Week 12 NFL picks ATS Sports betting.

5-5 last week, 60-65-1 this year…I just can’t get above .500 on a weekly basis. So here we go.

Call this the knee jerk “too many points for a home divisional game) reaction. Atlanta has covered 1/5 of late and 0-3 ATS against teams with winning records. We all know Tampa is king at home but 1-5 ATS on the road. Tampa under 4/6 of late and All 4/6 under of late BUT Tampa has gone over 5/5 when playing at Atlanta. This game can easily be as much of a shootout as there will be in Buckhead later that night.

Atlanta +11 and over 50.5

Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are gametime decisions, much like oral sex. Sometimes you feel like doing it and it’s too musty like you’re in a basement for your liking. Cards have scored 40 plus in past 2 road games against the Bears. They’ve also won all 6 of their road games by 10 or more. Bears are 0-3 as a home dog as well as covered just 1/6 games. Zona 7-2 ATS and 9-2 SU of late, 4-1 ATS against Chicago. Bears 1-5 ATS of late. Andy Dalton going again and I don’t see Arizona taking their foot off the gas; especially with 2 weeks to prep for this. But 7.5 is a funky number sooooooo

Arizona -1.5 teased with Philly -1

The Giants are road dog warriors but you better calllllll somebody to play on offense because backup Mike Glennon is in there and he inspires as much confidence as looking for a sparking clean bathroom in Tijuana. Giants have gone under 5/6 and with that backup, they’re going to take things sloowwwwllyyyy and conservatively. Dolphins 2nd in expected points and 3rd in turnovers within the last month. Giants are 31st in YPG and 28th in offensive points expected. Miami 5-1 ATS as a home favorite and 12-4 ATS at home.

Dolphins -5 and Giants 1h under 20

Talk about the PERFECT outcome; I teased the Colts and that hit but they lost which helped my Colts under 9 bet for the year. Colts are 6-3 ATS of late, 5-0 ATS in Houston, and 6-1 ATS against Texans. Houston has allowed 17 rushing TDs and have are 31st in yds allowed. Went 1-5 when Wentz has a turnover. Houston 3-6 ATS of late and even better when Tyrod is playing. So let’s tease this baby:

Colts -2.5 and Eagles -.5

Nothing makes me happier when the Giants beat the Eagles. Hopefully, they’ll drop a bath bomb in Giants stadium after the Eagles/Jets game tomorrow from those Golden Corral loving fans. Philly losing last week against the G-men spells doom for the rancid Jets. Philly is 10-0 SU, 5-0 SU on the road, and 5-0 ATS against the Jets. Jets dead last in PPG allowed and second to last in QBR so that inspires zero confidence. But don’t feel like laying 7 even though it’s going to be no shocker that they blow the Jets outta there. But I teased them twice as I feel that confident with them winning outright.

Jags are 5-10 ATS of late, 2-18 SU. Also, 1-4 in LA and 0-10 SU on road. BUT Jacksonville 2-0 ATS as a double digit dog. 3-1 ATS when getting 7 or more. And I could give a rusty trombone fuck about those positive Jaguar stats. Rams have lost 3 straight and if a miracle the size of Pauly Shore making me laugh, their playoff hopes are kaput if they lose to the Jags. This is the spot where they get to take out their frustrations like a mailman on a lonesome housewife. I don’t like laying dd’s (except the cup size, heigh ohhhh) which is why I teased them down below a TD.

Rams -5.5 with Pats +10

Speaking of another get right game, Rothliesberger said this will be his last year so he can fully enjoy pushing women into bathroom stalls all year round. Bal is 4-0-1 in Pitt but here’s the stat of all stats: between those 2 teams, a team favored by more than 3 is 1-13-2. The average margin of victory is 1 point. Harbaugh in Pitt is 13-13. Baltimore has scored under 17 in their last 4/5. Tomlin is 42-21-2 as an underdog, 4-2 this season. And the cherry on top: Lamar 5 INTs in 2 starts against Pitt and sacked 9 times with more good news: TJ Watt has been cleared to play

Pitt +4.5

It’s supposed to be garbage weather in Buffalo, which means it’s just a normal day outside of June-August. That favors that Pats d that smothers like Kim Kardashian’s ass when Pete Davidson tosses her salad. And for the love of christ, how did this all-time worst cast member of SNL who looks like a meth’ed out chipmunk land all of these women? Buff 4-0-1 against AFC east teams. But I’ll wager the Pats run game slogs through the Bills defense. Pats are 6-3 ATS of late agains the Bills, 6-0 ATS of late. They’re also 8-1 SU in Buffalo. Wanted to get this to a premier number which is why I teased it to 10.

The Chargers run defense is worse than people who sit in first class for the first time and take pictures the entire flight. The Bengals just Cleveland steamed the Steelers with a 40 burger last week, over 4/5 of late. The Chargers can score points as easily but recent trends have the Chargers recently under 4/5 on the road. Again, I think I got a key number at 50.5 and it even dropped. This game has 27-24 with ease.

Bengals over 50.5

NFL picks week 8 against the spread

It was only a matter of time before this taint tickling handicapper got back on a winning track. 9-2 last week, 40-33 for the season, 55% for the year so we’re back in the black. And just as my thursday night luck continued, guess who had Arizona teased down to -.5? Christ almighty, what a shitty way to end a game. I’d rather stand in from of Alec Baldwin with a prop gun in his hands than watch a WR not turn around with :14 left in the game. So we’re starting the week 0-1, yuck. Here we go:

I want someone to explain how the Bills (home against the Dolphins whom they blew out a few weeks ago), Rams (at houston who couldn’t cover 20.5 spread and just traded away Mark Ingram), Bengals (against the Jets backup) and the Chiefs (losing 2 straight and now at home against the Giants) are going to lose. You can’t. So this week’s big spread, 4 way ML parlay is…

Bills/Rams/Bengals/Chiefs

I have made money on them when teasing them and lost money on the betting them straight up. Some of you would rather bet on bum fights in Detroit vs their football team and I don’t blame you. And goddamnit, if not now, when for the Lions? They’re home and Philly has lost 3 straight to Detroit. 3 consecutive starts for Jalen Hurts under 60% passing completion. Philly 1-5 SU of late and 1-5 ATS against Det. Also, Philly is 2-8 ATS on the road.

Lions +3.5

Titans have been damn near a guarantee for the over of late; as much as Dune was a guarantee to be MEH. Great visuals, plot line was nothing remarkable and heavily influenced by Star Wars. Titans 11/16 over of late, 5/5 over on the road. Colts 4/6 over vs the Titans. This game has teaser all over it and with the teaser, EASILY 24-21. Kirk Cousins stinks in primtetime but I think points will be had by both teams. And I locked this bet in during the week before Dak Prescott’s calf acting up like a white woman who just got bumped from first class to coach. So hopefully he plays Sunday night and it helps the second leg of my teaser. Dallas over 5/6 of late, 8/9 over vs NFC, Vikings are 6/9 over of late, 12/18 games have gone over on a Sunday. It’s a high total, even with the tease, but I think this game can get to 27-4 with ease. Dallas AVERAGING 34 ppg this year, Minnesota averaging 24.

Titans over 44.5/Dallas over 49

Baker Mayfield is playing this week with a banged up shoulder and working on a Michael Strahan gap toothed smile as he rakes in $ making Progressive commercials. He’ll be looking to keep that shoulder protected so I smell handoff city. I think this game starts off slow as most of these Cle/Pitt games usually do. Pitt under 4/6 of late and 6/8 under in Cle. Lastly, 37-12-1 for Pitt road games and that’s good enough for me.

Cle 1h under 21

Remember last year when the Pats went to LA and beat them Pats 6-0 ATS and SU against LA. We know Bellichick off the bye is fantastic and they gave the Cowboys and Bucs a run for their money. Chargers 8-2 ATS and SU of late but the Chargers run D is worse than sitting next to someone in first class who’s never sat there and takes nonstop selfies. Christ, act like you’ve been there before. Most rushing yds allowed and most yards per rush by the Chargers D. Patriots run that ball well and that’s gonna be the game plan. Chargers may win this game but it will be close. So why not make this less of a white knuckle and tease the Pats up. And the other half of the teaser is taking the obvious Bengals down below a TD. Cincy is 4-1 SU of late, 4-1 ATS on the road. Bengals are 4th in yards per play and 6th in yds per attempt. Jets 1-6 ATS and SU of late, 2-8 SU at home. No Zack Wilson but honestly, that doesn’t matter. Mike White, Jack White, Vanna White, IT DOESN’T MATTER WHO IS QB FOR THE JETS. I can’t imagine the Jets covering, let alone winning. But again, why make this a nail biter?

Bengals -4.5/Pats +10

Who wants to bet on Jameis Winston? Not even his mother would most of the time unless it was betting on him stealing crab legs. Bucs 14-1 SU of late and 10-1 SU on the road. But guess where their kryptonite is? The Blue Oyster Bar. That and New Orleans where they’re 1-5 ATS and SU. Saints are playing surprisingly well of late, 7-3 SU at home and 8-3 SU home (most of that sample set with Brees) Saints have gone 7/9 under of late. I think the Saints keep this close and might even win. They’re gonna do everything in their power to keep the ball out of Brady’s hands and keep that clock running. Saints are 10-2 ATS as an underdog and Bucs are 0-3 ATS on the road this year. So let’s boost our odds for both by taking…

Saints +10.5/under 56.5

Everyone and their grandmother (she’s loose with the morals as well as loose with the pocketbook) loved the Eagles last week. I talked about fading that pick with my buddy Nick cause that’s always a bad sign. This week, everyone loves the Colts after they went into a bomb Cyclone in SF and won. BTW, Bomb Cyclone would be a great name for a stripper’s pussy or Mortal Kombat finishing move, or why not combine the both?

Titans have been a nice surprise of late, 5-1 ATS and 5-1 SU of late. Indy 4-0 ATS of late but Tenn is 4-0 ATS against teams who made the playoffs. Derrick Henry has 4 straight 100 yd games against them. I hope Indy doesn’t win because I have the Titans to win division as well as Colts under 9. But if the Colts were to win, it won’t be by more than a TD. Sooo, let’s tease this it up as well as grab the Bengals again.

Titans +8.5/Bengals -4.5

Get ready to say, “no shit, how?” Geno Smith has covered 7 straight starts. Jax 3-7 ATS of late, 1-19 SU, 2-4 SU against Sea and they got their win out of the way before the bye. Do you see Urban Meyer being able to coach in that stadium? Seattle hung tight with the Saints and I think they can cover 3 (it’s 3.5 now but I locked this in on Thursday). Yes, Sea 1-5 SU of late, 1-4 SU at home. Russ Wilson is coming back next week, hopefully, and if they have any hope of making a run for the playoffs, they need this game.

Sea -3

If the line gets back to 10, I’ll take the Giants if Toney and Sheppard play. The Giants are 8-1 ATS against KC, and 11-3 ATS on the road. Chiefs 3-14-1 of late ATS and 1-8 ATS at home.

NFL picks week 4 ATS 10/2/21

Still picking splinters out of my b-hole as I took a bat to the backside last weekend, 4-6. How the hell did the Vikings NOT hit the over after there were over 30 points scored at the half!??! Philly ate shit as did the Chiefs so first week under .500. Always tough to keep at a 66% clip but great news, I’m still 58% which definitely keeps you going back to the window to CASH THOSE TICKETS. Ready for freeeeee money? Great! And don’t spend your winnings checking out the new Sopranos movie, hoofa, did that suck.

Why bury the best game on the slate? Rams are home after disappointing the Bucs teased to +7.5 and they’re facing the also undefeated Cardinals. Let’s give some stats and this is going to smack you across the face like a Roman soldier helmet; the real thing or the sexual act. The Rams are 10-2 SU and 5-3 ATS at home. Rams offensive line is morning boner solid, only 3 sacks allowed all year. McVay 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS against the Cards and his AVERAGE cover margin is 14 points. Cards AVERAGE 16.5 ppg against the Rams. How about some Kyler Murray stats? His QB rating against the Rams: 31, 12, 53, and 38. That’s really awful. Speaking of awful, how about that Sopranos film? Christ almighty, what a Cleveland Steamer of a film. But here you have it, undisputed evidence why the Rams are the play. I teased the Rams to a pick em along with the Bengals -1.5 so halfway home! I also teased the Bengals and Rams over to 48.5 as the Rams are 5/5 over at home. I can easily see this being a 31-20 game.

Big spread ml parlay special this week: Bengals, already covered. Bills 11-3 ATS and 10-2 SU of late, Hou 1-7 SU of late. You mean to tell me the Texans stand a cunt hair’s chance in Buffalo? I sure don’t. But I locked this parlay in on Wednesday which was before Julio Jones and AJ Brown were ruled out. The Jets have scored 20 pts IN 3 GAMES ALL SEASON. Yes, the Titans defense is awful but here’s a nugget that doesn’t hurt to poop out: Derrick Henry AVERAGES 146.6 yds in each of last 9 games. Tenn is 2-4 ATS of late but 13-7 SU. Jets 1-8 ATS and SU at home. I’m not saying this is going to be pretty; I’m saying like this would be paying to have sex with a stripper from Belleville, NJ…not proud of it and certainly not telling your friends but it will get the job done.

Bengals, Bills, Titans ML parlay

There shouldn’t be many points in this game due to the Jets sucking and the aforementioned two wideouts sitting: Jets under at home 11/17 and overall 6/7 of late. So let’s hold our noses and pray for heavy doses of Derrick Henry.

Titans under 44.5 and Titans 1h under 23

Well, the NY Giants continue to burn me like I was accused of heresy or homosexuality in the 15th century when betting them as a favorite. Now they head to the reopened Superdome after the hurricane washed away leftover Oakleys from drunk people leaving them after falling asleep in an alley of piss. Saints D is tops, #1 in PA, #2 in yards allowed. Hey guess what? No Slayton or Shepard in the lineup this weekend. I don’t care that the Giants are 10-2 ATS on the road, they’re 4-8 SU of late, 1-5-1 ATS, 2-5 SU against the Saints. Winston not wowing people on offense but I cannot see the Giants storming back to backdoor this one, let alone win. But why take a chance so I teased the Saints down along with the Titans

Saints teaser -1.5 and Titans teaser -1.5

Saints under of late 5/5 as well as 5/5 vs NFC and the Giants are 5/6 against the NFC. Pitt under 7/10 of late, 12/17 on the road, and 6/7 vs NFC. Ben is cooked and Pitt’s d can slow down Aaron Rodgers enough to keep this score below 51.5 with the tease

Giants teaser under 47.5 and Pitt teaser under 51.5

The TB line baffles as much as people who find Sebastian Maniscalco funny. We get it, he reminds you of your Italian family with goofy faces. He’s making a mint with his merch and I’m typing up NFL picks on a Saturday afternoon, he wins! But I can’t see a possibility that the Pats win; I don’t care that Brady is running the Pats offense in Tampa. I care that Brady off a loss and ready to shove it up Bellichick’s dickhole. Bucs are 8-4 ATS of late, 10-1 SU, and 8-1 SU on the road. The Pats are 2-5 SU and ATS. Pats have been underdogs at home 19x since 2000 and they’re 14-4 ATS. How many are with Brady? IDK, I’m not giving that much of a shit. Name one Patriots offensive player that you have to circle. I’ll wait. Still waiting. I’ll see a better Sopranos movie before you give me someone who strikes fear into any of your hearts. The Pats strength is running the ball and we all know how the Bucs can stop the run. The Pats have NO ONE who can expose the Bucs secondary so how are the Pats able to score points? Antonio Brown is back but Gronk is out. I see nothing but a Bucs win but didn’t want to lay 7 in the goofy backdoor instance.

Saints teaser -1 and Bucs teaser -1

Who are the Bears starting at QB? Cade McNown, Jim Miller, or Rex Grossman are all candidates vs what Fields did last week agains the Browns. Chicago got blown out 2/3, Allen Robinson has 4 straight games under 40 yds. Call me insane but I like the Lions which the Ford family hasn’t said in a long time except when talking about tax write offs. I had the Ravens in 2 teasers and the ML parlay so when that Tucker FG took a fortuitous bounce, I shit myself pretty hard. Harder than David Chase did when writing that Sopranos film. Ok, I’m done with those references, I promise. But the Bears are -3, who the fuck are they to be laying ANY kind of points, especially when they have YET to name this week’s QB. Detroit has played hard for 2.5 out of 3 games this year and we all know they should’ve won last week. Lions previous numbers don’t back the play but remember these are all with Stafford and not Goff: 2-4 ATS and 1-4 ATS in Chicago. I think the play is to play a 7 pt teaser and get the Lions to over 10.5. Watch the Lions win outright…

I’ve hit the Vikings dead nuts last week and bet their over every game this week. BTW, Thielen has a caught a TD in 11 straight October games. This Browns D stinks and they’ve covered 2 games over the past DECADE against the NFC. Browns 1-7 SU vs Minn, 1-4 SU in Minn. Minn is 12-3 SU in October and 6-2-1 ATS in week 4. Give me wackadoo Kirk Cousins who has been top 3 QB this year so far catching 10 points.

7 pt teaser Vikings +10 and Lions teaser +10.5

After my buddy Nick gave me a few stats, it’s hard to unsee these stats: Seattle is 15-5 ATS against the Niners, 13-2 SU, and 6-1 SU in SF. Niners are 4-8 ATS of late and 0-5 SU. And now Seattle is catching points AND off 2 losses? This is do or die time for Russ to air it out like Rodgers did against SF last weekend. If not now, when?

Sea +3

NFL Week 17 against the spread picks

Last week was a complete shitshow and probably the worst week I’ve had in YEARS. Lost the Hou teaser, AZ, GB under, Steelers under teaser, and Rams. Only thing I won was Buffalo for a total 1-5 week, dropping my total to 49-44 and that’s an all time low for me, 53% for the year. Goddamn, a shade above break even and we’re going to get up to 57% after the Superbowl, that’s my promise!

Goddamn, I said this since last week when the Skins lost. The Giants are winning this week. Yes, I know the Giants are 1-4 in last 5. Cowboys d allowed 30 points in half their games this year. Dallas 2-8 SU on the road, big shot but 5-2 ATS of late and 7-0 SU. Last game, Giants lost on a last second FG when they knocked Dak Prescott for the year and clown pussy head Andy Dalton led them down the field. Garbage weather today/tomorrow in north Jersey which plays right into the Giants hand. And of course, who knows Dallas better than the clapper himself, Jason Garrett. Giants just might win division or they may get the 3rd pick in the draft, it’s a hell of a swing.

First leg, Giants +7.5

It’s obvious the Texans have quit. Exhibit A: Brandon Allan 370 yds against the Texans defense. You gotta be shitting me, all they had to do is just win and I would’ve hit that teaser. Texans are 5-11 ATS of late, worst in NFL. I don’t care JJ Watt called everybody out; including Wade Phillips D cups.. Titans are 4-2 ATS of late and 13-6 SU. Titans are 6-13 ATS against Tenn and just got off of royal ass beating in GB. Derrick Henry is gonna run through defense like I ran through half of Terminal C before I had a diarrhea attack before a flight.

Second leg of teaser: Titans -1.5

The Niners have been trick for me to figure out. Niners 3rd down defense best in NFL, that’s pretty cool. Russ 14 giveaways last 10 games. Ok, there’s another trend. But San Fran 2-6 ATS of late and 2-6 SU. They’re also 1-6 ATS at home. Seattle 15-4 ATS against SF and 12-2 SU. Also, 5-1 SU of late. But here’s the problem, motivation. Seattle may pull everyone if and when GB beats the Bears for the #1 seed. And we know that Seattle d is soft, except when Jared Goff and the Rams can’t score from the 1 as well as Goff throwing a pick in the red zone. Kittle is back for the Niners and Beathard played well enough to beat the Cardinals. Teasing this baby up

Niners +13

Saints 5-9 in week 17s. All Saints RBS are out due to contact with Kamara. They must have been playing 2 minutes in the closet with each other, me-OW! Ty Johnson will be getting the start but that’s not going to get anyone’s clit hard. Saints 1-5 ATS against Carolina. Carolina 4-1 ATS of late and they’re playing hard for Matt Rhule. The Saints will be scoreboard watching and if GB gets up early and by a lot, those starters are coming right out. Nonetheless, I think the Panthers keep it close but let’s get that second leg of the teaser with

Teased to Car +11.5

Want an easy way to burn 30 minutes on Instagram. Just tap the search icon, that’s it. Hundreds of Vegas 9’s and above just waiting for you to click on their profile and eventually Only Fans page. And the Packers are looking as sexy as the NFC conference champion. Packers 9-1 SU in Chicago, 15-5 ATS against Chicago. Packers 18-7 ATS against Bears including last 3 covered. Bears have injuries in the secondary. 3.5 is a weird number and the Bears HATE the Packers. Plus, could the Bears backdoor this? Idk that but what I do know is the GB defense MAY get backdoored and especially if they go up early. So I’m going to do something I’ve yelled at others a million times for, a parlay. Gonna do GB money line parlay so I don’t have to worry about the 3.5, just win, baby.

KC Chiefs have a first round bye sewn up like Mitch McConnell’s turkey chin should be. He looks like a sad turtle and in the beginning stages of transitioning. Anyway, teams that have won home field throughout are 9-23 ATS in week 17. Chargers have covered 3 straight, Chiefs haven’t covered in 7. And by either magic, illusion, or blackmail, the Chargers players and ownership love Anthony Lynn. He’ll be playing for his job as well. But the Chargers can Charger themselves getting backdoored so here’s the other end of my money line parlay.

Philly 8-4 ATS as home dog. Wash 6-26 when Smith doesn’t play. 10-5 ATS when Smith plays. Philly 2-5 ATS of late, 1-6 SU. But 4-1 ATS at home. Skins 5-1 ATS of late but 2-5 ATS against Philly. This could be the end of Doug Peterson so I think Philly comes flying (sigh, fuck that song and the dummies who sing it) and plays hard. You also have Alex Smith probably out there for the Skins and he’s banged up. I think the Eagles keep it close and spoil the Skins, thus possibly helping out the Giants. But let’s give your ulcer and anus a LITTLE buffer and make Philly a double digit or near double digit dog. As much as I hate Philly, I want the Giants to get to the playoffs and I think if the Eagles lose, it won’t be in a blowout fashion as McLaurin is also questionable for Wash.

I did a 6.5 teaser and got Philly to 10

Dallas allows 5 yards a carry in awful weather. Under 6/6 for Giants, 4/5 at home. Giants don’t score points and they won’t be in the rain and cold tomorrow.

Second leg of the teaser is Giants under to 51

NFL picks Week 1

I love the summer, absolutely adore it.  Nothing more sad than seeing that first leaf change to a bright yellow.  Having that first chilling evening or morning.  Seeing the sun set by 8pm.  A shitty stream of films in the theater.  But, there’s just one redeeming thing about the fall.  Football is back.  Which means I go back to Vegas for the week 1 games and as you’re reading this, I’m there now.  And I’m probably drunk, like 85% of the time.  I have a couple of gigs when I’m out there, at the Sapphire club and Southpointe Casino so if you’re in town, come check out my bits.  

But before I get into them, I’d be remiss if I didn’t promote that my brainchild, “Comics Watching Comics,” is now up on Amazon Video!  Go binge Season 1 and tell me what you think!  Also, Comics Watching Comics T shirts are available for $20 which includes shipping.  Contact me on how to get your S-XL shirt

Here are the picks for week 1:

I’m writing this article as the Chiefs/Pats game is going on.  I just can’t see how the Pats are going to open the season, at home, raising the Super Bowl banner (great job of choking, you piece of shit Falcons.  Although I did hit the over, thank you!) and NOT cover the spread.  Pats are 8/8 ATS extending from last year and KC is 2-4 ATS in NE.  They blew an EARLY chance to go up at LEAST 10-0 and even 14-0 but a bad play call from Bellichek on 4th and 1 squashed that notion.  But the Chiefs just took a big dump on the Pats and winning outright.  So I just lost:

The Patriots -9

The Eagles went out and spent big money to have arguably the second best trio of WRs in the NFL.  See NY Giants trio, #1.  You know what they didn’t spend money on?  Defense.  And charm school for their fans.  That accent and their manners would make Mr. Belvedere turn beet red.  You know who else went out and spent a lot of money on a top WR?  Washington with Terelle Pryor.  And for now, they have a healthy Jordan Reed and very solid Jameson Crowder.  You know what they didn’t spend money on?  Defense.  Washington has a good running game to compliment their aerial attack.  This game is going to be a scoring bonanza.  Washington hit the over at home 8/10.  When both teams played each other in the last 3, 3 times they hit the over.  Good enough for me

Philly over 48

I believe in sports karma, especially when there’s a natural disaster.  Bet the farm on a team who the nation rallies for, especially when they’re home.  And when said team is playing against Blake Bortles, well even Blake Bortle’s parents won’t be able to convince me that their little boy is going to go in Houston and bust that spread.  Here is a nice stat going back to last year: Houston is 8-2-1 against division opponents.  Did I mention it’s Blake Bortles on the road?  Thought so.

Lock of the week is Hou -5.5

Cincinnati has a solid defense.  Joe Flacco was banged up all preseason and has a handful of practices under his belt.  Their defense is putrid.  Cincy has a nice stable of RBs and of course, AJ Green.  This is more of an anti-Ravens pick.  Bengals are 7-2-1 in Sept and fun fact, Cincy has hit the under in their last 4 in a row.  Ravens also hit the under 4/5 in their division.  

Cincy -3 and maybe under 42 as a bonus

I already locked in my Giants the second Elliot was suspended because I was afraid the line would drop.  Would you believe that son of a bitch is going to play week 1 and the line actually dropped?  Odell Beckham Jr is still a game time decision.  I think the Giants D is too much for them yet again.  They stopped Elliot and Dez cold in their tracks the last 2 times they played and if they were to lose, I don’t think they’re going to lose by more than 3.  And history backs that up as the Giants are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5.  Good thing I locked in at 3.5

Giants +3.5

Tennessee is everyone’s early darling and I’m all in on Mariota and Murray in 2 leagues.  Oakland could’ve made a deep run but Carr snapped his leg late last season.  I like Tennessee but the numbers for Oakland on the road back them up more.  But you know what I like in this game?  Points.  Neither defense sends shivers up my butthole.  Raiders 8/11 with the over.

Raiders over 50

The daytime Emmy awards should also cover sports.  Because whoever are the announcers are for the Rams/Colts game will put on the best performance of the year when you hear, “RAMS…COLTS! NEXT ON FOX!”  Andrew Luck is out.  Frank Gore is as old as Woody Allan.  Their defense is gonna get washed over like a Puerto Rico during Hurricane Irma.  But not this Sunday because new coach or not, the Rams aren’t doing much.  And we know the Colts don’t have much going on.  So this is an easy one.

Rams under 42

Lastly, I just think Phil Rivers and the San Diego, whoops.  Los Angeles…SUPER CHARGERS.  Does’t have that same ring, does it?  Well blame yourselves, San Diego fans.  I get it, the weather is great.  The women are hot.  So much to do.  But shit, it’s only 8 home games a year to support your team.  Let’s look at some numbers: SD 10-4 ATS on the road.  Broncos are 3-8-1 home against SD.  And oh yeah, Trevor Simian is the Den QB. And if he goes down, who’s up next?  Brock Osweiller who’s making a kajillion dollars to sit the bench.  The last time I saw a heist that big, Henry Hill was listening to 1010 WINS in the shower, having a laugh.  

Gimme the Chargers +3.5

I kinda like Pitt -8, the Vikings and the under 48 as well on sunday night but don’t know if I’m going to bet them.  Just some food for thought.

 

 

NFL Week 6 picks ATS

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5-4-1 last week kids which makes it 2 weeks in a row of being a winner.  Let’s see if we can build on 2 winning weeks:

As the old saying goes, you learn by getting burned.  I learned to NEVER go against Bellichek at home, even when he’s trotting out a 3rd string QB.  Pats are fresh off of a Tom Brady-led thrashing of Cleveland.  Now he’s back home against the Bengals who are fresh off of getting demolished in Dallas.  The Bengals haven’t shown me shit except for they can beat Miami.  Whoopty-fucking-do, so can me and 10 other comedian friends of mine.  Brady’s first home game after deflate gate and if you don’t think that crowd won’t be bloodthirsty like the ones of the Roman Colliseum, you must be wondering how the Massholes got their name.  Tyler Eiffert out for Cincy and Edelman as well as Blount are questionable but I would expect they’re going.  The line is now NE -7.5 and the Pats are 30-10 ATS while at home when the line is <10.  Cincy defense hasn’t been as special as it was in years past and did I mention Tom Brady is still in “Fuck You” mode?

I’m taking the Pats -7.5

Saints are back from the bye and in marches in a wounded Panthers team.  Saints D is worse than white dogshit and the Panthers D ain’t what it was a year ago.  Fun fact: Carolina is 11-4 ATS in NO which makes me take pause.  The line is hovering around 2.5 and if it were to get to 3.5, I may be inclined to take the Saints.  But rule #1 of gambling is don’t be a hero, just win money.  And I think the over of 53.5 is certainly attainable.  

I’m taking Saints over 53

The Browns are bad.  But when you break it down, they’ve lost in double digits to 2 decent teams and nearly beat 2 average teams.  And we all had Miami as the suicide pick with our collective assholes puckered when the Browns lost in OT. The Titans are by no means good.  Browns have a few guys who are questionable but this line is wayyyy high.  I’m talking Snoop Dogg on 4/20 at 4:20 high.  You want evidence?  Fine, Tennessee has covered in FOUR of their last 23 home games.  Now, if you can lock it in now at +7 or above, do it!  It may drop closer to game time.  A lot of people are putting Tennessee as their suicide pick and I didn’t because this screams trap game.  And do you want to put your faith in the Titans?  Not me.  I should say that I’m not loading up on this game and nor should you.

I’m taking the Browns +7

Death, taxes, and Andy Reid off the bye.  Reid is 19-3 SU and 16-6 ATS after the week off and he goes into the Black Hole where the Raiders have been hot.  Raiders D is cold diarrhea but that offense is delightful.  The lines range from 1.5-2.5 and you better believe the Chiefs are playing ball control.  No way then can match scores with Oakland.  But everyone rested up for the Chiefs and they can win by a FG.  The cholos in Oakland go home disappointed as KC pulls out a road win.

I’m taking KC +2

The statement game of the week: Are the Falcons as good as people are starting to think?  I think they’re good but this is the ultimate test.  Russell Wilson destroyed the Jets secondary with a gimpy leg and now he’s had a bye to rest up.  Let’s also add that the Hawks are home.  Now, the Falcons went into Denver and just manhandled that vaunted Denver D.  But I think Sea off the bye and home is too much for the Falcons.  The line is a manageable -6 and let’s remember we’re a short memory away from Matt Ryan throwing picks like Slash at the end of a concert.  Take a moment, you’ll get that joke.

I’m taking Sea -6

If you took Andrew Luck in fantasy, that sucks to be you.  He’s been sacked 20 times already in 5 games.  Lamar Miller HAS to break out sometime and no better time than against an awful Indy D who’s allowing a robust 29.6 a game.  Indy D gives it up more than a teenage runaway in a bus stop bathroom.  2 more fun facts: Indy is 0-3 ATS on the road this year.  Hou is 3-0 ATS when at home.  

I’m taking Hou -3

 

Fantasy football talk/draft #1 recap

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As I’ve said before, this summer for films BLOW.  I’ll wait for Sausage Party, Suicide Squad, and Jason Bourne to hit video or stream online.  Same for Hands of Stone or Don’t Breathe.  I’m so glad Ben Hur failed miserably as Hollywood MUST be getting the memo that we’re SICK of rebooting good films.  So let’s talk Fantasy Football which we’re right in the midst of draft time.

I do 3 drafts a year and all my friends know, I draft best available player.  I’m also a fan of value, nothing better than getting a solid player later than a round or 2 later than he was expected to go.  So I’ll share with you my teams and we can cheer/mock my picks:

League 1.  Team Name: Hope Solo’s Goop Chute.  If you don’t get that reference, google Hope Solo naked selfies.  And make sure you aren’t eating at that time.

I had the 3rd pick overall and went with my boy OBJ.  He’s gonna crush it as the Giants have the best schedule against poorly ranked CBs.

2nd rd: Mark Ingram.  He’s the Saints guy now and Drew Brees can’t throw 80 times a game.

3rd rd: Amari Cooper.  Oak as the 2nd best schedule against poorly ranked CBs.

4th rd: Denarius Thomas. Don’t care they don’t have a QB, whomever is at the helm will do their damnedest to get him the ball.  And he’s my THIRD WR.  Wow…

5th rd: Dion Lewis.  Drafted him 6 hours before the news came down he’s going to be out 10 weeks…oops

6th rd: Donte Moncrief.  TY Hilton is not Reggie Wayne nor Marvin Harrison.  Nice 4th WR/Flex

7th rd: Frank Gore. Yes, a bit of a gamble as he’s 34.  But he’s VERY durable and he’s my number 2 back.  If he gets me 7 TDs on the season, mission accomplished.

8th rd: Tom Brady.  Goddamnit, I hate the Patriots.  But he’s going to be in full, “Fuck you” Or “Bobby Bowden mid-late 90’s Florida State running up the score” Mode.  I’m getting great value for him here.  I’m missing 4 games (5 with the bye) with Brady so all I have to do is get to week 4 at least 2-2 and I’ll be good to go.

9th rd: Danny Woodhead.  Did you you see Melvin Gordon last year?  I did because I had that shitsipper.  Here’s me snaking the guy who took Melvin Gordon

10th rd: Willie Snead.  If you missed it, Drew Brees throws…a lot.  I know he spreads it around but he’s my 5th WR and he can easily get 6 TDs this year.  The problem will be he’ll get 3 of them in 1 week while he’s on my bench.

11th rd: Travis Benjamin: Phillip Rivers doesn’t win Superbowls but he sure throws it a lot. It’s nice to have a #2 WR on a team that airs it out…

12th rd: Sammie Coates: Crushing it in training camp and will boot Markus Wheaton out of the #2 WR role.

13th Rd: Bilal Powell.  Matt Forte is old and banged up.  Not saying Powell is the answer but he sure is a nice bye week fill-in.

14th rd: Devontae Booker.  Love this pick as CJ Anderson BLOWS.  Ronnie Hillman took away a ton of his carries and Booker has almost usurped Hillman on the depth chart.

15th rd: RG3. Go ahead and laugh.  But I’m not and here’s why.  Like I said, I need him for the first 4 weeks and a bye week.  Here’s Griffin’s first 4 games: @Philly (garbage defense),  Home Baltimore (not a great D), @Miami (garbage defense), and @washington (Garbage defense and let’s not forget the “revenge against the team who cut them” factor.

16th rd: Dwayne Allen.  The rule of thumb when drafting a TE is if you don’t get a top tiered one like Gronk, Olsen, Reed, or Kelce…you wait.  And wait I did.  No Coby Fleener so no more sharing catches.

17th rd: Lions D.  My last 2 picks will ALWAYS be kicker and defense…except last night where I clicked the wrong guy and drafted a kicker in the 3rd to last rd.

18th rd: Mike Nugent.

And there you have it so comment away on my draft.  I think my only notable weakness it my number 2 RB but then again, not many people have 2 solid RBs.  I do have 3 NASTY WRs and a solid bench.  You can make the case that until I get Brady back, QB is weak too.  I’ll buy that…I’LL BUY THAT.  But I think RG3 answers all the naysayers and is at LEAST competitive.  If not, start looking for a string of RG3 car washes in the Cleveland/DC Metro/Baylor areas….