Week 7 NFL Picks

The NFL is by far the hardest league to consistently pick winners.  The best handicappers are 55% and your boy is currently 54% for the year.  Who the fuck would’ve thought Denver would’ve lost OUTRIGHT to the Giants?  That screwed a ZILLION people (hand in the air) in their suicide pools.  And who would’ve even contemplated the Falcons would lost OUTRIGHT  to the Dolphins.  At home.  After a bye?  Jesus H Christ, this gets zany.  Oh wait, let’s talk about this past Thursday’s Oak/KC game?  Chiefs laying 3 but the Raiders drive the field late.  Raiders on the 1 and then get called for pass interference, back em up 10 more yards.  Time for just one more play and what happens next is just stupid: Carr throws incomplete but hold on, defensive holding.  Can’t end the game on a defensive penalty so here we go again.  Another incomplete pass but deja vu inserts itself with ANOTHER KC defensive holding penalty.  Carr gets one last shot at redemption and the third time is the charm as he finds Crabtree for the TD.  Point after is good, Oakland wins by 1.  If you had KC (I had the under, that shit was toast by the middle of the 3rd quarter), you developed an ulcer.  If you had the Raiders, you must have been balls deep in a leprechaun while Kate Upton motorboated you at the same time.  And if you plan on motor boating Kate, do it soon as she’s going to hit the wall in about 3-5 years.  She has Anna Nicole Smith part 2 written all over her.

3-3 last week so a push for the week sans the vigs.  As I mentioned, I took the Oak under and lost so it puts me at 0-1 this week.  Let’s right this ship with some winners.

Can you make an argument how the Colts can win or cover 3 against the Jags.  Me neither and that’s why I really like Jacksonville in Indy this week. Fournette hasn’t practiced all week but they’re saying he still may go.  And even if he doesn’t, I’m still confident that D can shut down the Dolts.  Ivory is very capable of gashing that awful defense.  Some numbers to back up my statement, sure.  Jax is 6-3 ATS in their last 9, 5-1 on the road, and 4-1 ATS vs Indy.  Sound good?  I think so too.

I like the Jaguars -3

Deshone Kizer is back behind center.  I think Cleveland has had more quarterbacks in the last 20 years than Jenna Jameson has taken dicks on camera.  Cleveland has put up over 20 ONE time this year.  Tennessee has put up over 20 3/6 times this year.  Cleveland has a pretty good defense.  Can you see this game 24-21?  Best case scenario, which is great because the under is 46.  And let’s end this handicap with one last statement.  Cleveland has gone under at home the last 5/5.  Good enough for me…

To take the under 46

One of the bets I didn’t put in that I should have was taking the Bears getting 6 against the dumpster fire Ravens.  Those same Ravens now travel to Minnesota who admittedly are a bit banged up on WR.  Diggs is out and Michael Floyd left early in last week’s game. But the Vikings have a rock solid D and (Mike Francesa voice), “Let’s be honest, ok?  I’d ratha see the new Madea Halloween movie than trust Joe Flacco on the road, ok?  Here’s da Mink Man, back afta dis.”  Balt 3-7 ATS out of their last 10 and Minn 4-1 ATS at home.  Sometimes the best bets are the ones that require the least amount of thought.

Take the Vikings -5.5

Green Bay plays at home against the Saints who have been lighting it up when it comes to the over, home or away.  GB has also been a lock for the over at home.  But let’s bring up 3 facts:  The Saints have an improved (could it have gotten worse?) defense.  I mean, we’re still used to see a Saints defense getting exposed like a freshman sorority girl, begging for beads on Bourbon Street.  They gave up 38 last week but 2 of which were a pick or ST TD.  The previous week, they held the Panthers to 13.  But 2 weeks before, they shut out Miami (NBD, I get it).  Next which is the obvious, no Aaron Rodgers. And finally, the forecast calls for a good amount of rain leading into game time.  Is Brett Hundley going to put points up?  In the rain?  Against an average defense?  He did throw 3 in Minn last week.  I’m going to monitor this one solely based on the weather and IF the rain does indeed come through, I’m taking.

GB under 47

I like mixing up routines, vacation spots, and when I was single, women.  But now the few constants I love are steak, teams that stick to their trends, and winning free money from said trends.  That being said, let’s investigate another routine which I exploited a couple of weeks ago with the Jags.  The Rams have been to London several times already.  They stayed in Florida this week to prep for their trip across the pond.  They had some great fluky TDs against the Jags last week (one of my winners) and now they’re 3.5 point favorites against the Cardinals.  Cards just blew the doors off of an awful Bucs D and Jameis Winston’s shoulder.  They brought in the smartest (on paper) QB, Fitzpatrick, who is everyone’s favorite guy to bet against and he actually cut the lead down with the help of a pick 6.  But the Bucs lost (one of my losers) so the Cards got off the schneid.  I barely trust Carson Palmer and if you think I trust him when his body clock is 8 hours off schedule, you’re insane.  This game gets ugly, like the Brits’ smiles and food creations.

Take the Rams -3.5

AFC Central matchup this week, Bengals vs Steelers.  Or as I call it, two towns of women that resemble a grilled cheese sandwich with Rosie O Donnell’s face.  Bengals off the bye and the Steelers are home after stealing one in Kansas City with an amazing circus TD catch and run for Antonio Brown.  The line is MUCH too high for a division game, as these games are usually decided by a FG.  The history is against Cincy in Pitt but 5.5 is just too much; especially since the Bengals have gotten their shit together recently offensively as well as always having a decent D.  And I’m also quite inclined to take the under as Cincy/Pitt have been so 7/8 last times in Pitt.  Cincy also has been under 5/6 on the road.  But I’m waiting to see till tomorrow (this article was written on Saturday night) how that line moves.  However, I’ve already locked in…

Cincy +5.5

Here are a few games that I’m debating about taking tomorrow but seeing how the line moves:

Pitt under, SF, Denver, Pats and over, 

 

Fantasy football draft #3 recap

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Last one folks, hope you’ve enjoyed my analyses on my picks and you’ve taken a nugget or 3 for your own drafts.  My final draft occurred on 8/25

Team name: I say NAAAWWWNE, ok?  Back afta dis….

So if you’re not into NY sports talk radio, you won’t know that’s a Mike Francesa reference.  Or you make think that’s a Sour Shoes reference in which it can be but know that he’s goofing on Fatcesa.  TURN MY MIC AWN!

And in this draft, I had pick #1.  I fucking hate pick number 1 unless it’s a year where you have a NO-BRAINER #1 pick.  I’m talking Ladanian  Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk, or Jerry Rice, or Barry Sanders in their prime. Because there are multiple ways to fuck this pick up and you will make yourself sick trying NOT to screw it up.  And you are waiting a LONG time in between picks so you are forced to sometimes to take a player that you wanted to wait on just a little while later but know that there’s no way they’re coming back.  Or there may be a run on RBs or WRs and you feel the pressure to plug a spot.

1st Pick: I doubled down on Antonio Brown again because he’s the closest thing to one of those “no doubt” number ones.

2nd pick: LeSean McCoy: He owes me a season after his last mess with the Eagles.  And as I mentioned above, there was a run on RBs so I felt I had to grab one now or get stuck with a Jeremy Langford/Frank Gore as a number 1 RB.  He should bounce back and no more Karlos Williams to steal carries.  A healthy Tyrod Taylor and Sammy Watkins will make this a pretty nice offense.

3rd pick: Keenan Allen: I could’ve tripled down on Amari Cooper but I’m leery of going in all in with a player in all 3 leagues.  That guy gets injured and ka-plooey!  Even though he’s only my #2 WR, I still didn’t want to gamble.  Besides, Allen and Cooper are 6 and 1/2 dozen.  Allen was CRUSHING it until he got a shot to the kidneys.  He’ll be back with similar or even better numbers.

4th pick: Jarvis Landry: Couldn’t believe my eyes when this beaut fell into my lap.  And there were some questionable picks this round: CJ Anderson (who never lives up to expectations) Eric Decker (too early for him) and Matt Forte (also a little early for an injury risk compounded with a crowded backfield).  This makes it yet again, a SICK WR trio for my teams.  He and OBJ have a bet to see who gets more yds and tds so that will definitely play into my favor…

5th pick: Jordan Reed: Also couldn’t believe my eyes that this guy was available.  Experts had him going late 2nd-early 3rd.  At the beginning of the 5th, I got INSANE value for him.

6th pick: Chris Ivory: You know why he’s on Jax?  Because TJ Yeldon sucked.  You know who’s already starting preseason games? Chris Ivory.  And it’s not going to be 21-0 at the end of the first for Jax anymore, they’ve shored up their defense.  So that means more running and not as much passing for the Pan Handle faithful…

7th pick: Ameer Abdullah: He must get harassed by TSA quite often with a name like that…Rough rookie year, fumbled all over the joint and was left behind.  He’s starting this year again and let’s see if he holds onto the ball.  Experts say 7th round was the right time so I pulled the trigger. Besides, he’s my #3 RB or flex so I’m not married to him by any stretch.

8th pick: Tom Brady: Yet again, the 8th round I get him and yet again, I get value for him.  It’s going to pain me to root for a Patriot but remember: Cash moves everything around me, CREAM! Get the money, dolla dolla bill, y’all.  I was looking to get Sterling Shepard this round but I got snaked 3 picks in front of me by a buddy who is a Giants fan.

9th pick: Torrey Smith: Yes, Colin Kapernick is his QB but shit, he’s the #1 WR on this team.  And he’s my 4th WR, not married to him by any stretch.  And I think Kapernick can’t sink any lower so it’s going to translate nicely for Smith.

10th pick: Devin Funchess: I think I reached just a little bit for him but my 2 picks I had queued up were snaked by the 2 guys drafting in front of me.  I wanted Tajae Sharpe and/or Devontate Booker but like Grandmaster Flash said, “These…are…the breaks!”  I think Funchess can be a nice #2 on that team but not married to this guy either.

11th pick: Bilal Powell: Matt Forte must have Obamacare as his insurance cause he can’t stay healthy.  Bilal Powell is the next man up so….

12th pick: Joe Flacco: I wanted Tyler Boyd but he got snaked 2 picks before me.  And Mariota went 4 before me, another guy in my queue.  My backup QB and I know, he’s inconsistent as they come.  Here are his first 4 games while Brady sits out for me: Home against Buffalo (decent D) @Cleveland (not scaring me one bit) @Jax (They’re better but let me know when they get there) Home against Oak (That D hasn’t been good in 15 years) And during Brady’s bye week, they face the Steelers.  That game is either going to be 9-3 or they’re lighting up the scoreboard.  One week, he’ll throw for 350 and 4 tds.  The following week, he’ll throw for 125 yds and 4 picks.  Just need him for a short time, not the whole year…

13th pick: DeAndre Washington: Does Latavius Murray scare anyone?  (looking around) Nope, didn’t think so.  So I’ll grab the guy that LM’s owner SHOULD’VE grabbed sooner

14th pick: Victor Cruuuuuuuuz.  I had to have at least one Giant and had no problem taking a flier on my guy who salsa’ed his way into everyone’s heart. If he’s healthy and I know, that’s a big IF but he’s practiced all week, that offense will be fucking solid with OBJ, Shepard, and CRUUUUUZ.

15th pick: Mason Crosby:  Fucked up and clicked the wrong guy in this spot.  Broke my own rule!  That cost me Will Fuller…

16th pick: Javorius Allan: Guess who had Justin Forsett last year?  Guess who won’t get fooled again?  NOT THAT I’M BITTER HAVING WASTED A 3RD RD PICK ON HIM.  Well, I’ve learned my lesson.

17th pick: Rams D.  They’re ball hawks despite losing Jenkins to my Giants.  And if they suck, who cares?  It’s a defense and they’re a dime a dozen.  No one with brains wastes a pick above 2nd to last unless it’s the 85 bears, 00 Ravens, or the ’14 Seahawks.