Week 7 NFL Picks

The NFL is by far the hardest league to consistently pick winners.  The best handicappers are 55% and your boy is currently 54% for the year.  Who the fuck would’ve thought Denver would’ve lost OUTRIGHT to the Giants?  That screwed a ZILLION people (hand in the air) in their suicide pools.  And who would’ve even contemplated the Falcons would lost OUTRIGHT  to the Dolphins.  At home.  After a bye?  Jesus H Christ, this gets zany.  Oh wait, let’s talk about this past Thursday’s Oak/KC game?  Chiefs laying 3 but the Raiders drive the field late.  Raiders on the 1 and then get called for pass interference, back em up 10 more yards.  Time for just one more play and what happens next is just stupid: Carr throws incomplete but hold on, defensive holding.  Can’t end the game on a defensive penalty so here we go again.  Another incomplete pass but deja vu inserts itself with ANOTHER KC defensive holding penalty.  Carr gets one last shot at redemption and the third time is the charm as he finds Crabtree for the TD.  Point after is good, Oakland wins by 1.  If you had KC (I had the under, that shit was toast by the middle of the 3rd quarter), you developed an ulcer.  If you had the Raiders, you must have been balls deep in a leprechaun while Kate Upton motorboated you at the same time.  And if you plan on motor boating Kate, do it soon as she’s going to hit the wall in about 3-5 years.  She has Anna Nicole Smith part 2 written all over her.

3-3 last week so a push for the week sans the vigs.  As I mentioned, I took the Oak under and lost so it puts me at 0-1 this week.  Let’s right this ship with some winners.

Can you make an argument how the Colts can win or cover 3 against the Jags.  Me neither and that’s why I really like Jacksonville in Indy this week. Fournette hasn’t practiced all week but they’re saying he still may go.  And even if he doesn’t, I’m still confident that D can shut down the Dolts.  Ivory is very capable of gashing that awful defense.  Some numbers to back up my statement, sure.  Jax is 6-3 ATS in their last 9, 5-1 on the road, and 4-1 ATS vs Indy.  Sound good?  I think so too.

I like the Jaguars -3

Deshone Kizer is back behind center.  I think Cleveland has had more quarterbacks in the last 20 years than Jenna Jameson has taken dicks on camera.  Cleveland has put up over 20 ONE time this year.  Tennessee has put up over 20 3/6 times this year.  Cleveland has a pretty good defense.  Can you see this game 24-21?  Best case scenario, which is great because the under is 46.  And let’s end this handicap with one last statement.  Cleveland has gone under at home the last 5/5.  Good enough for me…

To take the under 46

One of the bets I didn’t put in that I should have was taking the Bears getting 6 against the dumpster fire Ravens.  Those same Ravens now travel to Minnesota who admittedly are a bit banged up on WR.  Diggs is out and Michael Floyd left early in last week’s game. But the Vikings have a rock solid D and (Mike Francesa voice), “Let’s be honest, ok?  I’d ratha see the new Madea Halloween movie than trust Joe Flacco on the road, ok?  Here’s da Mink Man, back afta dis.”  Balt 3-7 ATS out of their last 10 and Minn 4-1 ATS at home.  Sometimes the best bets are the ones that require the least amount of thought.

Take the Vikings -5.5

Green Bay plays at home against the Saints who have been lighting it up when it comes to the over, home or away.  GB has also been a lock for the over at home.  But let’s bring up 3 facts:  The Saints have an improved (could it have gotten worse?) defense.  I mean, we’re still used to see a Saints defense getting exposed like a freshman sorority girl, begging for beads on Bourbon Street.  They gave up 38 last week but 2 of which were a pick or ST TD.  The previous week, they held the Panthers to 13.  But 2 weeks before, they shut out Miami (NBD, I get it).  Next which is the obvious, no Aaron Rodgers. And finally, the forecast calls for a good amount of rain leading into game time.  Is Brett Hundley going to put points up?  In the rain?  Against an average defense?  He did throw 3 in Minn last week.  I’m going to monitor this one solely based on the weather and IF the rain does indeed come through, I’m taking.

GB under 47

I like mixing up routines, vacation spots, and when I was single, women.  But now the few constants I love are steak, teams that stick to their trends, and winning free money from said trends.  That being said, let’s investigate another routine which I exploited a couple of weeks ago with the Jags.  The Rams have been to London several times already.  They stayed in Florida this week to prep for their trip across the pond.  They had some great fluky TDs against the Jags last week (one of my winners) and now they’re 3.5 point favorites against the Cardinals.  Cards just blew the doors off of an awful Bucs D and Jameis Winston’s shoulder.  They brought in the smartest (on paper) QB, Fitzpatrick, who is everyone’s favorite guy to bet against and he actually cut the lead down with the help of a pick 6.  But the Bucs lost (one of my losers) so the Cards got off the schneid.  I barely trust Carson Palmer and if you think I trust him when his body clock is 8 hours off schedule, you’re insane.  This game gets ugly, like the Brits’ smiles and food creations.

Take the Rams -3.5

AFC Central matchup this week, Bengals vs Steelers.  Or as I call it, two towns of women that resemble a grilled cheese sandwich with Rosie O Donnell’s face.  Bengals off the bye and the Steelers are home after stealing one in Kansas City with an amazing circus TD catch and run for Antonio Brown.  The line is MUCH too high for a division game, as these games are usually decided by a FG.  The history is against Cincy in Pitt but 5.5 is just too much; especially since the Bengals have gotten their shit together recently offensively as well as always having a decent D.  And I’m also quite inclined to take the under as Cincy/Pitt have been so 7/8 last times in Pitt.  Cincy also has been under 5/6 on the road.  But I’m waiting to see till tomorrow (this article was written on Saturday night) how that line moves.  However, I’ve already locked in…

Cincy +5.5

Here are a few games that I’m debating about taking tomorrow but seeing how the line moves:

Pitt under, SF, Denver, Pats and over, 

 

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Week 16 NFL Picks Against the Spread ATS

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5-4 last week, worst week I’ve had in a while but still over .500 for the week so the streak continues.  But first, Merry xmas and happy hannukah. The picks are coming early as they are a shitload of games tomorrow vs Sunday. Hopefully you have a betting day than Carrie Fisher’s recent plane ride. I have a lot of facts for you but doesn’t meant I’m taking ALL of these games. Check my fb video with my little Aryan offspring tomorrow for the official picks. But I guarantee that the picks I make are from this list.

I’m a student of trends and gut calls. That’s why I’m almost at 63% for the year.  So let’s get down to getting you (and me) freeeeee money!

You know the Jets are garbage and they proved that Sat night against the Dolphins. This week, they face Tom Brady and the Cheatriots. They already locked up a first rd bye. But I don’t see the Jets getting blown out. Jets are 7-0 ATS against the spread vs the pats and  Pats are 12-25 ats when they are favored by double digits. 17 points are wayyyyy too many. Pats will take their foot off the gas by halftime and I don’t care if Ray Lucas is quarterbacking. 

Take the Jets and a mountain of points.

I really like the Colts in Oakland this week. Indy destroyed the Vikes and their playoff chances last week.  Visitors are 15-2-1 ATS in Oakland and the Raiders as a home favorite are 10-24-1. Indy is 4-1 straight up against Oak and they’re getting 3. Shockingly, the Colts still are in the playoff race so this game means something for them.  And surprise, I like the over too. The Indy defense is trash and we know the Oak defense can be suspect. I loved Oak over last week but those assholes fumbled twice in the red zone as well as had to settle for a FG when they were first and goal on the 1. How about cold, hard facts? Indy has hit the over in 6/7 road games. Oak has hit over in 6/7 home games. overwhelming evidence like that has me plunking down cash on both.

Indy plus 3.5 and over 53

The Ravens let the Eagles score 9 points in 10 minutes last week to screw that bet. Then Doug Pederson in his infinite wisdom cuts it to 1 with a TD with :04 left and then goes for 2?  UGHH.  At least I could’ve had a shot in OT.  People shit on Eli for coughing up the ball but Flacco isn’t far behind; if not equal, in this department.  A fumble and pick in 2 different trips in the red zone sure didn’t help last week.  The line is Pitt -5 and that’s just way too high for them. No gut call here, 11/15 of their games have ended in 3 points or less.  Pitt is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 but this train stops cold here. 

Take the silly purple uniforms plus the 5.

The Bears are on fire and Matt Barkley is proving me wrong every week. Bears are 5-0 ats in their last 5 and in comes in Washington off a short week and a complete beating administered by the Carolina Panthers. Bears getting 3 at home after nearly upsetting GB? Why not?

I’m going with the Bears +3

Tampa covered for me last sun night against Dallas. In fact, they almost won. They beat the Saints 2 weeks ago in Tampa. Hence why everyone loved them this week, which scares the hell out of me.  I hate being on the public’s side and I think Saints can win -3 but not confident enough to take them. But here’s another stat: 11/13 of the games between the have resulted in an under. And it’s high this week, 52.

I’m taking the under Tampa 52, yet again.

Didn’t think I would be wagering on these idiots again this season but the time is right. The Rams are home against the Niners and Jeff Fisher is no longer the coach to screw things up with that 80’s porn mustache. The Niners are trash and the Rams came close to knocking off the Seahawks last Thursday. Nine days to prep for a team that hasn’t won since…beating the Rams week 1. I’m inclined to take the Rams -4 but here’s a few more numbers for you: Rams at home have hit the under 6/8 and 5/6 times vs the Niners.

For sure, taking the Under 40 and maybe Rams -4

Seattle has been off for 9 days as well and they’re up against an AZ d that got scorched in New Orleans. Sea on a 2nd straight home game is 22-7 and they’re also 19-4-1 ATS in Dec. the line is 8 and Carson Palmer can poop it up like no other. Here’s another fun fact: az is over 5/5 and 5/5 over on the road.

Probably taking Sea -8 and maybe over 43

Carolina on a short week and when Car and ATL play, 6/7 times are on the under when both teams play.  

I’m going with the under 51.

Packers are 13-1-1 against the spread at home and the Vikings are limping in and without Adrian Peterson.  

I’m taking Green Bay -7

And now, it’s time for my Stone Cold Lock of the Week.  (That’s a big lock)

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A lot of people are liking Miami in buffalo. Do I trust Matt Moore on the road? He destroyed the Jets last week, BFD. I have Landry in my fantasy championship so I hope he does it again. Let’s see him do this for 2 weeks straight. LeSean McCoy has been crushing run defenses like I was crushing puss a single dude. Those were the days, sigh. BUT let’s talk over/under. Buffalo has hit the over in 5 straight home games. Buffalo has hit the over in 9/10 games. And Miami has went over in 7/8. Those numbers are good enough for me.

Take Mia over 42

 

 

Week 8 NFL picks ATS (against the spread)

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Well, it took 5 weeks but I finally had a losing week as the Falcons shit up a 17 point lead, Fitzpatrick bails out Geno Smith (you read that right), and Minnesota got mauled in Philly.

Seattle played a marathon stinker last sunday night as the game ended in a tie of FGs.  Russell Wilson is banged up but remember the last time I said that, he decimated the Jets.  Whoa, whoa, whoa, stop the clock.  You know who is out for Seattle?  Michael Bennett AND Kam Chancellor.  2 guys that would normally make Drew Brees life hell but not today.  Drew Brees at home AND getting points?  Here’s a stat to make you feel better:  Saints are 28-8 ATS at home after a road loss.  You had me at Drew Brees getting points at home

I’m taking the Saints +2

Raiders have stayed on the east coast after decimating the Jags (then again, who hasn’t?  How Gus Bradley still has a job means he has a considerable amount of blackmail material against the owner).  Derek Carr has been doing not as well this year but well enough to win. Stats?  You got it.  Oak in EST, 9-10 ATS.  Ok, fine.  But Oak this year is 4-0 on the road and TB is 0-4.  Also, Bucs at home are 6-23 straight up, 9-20 ATS.  No Doug Martin and Gerald McCoy is banged up.  Oak is -1, so they just need to pretty much win outright.  Both defenses stink so let’s really capitalize on this.  I’m thinking this has 28-24 written all over it.

I’m taking the Raiders -1 and over 49

I’ve fallen for this several times this year and I’m sure most of you have as well.  The Super Bowl hangover is real.  But goddamnit, if Cam Newton stinks it up after a bye again, you can put the Panthers in the “untrustworthy” category.  Arizona comes to play at 1pm on the east coast so you have that going for you…which is nice.  And they ALSO played 5 quarters in that sunday night stinkaroo.  Are you trusting Carson Palmer on the road?  I’m not

I’m taking Carolina -3

Dallas is off the bye and home.  Dallas has won games because of Elliot, their O line, and D.  Dak Prescott is managing games well; sans the Niners game where he ran all over them, he’s not making huge throws.  Dallas may very well win this game.  BUT…Philly’s D has been shockingly great.  They have some good special teams and yes, Wentz has come a little back to Earth.  Eagles have won their last 3 in Dallas.  And let’s talk ATS, which is nothing like ATM, you perverts.  Dallas is 9 out of their last 34 ATS as a home favorite.  Philly as an underdog vs Dallas is 26-9.  The spread is too high, this game is going to be closer than 5 and Philly can even win outright.

I’m taking Philly +5

I haven’t had one of these in awhile but goddamnit, this is the Lock of the Week.

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We’re back on the Tom Brady, “Fuck you” bandwagon.  I’ll be shocked, shocked, SHOCKED! (Another Mad Dog reference) if Brady doesn’t run them out of their own building.  First meeting this year, Pats were shut out since Michael Dukakis thought he had a chance to win the presidency.  Bellichek isn’t getting swept this year.  And he’s certainly not forgetting the pre-game mini brawl that took place a month ago.  The line has moved up to 6 but I don’t care.  McCoy is probably out, so is Watkins, and Clay is banged up.  Their defense looks like the team North Texas in Necessary Roughness.  Brady and the boys run them out of their own building.

I’m taking the Pats -6