Week 3 NFL picks

It’s amazing what a changes in a week.  I started out this NFL season 0-5 with the picks.  Last week, 6-1.  The only loss was my lock of the week, of course.  Seattle BARELY beat an awful Niners team but didn’t cover.  The other big spread was Oak vs Jets and the Raiders gave the Jets the old East Rutherford chicken cutlet.  It’s been a weird season thus far.  Giants and the Jets are a bad 0-2 while the Chargers are a good 0-2, as they missed 2 kicks which EASILY puts them at 1-1 and probably 2-0.  

I started out this week 0-1 as I along with 2328975902357 other people took the under in the Rams/Niners Thursday night game.  They had 21 points in the first quarter and ended up dropping 70 fucking points??!!!!  When was the last time TNF had an over, let alone a blowout?  Thankfully, I didn’t lay the load on that.  Onto the picks and hopefully more…FREEEEE MONEY!

The Pats were an easy pick for me last week but this week, 14 is a shit ton of points.  Can they win by 14?  Probably but since my asshole bookie doesn’t take money lines, I’m not touching that.  But the over 44 gets me tumescent.  Some stats why I like this pick: Over has hit for NE 5/5, 4/5 at home, 7/9 when the Pats play the Texans, and 4/5 when the Pats play Houston at home.  Gronk and Amendola are both a go.  NE doesn’t have a great d anymore so the Texans can put up easily 14 points.  And we know Houston D isn’t what it was because Jax gashed them.  Pats probably cover but I’m taking

Pats Over 44

I’d rather have the Carolina Tar Heels on offense than the Carolina Panthers.  Panthers have 32 points in 2 games, nothing special.  But they do have a defense that’s as forgiving as the bank on a late mortgage payment.  Who comes into town this week?  One of the worst road teams in the last 10 years, the New Orleans Saints.  I trust M Night Shamalayan to make a good film before I trust the Saints on the road.  The Saints are now getting 5.5 points.  But the Saints defense is hot horseshit.  Can the Saints put bust through that defensive wall to point up points?  But can Carolina, sans Greg Olsen, cover against the spread?  I have no idea but we do have another option.  Some stats for you to swish around in your mouth and spit into a bucket: Saints under hit 11/14 in Carolina.  Carolina under has hit the last 5/6 and at home, under has hit 4/5.  Hence why I REALLY LIKE:

The under 46.5

The NFL goes back to merry old London and the Jaguars are the NFL de facto home team over there.  Drawing the short straw and playing them are the Baltimore Ravens.  And “lucky” for everyone watching at home, the only way to watch this game is via stream.  Way to go CBS, as if you don’t jam enough commercials down our throats during the game, you’re not going to air something so I can eat some Cinnamon Toast Crunch while my daughter looks up from the iPad and yells out, “Daddy, ball!  Daddy, juice*”  *Denotes beer.  Normally, I would be all over the under but 39 allows for very little wriggle room, as last thursday night’s debacle proved.  But Jax getting demolished last week and Bal being 2-0 AND sandwiched in between division games is going to make a case for me this week.  Balt is 2-6 on the road ATS and 1-5 while playing Jax.  Balt is 1-3-1 when playing on the road against Jax.  But I think this can be the biggest “home” game for Jax as this is their 5th straight game in London.  They’re used to the surroundings, have down their routines, etc.  And they’re getting 3 points?  AND the numbers back me up?  You won’t hear me say this often but 

Give me the Jags +3

Denver is playing in Buffalo.  Both have great defenses and so-so offenses.  Denver has gone under 5/7 on the road.  Other numbers show the over is the play but they go back 6 or 7 games which puts this several years back.  You know, when Denver had a offense.  Buffalo this year has combined for 24 points.  Denver has put up points but I don’t see that happening against a good defense and at 1pm.  Listening to my gut and my eyes, despite little wriggle room.

Denver under 39

I cannot believe I’m caring about this game but when the numbers support it, I have no choice.  The Browns are a road FAVORITE for the first time in 2 years.  Either the bookies know something we don’t but the Browns giving points to ANYONE should be flagged.  I don’t see this line staying at Cle -1 but if you can get it before it becomes a pick em, do it.  Indy is 7-1 SU against the Browns and the Browns are 0-4-1 on the road.  But again, I’m not trusting either teams.  I’m trusting these numbers: Cleveland has gone under 5/6 vs Indy.  Indy is 5/5 at home with the under and 4 out of their last 6 have been under.  This game is more under than Crocodile Dundee.  Wacka, Wacka, Wacka.  (Shoots self in the face)

Take the under 42.5

The sharps are all OVER the Bengals.  They LOVE how they fired their offensive coordinator. I was recently in Cincinnati, the only thing to love about that town is the Reds ballpark followed by leaving that town.  I’m SHOCKED that the sharps love the Bengals so much that the line has dropped from 9 to 7.5.  Did they miss Jordy Nelson practiced in full?  Did they see the Packers get smoked sunday night?  Hope you had the over like I told you to.  Do you think GB is going to rebound, at home where they’re 5-0 ATS?  I do.  GB 8-3 ATS while Cincy is 2-5-1 on the road.  Cincy also 6-12-2 ATS in their last 20.  Head to head numbers? GB 5-2 ATS vs Cincy.  Will Cincy get it together?  Maybe.  But not this week.  Death, taxes, and GB at home.

GB takes a skyline chili influenced dump on Cincy and covers -7.5

Arizona came back to win but not cover against Indy.  I hope you had Indy like I told you to.  I think they’re home with a good D and Dallas D getting gashed by Denver equals an AZ cover but go heavier on the under.  Want a good laugh?  Watch Ezekiel try and tackle.  MANIACAL LAUGH.  Dal is 2-7 in their last 9 ATS.  Dallas went under 11/14 on the road.  AZ 4-1 ATS vs Dal and 4-2 at home when playing Dallas.  The under has hit 4/6 times when these 2 square off.  AZ has had the under hit 9/12 at home.  Tons of numbers to back my predictions of: 

AZ +3 and under 47.

The lock of the week can also be also said as such: Death, taxes, and never Pitt on the road.  7.5 is a lot but I’m not ready to trust Mike Glennon.  Yes, Jordan Howard is playing and practiced in full on friday.  But Pitt has a great defense.  And oh yeah, Mike Glennon. I don’t see the Bears putting up points and I don’t see Pitt lighting up the scoreboard either.  Which is why I’m going with yet again,

The under 44

Some quick hits for other games I MAY take, depending how I do

KC and SD over, the Jets +6, and Oak -3

Last week, 6-1

This week 0-1 (Rams under)

YTD 6-6

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Superbowl Picks against the Spread

The day all eyes (except communists) are turned to the TV, Superbowl Sunday!  Denver! Carolina!  Cam and the race baiters vs Peyton and the feel good karma.  What say you?  Before we get to the picks, I wanted to say that I created a damn good video (with my daughter) that refuses to upload so you get the article instead.  Thanks Obama.

Carolina -5.5 over/under 44

A little breakdown, why not?  Carolina has the MVP Cam Newton, Greg (the leg, look it up ladies and alternative lifestyle living men) Olsen, and Jonathan Olsen on offense.  Luke Keuchly and Josh Norman head up a ball hawk defense that pull in more sixes than my buddies do during a night out at the bar.  Denver has old man Manning (great name for a Scooby Doo villain), Denaryius Thomas and his jailbird mother, Aqib Talib, and Danny Trevathan head up the #1 defense in the NFL.  

The early money was on Carolina, driving it from an opening line of -3.5 up to 6.  The public drove that line up faster than Hillary Clinton polarizes an audience.  The whales that fly into Vegas the night before started to dump money on the Broncos, dropping it to down to 5, and now it went back up to 5.5  The over/under opened at 45.5 and now it’s dropped down to 44.  Translation: everyone thinks this will be a low scoring event.  Now, if you think Carolina is going to win, it will be in a blowout fashion with the over easily achieved.  If you think Denver is going to win, you probably think it will be a 21-17 type game.  What’s my pick???

Denver +5.5

I know, I was huge on Carolina after they dismantled my Super Bowl pick, the Cardinals.  Here’s why I’m going with Denver.

A) EVERYONE will want Denver to win; it’s the quintessential feel good story.  Peyton’s done, let him go out on the highest note…unless you’re watching the games at home and you’re sick of those goddamn Nationwide/Papa John’s commercials and hoping Peyton gets runs over by a driver with no insurance while eating that awful pizza.

B) The weather is currently 63 degrees which helps Peyton immensely.  But Kevin, he played in 50 degree weather against the Seahawks 2 years ago in the Superbowl.  Yeah but the Carolina D is not the Seahawks team from 2 years ago.

C) The Broncos are looking to grind out the clock and that’s what they did against the Pats.  They can’t keep up in a shootout so look for a lot of running and quick passes.

D) Carolina is notorious for putting up big leads but then giving up the late back door cover.  If Denver does go down by a lot quickly, Carolina will go into soft coverage and probably let some points score.  And remember, Denver doesn’t have to win, just cover.

E) And I saved my best point for last: Carolina has ALREADY planned their victory parade. The kiss of death…only bad things can happen when you do that.

I’m still scratching my head with the over/under and I haven’t put a wager down yet or may not even do so.  I’m waiting for the line to move BUT if I had to pick one now, I’m taking…

The over 44

Superbowls are primarily overs and I think more points will be scored, more like 24-21.  There is LITTLE room for the under and I haven’t seen many recent superbowls, sans my NY Giants vs the Pats, where the under hits.

Prop bets

Number of times Kevin refills his beverage when Coldplay is playing

3.5

OVER

Number of times Kevin yells at the TV, “HOW THE FUCK IS COLDPLAY DOING THE HALFTIME SHOW!  I DON’T KNOW ANYONE WHO OWNS ONE OF THEIR ALBUMS?”

19

OVER

Number of times Kevin wonders aloud why Beyonce married Jay Z when she has plenty of her own money yet her husband looks like a sad catfish.

3

Under, I’m just restating the obvious

Number of minutes Kevin watches the halftime show

5

Under.  I’d rather spend time openly mocking my friend who is a Cowboys fan.