NFL Week 8 picks ATS

If you missed this week’s, “Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber,” you can catch it right here.  Catch me next week on Twitch at 5pm under Be Terrific.  Fast forward to about 4:30 in for the start of the show.

4-4 last week, meh.  Lost TB and the over.  Lost Bal and SF over.  Fucking Beathard turned that ball over more times than someone on the fix.  Couldn’t score more than 10 points in garbage time? I hit Bal under as that Tucker miss solidified the under for me.  Hit my lock of the week with SD under and thankfully, Vrabel went for 2 after that late TD.  Either way, I was winning that one.  Late hits with the Chiefs and my NY Giants brought me to .500.  And of course that, “too little, too late comeback attempt but successful backdoor cover” for the Giants.  And don’t bother with a butt sex joke, we’ve done them all.  Especially all while sitting in a steam room at NY Sports Club.  30-21 on the season which puts me at 59% and better than most Vegas handicappers and MUCH better than the weathermen and weatherladies.  Quick would you rather: Land a weatherlady or land an anchorwoman on any of the Hispanic channels?  I vote Hispanic anchorwoman.  No reason, I think it’s just a slightly higher accomplishment, as long as you don’t land the one that is also cartel member’s girlfriend.

The Lock of the week: I know the Rams just made the Niners look flat out silly last week.  Aaron Rodgers is 4-0 when the Packers are getting more than 6. Off the bye, 9-2-1. Allison and Cobb will be back. Rams 6-11-2 last 19 at home ATS. Gonna be a ton of GB fans.  So barely a home field advantage for GB.

Take GB +9.5

Facts are facts: Drew Brees is a strong MVP candidate this year.  Some people are trying to downplay the revenge factor the where the Lattimore whiffed on a tackle, Stefon Diggs runs for the TD and an insurance company endorsement deal.  Saints 4-1 ATS and 5-0 SU out of their last 5.  The line went from Saints +1 to now Saints -1.5.  Time to wait this out till Sunday as the public has obviously pounded the Saints.  Minn 3-5-2 last 10 and 1-3-1 at home.  Also, the Saints have went over 52: 6/9, 7/8 vs Minnesota, 8/10 in Minnesota, Minn over 4/6.  

I’m taking the Saints -1.5 (Waiting till tomorrow to see what the line ends up) and over 53

The Steelers have been over 6/8, 4/5 at home, Cle under 4/6 and under 4/6 on the road. 8/12 vs Pitt.  Plus, Pitt D has let at least 21 points to QBs.  21 is also the number of sandwiches most women order at Primanthi’s, 21 also the number of times they’ve hooked up with their uncles, and 21 is also the number of IQ points those water heads have.  

Plunk down some buck on Pitt over 49 (I bought it down to 48.5)

After the Chiefs game sunday night, Cincinatti looked like Houston after her 500 man gangbang.  Now they’re home and not on prime time which is key for Andy Dalton.  He’s like A-Rod, showing up when there’s no pressure but shrinking when the spotlight is at its brightest.  No Gerald McCoy and Kwon Alexander on defense for TB and boy, does Jameis “One Star Uber Passenger rating” love turning that ball over.  That fruitcake screwed me out of that over last week with all of those turnovers last week vs Cleveland.  Cincy 6-3 ATS of late and 5-2 at home.  Bucs 2-11 SU on the road.  

Grabbing the Bengals -3.5

Seattle one of the best rushing the ball, Detroit one of the worst defending the rush.  Seahawks off a bye and getting 3 points?  Heiiidy HOOOOOO.  

Taking the Seahawks +3 and their obnoxious fans.

Colts flying west to facing the Oakland Raiders who are in flat out, “selling anything not nailed down” mode.  Apparently, Derek Carr isn’t crying, YOU’RE CRYING.  They traded away Cooper who wasn’t really doing anything all that special anyway and Lynch is on IR.  Now I ask you, where are the points coming from?  Jared Cook?  I’d rather have Jared from Subway.  Raiders also 2-13 ATS against teams that have a bye the following week.  

Take the Colts -3

Bonus picks

Bears have Mack listed as questionable. But where are the Jets getting their points from?  All of their WRs are out: Enuwa, Robbie Anderson, and Wayne Chrebet all out for the Jets.  They signed Richard Matthews and who cares?  He couldn’t stay on the Titans roster?  Jets 2-5-1 on the road. 0-4-1 in Chicago. Bears 11-4-1 at home.  I know the Bears haven’t laid more than a TD in well over 5 years but again, where are the Jets getting their points from?

Take the Bears -8 but going to wait till kickoff to see the number.

Speaking of teams that are else selling their body parts for science, the Giants are home and that will be the last game of the year I attend.  As much as I enjoy the randy talk and spirited menu fare of my buddy, I can’t stomach the thought to pay to see this team nor freeze my ass off any more this year.  Giants trade Eli Apple and his annoying mother to the Saints (no big deal) and Snacks Harrison (huge deal, #1 run stopper in the NFL) to Detroit.  Washington escapes with a win against Dallas and Jason Garrett’s ability to fuck up a glass of water.  Washington 4-2 ATS of late and I know the history favors the Giants but I’m going against a team almost ready to bench their QB.

Take the Skins -1

The Niners just got smoked.  I don’t feel like going to a full handicap except that from one of my favorite gambling podcasts, RJ “Mushmouth” Bell’s Vegas dream preview, all of the guys love the Niners because the Cardinals stink and the last time they faced each other, the Niners lost but were +5 in turnovers.  They rebound against an awful Josh Rosen with turf toe.  4 likes from those sharps are enough for me to like it too.

Niners -1.5

 

Advertisements

Week 12 NFL picks against the spread

4-3 last week as GB smoked that over to put me above .500 for the week.  Let’s give a shoutout to that Jacksonville coach, fuckwad Doug Marrone, as he decided erase all good karma by throwing the the ball deep in Jax territory with little time left on the clock in the 4th quarter in a tied game.  Common sense would have had him run out the clock so they can get to OT.  Jacksonville had a nice comeback, tying it up from down 13 and then watched my money disappear like Rob Schneider’s career as Phil Dawson kicked a 57 yd fg to seal it for the Cardinals.  Indy lost by .5 as they gave up a late TD and blew a decent lead.  However, the Pats cruised to the over as the aforementioned GB/Pitt over.  The Niners hung tight for awhile but Russell Wilson poured it on late.  The Bengals did smoke the Browns like I foresaw as well.  Do I go back to the well with the Jags?  Read on and find out.  BTW, I took the Skins on Thursday night and Kirk Cousins went Kirk Cameron on me.  Praying for something good to happen and it never did.  Now THAT’S how you write a joke.  So I’m 0-1 to start the week.  Also, I put down money on the Saints to win the NFC championship at 6-1 odds.  Wish me luck.

Short answer, yep.  And as sad as this is going to sound, I have Blake Bortles going for me to determine if I get a first round bye in fantasy football.  You’re probably asking yourself if I’m throwing the game so I don’t get the bye by starting Bortles and I would too if the shoe was on the other foot.  Problem is, I drafted Eli Manning very late and then dropped him for Alex Smith who played out of his mind for nearly 2 months.  Then Alex Smith started looking like Alex Trebek for too long.  My buddy snaked Case Keenum off the wire so I was left with Bortles or Gabbert.  So cross your fingers that Bortles eviscerates the Indy defense which resembles Jenna Jameson’s butthole.  Let’s cross your toes and tongue that Marquis Lee and Leonard Fournette also have good days for your favorite sports handicapper.  The Jags are 5-0 ATS vs Indy and that should be all you need to know.  Ok, another nugget.  Indy is 2-4 ATS on the road.  The Jags losing in such an ugly fashion should be the perfect time to take them in the bounce back to put them smack in the middle of the division race.  

Take the Jags -9.5

What can you say about the Patriots that hasn’t been said, especially the cheating and shitty fans elements?  But give the White Devil his due, Bellichek is a covering machine and this week, those rapscallions are in Buffalo which is almost another home game for them.  Pats are recently 5-0 ATS, 7-1 on the road, and 4-1 in Buff.  Buffalo recently 2-4-1, 2-4-1 vs the Pats, and 2-10-1 home vs NE.  In the last month, Buffalo has put up over 20 2x but both when they were getting blown out in garbage time.  Buffalo has no WR and the Pats D has improved of late.  I don’t see much going for the Bills except a lot of, “wait till next decade” talk.

Take the Pats -9

Minnesota has been on one hell of a cinderella ride this year, despite losing their rookie RB, Dalvin Cook, and riding the coattails of a QB named Case.  Seriously, who names their kid, Case?  I hope his parents finished the joke and named his brother, Closed.  Wacka, wacka, wacka.  The Vikes had 10 days off after dismantling the Lions to prep for the Falcons who have had a mild resurgence.  I think that the Vikings being 15-8 on the road and Atlanta 1-3-1 vs Minny should be good enough reasons to take the Purple team this week.  I also like the over and the numbers back it up: Minn is 4/5 hitting the overs and hit 5/7 of them on the road.  Falcons have put up 30+ 3 times this year but don’t expect them to replicate that against a solid Vikes D.  

Take the Vikings +3 and the over 47

The Lions were smoked last week and now they head to Baltimore, who couldn’t cover against the hapless Texans.  Matt Stafford looked like he ate John Madden before the game on Thanksgiving so I think they play better.  Baltimore doesn’t inspire confidence at home, as they’re 2-4 ATS.  And Detroit of late is 2-4-1 ATS.  But I tell you what jumps out at me, the over.  Detroit has been hot with the over of late, 6/7 and 4/6 vs Bal.  The Ravens have recently hit the over 5/7.  So let’s see if backwards hat Matt Stafford can put up enough to hit and Joe Flacco puts up his usual pick 6 so we can hit…

The over 43.5

The lock of the week was easier than all of your mothers this week.  Yep, 41 years old and not afraid to drop a, “your mother” joke in there.  This isn’t the NY Times, folks.  The Saints lost a tough one in LA last week and now they’re back to home, sweet home.  When the Saints are home and have a winning record, they’re 17-3-1 out of their last 21.  Holy.  Christ.  Saints are 4-0-1 vs Carolina while the Panthers are 2-4 in NO.  Saints are recently 6-3 ATS and now after a loss?  Yeah, they’re fired up and playing Carolina who A) got lucky that the Jets went FULL Jets and gave up a late lead AGAIN.  Oh yeah, Carolina backdoored the cover with a late FG.  Olsen is banged up again and Cam didn’t play well against the Jets.  I just see the #Pangeabirthmarkface demolishing the Panthers at home and really no other way around it.  I kind of like the over but I don’t know if Carolina will put up their end to cover.  Although the last 2 times these teams played in NO, they combined for 79 points BOTH times.  

Love the Saints -5 and maybe the over 48.  

I kind of like:

The Jets to bounce back +3.  KC had a tough time in Giants Stadium last week and the Jets play well as home dogs.

LAC -13 getting revenge for the Browns beating them last year.

Rams -7 in AZ.  Do you think Blaine Gabbert keeps this up, even though they’re home again?  I doubt it.

Niners +3 who are 4-2 on the road while the Bears are 0-4 ATS at home as favorites.

Detroit +3 who has had 10 days to prep against a team who has played nothing but backup QBs in their last stretch.  Bal 2-4 ATS at home as well.

TB over 45.  Jameis Winston is back so I’m laying off this.  The line opened GB +2 but the pros jumped on that immediately and now is GB -2.5

 

 

NFL Week 10 picks

Well, when you’re right, you’re right.  Too bad I was right 50% of the time last week, 4-3 for week 9.  The .5 with the Titans fucked me and thanks to a late Baltimore TD and also a late Miami TD to blow the under.  I was flat out wrong with GB as Hundley looked as clueless as most male comics trying to talk to women at a dance club.  The Rams were the lock of the week and the only regret I have is not putting $1000 on that game instead of just 500.  You should’ve seen me at that Giants/Rams game; it was raining and just miserable.  I told my buddy, Mitch from Mendham, that when the Rams had 3rd and 33 that they were probably going to convert the first down.  Wouldn’t you know the Rams scored!  I giggled like a maniacal Mad Hatter, the Giants were straight up trash as I knew they wouldn’t answer the bell.  The Jets, Saints, and Eagles were easy ones last week so let’s hope the rest of my picks are just as easy.  

I took the Cardinals +6 on Thursday night and what a punt to the ovaries that was when AZ backdoor covered but had their PAT block.  That went from a surefire win to a push so we start the week, 0-0-1

Let’s go up to Buffalo, where there’s not much to do except complain how cold it is, have a horrible accent, and watch the Bills underperform.  Except this year, the Bills have been playing with some fire in their ass.  It’s amazing how they’re 5-3 this season (4-0 at home?!) with so few offensive offensive weapons.  The Bills were just destroyed by the Jets 2 Thursdays ago.  In come the red-hot Saints but just like Kevin Spacey, the rug is about to get yanked out from under the Pangea birthmark face of Drew Brees.  It’s supposed to be ~40 degrees tomorrow in Buffalo and Brees has had a hard time in cold weather.  But let’s look at something else important; the Bills have had 10 days to prep after that anal probing by the Jets.  Tyrod is good at home; the Bills are 4-1-1ATS at home and I think the Bills can cover 3 or even win outright.  6 in a row is a nice run for the Saints but that probably ends on Sunday at 3:30pm.  The number is right if you can get it.

Take the Bills +3

I got burned by dumbass Travis Benjamin 2 weeks ago on a kickoff where he caught it at the 16 and ran down and across the field and guess what happened?  Safety, lost the game by .5.  If I’m the special teams coach for LAC, I would’ve made him watch Tyler Perry’s Boo 2 until he spontaneously combusted.  Chargers are off the bye and head into Jacksonville who have become red hot of late.  They dismantled an awful Bengals team and even got the level headed AJ Green to get into a fight.  Jacksonville has had a recent trend of having a bad game following a good game but that trend broke last week after 2 straight wins.  Recently, Jax is 8-3 ATS but 3-6 ATS at home.  In come the Chargers, who are used to playing in front of strangers, home and away.  Now, the Chargers are 2-3-1 ATS on the road BUT 12-3-1 ATS on the road vs the AFC south.  A lot of numbers being thrown around here but I think the most important is this one: 4.5.  That’s the spread and I think this is a defensive battle.  LA plays them tight and might even win.

Take the Chargers (I’ll time it right one of these days) +4.5

What did I tell you last week?  I love betting against Brock Osweiller and he didn’t disappoint me last week.  Now he goes back home to play the Patriots who are fresh off a bye.  Yes, the Pats have had troubles there, 2-6 ATS but 6-3 SU.  More importantly, the Pats defense has closed up like a woman’s vagina who gave birth 3 months ago.  Check out these numbers: 14, 7, 17, and 13.  No, those aren’t the number of times your mom came to my house for the past 4 weeks.  That’s the number of points the Pats have given up in their last 4.  And they’re coming off 2 weeks of Bellichek planning?  And now they’re playing against (stifling laughter) Brock Osweiller?  I haven’t been this giddy since the night before I went to Vegas.  As the late, great Ol’ Dirty Bastard said, N—-a please.  

Take the Pats -7.5

It must be my birthday (actually, it was this past Friday so thanks for all the well wishes) because the gambling gods are going to trot out my 2nd favorite QB to bet against.  Tampa Bay has more awful than listening than someone from Philly quoting ET:  “phoooone hoooome.”  And now they trot out Ryan Fitzpatrick, who served up pick 6s better than his Sith lord apprentice, Blake Bortles. The Jets who dismantled the Bills last Thursday have 10 days to prep against Ryan Fitzpatrick.  I’d rather be a female comedian and go into a hotel room with Louis CK than deal with Fitzpatrick.  Oh yeah, Mike Evans is suspended for his fracas on the field.  Did you see how pissed Evans was with Lattimore?  You would’ve thought that he said to Evans that Steve Harvey was a better host of Family Feud than Richard Dawson.  The Jets are 5-0 ATS vs TB and recently 6-0-1 ATS.  TB is recently 0-4-1 ATS and 1-4 ATS at home.  I just don’t see TB rising to the occasion; especially with Fitzpatrick in and Evans out.  No Forte for the Jets but they can still run the ball with Powell and McCown has been pretty solid of late.

I jumped on it too early at -2.5 but now the line is 1.5?  Get all over the Jets!

Who’s hotter than the Rams?  Not many teams besides the Eagles and the Saints.  Although, the Rams are 2-8-1 at home and Hou is 5-2 ATS and 4-2 ATS on the road.  Oh wait, that was when Hou had Watson at QB.  How did Tom Savage do last week?  Not. Well.  19/44 for 219 and most of it in garbage time.  I think Fred Savage would be a better QB, at least he kissed Winnie Cooper.  And oh yeah, that was against the Colts who have the WORST defense in the NFL.  Rams defense in the last month have given up the following number of points: 10, 17, 0, and 17.  And you think Savage on the road is going to make something happen?  Don’t give me that “Houston defense” argument.  34-17-38-14 (last one against the Colts) are the last month worth of points.  I hate taking big spreads but can you tell me otherwise?  I don’t think so, Tim.  Yep, just worked in a “Home Improvement” reference in a picks column.

Lastly, my only total for the week.  Washington under has hit their last 4/6.  Vikings off a bye are 1-6 ATS so I don’t see many points being scored.  A metric ton of Redskins are still on the injury report.  I think this one screams 17-14 so throw something on.

Vikings under 41

A lot of people are liking the Titans but I can’t make a good enough argument for them as 4.5 is a weird number for them to cover.  Cincy is due to play well ONE of these days.  I will probably take Mia +9 against an on again/off again Carolina team.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Colts cover +10 at home.  And lastly, I like (but will never bet) the Giants to win in SF.  Literally half of the Niners are on the injury list.

 

Week NAWWWNE NFL picks

Well kids, last week is what I call the law of averages just pulling your pants down and showing you who is still boss.  3-7 last week, udda disasta, ok?  Mark Ingram fumbling twice deep in Bears territory prevented me from covering.  Travis Benjamin on the Chargers catches a kickoff at the 15 or so and then this dickhead runs backwards and to the left.  Want to guess what happens next?  A goddamn safety, lost by .5 a point.  The Browns scored more than I thought they would so that under was busted but at least the Vikings covered.  Seattle won a last minute TD but didn’t cover.  I grabbed the Jets under because it was a monsoon and Atlanta on the road is awful.  You guessed it, scoring bonanza in the middle of what seemed like a hurricane.  It doesn’t help when ATL fumbles deep in their own zone twice as the Jets did once.  

Detroit had 1st and goal 3 different times and only came away with 3 points.  They kick another FG and I cover.  I did take Dallas who easily handled the Redskins and Cincy hit the over with the Colts.  As my old man, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.  I didn’t pull the trigger on KC nor the over as I got gun shy and both would’ve won.  See what a bad weekend does to you?  And with the beating I took last week, it felt like I held a grenade for too long between my buttcheeks.  

If you took the Jets for the season under 3.5, I feel extremely bad for you because that money line was ridiculously high.  But I don’t feel bad for me as I bet the Jets +3 the other night and for once, the secondary football team of NY doesn’t disappoint me.  Starting off the week 1-0 so let’s get to the picks:

I’m all in on Drew Brees and his Pangea sized facial birthmark this week.  Coach Sean Payton chewed out Ingram on the sidelines for doing his impression of “early years Tiki Barber” and you can bet your ass it’s not happening again this week.  The Bucs defense is trash, giving up 5.8 yards per play.  And I don’t think Winston’s shoulder is up to snuff yet.  The Saints are 8th in passing yds and 8th in passing yards on defense.  The only way the Bucs have the shot is running the ball against a bad Saints run defense.  No Brent Grimes for the Bucs this week and what do the Saints do well?  Air it out.  Quick stats for you: Saints are 4-1 ATS, 4-2 home against TB.  TB 0-4-1 as well as 1-3-1 on the road.  I see Brees and the boys winning by at least a touchdown.

I’m demanding that the Saints get my lost money buck and cover -7

I got stabbed by the Ravens like I was in an SUV with Ray Lewis when I took the Dolphins last Thursday.  Matt Moore is like that girl who stands far away in a dark corner in the bar and after a few cocktails, you swear she looks like Heather Graham.  But when you commit on the approach and get closer, you see it’s really Billy Graham.  Yep, a Billy Graham reference in the picks column.  And I’m not even going to google and let you know if he’s alive or not.  Baltimore goes into Tennessee with the 30th ranked run defense against the 8th ranked run attack.  Flacco (has he regressed big time or what? He looks like someone playing Madden for the first time) is coming off a concussion and will play.  Flacco has a 6:8 TD ratio, yuck.  He’s my hands down winner for best on the field impression of Colin Kaepernick.   Titans are off the bye which gave Mariota and Murray’s hamstrings time to heal.  Titans are 6-1 ATS at home, 5-2 ATS home against Bal.  Bal is 2-4 ATS and 3-8 ATS on the road.  

Take the Titans -3.5

My daughter has recently had awful diarrhea.  I’m talking mustard yellow with a smell that even makes the Bronx smell like a tropical rainforest.  Why am I sharing this with you?  Because I want you to appreciate how I had to live through her taking off her poopy diaper in her bed.  And it got all over the place.  All. Over. The. Place.  And that’s what this week feels like watching some of these games; diarrhea all over the place.  Mia/Oak, AZ/SF, Indy/Hou.  So what’s one to do when you have a bunch of these games?  Take the one game that despite its stench, know exactly where it’s going.  And that’s Oakland and Miami.  Both teams are an offensive mess.  Oakland was supposed to be the king of the AFC west and quite frankly, discounting the KC game, they look like the Jackson Pollack painting my daughter left behind.  And we all saw Miami play like the mob kidnapped their family.  Oakland has gone under their last 6/8 and 6/9 when playing in Miami.  Mia has gone under in their last 6/8 as well.  This one has 21-17 written all over it.

Take the under 44

Denver has made a QB change…to Brock Osweiller.  HAHAHAHAHA (Wiping tears from my eyes)  Yeah, that will fix things.  I know Denver has a solid D and Philly is prime for a letdown game.  If this game was in Denver, I’d be a bit leery.  Denver 1-4 ATS and 0-5 on the road.  Philly 5-0 ATS and 5-1 ATS at home.  But to quote Ferris Bueller: “A) You can never go too far.  B) If I’m gonna get busted, it’s not going to be by a guy like THAT.”  Bet on Brock Osweiller, that’s rich.  My abs STILL hurt from laughing that hard.  

Take the Eagles -7.5

Green Bay is off the bye and the Lions come into town for Hundley part 2.  You’re going to think I’m going to make a case for Detroit on the rebound?  Nope, I’m done trusting Detroit for awhile.  GB on the bye IMMEASURABLY helps Hundley as they probably simplified the playbook for him and they game planned for him for the last 2 weeks.  And GB is getting points?  At home?  Detroit is 1-4 ATS and 2-4 ATS on the road.  Det 1-4 playing GB and 1-5 ATS in GB.  GB a resounding 24-1 SU at home vs Detroit.  And I’m getting points?  

Yeah, GB +2.5

And now it’s time for the lock of the week.  Usually, when I give picks I have stats supporting my argument.  But this week, I’m going against the history.  The Rams have lost 7 straight against the Giants, 0-5 ATS.  Rams are 2-4 on the road this year but this is more of an anti-Giants pick.  In fact, it’s a dead nuts against pick on the Giants.  No Jackrabbit Jenkins as he’s suspended indefinitely.  Sources say McAdoo has lost the locker room.  Maybe he should’ve made a map where it is.  Ba-dum, ching! (Puts gun to head and pulls the trigger) Both teams are off the bye which means fresh legs but not anyone noteworthy on the Giants offense except for Ingram and Sheppard.  And whoops, Rams are the 2nd best defense against the TE so Ingram will get taken care of.  Rams are the 2nd highest scoring team in the NFL and I see a heavy dose of Todd Gurley.  I’d rather sit on a casting couch with Kevin Spacey than put money on my NY Giants this season.  

Rams in an easy one, -4.5

 

Week 8 NFL picks

5-2 last week (Jax, St Lou, Saints, GB under and Titans under but lost Wash and Cincy), just what the doctor ordered.  And you know what you should order?  Your tickets to see the LIVE Comics Watching Comics Show on 11/18 at Gotham Comedy Club, 5pm.  The show is being taped for Amazon Video so come out and see the up and comers as well as current comers (insert TT Boy or Ron Jeremy joke here, you hacks).  So go to http://www.gothamcomedyclub.com and get them now.  No bullshit, tickets are moving at a nice clip and the room is small so act now.

What a well played, defensive game on Thursday!  Said not by me; because I fell into the Matt Moore hype machine and got torn apart like a flat earth supporter.  So 0-1 to start and hopefully this week ends with more bang than those JFK files that were released.  Seriously, if I wanted something without an ending, I’d rewatch that lazy Sopranos finale. You call that an ending?  I call it a “lazy way out” in an attempt of being avant garde. 

Usually, I love to back up my handicaps with facts but my leadoff pick is strictly a gut one  as well as based on trends.  Was anyone impressed with the Pats win last week?  I wasn’t.  They weren’t great against the Jets either.  I think this is the year that if the Pats have to go to KC or somewhere else with a tough crowd, they could fall in the AFC championship.  In come the LA Chargers, who finally got their first “home” win against a dogshit Denver offense.  Phillip Rivers who can backdoor a cover like the best of them (seriously, how is there not a gay bar named Backdoor Cover?  Come on Mets fans, someone can make a lot of money with that!) is getting 7.5 against the worst ranked Pats defense.  Yes, I know NE is typically tough at home and yes, their D has been better of late.  Yes, I know Rivers can wave his magic wand and make a pick 6 appear on the board with less than 2 minutes week.  Yes, I know that this is a west coast team playing on the east coast at 1pm.  But any gambler knows you’re playing the number, not the team. 7.5 points is that special number.  The Chargers D is pretty good and I just see them hanging tough tomorrow.  The best stat I can give you is that the Chargers are 12-4-1 ATS on the road.  Jump on it now before it drops!

Take the Chargers +7.5

Deshone Kizer is the Browns QB…this week.  I’d rather have Kaiser Wilheim as my QB, at least he wasn’t out partying till 2 am last friday night in Cleveland.  And now they fly to England  to face the Nikes who just rolled the Ravens.  Vikings are most likely getting back Stephon Diggs and that’s just going to make things more nightmarish for Cleveland. Do you see Cleveland scoring more than 10 points?  Neither do I.  They hit 20 points ONE time all year, as I pointed out last week.  By the way, this morning at 5:30 am, someone pulled the hotel alarm.  I don’t know what they had for breakfast, which really would make this a, “who gives a shit” story. But it’s always fun when the team you want to bet against gets woken up early in their hotel.  Cleveland has the #8 defense (and #3 worst looking women, next to Pittsburgh and Philly) so it’s going to be tougher to score against them too.  Oh yeah, one more fun fact.  Minn is 8-0 the week before their bye.  This game wreaks of 20-7 so you can pretty much figure out where I’m going with this.

Take the Vikings -9.5 and the under 37.5

You know what I forgot to do, besides write better jokes in this article?  I forgot to take Seattle and the under last week against my Giants.  Those are absolute locks, Giants NEVER beat them and sure as shit can’t put points on the board.  But I’m not missing a chance this week and I’m taking Seattle this week.  Why?  Well, let’s do a social commentary first.  The Texans owner said that he didn’t “want the inmates running the asylum” and that cause quite the kerfuffle in Houston.  But if Bob McNair makes another comment like that, he may end up like Steve McNair.  KA-Boom, pun intended.  DeAndre Hopkins walked out of practice and it took the entire coaching staff to persuade the entire team not to follow suit.  You think they’re going to get fired up before getting on a plane to Seattle?  Seattle at home is pretty damn good, 5-2 ATS recently.  I see Watson having a harder time in a hostile environment.  Seattle under hit in their last 4/6 and Houston under hit 4/6 on the road.  But I think Hou COULD put up points but not enough to cover.  You’re only laying 6.5 and Houston is missing Watt and Cushing on D.  And like I said, a team pissed at their owner.

Take the Seahawks -6.5

The Colts give up an avg of 30 points a game.  That’s pretty goddamn awful, like Anchorman 2 awful.  The Bengals are home after getting skewered by the Steelers last weekend. The Colts have went 4/5 over, 10/11 over on the road, and 4/5 over in Cincy.  42 is a low number and I can EASILY see the Bengals dropping 27 points on Indy.  All you need from Brisett and company (sounds like a furniture store) are 2 TDs.

Take the Bengals over 42

Pittsburgh just destroyed the Bengals.  Martavius Bryant got demoted to the practice squad.  Detroit is off a bye and apparently shall have Golden Tate back.  Detroit isn’t great in primetime but here’s the stat that grabbed me: Pitt is 0-5-1 the week before their bye.  Pitt has improved their road ATS but I think they fall asleep at the wheel.  This game may end up in a push but let’s find out:

Take Detroit +3

And now, the lock of the week.  The Bears just shocked the pants off of the Panthers at home, 17-3.  Guess what?  14 of those points were pick 6s.  Trubisky threw SEVEN passes last week.  As I said last week, the Saints defense is better (good enough that the under hit) and they’re in New Orleans this week.  The Saints are back to their old ways of lighting it up at home and there’s just no chance that the Bears can keep up.  The Saints are 4-1 ATS and 4-0-1 ATS against the Bears.  I know it’s a high number but can you see a rookie QB matching Brees?  Nope.  

Take the Saints -9.5

I also kind of like this week: Carolina 5-1 ATS, 6-2 vs TB, 5-1 in TB.  TB 4-9 home ATS and 0-4-1 ATS.  Carolina is getting Luke Keuchly back as well.  I also like Sea under 45.5.  Seattle has gone under 4/6 and Hou on the road is also 4/6.  I think the Chiefs rebound at home after 2 bad losses and cover the 7 against the Broncos.  Lastly, I think the Bills can cover 2.5 against the Raiders at 1pm, in Buffalo.

Week 16 NFL Picks Against the Spread ATS

107271

5-4 last week, worst week I’ve had in a while but still over .500 for the week so the streak continues.  But first, Merry xmas and happy hannukah. The picks are coming early as they are a shitload of games tomorrow vs Sunday. Hopefully you have a betting day than Carrie Fisher’s recent plane ride. I have a lot of facts for you but doesn’t meant I’m taking ALL of these games. Check my fb video with my little Aryan offspring tomorrow for the official picks. But I guarantee that the picks I make are from this list.

I’m a student of trends and gut calls. That’s why I’m almost at 63% for the year.  So let’s get down to getting you (and me) freeeeee money!

You know the Jets are garbage and they proved that Sat night against the Dolphins. This week, they face Tom Brady and the Cheatriots. They already locked up a first rd bye. But I don’t see the Jets getting blown out. Jets are 7-0 ATS against the spread vs the pats and  Pats are 12-25 ats when they are favored by double digits. 17 points are wayyyyy too many. Pats will take their foot off the gas by halftime and I don’t care if Ray Lucas is quarterbacking. 

Take the Jets and a mountain of points.

I really like the Colts in Oakland this week. Indy destroyed the Vikes and their playoff chances last week.  Visitors are 15-2-1 ATS in Oakland and the Raiders as a home favorite are 10-24-1. Indy is 4-1 straight up against Oak and they’re getting 3. Shockingly, the Colts still are in the playoff race so this game means something for them.  And surprise, I like the over too. The Indy defense is trash and we know the Oak defense can be suspect. I loved Oak over last week but those assholes fumbled twice in the red zone as well as had to settle for a FG when they were first and goal on the 1. How about cold, hard facts? Indy has hit the over in 6/7 road games. Oak has hit over in 6/7 home games. overwhelming evidence like that has me plunking down cash on both.

Indy plus 3.5 and over 53

The Ravens let the Eagles score 9 points in 10 minutes last week to screw that bet. Then Doug Pederson in his infinite wisdom cuts it to 1 with a TD with :04 left and then goes for 2?  UGHH.  At least I could’ve had a shot in OT.  People shit on Eli for coughing up the ball but Flacco isn’t far behind; if not equal, in this department.  A fumble and pick in 2 different trips in the red zone sure didn’t help last week.  The line is Pitt -5 and that’s just way too high for them. No gut call here, 11/15 of their games have ended in 3 points or less.  Pitt is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 but this train stops cold here. 

Take the silly purple uniforms plus the 5.

The Bears are on fire and Matt Barkley is proving me wrong every week. Bears are 5-0 ats in their last 5 and in comes in Washington off a short week and a complete beating administered by the Carolina Panthers. Bears getting 3 at home after nearly upsetting GB? Why not?

I’m going with the Bears +3

Tampa covered for me last sun night against Dallas. In fact, they almost won. They beat the Saints 2 weeks ago in Tampa. Hence why everyone loved them this week, which scares the hell out of me.  I hate being on the public’s side and I think Saints can win -3 but not confident enough to take them. But here’s another stat: 11/13 of the games between the have resulted in an under. And it’s high this week, 52.

I’m taking the under Tampa 52, yet again.

Didn’t think I would be wagering on these idiots again this season but the time is right. The Rams are home against the Niners and Jeff Fisher is no longer the coach to screw things up with that 80’s porn mustache. The Niners are trash and the Rams came close to knocking off the Seahawks last Thursday. Nine days to prep for a team that hasn’t won since…beating the Rams week 1. I’m inclined to take the Rams -4 but here’s a few more numbers for you: Rams at home have hit the under 6/8 and 5/6 times vs the Niners.

For sure, taking the Under 40 and maybe Rams -4

Seattle has been off for 9 days as well and they’re up against an AZ d that got scorched in New Orleans. Sea on a 2nd straight home game is 22-7 and they’re also 19-4-1 ATS in Dec. the line is 8 and Carson Palmer can poop it up like no other. Here’s another fun fact: az is over 5/5 and 5/5 over on the road.

Probably taking Sea -8 and maybe over 43

Carolina on a short week and when Car and ATL play, 6/7 times are on the under when both teams play.  

I’m going with the under 51.

Packers are 13-1-1 against the spread at home and the Vikings are limping in and without Adrian Peterson.  

I’m taking Green Bay -7

And now, it’s time for my Stone Cold Lock of the Week.  (That’s a big lock)

images

A lot of people are liking Miami in buffalo. Do I trust Matt Moore on the road? He destroyed the Jets last week, BFD. I have Landry in my fantasy championship so I hope he does it again. Let’s see him do this for 2 weeks straight. LeSean McCoy has been crushing run defenses like I was crushing puss a single dude. Those were the days, sigh. BUT let’s talk over/under. Buffalo has hit the over in 5 straight home games. Buffalo has hit the over in 9/10 games. And Miami has went over in 7/8. Those numbers are good enough for me.

Take Mia over 42

 

 

NFL Week 10 picks

Last week 2-3-1 after Den and the Browns didn’t show up.  The Titans gave that game away and the Jets fucked me to a push as Fitzpatrick went Fitzpatrick.  Clean slate now, let’s do this!

107271

 

Well, not so clean slate.  I took Cle over last week and Flacco and the Cle QBs fucked me but good so I missed that one.  So, starting the week 0-1.

Drew Brees is home and facing a Den offense that couldn’t score against the Raiders.  The Raiders?  That defense is putrid.  Also will mention Derrick Wolfe and both Den CBs are out.  Denver can’t stop the run and if Ingram doesn’t fumble, they can run the ball down their throats.  Did I mention Drew Brees is home?

I’m taking the Saints -3

The Jets are home with a Bryce Petty at QB and the Rams come to town.  Both teams score less than white men with Khloe Kardashian.  This reeks of 17-13.  The under is 39 which means VERY little wriggle room but I just don’t see the scoreboard lighting up unless there is a power surge.

I’m taking the under 39.

Carolina is home against a beleaguered Chiefs who is without Maclin and Justin Houston on defense.  Bet the Chiefs at home, don’t touch them on the road.  Carolina is making a mini run and 3 points isn’t too much to ask for but then again, people who took Carolina said that last week as they got backdoor pushed.

I’m taking Carolina -3

I cannot see Pittsburgh losing this week.  I don’t care Dallas is hotter than Donald Trump’s daughter.  (I’d make her a mix tape, that’s how hot she is).  Pitt had a rough week last week but Ben will be ready to roll.  They’re home, the line is only a FG, and I think the Black and Yellow squad stop those dildos from Dallas.  Dallas is due for a loss and here it is.

I’m taking Pittsburgh -3

San Diego has done nothing but cover spreads as an underdog.  I just don’t know if Miami is going to through a monkey wrench on their “home field advantage.”  SD doesn’t handle success well but here’s what I do know, SD puts up points.  And Miami could put up some points as well so what does that mean?  That’s right, enjoy watching both teams score points.  Jarvis Landry is probably playing as Hunter Henry and Tyrell Williams.  Travis Benjamin is doubtful but I think points can be scored.

I’m taking the over 49.

I hate the Patriots but goddamn, they’ve made me a ton of cash.  I took Brady in 2 leagues and waited out the suspension so I look like a genius.  Pats are off the bye and at home against Seattle.  Buffalo came into Seattle and scored more than everyone thought would.  Seattle’s D isn’t what it used to be.  Flying across country after playing a monday night game and going into New England is about as fun as watching Hillary fake laugh her way through a speech.  Dion Lewis is back as well so more weapons for Tom the Trump supporter to play with.  Bellichek is >60% ATS at home and I plan on riding that money train into the sunset.  

I’m taking NE -7.5