NFL picks week 4 ATS 10/2/21

Still picking splinters out of my b-hole as I took a bat to the backside last weekend, 4-6. How the hell did the Vikings NOT hit the over after there were over 30 points scored at the half!??! Philly ate shit as did the Chiefs so first week under .500. Always tough to keep at a 66% clip but great news, I’m still 58% which definitely keeps you going back to the window to CASH THOSE TICKETS. Ready for freeeeee money? Great! And don’t spend your winnings checking out the new Sopranos movie, hoofa, did that suck.

Why bury the best game on the slate? Rams are home after disappointing the Bucs teased to +7.5 and they’re facing the also undefeated Cardinals. Let’s give some stats and this is going to smack you across the face like a Roman soldier helmet; the real thing or the sexual act. The Rams are 10-2 SU and 5-3 ATS at home. Rams offensive line is morning boner solid, only 3 sacks allowed all year. McVay 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS against the Cards and his AVERAGE cover margin is 14 points. Cards AVERAGE 16.5 ppg against the Rams. How about some Kyler Murray stats? His QB rating against the Rams: 31, 12, 53, and 38. That’s really awful. Speaking of awful, how about that Sopranos film? Christ almighty, what a Cleveland Steamer of a film. But here you have it, undisputed evidence why the Rams are the play. I teased the Rams to a pick em along with the Bengals -1.5 so halfway home! I also teased the Bengals and Rams over to 48.5 as the Rams are 5/5 over at home. I can easily see this being a 31-20 game.

Big spread ml parlay special this week: Bengals, already covered. Bills 11-3 ATS and 10-2 SU of late, Hou 1-7 SU of late. You mean to tell me the Texans stand a cunt hair’s chance in Buffalo? I sure don’t. But I locked this parlay in on Wednesday which was before Julio Jones and AJ Brown were ruled out. The Jets have scored 20 pts IN 3 GAMES ALL SEASON. Yes, the Titans defense is awful but here’s a nugget that doesn’t hurt to poop out: Derrick Henry AVERAGES 146.6 yds in each of last 9 games. Tenn is 2-4 ATS of late but 13-7 SU. Jets 1-8 ATS and SU at home. I’m not saying this is going to be pretty; I’m saying like this would be paying to have sex with a stripper from Belleville, NJ…not proud of it and certainly not telling your friends but it will get the job done.

Bengals, Bills, Titans ML parlay

There shouldn’t be many points in this game due to the Jets sucking and the aforementioned two wideouts sitting: Jets under at home 11/17 and overall 6/7 of late. So let’s hold our noses and pray for heavy doses of Derrick Henry.

Titans under 44.5 and Titans 1h under 23

Well, the NY Giants continue to burn me like I was accused of heresy or homosexuality in the 15th century when betting them as a favorite. Now they head to the reopened Superdome after the hurricane washed away leftover Oakleys from drunk people leaving them after falling asleep in an alley of piss. Saints D is tops, #1 in PA, #2 in yards allowed. Hey guess what? No Slayton or Shepard in the lineup this weekend. I don’t care that the Giants are 10-2 ATS on the road, they’re 4-8 SU of late, 1-5-1 ATS, 2-5 SU against the Saints. Winston not wowing people on offense but I cannot see the Giants storming back to backdoor this one, let alone win. But why take a chance so I teased the Saints down along with the Titans

Saints teaser -1.5 and Titans teaser -1.5

Saints under of late 5/5 as well as 5/5 vs NFC and the Giants are 5/6 against the NFC. Pitt under 7/10 of late, 12/17 on the road, and 6/7 vs NFC. Ben is cooked and Pitt’s d can slow down Aaron Rodgers enough to keep this score below 51.5 with the tease

Giants teaser under 47.5 and Pitt teaser under 51.5

The TB line baffles as much as people who find Sebastian Maniscalco funny. We get it, he reminds you of your Italian family with goofy faces. He’s making a mint with his merch and I’m typing up NFL picks on a Saturday afternoon, he wins! But I can’t see a possibility that the Pats win; I don’t care that Brady is running the Pats offense in Tampa. I care that Brady off a loss and ready to shove it up Bellichick’s dickhole. Bucs are 8-4 ATS of late, 10-1 SU, and 8-1 SU on the road. The Pats are 2-5 SU and ATS. Pats have been underdogs at home 19x since 2000 and they’re 14-4 ATS. How many are with Brady? IDK, I’m not giving that much of a shit. Name one Patriots offensive player that you have to circle. I’ll wait. Still waiting. I’ll see a better Sopranos movie before you give me someone who strikes fear into any of your hearts. The Pats strength is running the ball and we all know how the Bucs can stop the run. The Pats have NO ONE who can expose the Bucs secondary so how are the Pats able to score points? Antonio Brown is back but Gronk is out. I see nothing but a Bucs win but didn’t want to lay 7 in the goofy backdoor instance.

Saints teaser -1 and Bucs teaser -1

Who are the Bears starting at QB? Cade McNown, Jim Miller, or Rex Grossman are all candidates vs what Fields did last week agains the Browns. Chicago got blown out 2/3, Allen Robinson has 4 straight games under 40 yds. Call me insane but I like the Lions which the Ford family hasn’t said in a long time except when talking about tax write offs. I had the Ravens in 2 teasers and the ML parlay so when that Tucker FG took a fortuitous bounce, I shit myself pretty hard. Harder than David Chase did when writing that Sopranos film. Ok, I’m done with those references, I promise. But the Bears are -3, who the fuck are they to be laying ANY kind of points, especially when they have YET to name this week’s QB. Detroit has played hard for 2.5 out of 3 games this year and we all know they should’ve won last week. Lions previous numbers don’t back the play but remember these are all with Stafford and not Goff: 2-4 ATS and 1-4 ATS in Chicago. I think the play is to play a 7 pt teaser and get the Lions to over 10.5. Watch the Lions win outright…

I’ve hit the Vikings dead nuts last week and bet their over every game this week. BTW, Thielen has a caught a TD in 11 straight October games. This Browns D stinks and they’ve covered 2 games over the past DECADE against the NFC. Browns 1-7 SU vs Minn, 1-4 SU in Minn. Minn is 12-3 SU in October and 6-2-1 ATS in week 4. Give me wackadoo Kirk Cousins who has been top 3 QB this year so far catching 10 points.

7 pt teaser Vikings +10 and Lions teaser +10.5

After my buddy Nick gave me a few stats, it’s hard to unsee these stats: Seattle is 15-5 ATS against the Niners, 13-2 SU, and 6-1 SU in SF. Niners are 4-8 ATS of late and 0-5 SU. And now Seattle is catching points AND off 2 losses? This is do or die time for Russ to air it out like Rodgers did against SF last weekend. If not now, when?

Sea +3

2021 NFL picks week 2 Against the Spread

Back from Vegas and caught up on sleep (finally) where I was accosted by not one by two, Aunt Kathies. Both were above 60 however one looked like she could still compete in beauty pageants (no bullshit) and the other…well, let’s just say she was quite excited to apply suntan lotion to me while talking about her “cooter.” And of course, who could forget about the Raiders fan we saw last monday night at the bar with his jersey name being, “Raider Pussy” and the number 1.

5-3 last week, 1-1 this week as I took the Giants +3.5 (hit) and 1h under 20.5 (miss) So that brings me to a total of 6-4 for the year and remember, all the videos starring the Cookie Monster are on IG and FB (if you’re lucky enough to have me as a friend3

Lost the Bills last week teased down to .5 as I thought they’d win and they sure dominated the line of scrimmage. But a fumble for a TD and going for it on 4th and failing twice did them in. Pitt D played well and now they face the Raiders who opened their stadium in grand fashion, an OT thriller that HAD to leave them spent. I just hope Raider Pussy 1 makes the trip to Pittsburgh to support his Raiders. Derek Carr was the worst QB last week against pressure. And has Lois Einhorn said in Ace Ventura, “What do you know about, PRESSURE?” I know Carr was 1/9 with a pick under pressure and if Pitt can make Josh Allen look like Josh McCown, they’re gonna do wonders to Carr today. And no Josh Jacobs either, I’m not joshing you with all of these Joshes. Vegas is 1-4 SU in Pitt but 7-1 ATS against Pitt. Pitt is 5-1 ATS at home in September so that should make you feel better. I can’t see the Raiders coming into Pitt and making much, if any, noise. I grabbed it at 6.5 but as of 10:52am, the line is back down to 5.5, when I should’ve grabbed it. And that’s the rule kids, don’t wait to get cute. You see a number you like, lock it in before it goes to or above a key number (3 and 7)

Pitt -6.5 (medium bet)

For those of you who watched the Pats game, you saw they Pats were about to go into the end zone against the Fins and then coughed it up. I have to think there’s less than zero chance that Bellichick loses to a Jets team who got manhandled by Carolina. Oh yeah, their stud OL Beckton is out now. Pats defense will easily send Wilson running around for his life. Pats 5-2 ATS against the Jets but 10-0 SU against them and 5-0 SU in NY. Jets are also 1-9 ATS in September so inspiring about as much confidence as an immunocompromised patient licking a subway pole. This one SHOULD be an easy one.

Pats -5.5 heavy

Can’t believe I’m typing these words but christ, here we are…I enjoyed Sebasian Maniscalco’s last standup special. Just kidding! I like the Bears this week. They played a solid game against the Rams defense, Montgomery had over 100 yds rushing and Dalton was decent. Stafford just threw some quick strike bombs (covered w the Rams in 2 different teasers and a ML parlay) but never really had control of the game like you would think. Bengals played an OT thriller where they got lucky that the refs called a fumble for Dalvin Cook that wasn’t. But ya boy had that Minn over and sucked that out. So Cincy is 1-18-1 SU on the road but 4-2 SU on the road against Chi. Wow, that’s odd. Bengals defense has more gaping holes than Hope Solo’s leaked nudes and I think Dalton does enough to win, plus the number is on the right side, 1.5 but I locked in at 2.5. Not really worried about that swing. Bears are 5-0 ATS against AFC north teams but 1-4 SU at home of late. Again, those numbers are out of whack as Dalton just became their QB. I think they do enough to win by that FG

Bears -2.5 medium

I have the Colts as an under for this year but remember, key numbers are in play here. As stated above with the Bears, Rams were good but not as dominating as you thought. Here’s the stat of stats for you. Colts have lost EIGHT straight week 1 games and have won 3 straight week 2 games. They’re getting back Quinton Nelson which should be a help to Wentz. Colts are 5-1 ATS against NFC and Rams are 1-5 ATS against an AFC team. Again, the number is key as it’s 3.5 and home dogs who are 5-2 ATS this year already. I think the Colts keep it tight

Colts +3.5 medium

Panthers manhandled the Jets last week which is as surprising as Josh Gordon manhandling weed. BTW, he got reinstated AGAIN this week. That’s how you know it’s about to be fall, when Josh Gordon gets the thumbs up from the league. Even Steve Howe said, “enough is enough.” And now for the handicap which is going to be a lot of what I said above, home dogs cover a bunch. And now, let’s take it a step further. Mike Lombardi said divisional home dogs cover ~64% of the time. Also, Saints are missing a TON of coaches due to Covid and their best CB, Lattimore, is out with a hand injury. Winston treated Green Bay like Biden handled the Afghanistan exit, sloppily. But did you know he didn’t have 100 yds passing till midway through the 4th quarter? Wow. And get this: Under Brees the Saints are 8-1 SU against Carolina BUT 2-5 ATS. Meaning they play them tight.

Car +3.5 medium

I think we all know that Cleveland, TB, and GB are going to respectively murder their opponents like Cardi B murders the English language. But as a savvy gambler, you’re not laying double digits in the NFL. And I don’t feel like laying out money line prices like -650 cause god forbid you lose one of them, you’re down a lot if you bet all 3. So I made a 3 way money line parlay bet with those 3.

3 leg ML parlay Cle, TB, GB. heavy

The Browns can put up points as can Houston. Both defenses stink so let’s focus on some over stats: Vikes and that fractured locker room led by that wacky Kirk Cousins has gone over 4/5 of late. Zona has gone over 5/6 at home and we saw what they did to Tennessee’s defense that only be compared to Bayonne, NJ. Browns have gone over 6/9 of late but under 4/5 against Houston at home. Teasing both of these games makes 27-20 games both winners. And I have HALF an inkling to take Houston +13.5 and if that hits 14 by kickoff, I’m on it.

Teaser Browns over 41.5 and Vikings over 44.5 medium

I’m afraid of a lazy backdoor cover by the Falcons even though they showed as much fight as Terry Schiavo during a tug of war against the Eagles last week. I expect TB to come out firing as they’ve had 10 days off and after almost losing to the Cowboys, not letting up one bit. Don’t be surprised to see TB up by at least 10 at the half and not have to sweat the second half and a backdoor cover.

TB -7 heavy

NFL playoffs wild card weekend ATS

4-1 last week to end the season on a winning and profitable note, 53-45 which translates to 54% winning bets. Nowhere near as good as last year (61%) or year before (62%) but we’re above break even and making money, that’s all you want to be. I REALLY like these picks this week so let’s go to the video tape.

I dare you to bet against the Bills right now. They blew out the Dolphins in a completely unnecessary game and the Fins have a great defense. Colts defense is like the Simpsons, used to be great but has fallen off a cliff. You know the last time the Bills didn’t cover the number? Before complete civil unrest? No, not that long. Kyler Murray throwing up that Hail Mary is the answer. Bills are 8-0 ATS of late and 5-0 SU home of late. Colts BARELY beat the Jags last week and they’re not playing well of late, 2-4 ATS. They’re 4-1 SU but 2-4 ATS against Buffalo. 48, 36, 56 are not the bra sizes of your favorite porn stars with H cups more more, those are the numbers Buffalo has put up in the last 3. They’re AVERAGING 34.5 ppg and I’m not standing in front of a moving train, I’m on that moving (money) train. Oh yeah, they’re beating teams by an average of 10 points. I would absolutely bet this -6 but I like another game that needs the number to come down so let’s make this an even easier cake walk (hopefully)

1st leg of teaser Bills -1

Tom Brady is like Howard Stern’s parents, they hate deviating from a routine and are in bed before people start eating dinner. Brady is 0-4 ATS during night games. But you think I’m going to lay my easily earned money on Washington when Taylor Heinicke took the MAJORITY of the 1st team reps in practice? And Riverboat Ron said they may rotate quarterbacks? Translation: Smith is REALLY hurt and we know his ATS splits of playing vs not are extremely lopsided. Do you trust either QB or their RBs against the #1 run defense in YPC? No. But we all know Brady HATES getting hit more so than other QBs. And damnit, if the Giants had their shot against them tonight (Fuck you Doug Peterson), I’d be loading up on the Giants, ML and spread, and under. But Washington has a great defense and it’s not going to be the Blue Angels aerial show we’ve seen. TB 4-1 SU and ATS of late but 5-0 SU on the road. Skins 5-2 ATS and SU which makes you think this is going to be closer than 8.5 and you’re right. And this is why I had to tease:

2nd leg of teaser, Bucs -1.5

Because of all the reasons above, I also like the under for a myriad of reasons. Bucs are 4/5 under in Wash of late. WFT, 5/5 of late, 5/7 under vs Wash overall. No QBs against a team that’s amazing against the run. But nothing better than a little cushion and you know where this is going…

1st leg of a 6.5 pt teaser TB under 51

Seattle Seahawks have become your friend that was an absolute blast before he was married, going out and on trips whenever you felt like it. But since he’s been married, he won’t leave the house unless it’s with her (and she wants him to still go out). Seattle scored on average 34 and gave up 30 on defense. But their new identity of running the ball and defense, they’ve gone under 7/8 of late and 12/16 against the Rams. You also expect us to trust a rookie QB making his 2nd start, 1st in playoffs? Nope. And we know the Rams #1 overall defense (1 in scoring, 1 in YPP) plays close games as well, 4/6 under on the road and 11/13 of late, WOW. And here’s the final nail in that coffin: both times these 2 teams have played saw combined scores of 39 and 29, well below the number you have now, 42.5 But you already know what yours truly is about to say…

2nd leg of 6.5 pt teaser Rams under 49

This next line makes as much sense as storming the Capitol without a mask to conceal your identity. Seriously, if I were to do so, I’d walk in there like Snake Eyes from GI Joe, covering from head to toe with zero skin showing. And then I’d fight Storm Shadow in the chambers to the death while saying nothing because I’m staying in character. The Ravens are a 3 or 3.5 pt favorite IN Tennessee. Why? Because they won their last 5 games, most by considerable margin? Great, let’s look at those teams. Oh yeah, FOUR OF THE FIVE were below .500. You know what the Ravens record was SU against teams now in the playoffs? 4-4. And 1 of those wins was against the WFT who made it in by sucking the least. NO ONE has stopped Derrick Henry and the Baltimore defense isn’t stopping him unless it’s the entire cast of the Wire and 2000 Ravens. Yes, we know the Titans defense is putrid. But what does Baltimore do best? Run the ball. What can’t Lamar Jackson do? Throw the ball well. Bad 6-0 ATS of late and 12-5-1 in Tennessee. But that was pre-Tannehill. And who won their head-head matchup this year. Tenn. Titans are 5-2 SU of late and Lamar still has the same number of wins as Ken Jeong has funny standup specials. Would ANY of you be surprised if the Ravens go tits up again? I wouldn’t. Then again, I LOVE giving myself insurance and did so for another game so guess what I did…

1st leg of 7 pt teaser Titans +10

This next handicap is going to be quick and painless, unlike your mother’s blow jobs. Mitch Trubisky seemed to steal the souls of 5 runaway teens and got a hell of a deal from the devil to be playing the way he has of late. Bears are 2-4 ATS against the Saints, 0-6 ATS, 1-5 SU in NO. Saints 7-1-1 ATS of late, 5-1 SU at home, 11-2 SU. The Bears haven’t played a defense above 13th ranked DVOA and take a guess what number the Saints are? 2. Bears smoked 3 teams of late: Minn, Jax, and Houston. All 3 teams with defenses that looked like prolapsed anuses. Or is it anus-i for the plural? Brees at home in January of late, not good. Snakebitten 2 times in 3 years by Minnesota. This is it for Brees, he’s out next year. Now he FINALLY has a healthy Michael Thomas and Kamara should be back too. This is the real reason of taking that 7 point teaser so I could…

2nd leg of 7 pt teaser Saints 2.5

Bonus pick: I threw down a ML parlay: Bucs, Bills, and Saints

NFL Week 17 against the spread picks

Last week was a complete shitshow and probably the worst week I’ve had in YEARS. Lost the Hou teaser, AZ, GB under, Steelers under teaser, and Rams. Only thing I won was Buffalo for a total 1-5 week, dropping my total to 49-44 and that’s an all time low for me, 53% for the year. Goddamn, a shade above break even and we’re going to get up to 57% after the Superbowl, that’s my promise!

Goddamn, I said this since last week when the Skins lost. The Giants are winning this week. Yes, I know the Giants are 1-4 in last 5. Cowboys d allowed 30 points in half their games this year. Dallas 2-8 SU on the road, big shot but 5-2 ATS of late and 7-0 SU. Last game, Giants lost on a last second FG when they knocked Dak Prescott for the year and clown pussy head Andy Dalton led them down the field. Garbage weather today/tomorrow in north Jersey which plays right into the Giants hand. And of course, who knows Dallas better than the clapper himself, Jason Garrett. Giants just might win division or they may get the 3rd pick in the draft, it’s a hell of a swing.

First leg, Giants +7.5

It’s obvious the Texans have quit. Exhibit A: Brandon Allan 370 yds against the Texans defense. You gotta be shitting me, all they had to do is just win and I would’ve hit that teaser. Texans are 5-11 ATS of late, worst in NFL. I don’t care JJ Watt called everybody out; including Wade Phillips D cups.. Titans are 4-2 ATS of late and 13-6 SU. Titans are 6-13 ATS against Tenn and just got off of royal ass beating in GB. Derrick Henry is gonna run through defense like I ran through half of Terminal C before I had a diarrhea attack before a flight.

Second leg of teaser: Titans -1.5

The Niners have been trick for me to figure out. Niners 3rd down defense best in NFL, that’s pretty cool. Russ 14 giveaways last 10 games. Ok, there’s another trend. But San Fran 2-6 ATS of late and 2-6 SU. They’re also 1-6 ATS at home. Seattle 15-4 ATS against SF and 12-2 SU. Also, 5-1 SU of late. But here’s the problem, motivation. Seattle may pull everyone if and when GB beats the Bears for the #1 seed. And we know that Seattle d is soft, except when Jared Goff and the Rams can’t score from the 1 as well as Goff throwing a pick in the red zone. Kittle is back for the Niners and Beathard played well enough to beat the Cardinals. Teasing this baby up

Niners +13

Saints 5-9 in week 17s. All Saints RBS are out due to contact with Kamara. They must have been playing 2 minutes in the closet with each other, me-OW! Ty Johnson will be getting the start but that’s not going to get anyone’s clit hard. Saints 1-5 ATS against Carolina. Carolina 4-1 ATS of late and they’re playing hard for Matt Rhule. The Saints will be scoreboard watching and if GB gets up early and by a lot, those starters are coming right out. Nonetheless, I think the Panthers keep it close but let’s get that second leg of the teaser with

Teased to Car +11.5

Want an easy way to burn 30 minutes on Instagram. Just tap the search icon, that’s it. Hundreds of Vegas 9’s and above just waiting for you to click on their profile and eventually Only Fans page. And the Packers are looking as sexy as the NFC conference champion. Packers 9-1 SU in Chicago, 15-5 ATS against Chicago. Packers 18-7 ATS against Bears including last 3 covered. Bears have injuries in the secondary. 3.5 is a weird number and the Bears HATE the Packers. Plus, could the Bears backdoor this? Idk that but what I do know is the GB defense MAY get backdoored and especially if they go up early. So I’m going to do something I’ve yelled at others a million times for, a parlay. Gonna do GB money line parlay so I don’t have to worry about the 3.5, just win, baby.

KC Chiefs have a first round bye sewn up like Mitch McConnell’s turkey chin should be. He looks like a sad turtle and in the beginning stages of transitioning. Anyway, teams that have won home field throughout are 9-23 ATS in week 17. Chargers have covered 3 straight, Chiefs haven’t covered in 7. And by either magic, illusion, or blackmail, the Chargers players and ownership love Anthony Lynn. He’ll be playing for his job as well. But the Chargers can Charger themselves getting backdoored so here’s the other end of my money line parlay.

Philly 8-4 ATS as home dog. Wash 6-26 when Smith doesn’t play. 10-5 ATS when Smith plays. Philly 2-5 ATS of late, 1-6 SU. But 4-1 ATS at home. Skins 5-1 ATS of late but 2-5 ATS against Philly. This could be the end of Doug Peterson so I think Philly comes flying (sigh, fuck that song and the dummies who sing it) and plays hard. You also have Alex Smith probably out there for the Skins and he’s banged up. I think the Eagles keep it close and spoil the Skins, thus possibly helping out the Giants. But let’s give your ulcer and anus a LITTLE buffer and make Philly a double digit or near double digit dog. As much as I hate Philly, I want the Giants to get to the playoffs and I think if the Eagles lose, it won’t be in a blowout fashion as McLaurin is also questionable for Wash.

I did a 6.5 teaser and got Philly to 10

Dallas allows 5 yards a carry in awful weather. Under 6/6 for Giants, 4/5 at home. Giants don’t score points and they won’t be in the rain and cold tomorrow.

Second leg of the teaser is Giants under to 51

NFL week 16 picks ATS

Merry Christmas everyone and let’s dig yourself out of the credit card holes for Christmas presents. Last week, 3-2 to get back on the winning side. I hit the Saints in the first leg of a teaser and the Bucs in another leg of a second teaser. I lost with the Cardinals -5 yesterday as they were flatter than an A cup against a 3rd string QB. 0-1 to start this week, 48-40 YTD which is 55% for the season, still in the black!

I absolutely love the Bears this week, which is something I thought I would NEVER say anytime soon. When Trubisky and Montgomery have played together this season, they’re putting up 30 ppg. Bears have scored 69 points in 2 games which takes the Jets about a month to do. And they’re playing Jacksonville, who unlike the aforementioned AAA football team of NY, won’t fuck up the #1 pick. Jax 4-8 ATS of late, 0-10 SU of late. They’re also 0-6 SU at home. Bears are 2-6 ATS of late but 4-2 ATS against Jacksonville. And the Bears are fighting for a playoff spot and well as Trubisky is fighting for a job. This has PRIME teaser taste to it and that’s exactly what I did here.

First leg of teaser, Bears -1.5

Last week, the Rams were as embarrassing as Dr. Fauci’s first pitch in the World Series. If there’s anyone to back after a loss, it’s the Rams: 13-5 ATS after a loss. 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season. Also, the Rams 12-5 ATS on the road. Rams are 5-2 against Sea and average 33 ppg against them. Seattle 2-5 ATS of late but 4-1 SU. And we’re going to make this an even safer play. McVay is a covering machine against Seattle, I see no difference here.

Second leg of teaser Rams +7.5

The Chiefs aren’t covering games AT ALL. Pushed last week against the Saints and I believe their last 5 wins have been by no more than 6. They get up and then take their foot off the gas pedal. Chiefs are 0-5-1 ATS of late but 9-0 SU, 12-1 SU at home. All 1-4 SU of late, 3-6 SU in KC. But here’s a stat that jumped out at me: Matt Ryan as a double digit dog is 5-1 ATS. And the Chiefs D is 32nd in RZ defense. Tyreek Hill will be on a snap count so having their home run hitter limited is another bullet I have. Here’s hoping the Chiefs D does Tera Patrick used to do for many moons, let strangers in her backdoor.

First leg of the teaser Falcons +16.5

A lot of people love Green Bay at home where they’ve been a covering machine. And I have made a TON of money this year teasing GB down but you may have noticed if you’re betting at the regular number, they’re not covering SHIT. 2-4 ATS of late but 6-1 SU and 12-1 SU at home. It’s snowing all day in GB and a high of 28. Green Bay is 21st against the run and you know they’ll be dialing up Derrick Henry and controlling the clock. Rodgers is great in the snow but I don’t see him winning by a TD. Hell, they might even lose. Tenn is 4-1 ATS and SU of late. Also, 4-1 SU against GB and 10-2 SU on the road. Everyone loves backing the Pack at home but you’d better to it on the ML and not lay the 3.5…

Second leg of teaser Titans +9

Thank Christ I didn’t take the Pittsburgh game monday night but that’s going to play a role into this next pick. Cincy obviously blew their load on monday night and now they face a Texans team who is better than their record as well as got the short shrift on some games. See: Colts games this season. Now they’re home against the Bengals and the time is right to fire in. I know Hou is 5-10 ATS of late, 4-11 SU. And Cincy is equally as bad: 2-4 ATS of late, 1-5 SU. And they’re 2-8 ATS against Texans, 1-8 SU. Also, 0-5 SU on the road.

This is the 2nd leg of the 7 pt, TB teaser where the first leg was the Saints. Houston down to a pick’em

Gotta have a total for you this week so here it goes, another teaser??!!! Indy has been over 7/10 of late but those are against awful defenses. Pittsburgh 5/7 under of late and they’re under fire for losing 3 straight in sloppy fashion. Indy had a great defense and they get Buckner back. I don’t see a crazy amount of scoring so let’s take the number to:

Pitt under 50.5

Chargers 8/11 over of late. I know they’ve gone under a lot of late: 4/6 under vs Denver, 9/13 at home, and 7/7 home against Denver. But Denver D is insanely porous and now Bradley Chubb is out. Joey Bosa is out as well as a couple of other defenders for the Chargers. We know Herbert can put up points and Lock had his moments this year. I think they can combine for…

2nd leg of the teaser, Chargers over down to 43

Lastly, we’ve got one more leg of a teaser to fill and boy, I love this one. The Bills have been the cuckholded boyfriend in the AFC east to the Pats since I wore sweater vests and puka shell necklaces. But now, the tables are turning/have turned. I think the Bills come out and shove a roman candle in Bellichick’s ass for 20 years worth of beatings. Bills are 6-0 ATS of late, 7-1 SU. The Pats are done and sticking with Cam which no one can explain. Bills with a few extra days rest and plenty of motivation to get that 2 seed. The ONLY thing the Pats have in their corner besides their coach is some quasi-recent success against the Bills: 6-2 ATS vs NE, 7-1 SU. But those go past the Josh Allen era and I’m more than happy to take 6 points and make this virtually a pick em.

2nd leg of the Saints teaser, Bills -1

NFL Week 12 picks against the spread

What’s this?? Gutting the Sacred Cow #38 on iTunes top 100 for films

3-3 last week and I took the Dallas under on Thanksgiving night. Well, that turned into a loss because Mike McCarthy is a fuckhead, dumb dildo coach who goes for it on 4th down deep in his own zone TWICE and of course, Washington gets touchdowns both times. Bringing my yearly total to 35-31-2, 53%. God, I’m even ready to fade my as we’re JUST above break even for the year. Let’s get some winners here:

The easiest bet has been the Chargers over. The second easiest bet will be Anthony Lynn getting fired. The third easiest bet will how awesome our Gutting the Sacred Cow live show be. And if you haven’t gotten tickets yet, I just happen to have the link right here: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

Chargers have went over 7 straight over. The Chargers’ totals during that seven-game stretch have been 69, 57, 68, 61, 57, 50, 62. Chargers defense allowed 28 points in 4 straight. Chargers 8/9 on road. Bills over 8/10 and 4/5 over at home. Bills over 8/11 against AFC west. Bills bottom half ranked defense.

Teased Chargers over down to 45.5

Did I ever get the Falcons wrong last week. The Saints defense was more fired up than a sheikh in a roomful of drugged up runaways. Now they play Drew Lock? Broncos 17/21 under vs teams with a winning record. Last 3 games, Saints allowed 8.3 ppg and 6 total second half points. Saints #2 in rushing defense. Denver 70% under at home. Taysom Hills first time in altitude? Not many points going to happen there…especially now that Denver had ALL FOUR QBs GO ON THE COVID LIST. Yeah, they have a guy named Hinton at QB today. The new line is Saints -15.5 and o/u 36.5. I could see teasing the Saints -9.5 and over 30.5. This game could easily be 24-7 and that’s a winner. Thank Christ I locked in Saturday afternoon before this news broke. Closing line value, baby!

2nd half of teaser is Saints under 49.5

Pittsburgh/Baltimore may not even happen as more covid cases are popping up. James Connor just got put on the covid list but so is Lamar Jackson. Now, Lamar may play if he passes a few more tests. Both teams haven’t practiced all week so this may be a bit of a shitshow. Bal 1-4 in last 5. 4-0-2 in Pitt. Covid everywhere. 7-1 ATS last 8, 10-0 SU, 5-0 at home SU, 6-0 ATS against AFCI HAD to jump on it when the number was 4. It’s now 7 so I’d recommend teasing Pitt down if I were you; no way in hell would I lay more than 4 in a division game.

Pitt -4

I’m breaking cardinal rule number 1 as a Giants fan (NEVER bet on the NY Giants unless it’s the under) but guess what, it’s been working of late. Giants 8-0 ATS on the road. Now, I’ll preface that last fact by saying damn near all of those games were as underdogs. This is the first time we’re laying points. They’re off the bye, fired up, and even fired their offensive line coach. The gang is playing for Joe Judge and that’s what I want to see. Giants have scored on 70% of RZ trips in the last 3 games. Brandon Allen QB for the Bengals, under 50% completion. Giants 6-1 ATS of late, 4-2 SU against Cincy. Cincy 6-3 ATS of late, 1-4 against NFC

Giants -5.5

The Niners are getting healthier and I could care less. You think the Niners are coming to LA and hanging tight? Maybe. Rams 6-0 at home, 4-2 ATS of late. 8-1 SU against NFC, 7-2-1 against NFC west. SF 2-5 of late ATS and SU but 7-3 ATS and SU against Rams. 5-12-1 against the NFC west. So all that said, we’re going to make our lives easier.

First half of the teaser Rams -1

I’ll be goddamned if I ever have to trust the Bears again after they couldn’t do shit on a monday night 2 weeks ago. And now they’re starting Mitch Trubisky? Jesus Christ, lock and load. Bears are 7-13 ATS of late. 5-14 ATS against GB, 1-7 SU against GB and 2-10 SU in GB. Bears 3-7 ATS on road. 4/5 Bears losses by 8 points or fewer. GB 2-4 ATS of late. 13-4 SU of late, 9-1 SU at home. You think after a loss on the road they don’t rebound against a divisional foe?

and Packers -2.5 make up the 2nd leg of the teaser.

Titans looked great last week against the downward spiraling Ravens, one of the teaser halves I gave you. Tennessee 3-1 on the road. Titans and Colts, whomever wins the first meeting (Colts) is 7-17-1 in rematch. Titans 10-4 SU but 1-4 ATS. Colts 6-3 ATS, 4-1 SU, 5-1 SU at home. Tennessee plays tight on the road so let’s get us more than a TD cushion. No better time than to get some free points so why not

Make the first half of a teaser Titans +9

Tua sprained his thumb on a teammates helmet in practice and is doubtful for tomorrow. Which means everyone’s favorite bearded genius, Ryan Fitzpatrick, gets to come in and through all over the Jets putrid defense. Yes, I know the Jets have covered against the Pats and Chargers but which of these 2 teams are going to the playoffs? Bingo. Miami defense is going eat alive Sam Darnold who returns after a 2 game absence. Miles Gaskin (not Miles Dyson, the creator of Skynet) just may return tomorrow to. Dolphins 5-1 ATS and SU of late, 5-0 ATS and 5-1 SU against the Jets.

But since we need a team to pair with the Titans, the Dolphins down to -1 is more appetizing than your moms’ whorish mouth making kissy faces at me.

Second half of the teaser, Dolphins -1

Week 11 NFL picks against the spread

Did you get your Gutting the Sacred Cow live show tickets yet? Don’t worry, we still have SOME left, here’s the link to do so: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

3-2-1 last week so back in the W column. Pushed the Chargers teaser (wish I got 8.5 instead of 8), lost the Ravens teaser (they’re not as good as we thought they were) and also lost the Bears on MNF (Cousins snaps his 0-9 skid against an anemic Bears offense). Won the other 2 teasers and the Rams so bravo for me. Which puts me at 32-27-2 for the year, 54% overall. Still making money

Detroit Lions are lot like me in my early 20’s. I would be chatting up a lady at a bar and have her on the line. And a good chunk of the time, I would say something that would inevitably fuck up the situation and keep me from getting laid. And that’s the Lions, they’ll have 1st half leads and blow them late as their defense is worse than living in Detroit. Today, they are facing PJ Walker and they’re still likely down two OL (both doubtful). I’m gambling that Stafford plays (thumb) and all signs point to yes. No Golladay and no Swift, I know. But I think Stafford guides them to a first half lead and even if it’s tied, I’ll push.

Det 1H Pick em. It jumped to -1.5 but I locked in yesterday however I would still lay the 1.5

I don’t count player props in my W/L record (although I did hit Russ Wilson over rushing yds monday night!) but here’s one for you that jumped out me. GB defense allows 7 yds per target to RB. Nyheim Hines had a great game last week against a porous Tenn D so why not expect the same this week? Low number but higher vig (-120)

Hines over 27.5 yds

Titans are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS when getting 4 or more. What did the Ravens show me in that monsoon monday night? They’re not as good as we think? And the Titans got their doors blown off Thursday night against the Colts. The worst secret is that the Ravens can’t come from behind at all. Titans have 3 extra days to prep; plus the Ravens play Thanksgiving night. You don’t think they aren’t looking ahead to facing Pittsburgh that night? I do. Tenn 3-7 ATS of late but 9-4 SU. They are 1-4 ATS on the road. But just like boobs, more is better. So let’s go from 6.5 to 12.5 and watch the Titans keep this REALLY close, maybe even catch the Ravens in a trap game.

First half of the teaser, Tenn +12.5

As much as I loathe the Eagles (had the Giants in a teaser last week, didn’t need the points!), they’ve got to win today to stay competitive in the bargain bin of mediocrity known as the NFC east. Good news is that Philly is 5-0 SU against Cle. Bad news is Philly is 3-7 ATS of late and 1-4 ATS. Good news is Browns are 1-4 ATS of late and 3-6 ATS for the season. Also, 2-10 SU against NFC east. Bad news is Browns are 6-2 SU and 8-2 SU at home. A perfect world for me would be Philly losing but covering. Most importantly, Miles Garrett is out for the Browns which gives the 25 million dollar bust known as Carson Wentz some time to let receivers run their routes. Plus, Philly does have a pass rush and Mayfield averaging 5.8 yds per attempt. Give me a 20-16 Browns W…

Second half of teaser Philly +8.5

Ravens under 7/10, 10/13 under vs Tenn, 4/5 at home, 7/7 home against Tenn. Again, the Ravens have a game in 3 days, they’re not going to go crazy expending all of their energy. Titans bread and butter is Derrick Henry so expect a lot of running.

Tenn under 50.5

It’s the Taysom Hill spectacular! You know, the guy that is now eligible in some of your fantasy leagues as a TE that sent fantasy owners screaming to their commissioner? Who know how long this experiment lasts but I only care for 1 game. Falcons off a bye and believe it or not; they’re playing hard for Raheem Morris. Falcons 7-2 ATS of late, 7-3 SU in last 10 against NFC south. 1-4 ATS against NO but that’s against Brees. I have no idea what to expect but I sure as shit expect Matt Ryan to air out it and keep it close against a QB who spends his off season knocking on your doors at 7am on a Saturday; asking if you’d like have a copy of the Watchtower. So let’s REALLY give ourselves a cushion in case that Falcons defense makes like Eugene Robinson in the superbowl and gets busted for soliciting prostitutes that turn out to be a cop.

1st half of teaser is Falcons +10.5

We all know Andy Reid is as much of a lock after a bye as much as your moms are after 3 appletini’s at a TGI Friday’s happy hour. Now add how the Raiders did a victory lap on them after they won in KC the first go around. Finally, a pinch of Maholmes telling the media that they’re more than ready (paraphrase). The Chiefs are going to decimate them: Chiefs are 15-3 ATS and 17-1 SU of late. 10-5 ATS against Vegas and 5-1 SU. 6-0 on the road and 4-1 SU in Vegas. Please. And Vegas a much better road team than home, 2-5 ATS at home. But I need another team to tease so I’ll make this game less than a FG.

2nd half of teaser is KC -1 but I’d tease ANY number down to below a TD. It’s going to be a romp, 1995 Florida State Bobby Bowden style.

Already hit a the first half of my next teaser, AZ +9, on Thursday night. I will say that the Seattle safety sent shivers up my butthole which cut it to 4. Thank Christ Seattle just kicked a FG to win by 7.

I have no idea how GB is getting points. Yes, they didn’t cover against Jax and it was close for awhile. GB 6-3 ATS of late, 13-3 SU. GB also 4-1 ATS on the road and I get Rodgers in a dome? I don’t see Rivers able to throw the ball that well; even against a weak GB defense but they are getting Jaire Alexander back in the secondary. Yes, Indy is 4-0-1 SU home against GB but those are mostly if not all of Andrew Luck’s years. Now let’s make things even more interesting because I have to fill another teaser and give me 6 points? HIGHLY doubt GB loses, let alone by more than a TD

Second half of the teaser GB +7.5

If there’s one team that can fuck up a cup of coffee (Name that film…Casino!), it’s the Chargers. They’ve been snakebitten left and right and Justin Herbert has 1 win this year? Christ. They got hosed against the Raiders. But holy hell, if they can’t take down the worst team in the last 10-15 years, Anthony Lynn should be forced to watch Napoleon Dynamite and 2001 Space Odyssey (2 films we did on Gutting the Sacred Cow podcast!) back to back for eternity. Joe Flacco is starting and if you recall, he gave the Pats a scare but of course, the Jets give up 10 points in the final 5 minutes and lose. But the Jets also are without the INT leader Pierre Desir and Brian Poole. I just see the Chargers kicking their dicks in despite being 1-7 SU of late, 1-5 SU at home, and 2-4 ATS at home against the Jets (Phil Rivers years) Don’t worry, the Jets don’t have much going for them, 2-7 ATS of late and 1-6 ATS on the road. But again, why not make it under a TD so you can’t get backdoored.

First half of the teaser: Chargers -3.5

I think this last pick is the easiest of them all. Remember gambling rule #2: always bet against Mark Sanchez and Andy Dalton. Yes, Dallas just came off a bye but remember, they’re playing on Thanksgiving against their hated rival, the Redskins. Would you be surprised if they just get to Minnesota and went through the motions to prep against a team they are in the middle of a division race for? Let’s also acknowledge Kirk Cousins BEST spot is when he’s at home for a 1pm start, he’s ~65% ATS. Dallas is on their THIRD center this week; I don’t care if it’s Dalton, Aikman, Quincy Carter behind center, that’s gonna screw them up. And if you haven’t been paying attention; Minnesota has quietly been a covering machine, 6-1 ATS of late and 4-2 SU. They’re 7-0 ATS home against Dallas (Dak’s years to boot!). Dallas 1-8 ATS of late, 1-6 SU, 0-6 ATS on the road. These numbers inspire less confidence than me sitting down to watch a Jack Black/Seth Rogen/Ben Stiller movie. I have to finish up a teaser so let’s make this virtually foolproof.

Second half of teaser: Vikings -1

Week 8 NFL against the spread picks sports betting

Back in the money, WOO-HOO! And we’re back on the winning train, 5-3 last week which brings me to a total of 25-17 and back to 60% Week 8, here we go.

I took Carolina on Thursday night which will count for this week’s total so a rip roaring 0-1 start to this week. Now we’re going to focus on the winning picks.

Green Bay is 2nd in PPG and rolled last week against the Texans (had that one last week so you’re welcome) Vikings just traded one of their top defensive players to the Ravens. And when you trade one of your best player away from an already shitty defense, you’re in deep trouble. Packers are 10th in rushing, Vikings are 22nd in rush defense. Why do I bring that up? Because it’s going to be windy as all hell there tomorrow. Packers can run the ball but so can the Vikings. Vikings have the 29th worst pass defense so when the Packers need to throw it, they can. Vikings gave up 40 points to the deadbeat Falcons defense. I think Green Bay does the job and handles Kirk Cousins with ease. Numbers to back up my argument unlike some of my friends that make picks online? Here we go: Vikings are 1-4 ATS against GB, 3-8 ATS in GB. Vikes are 1-5 SU this year. GB 5-1 ATS, 8-0 SU at home.

Now, wake up tomorrow and check the weather. If it’s as windy as they say it is, play the under. And here’s why: 9/12 GB/Minnesota games have gone under, 9/11 under in NFC north, GB 6/7 under in November, Minn 4/5 under on the road, Minn 7/10 under vs NFC north.

LOVE GB -6 and under 49.5, which you can tease to 54.5 with something else

I know people are trying to harness lightning in a bottle again by picking the Raiders when they’re underdogs. Yes, the Browns lost OBJ but as how many receiving TDs did he have this year? 3. Did he have 100 yard game this year? No, 81 yds is his high for the year. So let’s be honest, as Mike Francesa says, he’s just become a shadow of himself and only a name. Not the high rd draft pick some of you thought he was. What do the Raiders do? Besides have their fans pretend it’s Halloween ever day without ever getting the metaphorical treat being a trophy? They sure don’t stop the run, allowing 4.9 a carry. It’s supposed to be windy here; thus helping out Hunt and Josh Jacobs. Vegas is 2-7-1 against Cle and most of those games are when the Browns were the WORST team in the NFL, not with their current talent level. Vegas 4-8 SU in last 12 as well. Cle 5-1 SU of late and 7-1 SU at home. The number is PERFECT and if it got to three, I could completely see taking the Raiders. But as of Sat night, it’s 2.5 and I grabbed it to avoid the sharps possibly pounding it to 3 or higher.

Browns -2.5 and also, check the winds in Cleveland. You may want to go under 49 as it has dropped from 53 already…

Explain this to me: why is it every year when the Steelers play Baltimore, the line is always 3, no matter then venue. Now the Steelers are getting 4.5 in Baltimore. That’s just ludicrous, just as insane as saying you enjoy Napoleon Dynamite. Yeah, we had to watch that film for Gutting the Sacred Cow. That film is pure trash and anyone who thinks otherwise, is wrong. Back to the Steelers. So they’re undefeated and the Ravens have a loss PLUS almost blew a lead to Philly. Please explain why you’re going to give more than 3 points to the top run defense in the league to a team who runs damn near 65% of the time. More numbers, sure: Pitt 5-1 ATS of late, 6-0 SU. Pitt 2-6-1 is against Bal BUT at least 2 of those losses were last year with no Ben Rothleisberger. Bal of late, 12-4-1, 17-2 SU, and 5-0 ATS against AFC North. Great numbers so I’m going to give one better number.

Tease Pitt to +10.5, there’s damn near an impossible chance the Steelers lose by more than a TD IF they lose.

Second team to tease that with…Cincinatti Bengals are playing the Titans who just lost their first game because Stephen Gostkowski is trying a hybrid impression of Scott Norwood and Ray Finkle. But as we know Tennessee can put up points: Over 4/5 of late and 10/15 against AFC. Slingin’ Joe Burrow is backdooring more teams than anyone at a truck rest stop. He’s 2nd in the league in pass plays but They’re 5-1 ATS of late but also over in 8/11 and 4/5 over at home. But the Bengals are banged up on the offensive line. I think the Bengals put up enough points but the Titans take out their frustrations on a putrid Bengals defense.

2nd half of the teaser Titans over 47.5 and feel free to tease the Titans down to -1 with something else.

The Giants lost their Will and Will Hernandez to Covid. The Giants are 1-8 ATS at home, amazing they’re better on the road than home as they’re 4-2 ATS out of last 6. Giants are 4-1 ATS as a dog but I just don’t see Brady and company with a top 5 defense having trouble with the Giants. Giants are a bottom 10 defense. Tampa 4-2 ATS of late and 5-1 SU. TB 1-6-1 ATS in NY and 1-7 SU but those numbers go back to Winston for TB and Eli for all but 1 game for Tampa. Let’s cut that deficit in half by…

Teasing TB to -6.5 and the second half of the teaser is…

The team I hate most in professional sports. And buyer beware because ever time I bet these dildos, they fuck me. But by gawd, King. If the Eagles CAN’T beat the WORST defense with a THIRD STRING QB, Carson Wentz needs to anally impale themselves. The Eagles managed to undo a Giants 11 point lead last thursday. And you might as well as bet the Giants to blow that lead like you would bet Seth Rogen’s next movie is going to be about an awkward person that’s Jewish. Eagles are 5-1 SU against the NFC east which helps the cause. Dallas has given up on McCarthy and lost the locker room. Dallas 0-7 ATS of late and 0-5 ATS on the road. You gotta think the pass rush is going to get Dallas to turn the ball over because Dallas has already done so 16 times this year.

The line has skyrocketed so I teased Philly down to -5

Seattle -2.5– 5 full quarters on the road sunday night but playing an insanely banged up SF offense. Seattle 4-2 ATS of late, 5-1 SU. 12-4 SU at home and 8-1 SU home against SF. SF 4-14 ATS in Seattle but 6-1 ATS in road.

A few more candidates to tease or play:

Rams under 45.5- Tua’s first start and it’s hot as hell tomorrow. Rams under 4/5 and 5/7 on the year. Miami 4/6 under vs the Rams and under 4/6. Miami D 2nd in yds per point.

Tennessee -1 for all the reasons above.

NFL Week 17 ATS Picks

Indulge me for a second.  How does talent go unrecognized for so long?  It took Breaking Bad at LEAST 5 pitches before it was made.  Do you know who pass on the role for Walter White?  John Cusack and Ferris Bueller himself.  So if it took Vince Gilligan this long to get the greatest show ever made passed, it’s going to take a long time for me to get noticed for my penchant of making picks.  And to see more of that, check out Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber on Youtube/Facebook.  

Here’s the link: 

Yeah, I’m ABSOLUTELY KILLING IT.  4-1 last week, 16-4 in 3 weeks, and 62/105 for the year.  Which translates to an insane 59% for the season.  52.5% is break even but we’re going to finish wayyy above that.  I’d love to get over 60% for the year as well as pay off this Grand Cayman trip.  Week 17 is always tricky with figuring out who is going to rest starters.  So here we go!

Lock of the week:

No shame in getting numbers to where you want them.  Houston is gunning for that sexy ass 2 seed and they need to win to have a shot at it.  Lamar Miller should be back for the Texans.  Black Bortles is back, yuck.  And he’s on the road?  Double yuck.  Jax is 2-7-2 ATS of late, 2-9 SU, 1-4-1 ATS on the road, 2-7 SU against Hou, 2-6 SU in Houston.  Houston is 5-1 SU at home, 6-2 SU at home vs Jacksonville.  Do you think Jacksonville is gonna give it their all on the road?  And against a team who wants that #2 seed?  I don’t. 

We’re teasing the Texans down to .5 so it’s a pick em.

Second half of the teaser.  Let’s pick against another team who is purely on, “I don’t give a fuck” street.  The Lions are giving as much an effort as I would trying to stop Emily Rajakowski putting her privates on mine.  Green Bay has won 2 straight after firing Mike McCarthy, who looks like he wears flip flops and socks with a backwards hat and Oakleys on a Carribbean island.  GB 4-2 ATS at home of late.  Now the Lions and the NFL’s worst pass defense come into Lambeau where they’ve been manhandled worse than anyone dating Kareem Hunt’s.  Det of late is 3-6 ATS, 5-2 on the road ATS.  More importantly, the Lions are 7-16-2 in GB, 2-23 SU in GB.  Matt Stafford on the road stinks like Joy Behar’s hoo-hah.  He was rested in the 4th quarter of last week’s game with a balky back.  He may have the same happen to him again if this game starts to get out of hand or may not even start at all.

Teasing the Packers down to -2

New OC in Minnesota loves running the ball.  That under hit with relative ease last week although Kyle Rudolph catching that hail mary at the end of the first half sent a shiver up my butthole.  The Bears come into town, also needing a win to go for the #2 seed.  They’re not going to be showing off anything to the Vikings as they may play each other next week if the Bears don’t get the 2 seed.  I don’t see Trubisky running it up on the road and no Allen Robinson (no big deal, he sucked this year for those who had him in fantasy) for the Bears.  Minnesota needs the game to make the playoffs but I really see this as a defensive game and numbers back up this statement.  Vikings under of late, 4/5 and 8/11 at home.  Bears on the road, not exactly lighting it up either.  Bears 4/5 under of late, 10/14 vs Minnesota, and 5/7 in Minnesota.  

Minnesota under 40.5

Nothing like hedging a bet, right?  I have the Bills under 6 wins for the year.  They’re currently at 5 so I’ll push if they win.  So let’s capitalize on a game where they’re going to most likely take care of business at home.  In come the Dolphins who are just as sloppy as a West Virginia family at an OK Corral.  Miami is 1-5 ATS on the road, 1-5 in Buffalo.  Buffalo is going to be colder than Lena Dunham’s other side of the bed.  Miami got deal their hopes destroyed last week and do you think they’re rallying on the road, in the cold?  I sure don’t.  Their pass defense is atrocious and is the worst when it comes to giving up big plays.  Allan is throwing the ball so that falls right into our favor.  The line is currently 5.5 but I took this last night when 6 was the number.

So I teased the Bills down to a pick em.  

Goddamnit anyway, it looks like the unthinkable has a chance to occur again.  Nick Foles and his supposedly immense penis are making Eagle fans believe that they can do the unthinkable again.  No, not class up that garbage city they play in.  If Philly wins, they could likely get in with a little help.  Now they’re going to Washington who just cut DJ Swearinger.  The Redskins ship is sinking, they have one of the worst run defenses, and the Eagle fans will infest this place Alabama fans infest cruise ships to the Bahamas.

Second half of the teaser, Eagles down to -1

As I mentioned, week 17 has a lot of teams looking to rest or keep key players out of harms way.  But they still need them to perform to build a big enough lead or win outright.  Exhibit A: The Kansas City Chiefs are home after a loss in Seattle against the Raiders.  After Gruden’s press conference Monday night; he said, “I’m glad to end the season with a win.”  Umm Jon, there’s still another game left.  Oakland is on a short week.  Also, I expect KC to roll against them but cover in the end and possibly resting starters with a shit defense?  Don’t know about that.

Take Chiefs first half -7.5

Let’s continue that trend with another team in the playoff hunt.  The Chargers are home against the recently pasted Broncos.  Vance Joseph has as good of a chance of having a job on Tuesday as well as I do laughing at a Tyler Perry film.  Again, Denver is on the road after a short week.  No Phillip Lindsay either, he just went on IR.  Eekler is back for Are the Chargers covering for the full game if they see the Chiefs are running away with their game?  Probably not.  They’ll yank their key guys and take that 5 or 6 seed.  So let’s bank on the max effort for the Chargers early.

Take the Chargers first half -3.5

Last game of the slate for me.  Andrew Luck has yet to lose to the Titans.  They’re in a must win scenario too.  Wait, Andrew Luck goes against either a banged up Mariota who has the same amount of feeling in his body as a stroke victim?  Or even (crossing my fingers) Blaine Gabbert?  No Orakpo for the Titans on d either.  Colts are 11-3 ATS playing Tennessee and 4-2 ATS in Tennessee.  Titans are 7-3 ATS and 7-1 SU at home but I repeat, Andrew Luck has never lost to the Titans.  And they’re on fire of late, especially when coming back from down 10 to the Giants last week. 

Grab the Colts -3

Week 16 NFL Picks ATS

58-42 for the year, 58%.  Ya hear me?  I HEAR YA!
Lock of the week:
Dallas got smoked by the Colts (one of my top bets last week, thank you). Now they’re home against TB who are 5-9-2 ATS.  They’re 2-4 ATS in Dallas and 1-10 SU in Dallas.  Dallas 5-1 ATS of late, 4-1 ATS at home.  If I’m using SU facts, you know what that means.  Yep, it’s teaser time.  
I teased Dallas down to -1 which makes them a virtual pick ’em.
Second half of the teaser involves the wounded ducks up in Foxboro.  The Pats definitely don’t look themselves as Brady really showed his age and a few mental lapses in Pittsburgh last week.  Now they’re home in a must win against the Bills.  When was the last time the Pats blew anyone out?  9/30 against the Dolphins, 38-7.  They’ve won by no more than 2 TDs in their other games.  No Josh Gordon, that’s a problem.  Gronk is definitely running around like Forest Gump with leg braces. Josh Allen looks the opposite as the Pats give up 5 YPC.  Pats are 2-3-1 at home against the Bills, too big of a number and the Pats D can get backdoored easily.
I’m teasing the Bills up to +19, I just don’t see the Pats blowing them out.  
Chargers are “home” after a 10 day layoff and get the Ravens who are fighting like hell for a playoff spot.  The Bal D has done a bang up job, only allowing 58% of completed passes and 3.6% passes into TD.  With Lamar Jackson as QB, they average 36 min TOP.  What does that mean?  A lot of clock run off.  Ravens have faced some AWFUL run defenses which gave them the edge to control clock, 5 out of the 6 in the league.  Short week for the Ravens as well.  Bal have gone under 8/12 and 4/6 on the road.  Chargers have gone under 4/5 at home.  
Chargers under 43.5
Dalvin Cook blew up last week like I said he would.  And now he gets a chance to run against the diarrhea defense of the Lions.  Minnesota under 5/7 of late, 4/5 vs Detroit.  Did anyone see Matt Stafford light it up last week?  Said by NO ONE this season.  They’re home but that doesn’t give a tickle in the banana hammock.  Lions are 5/6 under at home, 5/5 of late.  
Vikings under 42.5
Goff stinks on the road, 7 road games he has 7 TDs and 7 passes.  Cardinals have allowed 6th fewest points to RBs.  Gurley is banged up but we all know the way to take out the Cardinals is on the ground.  What does that mean?  Running=clock killing.  Do you see the Cardinals scoring?  I don’t.  They have scored 21 points ONCE in 5 games, 20 points 2 in two.  The last 2 weeks, they’ve combined for 17 points.  Against the Lions and Falcons.  I’ll let that sink in.  Cardinals are 7/9 under at home as well.  The Rams are an under machine of late, 4/5. 4/6 playing Arizona.  
Arizona under 44.5
Don’t look now but the Niners have won 2 straight.  They have the Bears coming to town after a ton of partying since they’ve locked up division.  I think even though the Bears still need the game for the #2 seed, this is still a trap game.  Bears offense on the road, #29. Niners defense at home #13.   Bears are 5-13 ATS vs SF, 1-8 in SF.  Niners are 4-2 ATS playing the Bears, 8-1 ATS and SU vs the Bears.  Here’s another case of the number being right.
Niners +4
Giants just got shutout at home, Indy just pitched a shutout against Dallas.  Giants will bounce back and 10 points is just too many.  Giants are ATS undefeated on the road. 5-0, and 4-1-1 of late ATS.
Giants +10
I’m also considering Arizona +14.5