Tag: derek carr

2021 NFL picks week 2 Against the Spread

Back from Vegas and caught up on sleep (finally) where I was accosted by not one by two, Aunt Kathies. Both were above 60 however one looked like she could still compete in beauty pageants (no bullshit) and the other…well, let’s just say she was quite excited to apply suntan lotion to me while talking about her “cooter.” And of course, who could forget about the Raiders fan we saw last monday night at the bar with his jersey name being, “Raider Pussy” and the number 1.

5-3 last week, 1-1 this week as I took the Giants +3.5 (hit) and 1h under 20.5 (miss) So that brings me to a total of 6-4 for the year and remember, all the videos starring the Cookie Monster are on IG and FB (if you’re lucky enough to have me as a friend3

Lost the Bills last week teased down to .5 as I thought they’d win and they sure dominated the line of scrimmage. But a fumble for a TD and going for it on 4th and failing twice did them in. Pitt D played well and now they face the Raiders who opened their stadium in grand fashion, an OT thriller that HAD to leave them spent. I just hope Raider Pussy 1 makes the trip to Pittsburgh to support his Raiders. Derek Carr was the worst QB last week against pressure. And has Lois Einhorn said in Ace Ventura, “What do you know about, PRESSURE?” I know Carr was 1/9 with a pick under pressure and if Pitt can make Josh Allen look like Josh McCown, they’re gonna do wonders to Carr today. And no Josh Jacobs either, I’m not joshing you with all of these Joshes. Vegas is 1-4 SU in Pitt but 7-1 ATS against Pitt. Pitt is 5-1 ATS at home in September so that should make you feel better. I can’t see the Raiders coming into Pitt and making much, if any, noise. I grabbed it at 6.5 but as of 10:52am, the line is back down to 5.5, when I should’ve grabbed it. And that’s the rule kids, don’t wait to get cute. You see a number you like, lock it in before it goes to or above a key number (3 and 7)

Pitt -6.5 (medium bet)

For those of you who watched the Pats game, you saw they Pats were about to go into the end zone against the Fins and then coughed it up. I have to think there’s less than zero chance that Bellichick loses to a Jets team who got manhandled by Carolina. Oh yeah, their stud OL Beckton is out now. Pats defense will easily send Wilson running around for his life. Pats 5-2 ATS against the Jets but 10-0 SU against them and 5-0 SU in NY. Jets are also 1-9 ATS in September so inspiring about as much confidence as an immunocompromised patient licking a subway pole. This one SHOULD be an easy one.

Pats -5.5 heavy

Can’t believe I’m typing these words but christ, here we are…I enjoyed Sebasian Maniscalco’s last standup special. Just kidding! I like the Bears this week. They played a solid game against the Rams defense, Montgomery had over 100 yds rushing and Dalton was decent. Stafford just threw some quick strike bombs (covered w the Rams in 2 different teasers and a ML parlay) but never really had control of the game like you would think. Bengals played an OT thriller where they got lucky that the refs called a fumble for Dalvin Cook that wasn’t. But ya boy had that Minn over and sucked that out. So Cincy is 1-18-1 SU on the road but 4-2 SU on the road against Chi. Wow, that’s odd. Bengals defense has more gaping holes than Hope Solo’s leaked nudes and I think Dalton does enough to win, plus the number is on the right side, 1.5 but I locked in at 2.5. Not really worried about that swing. Bears are 5-0 ATS against AFC north teams but 1-4 SU at home of late. Again, those numbers are out of whack as Dalton just became their QB. I think they do enough to win by that FG

Bears -2.5 medium

I have the Colts as an under for this year but remember, key numbers are in play here. As stated above with the Bears, Rams were good but not as dominating as you thought. Here’s the stat of stats for you. Colts have lost EIGHT straight week 1 games and have won 3 straight week 2 games. They’re getting back Quinton Nelson which should be a help to Wentz. Colts are 5-1 ATS against NFC and Rams are 1-5 ATS against an AFC team. Again, the number is key as it’s 3.5 and home dogs who are 5-2 ATS this year already. I think the Colts keep it tight

Colts +3.5 medium

Panthers manhandled the Jets last week which is as surprising as Josh Gordon manhandling weed. BTW, he got reinstated AGAIN this week. That’s how you know it’s about to be fall, when Josh Gordon gets the thumbs up from the league. Even Steve Howe said, “enough is enough.” And now for the handicap which is going to be a lot of what I said above, home dogs cover a bunch. And now, let’s take it a step further. Mike Lombardi said divisional home dogs cover ~64% of the time. Also, Saints are missing a TON of coaches due to Covid and their best CB, Lattimore, is out with a hand injury. Winston treated Green Bay like Biden handled the Afghanistan exit, sloppily. But did you know he didn’t have 100 yds passing till midway through the 4th quarter? Wow. And get this: Under Brees the Saints are 8-1 SU against Carolina BUT 2-5 ATS. Meaning they play them tight.

Car +3.5 medium

I think we all know that Cleveland, TB, and GB are going to respectively murder their opponents like Cardi B murders the English language. But as a savvy gambler, you’re not laying double digits in the NFL. And I don’t feel like laying out money line prices like -650 cause god forbid you lose one of them, you’re down a lot if you bet all 3. So I made a 3 way money line parlay bet with those 3.

3 leg ML parlay Cle, TB, GB. heavy

The Browns can put up points as can Houston. Both defenses stink so let’s focus on some over stats: Vikes and that fractured locker room led by that wacky Kirk Cousins has gone over 4/5 of late. Zona has gone over 5/6 at home and we saw what they did to Tennessee’s defense that only be compared to Bayonne, NJ. Browns have gone over 6/9 of late but under 4/5 against Houston at home. Teasing both of these games makes 27-20 games both winners. And I have HALF an inkling to take Houston +13.5 and if that hits 14 by kickoff, I’m on it.

Teaser Browns over 41.5 and Vikings over 44.5 medium

I’m afraid of a lazy backdoor cover by the Falcons even though they showed as much fight as Terry Schiavo during a tug of war against the Eagles last week. I expect TB to come out firing as they’ve had 10 days off and after almost losing to the Cowboys, not letting up one bit. Don’t be surprised to see TB up by at least 10 at the half and not have to sweat the second half and a backdoor cover.

TB -7 heavy

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NFL Sports bets picks ATS week 7

I wrote a review on Borat 2, go to my blog to check it out.

Well, it finally happened and it took 6 weeks to do it. I had my first losing week last week, 3-4. Down to 59% ATS this year, first time below 60%. Got super lucky with Indy, insanely unlucky with the Ravens, and watched the Cowboys shit the bed hard. What in the living fuck was I doing putting hard earned money on Andy Dalton? Just like Ghislane Maxwell, let’s forget everything before now and move onto this week.

Green Bay got raped and pillaged by the Bucs defense last week. Did you know that the Packers had ZERO offensive turnover until last week? And then Rodgers throws a pick 6 and another INT the following series. On the wrong side of that blowout but you know what’s a smart thing to do? Take a good time just off a blowout and against a bad team. GB 4-1 ATS in last 5, 5-2 SU on the road, and 5-1 ATS against AFC. Houston just had a gut punch loss in Tennessee last weekend and they’re just had a black cloud over their heads: 1-6 ATS of late, 4-9 ATS at home. Houston defense ranked 27th which means they’re barely getting participation trophies. Pack 3-0 ATS after losses. Matt LaFleur said they had a shitty week of practice leading up to the TB game. I don’t think they have the same issue this week. The number is damn near perfect so jumping in both feet on this one:

Green Bay -3

Sam Darnold coming back for the Jets gets me as excited as sitting in traffic. But they’re catching Buffalo at a bad time. Back to back losses and now they’re playing a divisional opponent. Jets are 0-6 ATS and SU this year. Jets under 8/12. I just can’t see a world the Jets score. They’re starting a kicker making his NFL debut and without the only mediocre weapon on offense, Jameson Crowder. The defense has given up 25+ points in 4/6 for the Bills but if they get White back on defense, this makes this a true shit show for the Jets. Jets have put up over 20 points ONE TIME this year. I love the under but I love it when I MAKE IT PART OF A TEASER!

First leg of the teaser- Jets under 50.5.

Second half of that teaser is the game of the week. Those yinzers and butcher of the English language from Pittsburgh are undefeated and they’re also facing the Titans of Tennessee, also without a loss. Pitt 4-1 ATS of late and I know, they’re not as good on the road. Their D is in the top THREE in all the land. But Tenn is 2-4 ATS of late and their defense has given up 30+ points in 3/5 games this year, also ranked 26th. The line flipped to Pitt getting 1.5 points this week as I think the public is still trying to figure out the Titans. You know what’s even easier to figure out? Not 80’s hairdos, that’s for sure. That’s a lot of cocaine and shitty Duran Duran music influencing our judgement. Taylor Lewan (lineman) out for Titans and Pitt yields a scant 2.6 YPC, lowest in NFL. I think Ben definitely keeps it close but nothing better with a 6 point buffer…

Second leg of the teaser-Pitt +7.5

I don’t want to live in a world that the Chargers can’t beat the Jaguars. I also don’t want to live in a world that people think Lizzo is hot but here we are. Chargers fresh off the bye and they got Mike Williams back who blew up against the Saints. I know the numbers are against the Chargers and Anthony Lynn can fuck up a cup of coffee. But after the Jags shocked the world in week 1; sans the one game they almost beat the Titans, the Jags are spreading their cheeks like female standup comedians are on Only Fans pages. Jags are 1-4 ATS of late and 0-8 ATS of late. Hell, they’re 3-10 against AFC west. Herbert has looked great out of the chute. Again, I can’t imagine a world where the Chargers don’t cover 7.5 so no better insurance…

First leg of another teaser Chargers -1.5

I’ve learned you shouldn’t bet the Lions unless they’re playing Jacksonville. I’ve also learned Detroit style pizza, not that bad. But you can hitch your wagon to 3 things: Lions can score, Lions D sucks (of late, 24.6 PPG), and Detroit women are as appealing as a Penn Station bathroom. Lions are over 7/8 in Atlanta and 5/7 over vs NFC south. You can apply the same exact logic to the Falcons except Atlanta women are more attractive but more bougie. Is that hell you spell that? Who gives a shit, you’re here for picks, not grading SATs. Falcons D is 32nd in YPP and 31st in total defense. At least their offense has went over 5/7 and 7/8 home against Detroit. We need a second team to tease so let’s make this one easier than an Adam Sandler movie plot.

Second half of the teaser, Detroit over 48.5

So this next pick I locked in on Friday night as I read the Oakland Raiders had 4 offensive lineman on the Covid list. I guess they were too close to each other placing bets at one of their fan’s dogfights. Well amazing news, I read Saturday night all 4 lineman were tested and cleared to play tomorrow. Well, guess who already locked in Tampa -4? This guy. Well shit, these things happen. And of course, the numbers don’t back up this play: 2-4 ATS against Vegas and 1-5 SU in Vegas. Vegas is 5-2 ATS of late but 1-4 at home. Here’s hoping that the Bucs don’t look past the Raiders and that David Carr and his offensive lineman go licking slot machine handles at Circus Circus. Knock on wood if you’re with me.

Tampa -4

The name of the game is value. Which is the exact reason I keep your moms around; really good bang for the buck. Stop if you heard this before: The Saints are great in October. The Saints are awesome off the bye. But remember, we bet numbers. And the Saints are down Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders this week, that’s HUGE. Teddy Bridgewater knows that Saints playbook Ben Affleck knows where to find the best blue chip hookers and the shittiest scripts. Saints give up on average, 3 RZ TDs per game. Saints won’t have that raucous home crowd and they’re 2-6 ATS of late at home. Saints 2-4 ATS of late while Carolina 4-1 ATS against NO. I’ll take the points against the Saints without 2 of the WR.

Panthers +7

Here’s what I know. It’s supposed to snow like crazy tomorrow in Denver. Like blizzard like conditions. And the total has dropped to 44 KC hasn’t been that offensive juggernaut they were last year and that “run first” offense against Bills on Monday proved that. KC under 4/5 and 7/9 vs AFC west. Broncos under 4/6 and 4/5 against KC. Den under 13/17 at home and 11/12 vs AFC West. Now they go to Denver with a defense that’s stout against RBs. Perfect time to buy some value with another teaser…

First leg of the teaser Chiefs under 50

Seattle 370 passing yds per game. Only guys who haven’t thrown for 300 against Seattle are Kirk Cousins, Kirk Hammett, and Kirk Cameron. Seattle has gone over 4/6 but 5/5 in Arizona and 6/9 vs Arizona. I’m going to ignore the numbers and think Russ off the bye does what he does best and that Kyler Murray gets that Klingsbury air raid going as well

Second leg of teaser Seattle over 48.5

One more teaser, Pats +3 and Bills -4

Happy gambling and eat shit, Eagles fans.

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NFL Week 8 picks ATS

If you missed this week’s, “Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber,” you can catch it right here.  Catch me next week on Twitch at 5pm under Be Terrific.  Fast forward to about 4:30 in for the start of the show.

4-4 last week, meh.  Lost TB and the over.  Lost Bal and SF over.  Fucking Beathard turned that ball over more times than someone on the fix.  Couldn’t score more than 10 points in garbage time? I hit Bal under as that Tucker miss solidified the under for me.  Hit my lock of the week with SD under and thankfully, Vrabel went for 2 after that late TD.  Either way, I was winning that one.  Late hits with the Chiefs and my NY Giants brought me to .500.  And of course that, “too little, too late comeback attempt but successful backdoor cover” for the Giants.  And don’t bother with a butt sex joke, we’ve done them all.  Especially all while sitting in a steam room at NY Sports Club.  30-21 on the season which puts me at 59% and better than most Vegas handicappers and MUCH better than the weathermen and weatherladies.  Quick would you rather: Land a weatherlady or land an anchorwoman on any of the Hispanic channels?  I vote Hispanic anchorwoman.  No reason, I think it’s just a slightly higher accomplishment, as long as you don’t land the one that is also cartel member’s girlfriend.

The Lock of the week: I know the Rams just made the Niners look flat out silly last week.  Aaron Rodgers is 4-0 when the Packers are getting more than 6. Off the bye, 9-2-1. Allison and Cobb will be back. Rams 6-11-2 last 19 at home ATS. Gonna be a ton of GB fans.  So barely a home field advantage for GB.

Take GB +9.5

Facts are facts: Drew Brees is a strong MVP candidate this year.  Some people are trying to downplay the revenge factor the where the Lattimore whiffed on a tackle, Stefon Diggs runs for the TD and an insurance company endorsement deal.  Saints 4-1 ATS and 5-0 SU out of their last 5.  The line went from Saints +1 to now Saints -1.5.  Time to wait this out till Sunday as the public has obviously pounded the Saints.  Minn 3-5-2 last 10 and 1-3-1 at home.  Also, the Saints have went over 52: 6/9, 7/8 vs Minnesota, 8/10 in Minnesota, Minn over 4/6.  

I’m taking the Saints -1.5 (Waiting till tomorrow to see what the line ends up) and over 53

The Steelers have been over 6/8, 4/5 at home, Cle under 4/6 and under 4/6 on the road. 8/12 vs Pitt.  Plus, Pitt D has let at least 21 points to QBs.  21 is also the number of sandwiches most women order at Primanthi’s, 21 also the number of times they’ve hooked up with their uncles, and 21 is also the number of IQ points those water heads have.  

Plunk down some buck on Pitt over 49 (I bought it down to 48.5)

After the Chiefs game sunday night, Cincinatti looked like Houston after her 500 man gangbang.  Now they’re home and not on prime time which is key for Andy Dalton.  He’s like A-Rod, showing up when there’s no pressure but shrinking when the spotlight is at its brightest.  No Gerald McCoy and Kwon Alexander on defense for TB and boy, does Jameis “One Star Uber Passenger rating” love turning that ball over.  That fruitcake screwed me out of that over last week with all of those turnovers last week vs Cleveland.  Cincy 6-3 ATS of late and 5-2 at home.  Bucs 2-11 SU on the road.  

Grabbing the Bengals -3.5

Seattle one of the best rushing the ball, Detroit one of the worst defending the rush.  Seahawks off a bye and getting 3 points?  Heiiidy HOOOOOO.  

Taking the Seahawks +3 and their obnoxious fans.

Colts flying west to facing the Oakland Raiders who are in flat out, “selling anything not nailed down” mode.  Apparently, Derek Carr isn’t crying, YOU’RE CRYING.  They traded away Cooper who wasn’t really doing anything all that special anyway and Lynch is on IR.  Now I ask you, where are the points coming from?  Jared Cook?  I’d rather have Jared from Subway.  Raiders also 2-13 ATS against teams that have a bye the following week.  

Take the Colts -3

Bonus picks

Bears have Mack listed as questionable. But where are the Jets getting their points from?  All of their WRs are out: Enuwa, Robbie Anderson, and Wayne Chrebet all out for the Jets.  They signed Richard Matthews and who cares?  He couldn’t stay on the Titans roster?  Jets 2-5-1 on the road. 0-4-1 in Chicago. Bears 11-4-1 at home.  I know the Bears haven’t laid more than a TD in well over 5 years but again, where are the Jets getting their points from?

Take the Bears -8 but going to wait till kickoff to see the number.

Speaking of teams that are else selling their body parts for science, the Giants are home and that will be the last game of the year I attend.  As much as I enjoy the randy talk and spirited menu fare of my buddy, I can’t stomach the thought to pay to see this team nor freeze my ass off any more this year.  Giants trade Eli Apple and his annoying mother to the Saints (no big deal) and Snacks Harrison (huge deal, #1 run stopper in the NFL) to Detroit.  Washington escapes with a win against Dallas and Jason Garrett’s ability to fuck up a glass of water.  Washington 4-2 ATS of late and I know the history favors the Giants but I’m going against a team almost ready to bench their QB.

Take the Skins -1

The Niners just got smoked.  I don’t feel like going to a full handicap except that from one of my favorite gambling podcasts, RJ “Mushmouth” Bell’s Vegas dream preview, all of the guys love the Niners because the Cardinals stink and the last time they faced each other, the Niners lost but were +5 in turnovers.  They rebound against an awful Josh Rosen with turf toe.  4 likes from those sharps are enough for me to like it too.

Niners -1.5

 

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Week 8 NFL picks ATS (against the spread)

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Well, it took 5 weeks but I finally had a losing week as the Falcons shit up a 17 point lead, Fitzpatrick bails out Geno Smith (you read that right), and Minnesota got mauled in Philly.

Seattle played a marathon stinker last sunday night as the game ended in a tie of FGs.  Russell Wilson is banged up but remember the last time I said that, he decimated the Jets.  Whoa, whoa, whoa, stop the clock.  You know who is out for Seattle?  Michael Bennett AND Kam Chancellor.  2 guys that would normally make Drew Brees life hell but not today.  Drew Brees at home AND getting points?  Here’s a stat to make you feel better:  Saints are 28-8 ATS at home after a road loss.  You had me at Drew Brees getting points at home

I’m taking the Saints +2

Raiders have stayed on the east coast after decimating the Jags (then again, who hasn’t?  How Gus Bradley still has a job means he has a considerable amount of blackmail material against the owner).  Derek Carr has been doing not as well this year but well enough to win. Stats?  You got it.  Oak in EST, 9-10 ATS.  Ok, fine.  But Oak this year is 4-0 on the road and TB is 0-4.  Also, Bucs at home are 6-23 straight up, 9-20 ATS.  No Doug Martin and Gerald McCoy is banged up.  Oak is -1, so they just need to pretty much win outright.  Both defenses stink so let’s really capitalize on this.  I’m thinking this has 28-24 written all over it.

I’m taking the Raiders -1 and over 49

I’ve fallen for this several times this year and I’m sure most of you have as well.  The Super Bowl hangover is real.  But goddamnit, if Cam Newton stinks it up after a bye again, you can put the Panthers in the “untrustworthy” category.  Arizona comes to play at 1pm on the east coast so you have that going for you…which is nice.  And they ALSO played 5 quarters in that sunday night stinkaroo.  Are you trusting Carson Palmer on the road?  I’m not

I’m taking Carolina -3

Dallas is off the bye and home.  Dallas has won games because of Elliot, their O line, and D.  Dak Prescott is managing games well; sans the Niners game where he ran all over them, he’s not making huge throws.  Dallas may very well win this game.  BUT…Philly’s D has been shockingly great.  They have some good special teams and yes, Wentz has come a little back to Earth.  Eagles have won their last 3 in Dallas.  And let’s talk ATS, which is nothing like ATM, you perverts.  Dallas is 9 out of their last 34 ATS as a home favorite.  Philly as an underdog vs Dallas is 26-9.  The spread is too high, this game is going to be closer than 5 and Philly can even win outright.

I’m taking Philly +5

I haven’t had one of these in awhile but goddamnit, this is the Lock of the Week.

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We’re back on the Tom Brady, “Fuck you” bandwagon.  I’ll be shocked, shocked, SHOCKED! (Another Mad Dog reference) if Brady doesn’t run them out of their own building.  First meeting this year, Pats were shut out since Michael Dukakis thought he had a chance to win the presidency.  Bellichek isn’t getting swept this year.  And he’s certainly not forgetting the pre-game mini brawl that took place a month ago.  The line has moved up to 6 but I don’t care.  McCoy is probably out, so is Watkins, and Clay is banged up.  Their defense looks like the team North Texas in Necessary Roughness.  Brady and the boys run them out of their own building.

I’m taking the Pats -6

 

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Fantasy Football Draft #2 recap.

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Well, you’re either a fantasy football junkie, an advice seeker, or back to shit on my draft.  Either way, welcome back.  Draft #2 was on August 24th and here’s my team.

Yet again, I had the 3rd overall pick.

1st pick: Antonio Brown.  Yep, you read that right.  My buddy (fellow Giants fan) wanted OBJ because he loves him and the guy who was going #2 wanted him so he snaked him.  But I’ll GLADLY take AB at 3, he’s a goddamn beast.

2nd pick: Allen Robinson.  He absolutely blew up last year and a lot was because Blake Bortles put up great garbage time numbers.  I don’t care, he’s nasty and I’ll gladly have a slight decline in numbers because he’s still a top 5-10 WR.

3rd pick: Amari Cooper.  Smell a theme?  Yeah, I’ll double down on Cooper in another league.  Remember, Oak WR face the 2nd most favorable match ups against shitty CBs. Yet again, I have a NASTY trio of WRs.

4th pick: Thomas Rawls.  Had to get the best RB left on the board.  Coming off an injury and the Hawks do run that ball quite often…

5th pick: Jeremy Langford.  No real competition and he shakes off last season’s rust and runs with this opportunity.  Passed on Matt Forte because he’s old and banged up…

6th pick: John Brown.  In case you missed it, Carson Palmer throws a lot.  And the end is coming very soon for Fitzgerald, despite last year’s Phoenix-like return to greatness.  Michael Floyd is injured often so I’m going with the guy who can straight out haul ass.

7th pick: Frank Gore.  Doubled down on Gore because I wasn’t going with Giovani Bernard and it was too early to go on a QB not named Rogers, Wilson, or Newton (all of which were taken by now.  Although it didn’t stop one guy from taken my boy Eli in this round…)

8th pick: Kevin White.  Rookie year, injured.  He’s the number 2 WR on a team where the #1 gets injured regularly.  And Jay Cutler likes to throw too…mostly to the other team but once in awhile, he’ll find his man by mistake.

9th pick: Derek Carr.  Made a leap last year and yet again, 2nd easiest schedule vs CBs.  Doesn’t hurt that I have his #1 target either so might as well double dip with the connection.

10th pick: Zack Ertz.  I think this was the steal of the draft.  Yes, this guy is always touted as a breakout candidate but no more Chip Kelly and maybe a new rookie QB in a few weeks.  TE are usually the safety valve so what the fuck…

11th pick: Sammie Coates: Doubled down on him again because Ben will have at least 2 games where he throws for close to 500 yds and AB can’t get them all.  Markus Wheaton is trash and this kid is gonna get those #2 targets.

12th pick: Tevin Coleman: If this guy doesn’t get injured last year, Devonta Freeman is a nobody.  He’s healthy and they ran the shit out of Freeman last year.  And believe it or not, a few dummies have started to take defenses and kickers in this round.  Thanks for the donations!

13th pick: Jameis Winston: Backup QB and he faces the Bears D.  Good enough for me.

14th pick: Brandon McManus: Second to last round so time for a kicker.

15th pick: Patriots D: Last pick and these guys get their fair share of DST TDs

Thanks for reading and share with a friend.  Follow me on twitter @KevinGootee and stay tuned during the NFL season for ATS pick!

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