NFL picks ATS Week 9

First off, a shameless plug for my show on Twitch TV called, Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber.  See how we do with our gambling picks as well as fantasy football recommendations.  We’ll be on next week at 6pm under the Be Terrific banner on Twitch as well as Facebook Live.

Unreal.  We’ve just turned out clocks back and as I typed out, “week 9”, I realize how time does indeed fly.  Remember how getting to your birthday, summer vacation, or losing your virginity seemed to take a lifetime?  Fuck, we’re now halfway through the NFL season.  It was only 2 months ago that my buddy and I were hopping around like idiots in Vegas where your boy went 7-1 opening weekend.  Last week, I righted the ship and went 5-3, bringing me to a robust 35-24 and more importantly to 59%.  Jesus Christ, that’s spectacular!  I hit the Colts, Skins, Pitt Over, Seattle, and the Packers as the lock of the week.  Lost the Bengals as they blew a 17 point  lead late after Fitzpatrick and his beekeeper beard returned to action and backdoored that game.  I called the Saints winning outright, wish I took them instead of the over.  The Saints over was ahead of pace at halftime but Minnesota couldn’t do dick in the second half, leaving me 4 points shy of the over.  And the Niners ALSO blew a 2 score lead in the 4th quarter against Arizona. As we know, the best laid plans…

Week NAWWWNE started off with a clunker for me as every sharp better jumped on Oakland +3 when Beathard was announced as questionable on Wednesday.  As the line went down to Oakland -1 when Beathard was ruled out, you can figure out who started to plan on spending that sweet, sweet, freeeee money.  And then a pesky little thing called, “the game” occurred.  That’s where Nick Mullen sliced and diced through that putrid Oakland defense like he was Peyton Manning in 2006.  Hell, Mullen didn’t throw his FIRST incompletion until late in the first quarter.  SF ends up blowing out the Raiders and you’ll be lucky to find someone this year to put cash on them this year, even if it’s against a bunch of bearded hipsters wearing skinny jeans with Lena Dunham as the quarterback.  The way the Raiders defense has been playing, she could do a 5 step drop back, tweet how white men are the worst, and find a “male feminist” open on a crossing route.

So 0-1 to start this week, let’s pick some winners!

Lock of the week:

Pitt 4-1, 6-3 ATS on road and 8-0-1 SU.  Baltimore got smoked in Carolina and hasn’t had their bye yet, they’re looking TIRED.   I love taking divisional teams as dogs as they know each other well and Pitt will be looking for revenge after the first matchup showed them to the loss column. The Steelers run D is morning boner solid, 5 total TDs to RBs this year
Pitt +3, now +2.5
Minnesota is back after losing to the Saints and now they get Detroit.  And if you’re the Lions, you’ve traded away a guy who caught 70% of his targets.  You’re playing a top 10 scoring defense and 6th against the pass rush.  Oh, the Vikings also have the 5th best red zone defense  I’d rather back Donald Trump at a Menudo concert than back the Lions  this week. Explain this line: If Detroit played this game at home, it would be Detroit +1?    Minn needs the game, is at home where they’re 16-7-1.  Adam Thielen doesn’t fumble, that’s a completely different game  Detroit giving up 5.5 ypc and 2nd most rushing yds in NFL, nahhhhhh
Take the Vikes and their stupid SKOL chant -5.5
My favorite game show as a kid was the Price is Right.  And boy, the price is right here.  Denver trades away it’s number 1 WR…TO THE TEAM THEY’RE PLAYING THIS WEEKEND? Houston is red hot and the Broncos have cracked 20 points ONCE this year.  Houston with 10 days off and Lamar Miller is running like he’s leaving Honduras behind.  2 100 yd games in back to back weeks sounds and now against the 28th ranked run defense a good enough reason for me.  Bonus reason: oh yeah, how about a run heavy team (Denver) going against the best run defense in the league (Texans). 
I have no idea why the line is a pick em but I got Houston in this week.  And if I waited a day, I could’ve had them +1.
Cleveland has a new head coach, new offensive coordinator.  At home against the white hot Chiefs, oh boy.  Cold hard fact: When a home dog is 8 ore more, the under is 21/23.  18, 23, 14, and 12.  Those are Cleveland’s last 4 games worth of points.  Yes, we know KC puts up points.  But will Cle put up their share, especially under new coaching?  I say no.
Quick and easy pick: Cleveland under 51.5
Tennessee has a top 10 defense and Dallas can’t score, except their fans score insanely high on the BMI and diabetic scores.  Seriously, how many skinny Dallas fans do you know?  That aren’t on drugs.  Or homeless.  Tennessee hasn’t allowed a RB over 80 yards and Zeke is the key to that offense.  Does Dak Prescott scare you?  As much as Ernest P Worrell did.  Dallas can win by a FG but that’s not the spread.
Take the Titans +5.  I can never pick them right but I think I figured them out for this week.
Bills stink and the Bears aren’t putting up points against the Bills defense. Low number, I know.  But this game has 20-6 written all over it.
Bills under 38.5
Games I like and may take, depending on the number.
Saints with an impressive win in Minn (I called it, you’re welcome) against the undefeated Rams.  Rams are 1-3-1 ATS and Saints are 5-0 ATS and SU.  10-1 SU at home.  Rams aren’t covering and I think the Saints eek it out in a shootout.  
Saints at home and getting 2?  Boy, I’m waiting to see if I can get to 3 but still like +2
Tampa goes into Carolina where they’re killing it SU. But against divisional opponents and the Panthers are -6 or more, they’re 0-5.  Fitzpatrick may be down but with that offense, they can backdoor it easily.  You see that commercial with JB Smoove?  It shows McCaffrey has some real acting chops.  He really convinced me like he understood what the hell JB was saying.  JB Smoove sounds like the black Swedish Chef.
Wait and see if it gets to 7 but TB +6.5 could be the play.
 It’s supposed to rain in Seattle, duh.  But Seattle is a heavy rushing offense.  Melvin Gordon is back for the Chargers so that gets them in the running spirit as well.  Chargers have gone under 6/9 on the road.  Seattle has gone under 5/6 and under 4/5 at home vs the Chargers.  
Seahawks under 47.5
Aaron Rodgers stinks on the road, he’s below 50% ATS.  Pats are back home and firing on all cylinders.  Sony Michel looks like he’s going to play.  And one of the worst names ever, Ha-Ha Clinton Dix, just got traded.  He’s the best defensive player on an awful defense.  Where was DYFUS for an intervention on that name selection?  Pack 1-4 ATS on the road and 0-5 SU.  Pats 4-1 of late, 9-3 ATS at home.  If it’s 7, you take the Pack.  But anything less, it’s an easy call for cry baby Brady and his tubby Unabomber coach.
Patriots -5
Advertisements

NFL Week 10 picks

Last week 2-3-1 after Den and the Browns didn’t show up.  The Titans gave that game away and the Jets fucked me to a push as Fitzpatrick went Fitzpatrick.  Clean slate now, let’s do this!

107271

 

Well, not so clean slate.  I took Cle over last week and Flacco and the Cle QBs fucked me but good so I missed that one.  So, starting the week 0-1.

Drew Brees is home and facing a Den offense that couldn’t score against the Raiders.  The Raiders?  That defense is putrid.  Also will mention Derrick Wolfe and both Den CBs are out.  Denver can’t stop the run and if Ingram doesn’t fumble, they can run the ball down their throats.  Did I mention Drew Brees is home?

I’m taking the Saints -3

The Jets are home with a Bryce Petty at QB and the Rams come to town.  Both teams score less than white men with Khloe Kardashian.  This reeks of 17-13.  The under is 39 which means VERY little wriggle room but I just don’t see the scoreboard lighting up unless there is a power surge.

I’m taking the under 39.

Carolina is home against a beleaguered Chiefs who is without Maclin and Justin Houston on defense.  Bet the Chiefs at home, don’t touch them on the road.  Carolina is making a mini run and 3 points isn’t too much to ask for but then again, people who took Carolina said that last week as they got backdoor pushed.

I’m taking Carolina -3

I cannot see Pittsburgh losing this week.  I don’t care Dallas is hotter than Donald Trump’s daughter.  (I’d make her a mix tape, that’s how hot she is).  Pitt had a rough week last week but Ben will be ready to roll.  They’re home, the line is only a FG, and I think the Black and Yellow squad stop those dildos from Dallas.  Dallas is due for a loss and here it is.

I’m taking Pittsburgh -3

San Diego has done nothing but cover spreads as an underdog.  I just don’t know if Miami is going to through a monkey wrench on their “home field advantage.”  SD doesn’t handle success well but here’s what I do know, SD puts up points.  And Miami could put up some points as well so what does that mean?  That’s right, enjoy watching both teams score points.  Jarvis Landry is probably playing as Hunter Henry and Tyrell Williams.  Travis Benjamin is doubtful but I think points can be scored.

I’m taking the over 49.

I hate the Patriots but goddamn, they’ve made me a ton of cash.  I took Brady in 2 leagues and waited out the suspension so I look like a genius.  Pats are off the bye and at home against Seattle.  Buffalo came into Seattle and scored more than everyone thought would.  Seattle’s D isn’t what it used to be.  Flying across country after playing a monday night game and going into New England is about as fun as watching Hillary fake laugh her way through a speech.  Dion Lewis is back as well so more weapons for Tom the Trump supporter to play with.  Bellichek is >60% ATS at home and I plan on riding that money train into the sunset.  

I’m taking NE -7.5