Week 14 NFL picks ATS 12/12/20

If you couldn’t tell, I’m PSYCHED to see Gutting the Sacred Cow is now #15 on iTunes film review!!! WOW

I guess the pic of Ben Affleck palming J-Lo’s ass was the lucky charm I needed! An OUSTANDING 5-1-1 last week. The only loss was can you believe the fucking Steelers couldn’t win outright at home against the Skins? Teased that down to -1 but man, what a kick to the balls. Can’t complain when you on the other hand, have Oakland throw up a bomb to get the backdoor cover to push on another teaser. And the Giants under, Rams and Browns… barely broke a sweat in those games. I took the Rams und-AH on Thursday night as well, pushing the yearly total to 44-34-3 (56%) for the year. Back on track to help pay for those Christmas or whatever you celebrate presents.

Cardinals have been REALLY bad of late and that’s because for whatever the reason, Kyler Murray isn’t running. Rams kept him contained last week and that shoulder must be a bit balky. Now they fly east for a 1pm game against my NY Giants who FLOORED myself and the world by beating Seattle in Seattle with a backup QB. Daniel Jones was a full participant at practice Friday so I assume he’s a go. More stats for you: Cardinals 1-6 ATS of late and yet again, that 1 win was the hail mary to beat Buffalo. Historical numbers point to AZ as they’re 6-1 in NY and they’re 4-1 SU and ATS but that goes back how many QBs ago? And Giants are 5-1 ATS of late, the 1 ATS loss was the Bengals. They COVER as dogs and they’re 4-1 SU of late. Giants d has 20 points or fewer in 4 straight games (all wins), 3rd in takeaways, 8th in sacks, 10th in overall defense. There are a lot of games that need teasing this week so I had to partner this up with someone. I jumped on when it was 3, it’s now 2. JUST to be on the safe side but I do like them straight up, MAYBE even on the money line.

Giants +9 for teaser leg number 1.

What else can I tease besides all you people who think A Christmas Story is a good movie? It’s fucking terrible and this week on Gutting the Sacred Cow Podcast; I depants it, run it through a shredder, and pour it into a bathtub filled with lye. Let’s pick on the Eagles (yet again) starting a rookie QB. They’re not scoring points with Hurts making his NFL debut and of late, they’ve been awful. 6/6 have gone under, 4/5 vs NO, 11/13 at home. Saints have went under 5/5 of late and 4/5 against NFC.

Saints under 49.5 leg number 2

Two teams that have garbage defenses. Two teams that have excel in garbage time scoring. Utah, gimme 2! I couldn’t think of something else to start with 2 so you get one of the best movie quotes of all time. But let’s look at some no brainers stats. Titans 5/6 over of late, 5/6 on the road. 9-2-1 over out of 11, 18-3-1 over out of 22. Titans have 4 games they scored 35 or more in. Facing a Jags defense that is a Phantom Menace level of awful: dead last in total yards allowed and passing yards allowed, 2nd to last in rushing yards allowed. Jags 29th in points allowed. Jags over 7/10 against Tenn and 10/14 vs AFC. Say no more.

Titans over 52.5

The Colts are facing the Raiders this week who A) are missing key players on defense and B) already have the 29th ranked defense for sacks as 28th in scoring defense. And the Colts defense hasn’t been as lights out as it was earlier on: 17, 31, 45, and 20 points allowed. Colts have gone over 6/8 and 4/5 in Vegas/Oakland, 7/10 against AFC. Vegas over 9/12 and 4/5 at home. Josh Jacobs is questionable and Devonta Booker did whogatz against the goddamn Jets defense. They’ll have to air it out and I’m spot starting Rivers tomorrow in fantasy playoffs. 51.5 is the current number but I said let’s have less to sweat out.

1st leg of a teaser Colts over 45.5

Anthony Lynn and Donald Trump will be holding hands along with Adam Gase in the unemployment line sooner than later. But 1 thing you can bank on; after getting your doors blown off, NFL teams USUALLY respond with a resounding effort. And yours truly told you to take the Pats last week in a cakewalk 45-0 blowout. Enter the Atlanta Falcons. 30th in QB rushing yards allowed, 30th in passing yards, and 32nd to QB rushing TDs. Oh yeah, no Julio Jones either. Now, numbers do favor ATL: 7-2 ATS on the road, 6-0 SU in LAC. Chargers 0-6 ATS of late; 1-4 ATS and 1-5 SU at home. Now I know Anthony Lynn can fuck up a cup of coffee but the Chargers HAVE to answer back, especially Herbert against a defense that’s worse than Police Academy: Mission to Moscow. Yes, they made it. Yes, it’s terrible and I bailed after 15 minutes. Like I said, Anthony Lynn is like the dealer DeNiro fired for incompetence in Casino. But if they don’t answer the bell after that gang rape last week, they might as well fire him Monday. But let’s REALLY help our cause out and…

2nd leg of the teaser: Chargers to +7.5

The new car smell that came when the Detroit Lions fired Patricia is over. Aaron Rodgers comes in and boy, he’s dealing this year. Everyone who gambled on him in fantasy looks like a genius. GB 8-4 ATS and 4-1 SU of late. I know GB has had troubles in Detroit, 1-6 ATS, but probably no Golladay and Swift again. Detroit 2-4 ATS and 5-15 SU of late. I’m seeing GB between laying between 8-9 points but I got lucky and jumped on when it was 7.5. But juuuuuust in case Detroit may keep it close and try to backdoor…

1st leg of teaser: GB -1.5 And if I were you, I’d tease it to -2.5 if possible; even lay the extra vig for a 7 pt teaser.

Well, I said it before and I’ll say it again. Nothing makes me happier than betting against the Philadelphia Eagles and winning money. Did it last week and now they finally sit Carson Wentz (from MVP to 25 million dollar albatross, HAHAHAHA!) and bring in Jalen Hurts. And what a time to do so; against the TOP RANKED DEFENSE IN THE NFL? Doug Pederson, if anything, is a goddamn masochist. Saints 5-0 ATS, 9-0 SU of late. Tell me more about Philly besides a town of people that made up a word, jawn, that’s more retarded than their chants. First time I heard that, I thought they were making a Suzyn Waldman reference. Deeper cut, go google it. NO is 4-2 ATS, 5-1 SU in Philly, and 5-0 SU on the road. Philly 4-9 ATS of late and now with a rookie QB facing #1 defense in the last month, 3rd in sacks, 44 points allowed in the last 5 games, and the Saints have allowed TWO touchdowns in FIVE games. Oh yeah, they also had the #2 offense in the last month. Since we need to pair the GB game with someone, let’s make it even easier than those crawdaddy tourist muggers.

2nd leg of teaser, Saints -.5 And I also took the Eagles team total under 18 points for all of the reasons above.

Here’s one that may make you cock your head (you perverts) and say, really? I could be a little off base but the numbers will back this play. We all love the Chiefs since last year but if you’re not teasing them or taking them on the money line, you’ve lost A LOT of money on them of late. They’re 1-4 ATS but 7-0 SU of late as well as 8-0 SU on the road. Lastly, they haven’t won a game by more than SIX points in their last 4 games. Now they go to Miami who has been playing rock solid defense. Miami is an NFL best 9-3 ATS, 7-1 ATS of late as well as SU. Miami is also 7-2 SU home against KC, WOW! Miami has scored 20 or fewer in their last 3 but that leaky KC defense doesn’t scare anyone. Hell, Denver covered playing the Chiefs last week. I think Miami keeps this close but I’m always afraid of the Chiefs exploding. So maestro, a little extra cushion if you would?

First leg of the teaser Miami +13

And because I love the Saints this week more than my wife (Just kidding honey, these are just jokes that will pay for Christmas presents), I’m pairing the Saints again as part of a teaser.

Second leg of the teaser Saints -.5

And now, the premier matchup of the week. Pittsburgh has looked sloppy the last 2 games and losing to Washington, wow. They’re also down 2 LBs, have injuries on the o-line. This line JUMPED from Pitt -1.5 to Buffalo -1.5 as the sharps pounded this early. Is it recency bias because of the way the Bills grabbed the Niners like a bowling ball and then tossed them out like a parking ticket in a foreign country? Maybe. Steelers are 7-3 ATS of late but they haven’t had a “bye” since week 5. Let’s add this is the Steelers 3rd game in 12 days and they might be on fumes at this point. Buffalo fresh off a bye and 4-1 ATS, 5-1 SU and 5-1 SU at home. Look, I get why you would want to back Pitt, especially since they’re 17-5 ATS off a loss and against a winning team. But my gut says Pitt may be sluggish and the Bills are fired up. The number is sure right to take them…

Bills -1.5

Week 16 NFL picks ATS

Hope you’re ready to enjoy Christmas and hope you paid for those gifts with FREEEE MONEY!  When you’re hot, you’re hot.  4-3 last week as I took TB under this past monday night to push me over .500 for the week.  Guys, I haven’t had a losing week in 7 weeks.  Just saying.  We’re getting to the fantasy championship/players getting rested/ time of year so the number of plays will get smaller and by next week, it’s going to be only a slight few.  But I have a few in mind so here we go:

The wife beater currently known as Ezekiel Elliot is back for the Cowgirls and Dallas is holding onto a microcosm of hope to make the playoffs.  In comes the rape victim from week 15 known as the Seattle Seahawks.  And who had the Rams as the pick of the week last week?  YOU’RE WELCOME.  Jesus, I put out more than your moms.  2 weeks, 2 mom jokes.  How much confidence do you have in Seattle?  The correct answer is very little.  Usually, the Seahawks destroy in the month of December but it looks like the Legion of Boom went bust.  That defense has been beaten up more than Jim J Bullock’s asshole.  Wow, what a deep cut.  Pulling out an F list celebrity from the 80’s in this column, check.  Dallas is 7-2 ATS vs Sea and 5-2 ATS vs Seattle.  More stats? Sure.  Seattle is 2-5-1 of late and 3-7-1 on the road.  Not very awe inspiring.  And now, a Montell Jordan reference for you. “The party’s hype and the number’s right. Drinking 40’s here on the west side.”

Take Dallas -5 cause this is how we do it.

The Buffalo Bills are smack in the middle of the playoffs, despite the Nathan Peterman experiment.  Doesn’t that sound like the name of a shitty emo band?  I know, ALL EMO IS SHITTY, KEVIN.  The Bills go into Foxboro where the Pats really haven’t felt like the PATS this year.  They got insanely lucky (including me having under 54 last week) with that win.  The Bills NEED this game and the Pats haven’t blown anyone out in awhile (3 weeks). The Bills A) got beat by 20 and will most definitely B) use this as a revenge game for the Gronkowski cheap shot.  11.5 is just too many damn points so take the team who needs the game pretty bad.  And oh yeah, more fun facts.  The Bills hit the under 5/7 on the road, 4/6 under in NE.  And the Pats of late are also not putting up points as the under has hit 4/5.  Hogan is doubtful and Burkhead is out.  And oh yeah, Bellichik is 47% ATS when laying double digits.

So let’s double down and take the Bills +11.5 and the under 47.

Pittsburgh lost a potential dream crusher last week.  Pittsburgh sucks mastodon scrotum on the road.  Pittsburgh of late is 1-5 ATS.  I know, Houston isn’t much better, 2-5 ATS of late.  But 9 is too many and Pittsburgh plays to the level of their opponent.  And oh yeah, the best WR in football is out for the game.  If you don’t know who that is or disagree with me, you shouldn’t be reading this column.

Take the Texans +9 and cross your fingers.

The Saints fucked me not once but twice.  Not nice for a team named after a celestial figure.  The Saints couldn’t cover and bury Bryce Petty?  And then Mark Ingram, in clock killing mode, breaks off a long touchdown to burn me on the under.  Shame on me for laying 16.5.  The Saints lost to the Falcons 3 weeks ago (another one that I called.  Time for me to get my own show, goddamnit!) and I think they have revenge on their mind.  The Saints also want to get that division sewn up because they know KG has them 6/1 to win the NFC so let’s not monkey around.  Saints have 9 wins by 10 points or more.  Atlanta in a short week BARELY beat the Bucs on (had the under so yep, taking a bow again.)  Falcons D has given up 7 TDs in the last 3 weeks and only one pick.  Matt Ryan also not doing that much this year.  

The Saints come marching in all over the Falcons, -5. 

Tampa Bay almost tied it up with a 56 yd FG attempt on monday night.  Thank god that kick fell like an Italian man, a foot or 2 short.  Cause my under would have been cooked.  Here’s a fun fact: Tampa is 13-4 as an over when they’re a double digit underdog.  TB has a TON of injuries on defense and even if they were healthy, they weren’t that got.  But TB has hit 7/8 unders on the road.  Carolina has hit the over 5/5.  Panthers also 5/6 over at home.  I like Carolina to win and if it can get to under 10, I’ll jump on it.  But for now, it’s just going to be…

Carolina over 46.5

Not a full lock but I’m highly convinced about this game.  One garbage fan base flies across country to visit the biggest garbage fan base.  Raiders in Philly and Philly looking for that 1 seed.  Foles crushed it in his season debut and he better crush it against the Black and Silver because I have him in my fantasy championship.  BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE!  I don’t see the Raiders giving 2 shits about this game after they lost the way they did.  They’re flying cross country and playing Christmas night?  The Eagles may roll early and then sit Foles.  But I don’t see the Raiders showing up so let’s end this Christmas night with.

Philly under 47

 

Week 15 NFL Picks ATS

5-2 last week, ohhhh baby.  Looks like my daughter gets more than a Hess truck for Christmas.  Just kidding, we make a real living.  And I’ll heavily wager that if you got a Hess truck for Christmas, you had a divorced dad who forgot to buy a Christmas present for you and had to call an audible at a gas station.  So the money came pouring in last week and for the year, I’m 61%.  SIXTY ONE PERCENT, THAT’S FUCKING INSANE.  AND YOU SHOULD BE TIPPING ME OUT FOR THESE GENIUS PICKS!  Feel free to do so at PayPal: Kgootee@hotmail.com

And if you were curious about the new Star Wars film, check out my review here: Star Wars The Last Jedi Review (No spoilers)

I like the Saturday night game, here’s why: KC under hits 13/18 at home.  KC also under has hit in 4/5 as well as when KC plays LAC, the under has hit 5/7.  And LA has hit the under 4/5 on the road and 7/8 games.  

Took KC under 47

You know who’s bad?  The NY Jets on the road.  They got ram-rodded (probably a top 5 gay bar name) by the anemic Denver Broncos.  Yes, Josh McCown got knocked out of the game.  And who came in, Bryce Petty.  I’d rather have Lori Petty or the corpses of Tom and Richard Petty.  You know who’s good?  The Saints.  You know who’s REALLY good?  The Saints after a loss.  Let’s also add that the Saints have had 10 days to prep for this game after yours truly picked Atlanta to cover against them last Thursday.  No Wilkinson for the Jets as he’s truly a piece of shit and probably won’t play a game for the rest of the year.  Jets are 0-5 in road games facing a team with a winning home record.  Jets are 1-5-1 of late.  Saints are 6-2 vs the Jets and 5-1 ATS as home favorites of 10.5 or more.  This line is 16.5 and I don’t give 2 flying fucks.  The Jets will be lucky to score 10 points but that won’t matter because the Saints are scoring at least 35. And here’s why you should take the under as well.  Jets are 6/8 on the road as the under.  Saints vs Jets has the under hit the last 4/6.  

Take the Saints -16.5 and the under 47

Baltimore Ravens are 7/9 with the over and 5/6 on the road.  Cleveland is recently 4/6 with the over.  No Jimmy Smith for Bal so this is a quick and easy pick.

Take the Ravens over 42.5

I may be too in love with this team but I think the co-lock of the week besides the Saints is the Rams.  After a tough loss, they get Robert Woods back and head into Seattle where the defense is more gored than a tourist who ran with the bulls in Pamplona.  The Rams are 6-2 and 4-1 on the road ATS.  They just lost a tough one to the Eagles.  Seattle of late is 2-4-1 and I see the Rams taking control of the division with a win today.

Take the Rams +1.5

You might be asking me about the game of the day which is the shitbag Pats (And I told you that the Dolphins were covering that game but they go and shock everyone by winning outright, go figure) vs the Steelers.  The Steelers fucked me last week by blowing a 2 TD lead and not covering.  The numbers SCREAM Patriots, ESPECIALLY after a loss.  But for some reason, I think the analysts got into my head and here’s a stat for you.  Ben is 6-1 ATS as a home dog.  But here are some other numbers to consider: Pats are 7/9 with the under and 5/6 on the road with the under.  But when the 2 teams play, they go over 9/13 and 5/7 of late. So I think I MAY take…

The Steelers under 54.  This number is climbing and I think the under is the better play but haven’t locked it in.  This depends on how I do at 1pm.

 

 

Star Wars The Last Jedi Review (No spoilers)

starwars

Well kids, it’s Christmas time for us all…unless you’re Jewish.  The new Star Wars film is here which is something EVERYONE can celebrate.  The reviews have been overwhelmingly positive.  What do I think?  Glad you asked your favorite film snob cause I have many thoughts.  And before we get started, here’s my rankings of the films so you know my preferences:

4, 6, 5, Rogue One, 3, 7, 2, ——————1.  That’s how bad Phantom Menace is, lower than Batman V Superman or Suicide Squad.  Hell, I’ll put the punching bag known as the Star Wars Christmas above PM.

We start TLJ off in a dark time, the Resistance is getting decimated by the First Order (a La Empire Strikes back but don’t worry, this film isn’t an Empire reboot as Ep 7 was like Ep 4).  Rey is about to meet Skywalker and learn about the path of a Jedi.  And of course, cry baby Kylo Ren is back being tormented by Supreme Leader Snoke how he’s not much of a man with that mask.  Ren then destroys the mask and then destroying my wishes that he’d keep the mask on so we don’t have to look at his stupid face.  And they say bullying is bad, bullying gets shit done…to a degree.  Good news in this installment, not many emo temper tantrums out of Ren!

The Resistance, led by Princess Leia (yes, you’ll spend most of the time guessing if and where she gets killed off to coincide with Carrie Fisher’s death) needs a codebreaker to crack the code of being able to track a ship through hyperspace.  Speaking of Carrie Fisher, they must have paid her for the Force Awakens in gallons of gin and Virginia Slims.  Her voice sounds huskier than mine.  Folks, it’s been a LONNGGGG time since she wore that metal bikini.  But I did enjoy her having a larger role here than she did in Episode 7.  Anyway, the ships’ shields can only hold up for so long as Finn and new character Jane escape to find said codebreaker.  I’ll tell you now that you’ll find Jane ALMOST as annoying as Jar Jar Binks.  Not a fan.  She is going down in the Star Wars annals as one of the most unlikeable characters, I’ll guarantee it.  And there’s a whole 15-20 minutes with Finn and her that on their search for the codebreaker that could’ve been cut.  Meanwhile, Rey attempts to learn why Skywalker became a hermit and no longer a teacher of the Jedi.  We also learn more why Kylo Ren made the choice to commit to the dark side and I found it to be a nice twist.  

Chewbacca doesn’t get much screen time in this one and you’ll find yourself saying, “Where the hell is Chewie?”  There’s also very little from R2 and some of 3PO.  BB-8 does get a solid haul of screen time and he’s enjoyable as usual.   BUT, you also get a couple of cameos, including one great surprise that will easily put a smile on your face.

I will say that this film is a lot funnier than most BUT after the halfway point, I felt that the jokes were becoming a bit overkill.  I don’t need comedic lines like Caddyshack in a Star Wars film.  I just want good story and good action.  By all means, sprinkle a few throughout the film.  But this has a LOT more; maybe more than all of the films combined.  So that was a bit off-putting.  

Let’s also talk about Daisy Ridley playing Rey.  She’s fantastic and for everyone trying to shove female heroes down our throats for the sake of, take note of this.  You know why this works?  Cause it’s natural.  You BELIEVE that this girl can be a Jedi knight and enjoy her journey.  But when Hollywood forces all female reboots or DEMANDS we have more female superheroes just to check a box, people seize up.  When you feel like you’re trying to be sold something, you freeze up and reject it, right?  Well Rey doesn’t do go that route, bravo!

The action scenes are great.  Dogfight scenes are rock solid and the lightsaber battles?  Top notch, top notch!  

Without delving too deeply into the story, a lot of shit goes down in this film that you would’ve expected to happen in the final film.  TLJ will definitely throw you a few unexpected curveballs, some pleasant and even an, “Ahhh shit” moment.  A lot of people were worried that this would be too much like Empire and there are a couple of moments that there are similarities but overall, it’s quite independent of Ep 5.  

This film does drag a BIT; as I said above, there’s easily 15-20 minutes that can be cut.  And you’ll wonder during the final battle why it’s going on so long but it does pay off nicely.  

And now, the verdict.  I really liked this film and I think it’s better than Force Awakens.  Why?  Because it wasn’t a “greatest hits” like Ep 7 was.  It’s dark.  And they do answer some questions but you’ll wish they expounded on more of the story.  The stage was set relatively well and I’m hoping they just close the loops nicely with episode 9.  

I give it a 7.5 out of 10 and in the rankings, I put it after Rogue One and before Force Awakens.