygagged the shit out of the game. Did you see him on 4th and goal with
:06 left? Didn’t get the line set and the game was over. He took his sweet ass time with a
chance to push the cover but even before that, had his worst game of the year. He gets a
pass for being rock solid all year long. Saints didn’t cover either but at least they took out
the garbage from Philly. 71/117 on the year, 61% for the year. Still rocking and rollin’,
Lock of the week: one more teaser for the year. I’ve told you all year long, the Saints are
winning the Superbowl. They’re insanely great at home, 30 ppg at home except last
week. Yes, Drew Brees looked off last week. But you know what wasn’t off? That
defense. The Saints can run and stop the run. Saints are 10-5 of late but 1-5 in the last 6.
Saints at home against the Rams are both 4-2 ATS and SU. The problem for the Rams is
Goff. He has 11 TDs and 10 INTs on the road. The Rams O-line and run game beat Dallas,
Goff didn’t. Gurley is obviously banged up, CJ Anderson had more carries last week.
They’re not going to run against the Saints like they did Dallas. Goff last 3 vs playoff
teams ZERO TDs and 5 INTs. Obviously, McVay doesn’t trust Goff either as Goff passed 28
times and the ball was run 48 times. Wow. You know the Saints in the last 8 games have
the 6th ranked DVOA on defense and 7th for offense? Lastly, in the last 8 games, the
Saints are giving up 14 ppg. Big improvement since when they had morbidly obese Rob
Ryan and his mullet in charge of defense. I said it before and I’ll say it again, Drew Brees
has one more Superbowl run left in him. And we’re going to ensure it happens by…
Teasing the Saints to +3
The Patriots are on the road for the first time in a long time. I’m sure you’ve seen the
meme that Mark Sanchez has more road wins than Brady. Much like Goff last week,
Brady didn’t win that game…his rushing attack did. Yes, he dumped off to James White a
ton but he wasn’t throwing it downfield. The rushing attack gashed the Chargers and
didn’t have to force Brady to make a bunch of key throws. The Pats are 2-5 ATS vs KC but
4-2 ATS in KC. However, here’s the KEY number: Pats are 1-5 SU in KC. The KC defense
got me believing in them after they made the Colts look like mares last week. The only
thing that scares me is that despite last week, the Chiefs are dead last against the run.
Now let’s get back on the good side of the Chiefs argument. Although the Chiefs D is
suspect, they average 17 ppg at home, 34 away. Eric Berry is questionable and may come
back on defense. If the Chiefs can bottle up the Pats like they did with the Colts, they can
get the monkey off of Andy Reid’s back. And we all know during conference
championship weekend that home teams are undefeated the last 10 games. No teams
has won a Superbowl having played a road game in the playoffs. More bad news for the
Patriots, Tom Brady’s yards per attempt are sincerely in the dumps. When Josh Gordon
was on the team and probably smoking tons of weed, Brady had 7.6 yards per attempt.
Without Gordon, Brady has a 5.6 YPA. That puts him DEAD LAST in the NFL without
Gordon. If the Pats can’t run the ball successfully, they’re in trouble. Last stat: the
Patriots have failed to meet expectations while on the road by a combined 74 points
which is 9 PPG. Remember, they were 3-5 ATS on the road this year. And the wins they
had were a bit lucky: the Bears game, the pick 6 against Buffalo, and the Jets game where
the Jets were driving and got to the Pats 6 yd line. I know betting against the Pats is
usually not a profitable adventure. But these aren’t the Pats we know and old man Brady
is ready to start going to the movies at 2pm, be in bed by 7:30, and be a lot more
comfortable using racial slurs.
Second half of teaser Chiefs +3
Pats under 4/5 on the road, Chiefs are under 11/14. It’s not going to be as cold as
everyone thought it was going to be, it will be a balmy 24 degrees. I think that there will
be points but too many as the Pats will be mostly running that ball or relying on the
dump off passes to White. Of course, the Chiefs are able to score a TD in 3 minutes or
less. So let’s cross our fingers and hope the score goes…