NFL picks week 6 ATS

3-3-1 last week so another week of .500. Not winning money, just losing vigs. But good news is no losing weeks all season. 17-10-1 for the year gives me a 63% success rate so very much still in the black. And I loved our latest episode photo of Point Break on Gutting the Sacred Cow podcast that I had to add it here, make sure you give it a listen and subscribe!

People are loving TB this year and I want you to point out a good win they’ve had. They got lucky against a bad Chargers team and just lost to Nick Foles. But the Packers have done nothing but make me money this year. They’re GB-9-3-2 following a bye.  GB 5-1 ATS, 10-1 SU of late and 5-1 SU on road.  GB 5-1 ATS in last 6 vs NFC south and 5-1 ATS in October.  TB 2-4 ATS, 1-5 ATS in last 6 vs NFC north.  TB 0-5 ATS in October.

Taking GB on the money line as the line is -1. Why not pay a few dollars more to get it at a pick em? 

Did I call the Browns last week or what? Now the Colts looked like pureed dog shit against them. You know they’re going to be pissed and thankfully, they get a cupcake Bengals team. Some stats? Sure. Colts 7-0 ATS before a bye.  Indy 13-3 SU at home, 5-2 in October.  Cincy 3-16-1 SU last 20, 4-9 SU against Indy and 1-8 SU in Indy.  0-14-1 SU on the road.  But you know what’s a great idea? Teasing the Colts down to below a FG. So here’s the first leg of the teaser.

Second half of the teaser: Houston gives up a lot of points and they can also put up points. Hou Over 4/6 of late, Tenn 4/5 over.  7/8 over at home for Tenn.  Tannehill fresh off a curb stomping of the Bills, they’ll put up points early on Hou. And Houston will be airing it out to chase points so there’s the second leg of the teaser.

Colts -2 and Hou over 47.5 

Baker has bruised ribs and can’t play fast.  Cle 4-2 ATS in Pitt but 3-16-1 SU in Pitt.  Cle 1-7 ATS on road, 0-10 in Pitt.  Cle 1-4 vs AFC and 2-4 SU in AFC north.  Pitt 4-1 SU, 7-1 SU at home.  8-1-1 ATS in October. Pittsburgh is having an all-world start, best since the 70’s when they won all those Superbowls. No jokes, just take the Steelers.

Pitt -3.5

I fucked up and locked in 2 different teasers with the Colts. So that’s the first half of the teaser. The second half, Denver Broncos are 3-7 SU in NE, 3-9 on road, 0-5 ATS in NE.  2-6 SU vs AFC east.  No Noah Fant and no Melvin Gordon for the Broncos. Pats have Cam and Gilmore back.  17-3 SU at home, 6-1 ATS in October. I would rather try to paint Mohammed in a French magazine than bet against Bellichick with 2 weeks to prepare against a team with 2 shitty QBs and a middle of the road third one. And we’re teasing the Pats down to a key number; although I think they cunt punt them without the 6 points we’re getting from the teaser.

Indy -2 and Patriots -3

The Jets are worse than having to sit in Lincoln tunnel traffic with your stomach having the diarrhea gurgles. Jets 0-5 ATS and SU, 0-4-1 ATS and 1-4 SU vs Miami.  Jets 3-14 SU on road and 1-4 vs AFC East.  Miami 5-2 ATS of late, 5-1 against AFC, 5-0 ATS in week 6.

Arizona 4-1 ATS and SU in Dallas.  But 2-14 SU in Dallas.  Dallas 0-5 ATS and 1-6 ATS vs NFC west. Now you’re probably saying, “holy shit, you’re betting on the soul less ginger known as Andy Dalton?” Yep. Because they’re going to feed Zeke like they should’ve been done all year. And Arizona fresh off a blowout win against the Jets now have to fly back home and then Dallas? I don’t think Dallas gets blown out and with the teaser, it’s a key number for Red Riding Hood.

Miami -3.5 and Dallas +7

SF has been bad but they’re getting people back on the field.  They’re 13-4 SU against NFC, 5-2 vs NFC west.  Yes, Niners are 2-5 ATS at home but Rams mightily struggle here, 3-6 SU and ATS in SF. Niners need this game to stay entrenched in the wild card race and I think they keep it close, maybe even win. Rams have been traveling all over the place and despite my misstep picking against them last week; I think it’s gotta catch up to them sometime and this is it.

Jim Harbaugh is the Bobby Bowden from the FSU days in the 90’s. He just runs up those scores without give .5 fucks. Bal 12-3-1 ATS in 16, 16-2 SU.  4-2 ATS against Philly. 8-0 SU on road, 7-0 vs NFC.  Philly 1-5 ATS and 1-4-1 SU.  1-4 vs AFC. Philly showed some fight against Pitt but in true Philly fashion, gagged it up like a bulimic after eating a cheesesteak at Geno’s. Don’t worry, Carson Wentz will still put up his 2-3 picks this game and the Ravens will coast. They’ll have an easier time beating the Eagles than going home and dodging bullets in Baltimore.

Bal -3.5 and Niners +8.5

NFL Week 4 picks ATS

4-1 last week. Detroit 1h, winner. Buffalo, winner. Pats and Cincy over teaser, winner. I took Dallas/TB teaser after the Giants looked as useless and lost as Chris Matthews did at the debate the other night. 11-4 on the year and let’s continue the good vibes.

The Bills got a monster gift from the refs after blowing a 20 point lead late. I guess McDermott is doing his best Atlanta Falcons impression but thankfully didn’t commit to the bit. Now the Bills are in Vegas where apparently, they’re giving Groupons to the likes of Tekashi 69 fans to stay at high end hotels. It truly has become a garbage people fly trap. Now, the Raiders are without 2 WRs, their #1 draft pick CB, banged up Jacobs. The all time stats don’t back up this play but the Bills are not banged up but they’re playing a banged up team. Raiders 0-5-1 vs AFC east and 3-8 ATS in October. Oakland beat the Panthers and Saints who aren’t excacly setting the world on fire. Bills laying less than a TD on the road is a gift so might as well grab them before the luxury tax hits you.

Bills -3

This has been beaten over the head by all the sharps but it bears repeating. Seattle’s pass rush and pass defense is one big prolapsed anus. Now they’re making the longest flight possible and playing in Florida heat after going to the wire against Dallas (ahem, a winner last week). Fitzpatrick is the king of backdoors next to Lieutenant Proctor and Captain Harris at the Blue Oyster. Also, 3 extra days to rest and plan after they smoked the Jags. Miami 4-1 ATS of late, 5-1 SU home vs Seattle, and 4-2 in October. Seattle 1-6 ATS against Miami. Both teams are putting up massive points: Seattle has gone over 4/5, 12/16 vs AFC, and 7/8 vs AFC east. Miami has gone over 7/10, 5/5 at home, 4/6 vs NFC west. So why the hell not make things easier on us, especially with the over

Teasing Miami +12 and over 48

Drew Brees is averaging the 5 yds per pass attempt. Why? Because no Michael Thomas or Drew Brees doesn’t have the arm strength? Maybe. But The Saints are slow starters AND have 6 key starters OUT. Thomas, Cook, BOTH STARTING CBs, a guard and DE. I think the Lions got the monkey off their back with the win and now at home. Detroit catching 3 in the first half and I think they do so with ease again this week.

Detroit +3 1H

Cincinnati tying the Eagles was just dandy, watching that insanely overrated team tie the Bengals. 5 quarters played takes a toll and now they get the Jags who also have 3 extra days to prep. I say the Bengals put up a better show than their fellow city counterparts, the Reds, but I don’t think they win or even cover. Some stats, why not? Jags 4-2 ATS of late, 11-5 SU against Cincy, 4-1 ATS against AFC and 9-0-1 against AFC north. Cincy 2-17-1 SU of late and 2-7 SU at home, 3-6 ATS against AFC south, and 1-6 in October. Bengals shouldn’t be giving anyone points. Line is now Cincy -2.5 so you could consider taking them now but

I got the Jags +3

Injuries are afoot in TB. Godwin and Fournette out, Scotty Miller is also in danger of missing the game. Mike Williams and Bryan Bulaga are out for the Chargers. Chargers D and Tampa D both playing well; Chargers haven’t allowed more than 21 points all year and TB hasn’t allowed more than 17 in the last 2 weeks. Chargers 6-3 ATS against TB, 5-1 SU against TB. TB SU 1-9 in October. TB under 4/6, The under is also in play; Chargers have hit the under in 4/5, 4/5 against NFC, I think the Chargers keep it close enough to cover but again, let’s even help ourselves out even more.

Teasing Chargers +13 and under 49

Kansas City and the Pats has been postponed to hopefully Tuesday. I’m too tired to bother with a Cover joke for Cam. Lucky for me, I bet it Friday night as part of a teaser, down to 1 along with GB-1. Last line I saw, KC is now -11.5, definitely teaser territory as well as it gets you under 7. Pats are 2-7 SU in KC, 3-6 ATS. KC 11-1 ATS, 10-0 SU, 8-0 ATS at home. And now no Cam? KC boat races the shit out them.

Falcons are 4-2 ATS against GB and 5-0 ATS on road, 6-1 ATS in GB. Yeah but still. Falcons have been more demoralized than a freshman after her first fraternity gang bang in their last 2 games; blowing 20 its leads twice in 2 weeks. GB 4-1 ATS, 9-1 SU, 7-0 SU at home. GB also 5-1 SU in october and 4-1 ATS in week 4. Give me the team that’s just steamrolling the piss out of everyone at home vs the team who’s been cunt punted the last 2 weeks. And I’m only laying 1? Please.

KC -1 and GB in a teaser

NFL Week 3 ATS picks 9/27/20

Proper Vegas attire in 2020

No article last week as I was in Vegas so that’s why you should be following me on social media and you would’ve seen me go 3-1 last week. I had Detroit over, KC/Pitt teaser, AZ/Buffalo teaser, and the Jets under. The goddamn Jets broke us when Darnold rolls out of a sack and throws a TD with less than a minute left in the game. 3-1 last week, 3-2 week 1 which puts me at a robust 6-3 for the year, 66% ATS.

I apologize for the lack of numbers with these handicaps as I lost all my screenshots from oddshark when I had to fix my work iPad. Odds shark is censored in Jersey because they advertise gambling sites not based in Jersey. You pinko commie bastards. So I’m going on memory why I took these games without my usual stats. I know I’ll sound like my buddy Jeff Paul who makes his weekly pick on some horseshit logic but I promise, this won’t happen again.

The Lions stink. Blowing 2 first half leads turned into 2 losses and I have these cunts as an over for the year. Now they’re in AZ who is hot as a pistol. But I think Patricia knows his ass is on the line. And as I said, Detroit has come out firing in both first halves of their games. So I think Detroit grabs an early lead or at WORST, is hanging tough at the end of the half. And Stafford has Golliday back this week. So why not take…

Detroit +3.5 FIRST HALF. That extra hook helps but I truly think Detroit is up at halftime.

San Francisco 49ers defensive line has TWO STARTERS OUT. Cluster injuries on the line plus no Sherman and their starting CB. Oh yeah, Garoppolo, Kittle, and Mostert are also OUT. They’re throwing more shit out there on defense than the sidewalks of San Fran. I know my Giants stink this year but goddamnit, now is the time for a win. They’re home and almost beat the Bears last week if it weren’t for a horseshit offensive PI call. Yes, I know Barkley and Sheppard are out. If the Giants can’t beat the Niners when they’re THAT beat up, there’s a problem. But remember, this is the Giants and as Pesci said in Goodfellas, they can fuck up a cup of coffee.

So let’s tease them up to +9.5 and to find someone else to tease…

Dallas is in Seattle and as good as Seattle looks on offense, they look putrid on defense. They’re among the worst in pass rush and pass defense. Dallas and Seattle off emotional wins so that cancels out. No 12th man to screw with Dak getting the yips. I’m not betting against Russ but I’m betting on Dallas NOT getting blown out. They’ll lose but not by double digits and again, that Seattle pass D is more atrocious the stench that came from the CHAZ Zone in Seattle.

Dallas +11 is the second leg of the teaser.

Bellichick off the bye; blah, blah, blah is something like 68% ATS. Playing the Raiders at home, 1pm, after playing Monday night. Jacobs banged up a bit and Ruggs is out. I know that the center for the Pats is out which hurts but I think the Pats do enough to win. Yes, the line is -6.5 but not for me because I…

Teased the Pats down to -.5. Why leave the backdoor open?

Who to tease with now? Why not go with Backdoor Burrow in Philly? I think Cincy can cover that but I wouldn’t be surprised that Philly puts it together and blows them out. But what I do see happening today are points. Burrow can easily air it out against a shitty Philly secondary and if Carson Wentz stops throwing the ball to the other team, they can score as well. I know Cincy has the WORST ranked run defense and Philly will be inclined to expose them there.

But when I can take the over down to 41.5, I’ll do that easily thinking both teams can put up 21 apiece.

Rams smoked Philly last week (well done. Nothing sending those assholes down the drain and calling for Wentz’s head) and flew home. Why fly back? Stay east! Well, now they have to come back and play a white hot Buffalo. Here’s a stat: Buffalo has outscored their opponents in the first halves of their games something like 52-17. Again, lost my screenshots. They’re playing well at home and the Rams are without Akers, their RB. You’re laying less than a FG, the line is now 1.5. I got it at -2.5 last night so sharp money must have poured in on the Rams this morning. Not as confident on this pick now but we’ll see.

Buffalo -2.5

Last pick of the week: I’m FLOORED that Green Bay and KC are getting 3 or more on the road in empty stadiums. Those are some sexy numbers but here’s what sexier, teaser time again. Show me a world that GB (admittedly, I was wrong about Rodgers stinking this year, he’s top 5) and KC lose, let alone by more than a TD.

Teasing GB to +9 and KC +9.5

Week 1 NFL picks ATS

Can you smell it? It’s not what the Rock is cooking, it’s FREEEEEEE money! And you better believe I’m excited to get started on my second income season. 62% ATS last year so let’s pick up right where we left off. And if you want to follow my team totals for the year, here there are:

Eagles under 9.5

Lions over 7

Jets under 6

I thought I put in the Giants under 6 but apparently, I didn’t.

Bears under 8

Falcons over 7.5

Thursday night was opening kickoff and the Cookie Monster and I teased the Chiefs down to 3 and the over down to 48.5. Thank god I teased the over down as you would’ve lost by .5 So 1-0 to start the season, here we go:

The Seahawks have started off slow BIG time in recent years: see last year when I had them in a teaser down to -3 at home against the Bengals…and THEY DIDN’T COVER. Just did some research and yep, Sea 0-4-1 ATS in week 1 games. Oh yeah, the offensive and d lines for Seat lost a lot of people this off season. And they fly cross country, with masks on due to covid, and play a 1pm (10a west coast). Sea 1-4 ATS in last 6 and 1-4 against ATL. Matt Ryan 5-2 against Pete Caroll, rating over 100. 16 TDs 4 INTs is 6/8 and last 4. Top 5 offense at home. ATL 4-1 ATS and SU in last 5. 6-2 vs NFC and 10-2 vs NFC west. Falcons are getting 2.5 at home? Sign me up…for another teaser! Give me the Falcons plus 8.5 at home and with all the stats in the world backing up the Falcons? Even if they’re down by double digits late (I think they can even win), 8.5 is EASILY backdoor able. I just made that word up unless Sam Champion and Mike Piazza already coined it. So what else to tease it with…

The New York Squatters are going to be bad this year. No one on offense scares you and they traded away Jamal Adams to Seattle. They’re going up to Buffalo and off the bat, the Jets are 4-16 SU on road. 3-10 ATS against AFC east, 0-6 SU in September. Bills 4-2 ATS in september, 11-4 ATS week 1, 10-5 SU on sundays, and 8-1 SU in last 9 as favorite. This game is going to be a snoozer and as much as the Jets want retribution, they’re not going to find it in the land of fans who jump through tables and awful accents.. Second half of the teaser, Bills -.5 so a pick em.

The Rams open up their new stadium to no one in particular. However, the Rams start off on FIRE. McVay in season openers 3-0, averaging 36 points. Dallas 7 INTS last year, not getting much pressure on the QB to make bad decisions. Rams are 13-6-1 ATS, 12-4 SU in last 16 at home, 12-3-1 against NFC. 8-1 SU in september, 4-1 ATS in week 1. Wow. New coach for Dallas as well so unfamiliairty added to those stats equals a problem for Dallas. Dallas 4-2 SU and ATS against the rams. BUT 2-5 SU on the road and 1-4 against NFC west. I like the Rams at +3 but you know what’s even better? The Rams +9! And what shall I tease it with? Perhaps another near lock, the over. Dallas has gone over in 13/19, 5/6 over against the Rams, 6/7 vs NFC, Rams 4/6 over, 5/6 home over against Dal, 5/6 over against NFC East.

Arizona 4-0-1 ATS against SF, 4-1 SU in SF, 8-2 SU of their last 10. You might be saying those are some key stats. And would you look at that, Arizona is getting 8? But wow, that’s -140 to take Az! Orrrrrrr, you could do what I did and that’s take Arizona to +13 IN ANOTHER TEASER. And that’s how you avoid the higher vigs on a game you like, tease it and another game you like to get to the usual -110. Arizona covers a ton against SF plus SF with no real WR. Deebo Samuel is a question mark as is Aiyuk. The only pass catcher is Kittle and then they have their running game. Bad air quality also due to California fires and homeless peoples’ shit on the sidewalks keeps this thing within 2 scores.

Who to tease this game with? Easy one. I’ve loved this game since the schedule was announced. My NY Giants have a rookie head coach and a shaky o line and defense. Pittsburgh comes to town with a healthy Rothliesberger and solid defense. In what world do the Giants win, let alone cover, with no training camp games nor a rookie head coach with zero HC experience against Tomlin who runs a well oiled machine sans the playoffs? Pitt 4-2 SU against Giants and 4-2 SU in NY. Pitt 7-1 ATS against NFC. Giants 4-2 ATS in last 6 but 2-10 SU in last 12 and 1-5 ATS at home. Also 1-5 SU agains AFC. Second half of teaser, Pitt teased down to pick em.

New Orleans in an empty dome is a welcome sign for visitors. And would you look at that; everyone’s newest darling comes a knocking, Brady and the Bucs. You think Brady ever snuck Giselle down to the 50 yard line, had his way with her while making neighing sounds while yelling “giddyup” in every stadium he played? TB has gone over 12/14, 6/7 on the road over, 10/10 over vs NFC. Over 4/5 playing each other. Saints over 5/7 in NFC south as well as 12/18 in NO in September. Mike Evans is questionable going into this game but even in the rare case he doesn’t go, they still have a ton of weapons. Kamara got his extension so he’ll be running with $ falling out of his pocket. It’s week 1 and Brees’s last hurray, plus his arm hasn’t turned to wet fettuccine yet so get ready for points. And I got the total at 48.5, anything below 50 with these two going at it is a fucking blue light special bargain. Saints over 48.5

NFL Week 17 ATS Picks

Indulge me for a second.  How does talent go unrecognized for so long?  It took Breaking Bad at LEAST 5 pitches before it was made.  Do you know who pass on the role for Walter White?  John Cusack and Ferris Bueller himself.  So if it took Vince Gilligan this long to get the greatest show ever made passed, it’s going to take a long time for me to get noticed for my penchant of making picks.  And to see more of that, check out Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber on Youtube/Facebook.  

Here’s the link: 

Yeah, I’m ABSOLUTELY KILLING IT.  4-1 last week, 16-4 in 3 weeks, and 62/105 for the year.  Which translates to an insane 59% for the season.  52.5% is break even but we’re going to finish wayyy above that.  I’d love to get over 60% for the year as well as pay off this Grand Cayman trip.  Week 17 is always tricky with figuring out who is going to rest starters.  So here we go!

Lock of the week:

No shame in getting numbers to where you want them.  Houston is gunning for that sexy ass 2 seed and they need to win to have a shot at it.  Lamar Miller should be back for the Texans.  Black Bortles is back, yuck.  And he’s on the road?  Double yuck.  Jax is 2-7-2 ATS of late, 2-9 SU, 1-4-1 ATS on the road, 2-7 SU against Hou, 2-6 SU in Houston.  Houston is 5-1 SU at home, 6-2 SU at home vs Jacksonville.  Do you think Jacksonville is gonna give it their all on the road?  And against a team who wants that #2 seed?  I don’t. 

We’re teasing the Texans down to .5 so it’s a pick em.

Second half of the teaser.  Let’s pick against another team who is purely on, “I don’t give a fuck” street.  The Lions are giving as much an effort as I would trying to stop Emily Rajakowski putting her privates on mine.  Green Bay has won 2 straight after firing Mike McCarthy, who looks like he wears flip flops and socks with a backwards hat and Oakleys on a Carribbean island.  GB 4-2 ATS at home of late.  Now the Lions and the NFL’s worst pass defense come into Lambeau where they’ve been manhandled worse than anyone dating Kareem Hunt’s.  Det of late is 3-6 ATS, 5-2 on the road ATS.  More importantly, the Lions are 7-16-2 in GB, 2-23 SU in GB.  Matt Stafford on the road stinks like Joy Behar’s hoo-hah.  He was rested in the 4th quarter of last week’s game with a balky back.  He may have the same happen to him again if this game starts to get out of hand or may not even start at all.

Teasing the Packers down to -2

New OC in Minnesota loves running the ball.  That under hit with relative ease last week although Kyle Rudolph catching that hail mary at the end of the first half sent a shiver up my butthole.  The Bears come into town, also needing a win to go for the #2 seed.  They’re not going to be showing off anything to the Vikings as they may play each other next week if the Bears don’t get the 2 seed.  I don’t see Trubisky running it up on the road and no Allen Robinson (no big deal, he sucked this year for those who had him in fantasy) for the Bears.  Minnesota needs the game to make the playoffs but I really see this as a defensive game and numbers back up this statement.  Vikings under of late, 4/5 and 8/11 at home.  Bears on the road, not exactly lighting it up either.  Bears 4/5 under of late, 10/14 vs Minnesota, and 5/7 in Minnesota.  

Minnesota under 40.5

Nothing like hedging a bet, right?  I have the Bills under 6 wins for the year.  They’re currently at 5 so I’ll push if they win.  So let’s capitalize on a game where they’re going to most likely take care of business at home.  In come the Dolphins who are just as sloppy as a West Virginia family at an OK Corral.  Miami is 1-5 ATS on the road, 1-5 in Buffalo.  Buffalo is going to be colder than Lena Dunham’s other side of the bed.  Miami got deal their hopes destroyed last week and do you think they’re rallying on the road, in the cold?  I sure don’t.  Their pass defense is atrocious and is the worst when it comes to giving up big plays.  Allan is throwing the ball so that falls right into our favor.  The line is currently 5.5 but I took this last night when 6 was the number.

So I teased the Bills down to a pick em.  

Goddamnit anyway, it looks like the unthinkable has a chance to occur again.  Nick Foles and his supposedly immense penis are making Eagle fans believe that they can do the unthinkable again.  No, not class up that garbage city they play in.  If Philly wins, they could likely get in with a little help.  Now they’re going to Washington who just cut DJ Swearinger.  The Redskins ship is sinking, they have one of the worst run defenses, and the Eagle fans will infest this place Alabama fans infest cruise ships to the Bahamas.

Second half of the teaser, Eagles down to -1

As I mentioned, week 17 has a lot of teams looking to rest or keep key players out of harms way.  But they still need them to perform to build a big enough lead or win outright.  Exhibit A: The Kansas City Chiefs are home after a loss in Seattle against the Raiders.  After Gruden’s press conference Monday night; he said, “I’m glad to end the season with a win.”  Umm Jon, there’s still another game left.  Oakland is on a short week.  Also, I expect KC to roll against them but cover in the end and possibly resting starters with a shit defense?  Don’t know about that.

Take Chiefs first half -7.5

Let’s continue that trend with another team in the playoff hunt.  The Chargers are home against the recently pasted Broncos.  Vance Joseph has as good of a chance of having a job on Tuesday as well as I do laughing at a Tyler Perry film.  Again, Denver is on the road after a short week.  No Phillip Lindsay either, he just went on IR.  Eekler is back for Are the Chargers covering for the full game if they see the Chiefs are running away with their game?  Probably not.  They’ll yank their key guys and take that 5 or 6 seed.  So let’s bank on the max effort for the Chargers early.

Take the Chargers first half -3.5

Last game of the slate for me.  Andrew Luck has yet to lose to the Titans.  They’re in a must win scenario too.  Wait, Andrew Luck goes against either a banged up Mariota who has the same amount of feeling in his body as a stroke victim?  Or even (crossing my fingers) Blaine Gabbert?  No Orakpo for the Titans on d either.  Colts are 11-3 ATS playing Tennessee and 4-2 ATS in Tennessee.  Titans are 7-3 ATS and 7-1 SU at home but I repeat, Andrew Luck has never lost to the Titans.  And they’re on fire of late, especially when coming back from down 10 to the Giants last week. 

Grab the Colts -3

Week 16 NFL Picks ATS

58-42 for the year, 58%.  Ya hear me?  I HEAR YA!
Lock of the week:
Dallas got smoked by the Colts (one of my top bets last week, thank you). Now they’re home against TB who are 5-9-2 ATS.  They’re 2-4 ATS in Dallas and 1-10 SU in Dallas.  Dallas 5-1 ATS of late, 4-1 ATS at home.  If I’m using SU facts, you know what that means.  Yep, it’s teaser time.  
I teased Dallas down to -1 which makes them a virtual pick ’em.
Second half of the teaser involves the wounded ducks up in Foxboro.  The Pats definitely don’t look themselves as Brady really showed his age and a few mental lapses in Pittsburgh last week.  Now they’re home in a must win against the Bills.  When was the last time the Pats blew anyone out?  9/30 against the Dolphins, 38-7.  They’ve won by no more than 2 TDs in their other games.  No Josh Gordon, that’s a problem.  Gronk is definitely running around like Forest Gump with leg braces. Josh Allen looks the opposite as the Pats give up 5 YPC.  Pats are 2-3-1 at home against the Bills, too big of a number and the Pats D can get backdoored easily.
I’m teasing the Bills up to +19, I just don’t see the Pats blowing them out.  
Chargers are “home” after a 10 day layoff and get the Ravens who are fighting like hell for a playoff spot.  The Bal D has done a bang up job, only allowing 58% of completed passes and 3.6% passes into TD.  With Lamar Jackson as QB, they average 36 min TOP.  What does that mean?  A lot of clock run off.  Ravens have faced some AWFUL run defenses which gave them the edge to control clock, 5 out of the 6 in the league.  Short week for the Ravens as well.  Bal have gone under 8/12 and 4/6 on the road.  Chargers have gone under 4/5 at home.  
Chargers under 43.5
Dalvin Cook blew up last week like I said he would.  And now he gets a chance to run against the diarrhea defense of the Lions.  Minnesota under 5/7 of late, 4/5 vs Detroit.  Did anyone see Matt Stafford light it up last week?  Said by NO ONE this season.  They’re home but that doesn’t give a tickle in the banana hammock.  Lions are 5/6 under at home, 5/5 of late.  
Vikings under 42.5
Goff stinks on the road, 7 road games he has 7 TDs and 7 passes.  Cardinals have allowed 6th fewest points to RBs.  Gurley is banged up but we all know the way to take out the Cardinals is on the ground.  What does that mean?  Running=clock killing.  Do you see the Cardinals scoring?  I don’t.  They have scored 21 points ONCE in 5 games, 20 points 2 in two.  The last 2 weeks, they’ve combined for 17 points.  Against the Lions and Falcons.  I’ll let that sink in.  Cardinals are 7/9 under at home as well.  The Rams are an under machine of late, 4/5. 4/6 playing Arizona.  
Arizona under 44.5
Don’t look now but the Niners have won 2 straight.  They have the Bears coming to town after a ton of partying since they’ve locked up division.  I think even though the Bears still need the game for the #2 seed, this is still a trap game.  Bears offense on the road, #29. Niners defense at home #13.   Bears are 5-13 ATS vs SF, 1-8 in SF.  Niners are 4-2 ATS playing the Bears, 8-1 ATS and SU vs the Bears.  Here’s another case of the number being right.
Niners +4
Giants just got shutout at home, Indy just pitched a shutout against Dallas.  Giants will bounce back and 10 points is just too many.  Giants are ATS undefeated on the road. 5-0, and 4-1-1 of late ATS.
Giants +10
I’m also considering Arizona +14.5

NFL week 12 picks ATS

There are moments in your life where you catch such fire, you feel like an immortal Highlander.  You CAN’T lose.  You’re playing blackjack and have a 5 way split, all with double downs.  The dealer busts.  EUPHORIA.  You’re playing poker and get hit the nut flush on the river and your opponent shoves all in.  SPIKE OF ADRENALINE.  You can’t call fast enough.  You’re in a Vegas club, meet a 10, and she can’t even wait to get back to your room…she wants to fuck in the elevator.  YOU CAN’T SEND OUT A BRAGGING GROUP TEXT TO YOUR BUDDIES FAST ENOUGH.  Then, like Robert DeNiro tells Al Pacino in the amazing film, Heat.  “There’s a flip side to this coin.”  You’re at that same blackjack table, draw to 19, and the dealer draws 7 to 21.  COLD PANG OF DESPAIR.  You’re at that same poker table, hit a straight, and shove all in.  As you announce straight, your opponent says, “To what?” And then shows the higher straight.  ACHING FEELING IN THE BALLS.  You’re in that same club in Vegas, meet a 7 in a club, go back to your room and wake up the following morning and then remember how you raw dogged.  Oh yeah what were those mysterious bumps down there??  COLD SHIVERS UP YOUR BUTTHOLE.

And that’s what the last 2 weeks have been for me.  5-10 in the last 2 weeks, including last night’s New Orleans under 60 win.  Now, I’m 40-34 for 54% YTD.  Jesus Christ, I was 59% a few weeks ago at a tally of 35-24.  

Let’s see if we can get off the slide and so far, we’re looking good at a 1-0 start for the week. BTW, go out right now and get a New Orleans Saints to win the Super Bowl at +250.  Lowest number on the board for the sole reason of THEY’RE GOING TO WIN THE SUPERBOWL.  Drew Brees is going to go out on top and he has an alright defense for once.  No one is coming into that dome and knocking them off.  

Week 12, here we go.  Diiiiiicks out.

Lock of the week is:

I know I said on Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber this week (Yep, I’ll shoehorn a plug in for my show.) 

that my lock of the week is the Carolina over 46.5.  I still kind of like the call but I like Carolina -3 a lot more.  Why?  Carolina is 14th against the run but 24th against the pass.  Panthers are the 3rd best running team in the NFL.  Seattle defense isn’t that great against the run, 20th in the NFL but 6th vs the pass.  So logic dictates that Carolina is going to be running the ball more, therefore eating more clock up.  Also, this is the typical “west coast team flying to play a 1pm game.”  The Seahawks have gone 5/6 under of late and Seattle plays to the under 5/6 in Carolina.  More stats? Sure, you’re not paying for this curated info.  Seattle is 2-4 ATS in Carolina, 1-3-1 against Carolina.  And at home, Carolina is a whole new animal, 4-1 ATS.  I could still make an argument for the O/U as it’s low-ish at 47.5 but I feel more comfortable putting my money on (and I did) with

Taking Carolina -3

The Giants under was one of the 5 losses I had.  And who could blame me?  When was the last time the Giants dropped 30 on anyone?  When Obama was president.  When it was still ok to be a straight white guy.  When you could fly on an airplane without getting your ass whooped or your pets killed.  Don’t look now but that’s 2 straight overs for the Giants.  Scored 38 and 27 points in their last 2 and now facing a completely decimated Eagles secondary?  Sign me up.  Barkley almost had 100 rushing on top of his over 100 receiving.  Beckham with 3 TDs in his last 2 games.  The Eagles just finished wiping the Saints’s jizz off from all over their asses from last Sunday.  The only problem is that Philly has always been a house of horrors for the Giants.  Giants are 1-5 SU in Philly, 2-4 ATS.  Good news: Giants are 5/5 over against Garbage Town, USA.  Although they’re 6/8 under in Philly and Philly itself is 4/5 under, I think they put up points.  And 47 is low for today’s NFL.  Doesn’t take a Gootee to figure out where this is going:

Giants over 47.  And you also may want to invest in the Giants team total and go over that.  That Eagles D is DECIMATED. Also took Barkley OVER 53.5 receiving yds and Giants team total OVER 21.5

Like a woman who goes home with a dude after grinding on him for 2 hours in Vegas, I don’t normally do this.  I haven’t taken a teaser in EASILY 7 years but good ol’ Steve Fezzik makes a great point.  No better way to take 2 teams that are laying 7 or 7.5 points with a 6 point swing and get them down to less than a FG. I took Dallas down to -1 and they covered with ease.  Second half of the teaser, Indy -1.5  Who’s hotter than Andrew Luck right now?  Emily Ratajkowski.  Goddamn, she could wear a Queen Victoria dress as well as a newspaper boy hat while sporting a Mike Tyson face tattoo.  I’d still be harder than a shark’s tooth.  Miami is 1-9 ATS on the road, 2-5 of late.  Fins are 2-4 playing Indy but oddly enough, they’re 7-1 in the land of Applebees VIPs.  But the Dolphins are getting Tannehill back and who can figure out if that’s a good thing or a bad thing?  The Dolphins have Davante Parker and Danny Amendola listed as questionable, making Kenny Stills the only healthy receiver.  Colts are 4-1 SU of late and 4-2 SU at home.  I’m only laying 1.5 with the teaser so that’s as SU as you can get.  

Teased Dallas to -1 and Indy to -1.5

Another team that completely singed my scrotum last week was the Minnesota Vikings.  God, this team has been all over the place this year and you may be wondering when is the safe time to bet them.  My answer?  Definitely not in the playoffs but I think this Sunday is a good time.  Here’s why.  They just got smoked by a division rival who’s on the way up and in comes another division rival who is on the way down.  Green Bay is 10.5 points WORSE on the road than home, which makes them #32 in the NFL, THE WORST IN THE LEAGUE.  Let’s also mention that Aaron Rodgers is below .500 on the road.  Lastly, it’s blatantly obvious that the Packers are quitting on McCarthy and he may not make it till the end of the year.  If they lose this week, he could be gone monday.  And I bet Seattle last week home against the Pack, laying 2.5 points.  The number closed at 3 and ended up pushing.  And that’s why it’s perfectly ok to take a number IMMEDIATELY if you like it instead of waiting till Sunday.  Vikings at home: 36-16-2 ATS under Mike Zimmer and and even bigger sample size, 47-23 ATS at home.   Bottom line, Vikings are 72% ATS at home, the second best team at home ATS is the Patriots at 56%.  One more oddball stat: Vikings are 36-15-1 on field turf.  I’m sure they have a stat about playing on a cross bluegrass, Kentucky bluegrass, featherbed bent, and northern California sinsemilla.  BANG!  Another Caddyshack reference makes the column.  

Jump on the Vikings -3 as it’s probably headed back to -3.5

And now for words that usually don’t make people money.  I like the Buffalo Bills this week.  I’ll hold for laughter.  Done?  One more?  Sure, go ahead, I need to pee anyway.  Ok, I’m back.  You’re good?  Cool.  Last time we saw the Bills, they completely set ablaze my 1st half under 17.5 bet at the Jets 2 weeks ago.  Now they’re home, after a bye, against a team who completely dominated the Steelers for 57:30 and then lost late.  They’ve lost 5 straight.  A warm weather team going up to play inside one of the coldest places, Lena Dunham’s vagina.  Jax 0-3-2 of late ATS, 3-5-1 on the road.  Blake Bortles (second best gay porno name) is just putrid on the road, 5 TDs and 6 INTs.  Jax averaging 17 PPG on the road.  So we know they can’t pass, what about Fournette being back?  Whoopedy-doo.  Buffalo is the 10th best rushing D in the NFL and the 3rd best in the last 3 weeks.  I love big defenses getting points at home.  Why is Jacksonsville giving a shit about this game?  No one else will…except me and the others who bet…

Buffalo +3

NFL Wild Card Weekend 2018 Picks ATS

5-2 last week so back on the winning track for your favorite handicapper.  Wish I would’ve taken my own advice and added on the Bengals and Cardinals.  It’s the perfect weekend to watch the games as it’s pretty goddamn cold with this cyclone bomb at hand.  Cyclone Bomb sounds like a finishing move in Mortal Kombat or a perfect description when I ate a piece of uncooked chicken last week.  Last year, Wild Card weekend was crazy as all the favorites covered.  Will the same occur this year?  Let’s see:

Kansas City hosts Tennessee, who has looked very unremarkable the past few weeks.  Tennessee is 5-12-5 ATS on the road but 5-1 in KC.  KC has seemed to get their offense together while the Titans offense has been as lively as another Tennessee legend, Pat Summit.  Hint: she’s dead.  No DeMarco Murray but that doesn’t matter because he’s been awful.  9 is a lot of points and Alex Smith SHOULD be able to cover this.  Let’s all reminisce how Alex Smith was the first overall pick and selected before…Aaron Rodgers.  Ok, memory break over.  I do not have an idea where to go team wise but I sure have made a lot of money betting on the Chiefs under at home.  Titans have gone under in 4/6 as well as 4/6 on the road.  KC has going under 6/8 and and 5/6 at home.  That’s all the info I need to

Take KC under 45

Buffalo squeaked in because the Ravens 4th quarter defense disappeared like Philadelphia teams during a championship parade.  Shady McCoy has been upgraded to probable so he’s pretty much a go.  Do I trust Buffalo on the road with no WR?  No.  Do I trust Blake Bortles who of late, has been not good.  And now he’s home in the first playoff game for the Jaguars since I was in college.  Playing Goldeneye.  Womanizing.  Playing Beer Pong.  Sigh, those were the days.  This under is quite low, 39.5  But I am going to try some different logic.  The Jags will be running the ball as that’s what they’re good at and the Bills run defense is not.  The Bills will be running because the Jags run D isn’t so hot either.  I think Doug Marrone will want to make keep a leash on Bortles and give him the chance to turn the ball over early.  I think both teams come out conservatively so I went and took…

First half Jacksonville under 19.5

Lastly, my lock of the week.  If you’ve consistently read this column, thanks to all 23 of you.  And you’ll know that I love the Saints at home.  You know what I love even more than the Saints at home?  Blowjobs, duh.  And a ton of Denise Richards naked photos circa 1997.  Also, I love the Saints over at home.  Saints are 15/21 over at home.  And when the Saints play Carolina, the over hits 6/7.  Also, when the Saints play Carolina at home, the over hits 6/7.  Carolina is 5/7 in hitting the over.  The Saints hung 30+ on Carolina both times they played them.  I would take the Saints if it got down to 6.5 but for now, I LOVE….

The Saints over 48.5

Week 16 NFL picks ATS

Hope you’re ready to enjoy Christmas and hope you paid for those gifts with FREEEE MONEY!  When you’re hot, you’re hot.  4-3 last week as I took TB under this past monday night to push me over .500 for the week.  Guys, I haven’t had a losing week in 7 weeks.  Just saying.  We’re getting to the fantasy championship/players getting rested/ time of year so the number of plays will get smaller and by next week, it’s going to be only a slight few.  But I have a few in mind so here we go:

The wife beater currently known as Ezekiel Elliot is back for the Cowgirls and Dallas is holding onto a microcosm of hope to make the playoffs.  In comes the rape victim from week 15 known as the Seattle Seahawks.  And who had the Rams as the pick of the week last week?  YOU’RE WELCOME.  Jesus, I put out more than your moms.  2 weeks, 2 mom jokes.  How much confidence do you have in Seattle?  The correct answer is very little.  Usually, the Seahawks destroy in the month of December but it looks like the Legion of Boom went bust.  That defense has been beaten up more than Jim J Bullock’s asshole.  Wow, what a deep cut.  Pulling out an F list celebrity from the 80’s in this column, check.  Dallas is 7-2 ATS vs Sea and 5-2 ATS vs Seattle.  More stats? Sure.  Seattle is 2-5-1 of late and 3-7-1 on the road.  Not very awe inspiring.  And now, a Montell Jordan reference for you. “The party’s hype and the number’s right. Drinking 40’s here on the west side.”

Take Dallas -5 cause this is how we do it.

The Buffalo Bills are smack in the middle of the playoffs, despite the Nathan Peterman experiment.  Doesn’t that sound like the name of a shitty emo band?  I know, ALL EMO IS SHITTY, KEVIN.  The Bills go into Foxboro where the Pats really haven’t felt like the PATS this year.  They got insanely lucky (including me having under 54 last week) with that win.  The Bills NEED this game and the Pats haven’t blown anyone out in awhile (3 weeks). The Bills A) got beat by 20 and will most definitely B) use this as a revenge game for the Gronkowski cheap shot.  11.5 is just too many damn points so take the team who needs the game pretty bad.  And oh yeah, more fun facts.  The Bills hit the under 5/7 on the road, 4/6 under in NE.  And the Pats of late are also not putting up points as the under has hit 4/5.  Hogan is doubtful and Burkhead is out.  And oh yeah, Bellichik is 47% ATS when laying double digits.

So let’s double down and take the Bills +11.5 and the under 47.

Pittsburgh lost a potential dream crusher last week.  Pittsburgh sucks mastodon scrotum on the road.  Pittsburgh of late is 1-5 ATS.  I know, Houston isn’t much better, 2-5 ATS of late.  But 9 is too many and Pittsburgh plays to the level of their opponent.  And oh yeah, the best WR in football is out for the game.  If you don’t know who that is or disagree with me, you shouldn’t be reading this column.

Take the Texans +9 and cross your fingers.

The Saints fucked me not once but twice.  Not nice for a team named after a celestial figure.  The Saints couldn’t cover and bury Bryce Petty?  And then Mark Ingram, in clock killing mode, breaks off a long touchdown to burn me on the under.  Shame on me for laying 16.5.  The Saints lost to the Falcons 3 weeks ago (another one that I called.  Time for me to get my own show, goddamnit!) and I think they have revenge on their mind.  The Saints also want to get that division sewn up because they know KG has them 6/1 to win the NFC so let’s not monkey around.  Saints have 9 wins by 10 points or more.  Atlanta in a short week BARELY beat the Bucs on (had the under so yep, taking a bow again.)  Falcons D has given up 7 TDs in the last 3 weeks and only one pick.  Matt Ryan also not doing that much this year.  

The Saints come marching in all over the Falcons, -5. 

Tampa Bay almost tied it up with a 56 yd FG attempt on monday night.  Thank god that kick fell like an Italian man, a foot or 2 short.  Cause my under would have been cooked.  Here’s a fun fact: Tampa is 13-4 as an over when they’re a double digit underdog.  TB has a TON of injuries on defense and even if they were healthy, they weren’t that got.  But TB has hit 7/8 unders on the road.  Carolina has hit the over 5/5.  Panthers also 5/6 over at home.  I like Carolina to win and if it can get to under 10, I’ll jump on it.  But for now, it’s just going to be…

Carolina over 46.5

Not a full lock but I’m highly convinced about this game.  One garbage fan base flies across country to visit the biggest garbage fan base.  Raiders in Philly and Philly looking for that 1 seed.  Foles crushed it in his season debut and he better crush it against the Black and Silver because I have him in my fantasy championship.  BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE!  I don’t see the Raiders giving 2 shits about this game after they lost the way they did.  They’re flying cross country and playing Christmas night?  The Eagles may roll early and then sit Foles.  But I don’t see the Raiders showing up so let’s end this Christmas night with.

Philly under 47

 

Week 12 NFL picks

Sorry for no column last weekend, I had an insanely packed Saturday with the Comics Watching Comics taping on Saturday while family came up for a belated birfday celebration on Sunday.  But if you follow me and my cookie eating machine (She ate a CWC cookie last week), you’ll see that I killed it!  I hit Tenn over on Thursday night to start off the week with an easy win as that was clinched in the 3rd quarter.  I hit Philly, Baltimore, Minnesota and the under, and the Saints over.  I lost KC (fucking Giants dicked me again when getting double digits), SD under (Peterman throwing FIVE picks didn’t help), and the Houston under.  I also hit the Seattle over on monday night, giving me a SOLID 7-3 record last week.  I took SD under on Thanksgiving and nailed that one with ease so we’re starting off the week 1-0.  Hot hand in the dice game, baby doll!  Talk about 6 hours straight!  Clickety, clickety, clack!   Now name that reference.

I missed definitely 1, even 2 bets last week.  I should’ve went with the Pats and the under like my gut said to because the Pats stayed in Denver to maintain the high elevation conditions to prep for Mexico City.  And by prepping for conditions, I mean put your money in your shoes and carrying a burner cell phone.  I knew the Raiders weren’t doing that and boy, did it show.  But I like to bet trends and here are a few for you:  The Pats are 5/7 covering the overs at home.  The Pats are 4/6 covering the overs when playing Miami.  And Miami is perfect in the over department in their last 5.  Matt Moore will be chasing points like Kevin Spacey chasing nerd boys in a Gamestop.  48 is an easy number for both teams to hit.

Take the Pats over 48

Pittsburgh has 10 days to prepare for the DOA Green Bay Packers.  This game SHOULD be out of hand early and this number is so low that Pitt may be able to cover it themselves.   For the last month and change, the Packers D has given up 20+ points in all but one game.  The only question is can GB score enough points as in that same timeframe as they’ve put up 20+ points…one time.  They’ve also been shut out once in that span (Lock of the week last week was Baltimore folks but then again, if you follow me on FB, you know that).  GB has hit the over on the road 7/8.  Pitt though, has hit the under 8/10.  GB women are 0/10 when it comes to hitting the under of 215 lbs.  I just think 43 is too low and GB will be chasing points late.  Can you see Pitt winning this 35-10?  I can.  And if so, that’s a winner. 

Take GB over 43

Jacksonville got one of the luckiest covers last week against the Browns when they stripped the ball from Kizer late and ran it in for a DTD.  The last time Cleveland had their hearts ripped out of them like this was the previous Sunday.  And the Sunday before that.  And the Sunday before that.  Jacksonville is 9-4 ATS and 7-1 on the road.  Now they fly to sunny Arizona where the only thing the Cardinals fans have to look forward to is ASU sorority girls on a scavenger hunt during pledge season.  AZ is 2-7-1 out of their last 10 and 1-3-1 at home.  What’s Jacksonville’s biggest weakness?  Run D.  And who is the biggest “threat” on AZ?  Old ass Adrian Peterson who aside from one stellar week has done less than SNL writers writing something else besides a Trump joke.  Acquiring Marcel Darius was the best thing for Jax as the yds per carry for opposing RBs has drastically dropped since Buffalo gave him away like a cuckholded husband gives away his wife.  And remember, BLAINE GABBERT IS THE QUARTERBACK.  No way that top tiered Jax pass D lets up anything in the air.  Especially from a guy named Blaine.

You’ll thank me when you take the Jags -5

The battle of bad accents, bad fashion, and bad driving (Ohio) is this weekend and the winner is truly the loser because it’s Ohio.  Cleveland ALMOST covered for a bunch of you but then went full Cleveland Steamer when they fumbled and Jax returns that fumble for a TD.  But Cincy has been a covering machine of late: 16 points over margin over their last 6 games as well as 6-0 ATS.  Cincy 5-0 ATS vs Cleveland.  Browns are 1-8 ATS and 0-4-1 on the road.  I know 7.5 is a tricky number but this game can easily be 20-10.

The Bengals continue to make the Browns scratching their heads and counting down until Josh Gordon returns, take Cincy -7.5

After watching Seattle’s hopes get crushed by a late FG attempt falling short on monday night, I think they’re done.  Their defense looks more trampled than Tera Patrick’s pussy. A short work week, ZERO running game, and now they’re on the road in SF.  The Niners are fresh off a bye and have a little pep in their step after destroying the Giants 2 weeks ago.  The Seahawks beat the Niners with a late FG to win 12-9 in SEATTLE.  What makes me think they’re gonna do it on the road?  Nothing.  “DEAD MAN WALKING!”

Take the NAWWWNERS +6.5