Week 8 NFL picks

5-2 last week (Jax, St Lou, Saints, GB under and Titans under but lost Wash and Cincy), just what the doctor ordered.  And you know what you should order?  Your tickets to see the LIVE Comics Watching Comics Show on 11/18 at Gotham Comedy Club, 5pm.  The show is being taped for Amazon Video so come out and see the up and comers as well as current comers (insert TT Boy or Ron Jeremy joke here, you hacks).  So go to http://www.gothamcomedyclub.com and get them now.  No bullshit, tickets are moving at a nice clip and the room is small so act now.

What a well played, defensive game on Thursday!  Said not by me; because I fell into the Matt Moore hype machine and got torn apart like a flat earth supporter.  So 0-1 to start and hopefully this week ends with more bang than those JFK files that were released.  Seriously, if I wanted something without an ending, I’d rewatch that lazy Sopranos finale. You call that an ending?  I call it a “lazy way out” in an attempt of being avant garde. 

Usually, I love to back up my handicaps with facts but my leadoff pick is strictly a gut one  as well as based on trends.  Was anyone impressed with the Pats win last week?  I wasn’t.  They weren’t great against the Jets either.  I think this is the year that if the Pats have to go to KC or somewhere else with a tough crowd, they could fall in the AFC championship.  In come the LA Chargers, who finally got their first “home” win against a dogshit Denver offense.  Phillip Rivers who can backdoor a cover like the best of them (seriously, how is there not a gay bar named Backdoor Cover?  Come on Mets fans, someone can make a lot of money with that!) is getting 7.5 against the worst ranked Pats defense.  Yes, I know NE is typically tough at home and yes, their D has been better of late.  Yes, I know Rivers can wave his magic wand and make a pick 6 appear on the board with less than 2 minutes week.  Yes, I know that this is a west coast team playing on the east coast at 1pm.  But any gambler knows you’re playing the number, not the team. 7.5 points is that special number.  The Chargers D is pretty good and I just see them hanging tough tomorrow.  The best stat I can give you is that the Chargers are 12-4-1 ATS on the road.  Jump on it now before it drops!

Take the Chargers +7.5

Deshone Kizer is the Browns QB…this week.  I’d rather have Kaiser Wilheim as my QB, at least he wasn’t out partying till 2 am last friday night in Cleveland.  And now they fly to England  to face the Nikes who just rolled the Ravens.  Vikings are most likely getting back Stephon Diggs and that’s just going to make things more nightmarish for Cleveland. Do you see Cleveland scoring more than 10 points?  Neither do I.  They hit 20 points ONE time all year, as I pointed out last week.  By the way, this morning at 5:30 am, someone pulled the hotel alarm.  I don’t know what they had for breakfast, which really would make this a, “who gives a shit” story. But it’s always fun when the team you want to bet against gets woken up early in their hotel.  Cleveland has the #8 defense (and #3 worst looking women, next to Pittsburgh and Philly) so it’s going to be tougher to score against them too.  Oh yeah, one more fun fact.  Minn is 8-0 the week before their bye.  This game wreaks of 20-7 so you can pretty much figure out where I’m going with this.

Take the Vikings -9.5 and the under 37.5

You know what I forgot to do, besides write better jokes in this article?  I forgot to take Seattle and the under last week against my Giants.  Those are absolute locks, Giants NEVER beat them and sure as shit can’t put points on the board.  But I’m not missing a chance this week and I’m taking Seattle this week.  Why?  Well, let’s do a social commentary first.  The Texans owner said that he didn’t “want the inmates running the asylum” and that cause quite the kerfuffle in Houston.  But if Bob McNair makes another comment like that, he may end up like Steve McNair.  KA-Boom, pun intended.  DeAndre Hopkins walked out of practice and it took the entire coaching staff to persuade the entire team not to follow suit.  You think they’re going to get fired up before getting on a plane to Seattle?  Seattle at home is pretty damn good, 5-2 ATS recently.  I see Watson having a harder time in a hostile environment.  Seattle under hit in their last 4/6 and Houston under hit 4/6 on the road.  But I think Hou COULD put up points but not enough to cover.  You’re only laying 6.5 and Houston is missing Watt and Cushing on D.  And like I said, a team pissed at their owner.

Take the Seahawks -6.5

The Colts give up an avg of 30 points a game.  That’s pretty goddamn awful, like Anchorman 2 awful.  The Bengals are home after getting skewered by the Steelers last weekend. The Colts have went 4/5 over, 10/11 over on the road, and 4/5 over in Cincy.  42 is a low number and I can EASILY see the Bengals dropping 27 points on Indy.  All you need from Brisett and company (sounds like a furniture store) are 2 TDs.

Take the Bengals over 42

Pittsburgh just destroyed the Bengals.  Martavius Bryant got demoted to the practice squad.  Detroit is off a bye and apparently shall have Golden Tate back.  Detroit isn’t great in primetime but here’s the stat that grabbed me: Pitt is 0-5-1 the week before their bye.  Pitt has improved their road ATS but I think they fall asleep at the wheel.  This game may end up in a push but let’s find out:

Take Detroit +3

And now, the lock of the week.  The Bears just shocked the pants off of the Panthers at home, 17-3.  Guess what?  14 of those points were pick 6s.  Trubisky threw SEVEN passes last week.  As I said last week, the Saints defense is better (good enough that the under hit) and they’re in New Orleans this week.  The Saints are back to their old ways of lighting it up at home and there’s just no chance that the Bears can keep up.  The Saints are 4-1 ATS and 4-0-1 ATS against the Bears.  I know it’s a high number but can you see a rookie QB matching Brees?  Nope.  

Take the Saints -9.5

I also kind of like this week: Carolina 5-1 ATS, 6-2 vs TB, 5-1 in TB.  TB 4-9 home ATS and 0-4-1 ATS.  Carolina is getting Luke Keuchly back as well.  I also like Sea under 45.5.  Seattle has gone under 4/6 and Hou on the road is also 4/6.  I think the Chiefs rebound at home after 2 bad losses and cover the 7 against the Broncos.  Lastly, I think the Bills can cover 2.5 against the Raiders at 1pm, in Buffalo.

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Week 7 NFL Picks

The NFL is by far the hardest league to consistently pick winners.  The best handicappers are 55% and your boy is currently 54% for the year.  Who the fuck would’ve thought Denver would’ve lost OUTRIGHT to the Giants?  That screwed a ZILLION people (hand in the air) in their suicide pools.  And who would’ve even contemplated the Falcons would lost OUTRIGHT  to the Dolphins.  At home.  After a bye?  Jesus H Christ, this gets zany.  Oh wait, let’s talk about this past Thursday’s Oak/KC game?  Chiefs laying 3 but the Raiders drive the field late.  Raiders on the 1 and then get called for pass interference, back em up 10 more yards.  Time for just one more play and what happens next is just stupid: Carr throws incomplete but hold on, defensive holding.  Can’t end the game on a defensive penalty so here we go again.  Another incomplete pass but deja vu inserts itself with ANOTHER KC defensive holding penalty.  Carr gets one last shot at redemption and the third time is the charm as he finds Crabtree for the TD.  Point after is good, Oakland wins by 1.  If you had KC (I had the under, that shit was toast by the middle of the 3rd quarter), you developed an ulcer.  If you had the Raiders, you must have been balls deep in a leprechaun while Kate Upton motorboated you at the same time.  And if you plan on motor boating Kate, do it soon as she’s going to hit the wall in about 3-5 years.  She has Anna Nicole Smith part 2 written all over her.

3-3 last week so a push for the week sans the vigs.  As I mentioned, I took the Oak under and lost so it puts me at 0-1 this week.  Let’s right this ship with some winners.

Can you make an argument how the Colts can win or cover 3 against the Jags.  Me neither and that’s why I really like Jacksonville in Indy this week. Fournette hasn’t practiced all week but they’re saying he still may go.  And even if he doesn’t, I’m still confident that D can shut down the Dolts.  Ivory is very capable of gashing that awful defense.  Some numbers to back up my statement, sure.  Jax is 6-3 ATS in their last 9, 5-1 on the road, and 4-1 ATS vs Indy.  Sound good?  I think so too.

I like the Jaguars -3

Deshone Kizer is back behind center.  I think Cleveland has had more quarterbacks in the last 20 years than Jenna Jameson has taken dicks on camera.  Cleveland has put up over 20 ONE time this year.  Tennessee has put up over 20 3/6 times this year.  Cleveland has a pretty good defense.  Can you see this game 24-21?  Best case scenario, which is great because the under is 46.  And let’s end this handicap with one last statement.  Cleveland has gone under at home the last 5/5.  Good enough for me…

To take the under 46

One of the bets I didn’t put in that I should have was taking the Bears getting 6 against the dumpster fire Ravens.  Those same Ravens now travel to Minnesota who admittedly are a bit banged up on WR.  Diggs is out and Michael Floyd left early in last week’s game. But the Vikings have a rock solid D and (Mike Francesa voice), “Let’s be honest, ok?  I’d ratha see the new Madea Halloween movie than trust Joe Flacco on the road, ok?  Here’s da Mink Man, back afta dis.”  Balt 3-7 ATS out of their last 10 and Minn 4-1 ATS at home.  Sometimes the best bets are the ones that require the least amount of thought.

Take the Vikings -5.5

Green Bay plays at home against the Saints who have been lighting it up when it comes to the over, home or away.  GB has also been a lock for the over at home.  But let’s bring up 3 facts:  The Saints have an improved (could it have gotten worse?) defense.  I mean, we’re still used to see a Saints defense getting exposed like a freshman sorority girl, begging for beads on Bourbon Street.  They gave up 38 last week but 2 of which were a pick or ST TD.  The previous week, they held the Panthers to 13.  But 2 weeks before, they shut out Miami (NBD, I get it).  Next which is the obvious, no Aaron Rodgers. And finally, the forecast calls for a good amount of rain leading into game time.  Is Brett Hundley going to put points up?  In the rain?  Against an average defense?  He did throw 3 in Minn last week.  I’m going to monitor this one solely based on the weather and IF the rain does indeed come through, I’m taking.

GB under 47

I like mixing up routines, vacation spots, and when I was single, women.  But now the few constants I love are steak, teams that stick to their trends, and winning free money from said trends.  That being said, let’s investigate another routine which I exploited a couple of weeks ago with the Jags.  The Rams have been to London several times already.  They stayed in Florida this week to prep for their trip across the pond.  They had some great fluky TDs against the Jags last week (one of my winners) and now they’re 3.5 point favorites against the Cardinals.  Cards just blew the doors off of an awful Bucs D and Jameis Winston’s shoulder.  They brought in the smartest (on paper) QB, Fitzpatrick, who is everyone’s favorite guy to bet against and he actually cut the lead down with the help of a pick 6.  But the Bucs lost (one of my losers) so the Cards got off the schneid.  I barely trust Carson Palmer and if you think I trust him when his body clock is 8 hours off schedule, you’re insane.  This game gets ugly, like the Brits’ smiles and food creations.

Take the Rams -3.5

AFC Central matchup this week, Bengals vs Steelers.  Or as I call it, two towns of women that resemble a grilled cheese sandwich with Rosie O Donnell’s face.  Bengals off the bye and the Steelers are home after stealing one in Kansas City with an amazing circus TD catch and run for Antonio Brown.  The line is MUCH too high for a division game, as these games are usually decided by a FG.  The history is against Cincy in Pitt but 5.5 is just too much; especially since the Bengals have gotten their shit together recently offensively as well as always having a decent D.  And I’m also quite inclined to take the under as Cincy/Pitt have been so 7/8 last times in Pitt.  Cincy also has been under 5/6 on the road.  But I’m waiting to see till tomorrow (this article was written on Saturday night) how that line moves.  However, I’ve already locked in…

Cincy +5.5

Here are a few games that I’m debating about taking tomorrow but seeing how the line moves:

Pitt under, SF, Denver, Pats and over, 

 

Week 3 NFL picks

It’s amazing what a changes in a week.  I started out this NFL season 0-5 with the picks.  Last week, 6-1.  The only loss was my lock of the week, of course.  Seattle BARELY beat an awful Niners team but didn’t cover.  The other big spread was Oak vs Jets and the Raiders gave the Jets the old East Rutherford chicken cutlet.  It’s been a weird season thus far.  Giants and the Jets are a bad 0-2 while the Chargers are a good 0-2, as they missed 2 kicks which EASILY puts them at 1-1 and probably 2-0.  

I started out this week 0-1 as I along with 2328975902357 other people took the under in the Rams/Niners Thursday night game.  They had 21 points in the first quarter and ended up dropping 70 fucking points??!!!!  When was the last time TNF had an over, let alone a blowout?  Thankfully, I didn’t lay the load on that.  Onto the picks and hopefully more…FREEEEE MONEY!

The Pats were an easy pick for me last week but this week, 14 is a shit ton of points.  Can they win by 14?  Probably but since my asshole bookie doesn’t take money lines, I’m not touching that.  But the over 44 gets me tumescent.  Some stats why I like this pick: Over has hit for NE 5/5, 4/5 at home, 7/9 when the Pats play the Texans, and 4/5 when the Pats play Houston at home.  Gronk and Amendola are both a go.  NE doesn’t have a great d anymore so the Texans can put up easily 14 points.  And we know Houston D isn’t what it was because Jax gashed them.  Pats probably cover but I’m taking

Pats Over 44

I’d rather have the Carolina Tar Heels on offense than the Carolina Panthers.  Panthers have 32 points in 2 games, nothing special.  But they do have a defense that’s as forgiving as the bank on a late mortgage payment.  Who comes into town this week?  One of the worst road teams in the last 10 years, the New Orleans Saints.  I trust M Night Shamalayan to make a good film before I trust the Saints on the road.  The Saints are now getting 5.5 points.  But the Saints defense is hot horseshit.  Can the Saints put bust through that defensive wall to point up points?  But can Carolina, sans Greg Olsen, cover against the spread?  I have no idea but we do have another option.  Some stats for you to swish around in your mouth and spit into a bucket: Saints under hit 11/14 in Carolina.  Carolina under has hit the last 5/6 and at home, under has hit 4/5.  Hence why I REALLY LIKE:

The under 46.5

The NFL goes back to merry old London and the Jaguars are the NFL de facto home team over there.  Drawing the short straw and playing them are the Baltimore Ravens.  And “lucky” for everyone watching at home, the only way to watch this game is via stream.  Way to go CBS, as if you don’t jam enough commercials down our throats during the game, you’re not going to air something so I can eat some Cinnamon Toast Crunch while my daughter looks up from the iPad and yells out, “Daddy, ball!  Daddy, juice*”  *Denotes beer.  Normally, I would be all over the under but 39 allows for very little wriggle room, as last thursday night’s debacle proved.  But Jax getting demolished last week and Bal being 2-0 AND sandwiched in between division games is going to make a case for me this week.  Balt is 2-6 on the road ATS and 1-5 while playing Jax.  Balt is 1-3-1 when playing on the road against Jax.  But I think this can be the biggest “home” game for Jax as this is their 5th straight game in London.  They’re used to the surroundings, have down their routines, etc.  And they’re getting 3 points?  AND the numbers back me up?  You won’t hear me say this often but 

Give me the Jags +3

Denver is playing in Buffalo.  Both have great defenses and so-so offenses.  Denver has gone under 5/7 on the road.  Other numbers show the over is the play but they go back 6 or 7 games which puts this several years back.  You know, when Denver had a offense.  Buffalo this year has combined for 24 points.  Denver has put up points but I don’t see that happening against a good defense and at 1pm.  Listening to my gut and my eyes, despite little wriggle room.

Denver under 39

I cannot believe I’m caring about this game but when the numbers support it, I have no choice.  The Browns are a road FAVORITE for the first time in 2 years.  Either the bookies know something we don’t but the Browns giving points to ANYONE should be flagged.  I don’t see this line staying at Cle -1 but if you can get it before it becomes a pick em, do it.  Indy is 7-1 SU against the Browns and the Browns are 0-4-1 on the road.  But again, I’m not trusting either teams.  I’m trusting these numbers: Cleveland has gone under 5/6 vs Indy.  Indy is 5/5 at home with the under and 4 out of their last 6 have been under.  This game is more under than Crocodile Dundee.  Wacka, Wacka, Wacka.  (Shoots self in the face)

Take the under 42.5

The sharps are all OVER the Bengals.  They LOVE how they fired their offensive coordinator. I was recently in Cincinnati, the only thing to love about that town is the Reds ballpark followed by leaving that town.  I’m SHOCKED that the sharps love the Bengals so much that the line has dropped from 9 to 7.5.  Did they miss Jordy Nelson practiced in full?  Did they see the Packers get smoked sunday night?  Hope you had the over like I told you to.  Do you think GB is going to rebound, at home where they’re 5-0 ATS?  I do.  GB 8-3 ATS while Cincy is 2-5-1 on the road.  Cincy also 6-12-2 ATS in their last 20.  Head to head numbers? GB 5-2 ATS vs Cincy.  Will Cincy get it together?  Maybe.  But not this week.  Death, taxes, and GB at home.

GB takes a skyline chili influenced dump on Cincy and covers -7.5

Arizona came back to win but not cover against Indy.  I hope you had Indy like I told you to.  I think they’re home with a good D and Dallas D getting gashed by Denver equals an AZ cover but go heavier on the under.  Want a good laugh?  Watch Ezekiel try and tackle.  MANIACAL LAUGH.  Dal is 2-7 in their last 9 ATS.  Dallas went under 11/14 on the road.  AZ 4-1 ATS vs Dal and 4-2 at home when playing Dallas.  The under has hit 4/6 times when these 2 square off.  AZ has had the under hit 9/12 at home.  Tons of numbers to back my predictions of: 

AZ +3 and under 47.

The lock of the week can also be also said as such: Death, taxes, and never Pitt on the road.  7.5 is a lot but I’m not ready to trust Mike Glennon.  Yes, Jordan Howard is playing and practiced in full on friday.  But Pitt has a great defense.  And oh yeah, Mike Glennon. I don’t see the Bears putting up points and I don’t see Pitt lighting up the scoreboard either.  Which is why I’m going with yet again,

The under 44

Some quick hits for other games I MAY take, depending how I do

KC and SD over, the Jets +6, and Oak -3

Last week, 6-1

This week 0-1 (Rams under)

YTD 6-6

Week 16 NFL Picks Against the Spread ATS

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5-4 last week, worst week I’ve had in a while but still over .500 for the week so the streak continues.  But first, Merry xmas and happy hannukah. The picks are coming early as they are a shitload of games tomorrow vs Sunday. Hopefully you have a betting day than Carrie Fisher’s recent plane ride. I have a lot of facts for you but doesn’t meant I’m taking ALL of these games. Check my fb video with my little Aryan offspring tomorrow for the official picks. But I guarantee that the picks I make are from this list.

I’m a student of trends and gut calls. That’s why I’m almost at 63% for the year.  So let’s get down to getting you (and me) freeeeee money!

You know the Jets are garbage and they proved that Sat night against the Dolphins. This week, they face Tom Brady and the Cheatriots. They already locked up a first rd bye. But I don’t see the Jets getting blown out. Jets are 7-0 ATS against the spread vs the pats and  Pats are 12-25 ats when they are favored by double digits. 17 points are wayyyyy too many. Pats will take their foot off the gas by halftime and I don’t care if Ray Lucas is quarterbacking. 

Take the Jets and a mountain of points.

I really like the Colts in Oakland this week. Indy destroyed the Vikes and their playoff chances last week.  Visitors are 15-2-1 ATS in Oakland and the Raiders as a home favorite are 10-24-1. Indy is 4-1 straight up against Oak and they’re getting 3. Shockingly, the Colts still are in the playoff race so this game means something for them.  And surprise, I like the over too. The Indy defense is trash and we know the Oak defense can be suspect. I loved Oak over last week but those assholes fumbled twice in the red zone as well as had to settle for a FG when they were first and goal on the 1. How about cold, hard facts? Indy has hit the over in 6/7 road games. Oak has hit over in 6/7 home games. overwhelming evidence like that has me plunking down cash on both.

Indy plus 3.5 and over 53

The Ravens let the Eagles score 9 points in 10 minutes last week to screw that bet. Then Doug Pederson in his infinite wisdom cuts it to 1 with a TD with :04 left and then goes for 2?  UGHH.  At least I could’ve had a shot in OT.  People shit on Eli for coughing up the ball but Flacco isn’t far behind; if not equal, in this department.  A fumble and pick in 2 different trips in the red zone sure didn’t help last week.  The line is Pitt -5 and that’s just way too high for them. No gut call here, 11/15 of their games have ended in 3 points or less.  Pitt is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 but this train stops cold here. 

Take the silly purple uniforms plus the 5.

The Bears are on fire and Matt Barkley is proving me wrong every week. Bears are 5-0 ats in their last 5 and in comes in Washington off a short week and a complete beating administered by the Carolina Panthers. Bears getting 3 at home after nearly upsetting GB? Why not?

I’m going with the Bears +3

Tampa covered for me last sun night against Dallas. In fact, they almost won. They beat the Saints 2 weeks ago in Tampa. Hence why everyone loved them this week, which scares the hell out of me.  I hate being on the public’s side and I think Saints can win -3 but not confident enough to take them. But here’s another stat: 11/13 of the games between the have resulted in an under. And it’s high this week, 52.

I’m taking the under Tampa 52, yet again.

Didn’t think I would be wagering on these idiots again this season but the time is right. The Rams are home against the Niners and Jeff Fisher is no longer the coach to screw things up with that 80’s porn mustache. The Niners are trash and the Rams came close to knocking off the Seahawks last Thursday. Nine days to prep for a team that hasn’t won since…beating the Rams week 1. I’m inclined to take the Rams -4 but here’s a few more numbers for you: Rams at home have hit the under 6/8 and 5/6 times vs the Niners.

For sure, taking the Under 40 and maybe Rams -4

Seattle has been off for 9 days as well and they’re up against an AZ d that got scorched in New Orleans. Sea on a 2nd straight home game is 22-7 and they’re also 19-4-1 ATS in Dec. the line is 8 and Carson Palmer can poop it up like no other. Here’s another fun fact: az is over 5/5 and 5/5 over on the road.

Probably taking Sea -8 and maybe over 43

Carolina on a short week and when Car and ATL play, 6/7 times are on the under when both teams play.  

I’m going with the under 51.

Packers are 13-1-1 against the spread at home and the Vikings are limping in and without Adrian Peterson.  

I’m taking Green Bay -7

And now, it’s time for my Stone Cold Lock of the Week.  (That’s a big lock)

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A lot of people are liking Miami in buffalo. Do I trust Matt Moore on the road? He destroyed the Jets last week, BFD. I have Landry in my fantasy championship so I hope he does it again. Let’s see him do this for 2 weeks straight. LeSean McCoy has been crushing run defenses like I was crushing puss a single dude. Those were the days, sigh. BUT let’s talk over/under. Buffalo has hit the over in 5 straight home games. Buffalo has hit the over in 9/10 games. And Miami has went over in 7/8. Those numbers are good enough for me.

Take Mia over 42

 

 

NFL Week 10 picks

Last week 2-3-1 after Den and the Browns didn’t show up.  The Titans gave that game away and the Jets fucked me to a push as Fitzpatrick went Fitzpatrick.  Clean slate now, let’s do this!

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Well, not so clean slate.  I took Cle over last week and Flacco and the Cle QBs fucked me but good so I missed that one.  So, starting the week 0-1.

Drew Brees is home and facing a Den offense that couldn’t score against the Raiders.  The Raiders?  That defense is putrid.  Also will mention Derrick Wolfe and both Den CBs are out.  Denver can’t stop the run and if Ingram doesn’t fumble, they can run the ball down their throats.  Did I mention Drew Brees is home?

I’m taking the Saints -3

The Jets are home with a Bryce Petty at QB and the Rams come to town.  Both teams score less than white men with Khloe Kardashian.  This reeks of 17-13.  The under is 39 which means VERY little wriggle room but I just don’t see the scoreboard lighting up unless there is a power surge.

I’m taking the under 39.

Carolina is home against a beleaguered Chiefs who is without Maclin and Justin Houston on defense.  Bet the Chiefs at home, don’t touch them on the road.  Carolina is making a mini run and 3 points isn’t too much to ask for but then again, people who took Carolina said that last week as they got backdoor pushed.

I’m taking Carolina -3

I cannot see Pittsburgh losing this week.  I don’t care Dallas is hotter than Donald Trump’s daughter.  (I’d make her a mix tape, that’s how hot she is).  Pitt had a rough week last week but Ben will be ready to roll.  They’re home, the line is only a FG, and I think the Black and Yellow squad stop those dildos from Dallas.  Dallas is due for a loss and here it is.

I’m taking Pittsburgh -3

San Diego has done nothing but cover spreads as an underdog.  I just don’t know if Miami is going to through a monkey wrench on their “home field advantage.”  SD doesn’t handle success well but here’s what I do know, SD puts up points.  And Miami could put up some points as well so what does that mean?  That’s right, enjoy watching both teams score points.  Jarvis Landry is probably playing as Hunter Henry and Tyrell Williams.  Travis Benjamin is doubtful but I think points can be scored.

I’m taking the over 49.

I hate the Patriots but goddamn, they’ve made me a ton of cash.  I took Brady in 2 leagues and waited out the suspension so I look like a genius.  Pats are off the bye and at home against Seattle.  Buffalo came into Seattle and scored more than everyone thought would.  Seattle’s D isn’t what it used to be.  Flying across country after playing a monday night game and going into New England is about as fun as watching Hillary fake laugh her way through a speech.  Dion Lewis is back as well so more weapons for Tom the Trump supporter to play with.  Bellichek is >60% ATS at home and I plan on riding that money train into the sunset.  

I’m taking NE -7.5

Week 8 NFL picks ATS (against the spread)

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Well, it took 5 weeks but I finally had a losing week as the Falcons shit up a 17 point lead, Fitzpatrick bails out Geno Smith (you read that right), and Minnesota got mauled in Philly.

Seattle played a marathon stinker last sunday night as the game ended in a tie of FGs.  Russell Wilson is banged up but remember the last time I said that, he decimated the Jets.  Whoa, whoa, whoa, stop the clock.  You know who is out for Seattle?  Michael Bennett AND Kam Chancellor.  2 guys that would normally make Drew Brees life hell but not today.  Drew Brees at home AND getting points?  Here’s a stat to make you feel better:  Saints are 28-8 ATS at home after a road loss.  You had me at Drew Brees getting points at home

I’m taking the Saints +2

Raiders have stayed on the east coast after decimating the Jags (then again, who hasn’t?  How Gus Bradley still has a job means he has a considerable amount of blackmail material against the owner).  Derek Carr has been doing not as well this year but well enough to win. Stats?  You got it.  Oak in EST, 9-10 ATS.  Ok, fine.  But Oak this year is 4-0 on the road and TB is 0-4.  Also, Bucs at home are 6-23 straight up, 9-20 ATS.  No Doug Martin and Gerald McCoy is banged up.  Oak is -1, so they just need to pretty much win outright.  Both defenses stink so let’s really capitalize on this.  I’m thinking this has 28-24 written all over it.

I’m taking the Raiders -1 and over 49

I’ve fallen for this several times this year and I’m sure most of you have as well.  The Super Bowl hangover is real.  But goddamnit, if Cam Newton stinks it up after a bye again, you can put the Panthers in the “untrustworthy” category.  Arizona comes to play at 1pm on the east coast so you have that going for you…which is nice.  And they ALSO played 5 quarters in that sunday night stinkaroo.  Are you trusting Carson Palmer on the road?  I’m not

I’m taking Carolina -3

Dallas is off the bye and home.  Dallas has won games because of Elliot, their O line, and D.  Dak Prescott is managing games well; sans the Niners game where he ran all over them, he’s not making huge throws.  Dallas may very well win this game.  BUT…Philly’s D has been shockingly great.  They have some good special teams and yes, Wentz has come a little back to Earth.  Eagles have won their last 3 in Dallas.  And let’s talk ATS, which is nothing like ATM, you perverts.  Dallas is 9 out of their last 34 ATS as a home favorite.  Philly as an underdog vs Dallas is 26-9.  The spread is too high, this game is going to be closer than 5 and Philly can even win outright.

I’m taking Philly +5

I haven’t had one of these in awhile but goddamnit, this is the Lock of the Week.

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We’re back on the Tom Brady, “Fuck you” bandwagon.  I’ll be shocked, shocked, SHOCKED! (Another Mad Dog reference) if Brady doesn’t run them out of their own building.  First meeting this year, Pats were shut out since Michael Dukakis thought he had a chance to win the presidency.  Bellichek isn’t getting swept this year.  And he’s certainly not forgetting the pre-game mini brawl that took place a month ago.  The line has moved up to 6 but I don’t care.  McCoy is probably out, so is Watkins, and Clay is banged up.  Their defense looks like the team North Texas in Necessary Roughness.  Brady and the boys run them out of their own building.

I’m taking the Pats -6

 

NFL Week 6 picks ATS

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5-4-1 last week kids which makes it 2 weeks in a row of being a winner.  Let’s see if we can build on 2 winning weeks:

As the old saying goes, you learn by getting burned.  I learned to NEVER go against Bellichek at home, even when he’s trotting out a 3rd string QB.  Pats are fresh off of a Tom Brady-led thrashing of Cleveland.  Now he’s back home against the Bengals who are fresh off of getting demolished in Dallas.  The Bengals haven’t shown me shit except for they can beat Miami.  Whoopty-fucking-do, so can me and 10 other comedian friends of mine.  Brady’s first home game after deflate gate and if you don’t think that crowd won’t be bloodthirsty like the ones of the Roman Colliseum, you must be wondering how the Massholes got their name.  Tyler Eiffert out for Cincy and Edelman as well as Blount are questionable but I would expect they’re going.  The line is now NE -7.5 and the Pats are 30-10 ATS while at home when the line is <10.  Cincy defense hasn’t been as special as it was in years past and did I mention Tom Brady is still in “Fuck You” mode?

I’m taking the Pats -7.5

Saints are back from the bye and in marches in a wounded Panthers team.  Saints D is worse than white dogshit and the Panthers D ain’t what it was a year ago.  Fun fact: Carolina is 11-4 ATS in NO which makes me take pause.  The line is hovering around 2.5 and if it were to get to 3.5, I may be inclined to take the Saints.  But rule #1 of gambling is don’t be a hero, just win money.  And I think the over of 53.5 is certainly attainable.  

I’m taking Saints over 53

The Browns are bad.  But when you break it down, they’ve lost in double digits to 2 decent teams and nearly beat 2 average teams.  And we all had Miami as the suicide pick with our collective assholes puckered when the Browns lost in OT. The Titans are by no means good.  Browns have a few guys who are questionable but this line is wayyyy high.  I’m talking Snoop Dogg on 4/20 at 4:20 high.  You want evidence?  Fine, Tennessee has covered in FOUR of their last 23 home games.  Now, if you can lock it in now at +7 or above, do it!  It may drop closer to game time.  A lot of people are putting Tennessee as their suicide pick and I didn’t because this screams trap game.  And do you want to put your faith in the Titans?  Not me.  I should say that I’m not loading up on this game and nor should you.

I’m taking the Browns +7

Death, taxes, and Andy Reid off the bye.  Reid is 19-3 SU and 16-6 ATS after the week off and he goes into the Black Hole where the Raiders have been hot.  Raiders D is cold diarrhea but that offense is delightful.  The lines range from 1.5-2.5 and you better believe the Chiefs are playing ball control.  No way then can match scores with Oakland.  But everyone rested up for the Chiefs and they can win by a FG.  The cholos in Oakland go home disappointed as KC pulls out a road win.

I’m taking KC +2

The statement game of the week: Are the Falcons as good as people are starting to think?  I think they’re good but this is the ultimate test.  Russell Wilson destroyed the Jets secondary with a gimpy leg and now he’s had a bye to rest up.  Let’s also add that the Hawks are home.  Now, the Falcons went into Denver and just manhandled that vaunted Denver D.  But I think Sea off the bye and home is too much for the Falcons.  The line is a manageable -6 and let’s remember we’re a short memory away from Matt Ryan throwing picks like Slash at the end of a concert.  Take a moment, you’ll get that joke.

I’m taking Sea -6

If you took Andrew Luck in fantasy, that sucks to be you.  He’s been sacked 20 times already in 5 games.  Lamar Miller HAS to break out sometime and no better time than against an awful Indy D who’s allowing a robust 29.6 a game.  Indy D gives it up more than a teenage runaway in a bus stop bathroom.  2 more fun facts: Indy is 0-3 ATS on the road this year.  Hou is 3-0 ATS when at home.  

I’m taking Hou -3