2021 Superbowl bet and prop bets

We all have a million reasons why 2020 sucked: Covid, unemployment, and Wonder Woman 1984. Just kidding, no one had hopes for that film. But this is the first year in 3 that your favorite football handicapper fell below 60% for the year. In fact, this year was WAY below, 52.3%. Which is a tick below the break even line of demarcation (52.5%) so yeah, fuck 2020. 58-53-2 including the playoffs where I went 0-5 in championship weekend. Yeah, I haven’t had that bad of a week since I can’t remember how long. 2-7 in the playoffs sure as shit isn’t going to get it done. So I have one pick (side, no total) for the big game and a ton of props that I won’t count toward the W/L record. So let’s see if we can close out this season on a tear like we opened the season.

Goddamn, did I fall into the “GB at home in January against a warm weather team” trap again. Rodgers STINKS in the NFC championship; went 3 and out TWICE when the defense picked off Brady. But here’s what made me sit up; Tampa Bay FEASTED on the GB backup left tackle. JPP and Shaq Barret were all over him like a freshman girl who loudly announces this is her first fraternity party. And will you look at that, the Chiefs LT tore his ACL in the championship game. When Fisher plays for the chiefs, 25-1. When he’s out, 3-3. The Chiefs o-line is alright at best. And now BOTH tackles are out? We know Maholmes handles pressure better than anyone. But Rodgers does a damn good job and where did that get him? Nowhere, fast. Ahhh, you know what ol Jack Burton always says at a time like this? Sorry, I start quoting “Big Trouble in Little China” when I get in the mood. TB also has the #1 rush defense PLUS it’s supposed to rain which also plays right into TB’s hands.

Let’s talk numbers now…1. That’s the number of car accidents that Andy Reid’s kid (assistant on the staff) got into on friday and gave a kid life threatening injuries. So yeah, that just may be a bit of a distraction. Sorry to lead off with a somber note but hey, it’s fresh off the wire (paper tearing sound effect). Next number, Chiefs are 1-5 SU against TB and 1-4 ATS in TB. And most of those numbers are with famous Jameis Winston as QB. Let’s also consider the next factor, road warrior. TB seems to be channeling the road dog mentality or as we all should call it, the 2006 NY Giants who won all their road games and kicked Tom Brady and his shot at an undefeated season right in the cunt. The Bucs have averaged 33 points in their last 10 straight games. Defense talking points: Bucs are 5th in DVOA, Chiefs are 22nd. Final point: you don’t think the NFL narrative wants Tom Brady to win (at home!) without Bellichick? If the Chiefs didn’t win last year, I’d be all over them. And when was the last time any team repeated as champions? Answer: Brady’s 03 and 04 Patriots. You also want to bet against Brady who is 6-3 in bowls? And you know Brady sees Spagnuolo across the sidelines who happened to spoil 2 of his Super Bowls and want a little retribution. We know KC is great off byes but I’m taking defense against a banged up o line plus experience with Brady.

Tampa Bay money line +145 is my bet and I placed it 30 minutes after the second game of championship weekend. Tampa will be the first team to win a Super Bowl in its own city.

Props:

Tails. You know I take that shit every year and it has hit 3 years straight.

Shortest TD: under 1.5 yds. “Deep ball into the end zone, broken up. Flag on the play!” Music to my ears and then you can dial up a Maholmes or Brady sneak or a Fournette run up the gut.

3Q outscores 1Q: Everyone starts slow in Super Bowls, especially Brady. It’s a junior high school dance, everyone stands around, afraid to make the first move. 2nd half is when people get ballsy.

2nd half outscores 1st half: Same reasons as I cited above.

1st half 28.5: UNDER. Again, the same reasons I showed above.

Roughing the passer: YES. Usually everyone is on their best behavior in the Super Bowl but again, Brady gets more flags than the United Nations. BAM! BURN! And especially on his own field, those refs will toss one if his tampon string blows in the wrong direction.

11.5 accepted penalties: UNDER- Refs keep the flags in their pockets for this unless it’s the obvious false start or encroachment. They’re gonna let them play unless the QBs get coughed on.

Kelce anytime TD. He’s a red machine magnet. Which is what I call dudes who love having sex while women are on their periods.

Gronk anytime TD. As much as I hate nostalgia based love for films on “Gutting the Sacred Cow” (you better subscribe NOW and enjoy this amazing podcast: https://guttingthesacredcow.com/where-to-listen-see-us/), I think Brady gets one to Gronkowski for all time sake.

Brady to throw a 3q TD- YES

Brady to throw a 4q TD- YES

First QB to get sacked: Brady. He has the mobility of the My Pillow guy. AFTER he stopped smoking crack and put weight back on.

NFL against the spread picks week 15

Maaaan, another week of see-sawing, 2-3 last week and grabbed the Baltimore under this week which got decimated, gross. 45-38 for the year, 53% which is still ahead of the curve. I took GB and Den in a teaser last night which of course, lost. Then I grabbed GB and Miami under which is still in play.

You can make case for either the Pats or Fins and I could buy either of them. Bellichick owns rookie QBs, Miami own the banged up Patriots. But I’ll take the road less traveled: Pats 5/5 Under, 5/7 under. Miami under 4/6, 5/7 against AFC, 4/6 AFC east. The Patriots offense has recorded 220, 291 and 179 total yards the past three games. In the first Patriots-Dolphins meeting in Week 1, the teams totaled 32 points, and that was with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB and healthy WRs and RBs for Miami. Pats missing RBs, WRs, and Geisicki, Pats are missing anything resembling a playmaker on offense. We’re teasing someone else so might as well give ourselves more of a cushion.

Teaser leg #1 Miami under 47.5

And here, I apologize to all of you, and myself, for talking us into teasing the Giants who got blown out last week against Arizona. Sigh, just when you think you have them figured out. Here’s what I do know: The Giants are WOUNDED this week: Engram has a late injury (questionable) Colt McCoy is back in (farts), but the most IMPORTANT player on the Giants is out due to Covid is James Bradberry. He’s EASILY been Gettleman’s best signing this season and maybe for his career. Top 3 corner for sure and now he’s out. Also out, Jason Garrett and a few other Giants coaches are out due to covid and their LBs coach just left to coach Illinois. So who is calling the plays for the Giants? Fab Five Freddie Kitchens. (Rodney Dangerfield collar tug) Cle 2-6 ATS but 4-1 SU of late. 1-4 ATS and SU against Giants but this is pre-Baker Mayfield. 1-4 SU on road. Giants 5-2 ATS, 4-1 SU of late, 4-12 ATS at home. I just don’t see the defense holding stout without Bradberry and Cleveland absolutely needing the game. Maybe the Giants hold tight but I just need Cleveland to win outright with this teaser.

Second leg of the teaser Browns -.5

Edit: I grabbed last night a GB and Miami under teaser so that’s still alive!

Buffalo played a great game against Pitt, one of the 2 wins I had last week. This is the 2nd cross country flight for the Bills. Also, did you know the Broncos are the SECOND BEST ATS in the NFL? Denver defense #2 in pass TDs allowed and #7 in sacks. Den 5-1 SU home against Buffalo, 4-2 ATS vs AFC east. And of course, this is Josh Allen’s first trip in altitude. This could a spot when Buffalo is caught looking ahead and Drew Lock can play well enough to keep it close. Double digits, why the hell not.

First leg of teaser Den +11.5 ALREADY LOST

Look, Carolina is playing teams tough but they’ve been hit with Covid. No Christian McCaffrey, sigh. That was fun taking him #1 in my buddy’s league and then missing the playoffs by 1.8 points. Yep, you read that right, ONE POINT EIGHT FUCKING POINTS. It’s cold in Green Bay tonight but Carolina 4-2 ATS in GB, 1-4 SU. GB 5-1 SU last 6, 11-1 SU at home, 4-1 SU home against Carolina. This is a lot to say for simply stating I’m taking

Second leg of teaser GB-1.5 ALREADY LOST

Quick handicap Hou 6/8 over on the road, Indy over 4/5, 7/9, 8/11 vs AFC. Watson fumbled late to lose the game but this game definitely has points scored. And Watson gets back his #1 WR with Brandin Cooks.

1st leg of 7 pt teaser Indy over 44.5

Matt Stafford is expected to play with a busted thumb and torn rib cartilage. And the last time he did that, he got shut out by the Carolina Panthers. And if Chase Daniels goes, olly olly oxen free! Det 1-4 ATS against Tenn, 0-5 SU, 1-5 SU in Tenn. Tenn 4-2 ATS, 12-5 SU. Titans and Derrick Henry run right through that awful defense.

2nd leg of 7 point teaser: Titans -2.5

Two words: DWAYNE HASKINS. I know Seattle isn’t covering for shit and not looking solid of late: Seattle 3-6 ATS, 9-4 SU. 1-4 ATS on road, 2-5 vs NFC. I know the Skins are playing REALLY tight defense and covering. Washington 4-1 ATS and SU, 4-14 SU at home. 6-2 ATS at home. And I know I would rather sit in a public restroom in a stall between Louie Anderson and Carl Winslow after they both went out for fajita Friday than lay a nickel on Dwayne Haskins. So I took Seattle down to virtually a pick em and will watch them grind out a 1-3 point win.

First leg of teaser: Sea -.5

Gonna COMPLETELY go against conventional wisdom and I got this next leg of the teaser from my buddy, Nick Whitmer. Rams 4-1 ATS and SU, 5-1 SU home against Jets, 1-4 ATS vs AFC. Hets 4-9 ATS, 2-8 ATS against Rams. The Rams are gonna hatefuck the Jets into oblivion but shit, 17.5 is a TON of points. But can the Rams win by 2 TDs and not blow a backdoor cover after pulling their starters? I think so. I know we’re not teasing through 7 and 0 but I think this one comes home easily. The Jets lone chance to win 1 game is against the Pats, not on the road in LA

Second leg of the teaser: Rams -11.5

Pitt 2-4 ATS but 11-2 SU. 10-3-2 ATS, 10-0 SU, 6-2 ATS against AFC. Cincy 1-4 ATS but 4-1 ATS at home

Movie review: Borat 2

Well, the big day is here for yours truly as Borat 2 dropped on Amazon Prime. I fired that thing up this morning and it does NOT disappoint. What’s new? Borat as a daughter he’s trying to gift to Mike Pence and other high ranking American officials as a form of penance for making Kazakstan the laughing stock after his first film. The first 20-30 minutes are wall-wall great jokes. I haven’t laughed this hard since I watched the Jets play football last Sunday. I’ve said before, Borat is the funniest film is in the last 15 years without questions. And the sequel does it justice, no doubt. But like the first one, the third act does run out of steam. And SBC definitely pulls punches a little when it comes to some of his material in the first film, i.e. the Jews and retarded people. BTW, I was sad there was no mention of his brother Bilo or his prostitute sister. I had hopes she would’ve moved to #3 or even #2 prostitute in K-stan by now but alas, no word.

He does open up both barrels for those on the (far) right as you might have suspected. And I guarantee the far right people are going to piss and moan but fuck ’em, funny is funny. His daughter has comedy chops and she’s fucking hysterical when she’s getting made over. And goddamn, the abortion clinic scene is hysterical. Don’t get your panties in a bunch, just watch the scene and you’ll see what I mean. I just wished I didn’t have to wait 14 years for a sequel. Let’s hope the 3rd comes in less time, if there is one.

Not as good as the first but still, pretty funny. 7 out of 10 and I’ll be rewatching this soon.