NFL Week 17 ATS Picks

Indulge me for a second.  How does talent go unrecognized for so long?  It took Breaking Bad at LEAST 5 pitches before it was made.  Do you know who pass on the role for Walter White?  John Cusack and Ferris Bueller himself.  So if it took Vince Gilligan this long to get the greatest show ever made passed, it’s going to take a long time for me to get noticed for my penchant of making picks.  And to see more of that, check out Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber on Youtube/Facebook.  

Here’s the link: 

Yeah, I’m ABSOLUTELY KILLING IT.  4-1 last week, 16-4 in 3 weeks, and 62/105 for the year.  Which translates to an insane 59% for the season.  52.5% is break even but we’re going to finish wayyy above that.  I’d love to get over 60% for the year as well as pay off this Grand Cayman trip.  Week 17 is always tricky with figuring out who is going to rest starters.  So here we go!

Lock of the week:

No shame in getting numbers to where you want them.  Houston is gunning for that sexy ass 2 seed and they need to win to have a shot at it.  Lamar Miller should be back for the Texans.  Black Bortles is back, yuck.  And he’s on the road?  Double yuck.  Jax is 2-7-2 ATS of late, 2-9 SU, 1-4-1 ATS on the road, 2-7 SU against Hou, 2-6 SU in Houston.  Houston is 5-1 SU at home, 6-2 SU at home vs Jacksonville.  Do you think Jacksonville is gonna give it their all on the road?  And against a team who wants that #2 seed?  I don’t. 

We’re teasing the Texans down to .5 so it’s a pick em.

Second half of the teaser.  Let’s pick against another team who is purely on, “I don’t give a fuck” street.  The Lions are giving as much an effort as I would trying to stop Emily Rajakowski putting her privates on mine.  Green Bay has won 2 straight after firing Mike McCarthy, who looks like he wears flip flops and socks with a backwards hat and Oakleys on a Carribbean island.  GB 4-2 ATS at home of late.  Now the Lions and the NFL’s worst pass defense come into Lambeau where they’ve been manhandled worse than anyone dating Kareem Hunt’s.  Det of late is 3-6 ATS, 5-2 on the road ATS.  More importantly, the Lions are 7-16-2 in GB, 2-23 SU in GB.  Matt Stafford on the road stinks like Joy Behar’s hoo-hah.  He was rested in the 4th quarter of last week’s game with a balky back.  He may have the same happen to him again if this game starts to get out of hand or may not even start at all.

Teasing the Packers down to -2

New OC in Minnesota loves running the ball.  That under hit with relative ease last week although Kyle Rudolph catching that hail mary at the end of the first half sent a shiver up my butthole.  The Bears come into town, also needing a win to go for the #2 seed.  They’re not going to be showing off anything to the Vikings as they may play each other next week if the Bears don’t get the 2 seed.  I don’t see Trubisky running it up on the road and no Allen Robinson (no big deal, he sucked this year for those who had him in fantasy) for the Bears.  Minnesota needs the game to make the playoffs but I really see this as a defensive game and numbers back up this statement.  Vikings under of late, 4/5 and 8/11 at home.  Bears on the road, not exactly lighting it up either.  Bears 4/5 under of late, 10/14 vs Minnesota, and 5/7 in Minnesota.  

Minnesota under 40.5

Nothing like hedging a bet, right?  I have the Bills under 6 wins for the year.  They’re currently at 5 so I’ll push if they win.  So let’s capitalize on a game where they’re going to most likely take care of business at home.  In come the Dolphins who are just as sloppy as a West Virginia family at an OK Corral.  Miami is 1-5 ATS on the road, 1-5 in Buffalo.  Buffalo is going to be colder than Lena Dunham’s other side of the bed.  Miami got deal their hopes destroyed last week and do you think they’re rallying on the road, in the cold?  I sure don’t.  Their pass defense is atrocious and is the worst when it comes to giving up big plays.  Allan is throwing the ball so that falls right into our favor.  The line is currently 5.5 but I took this last night when 6 was the number.

So I teased the Bills down to a pick em.  

Goddamnit anyway, it looks like the unthinkable has a chance to occur again.  Nick Foles and his supposedly immense penis are making Eagle fans believe that they can do the unthinkable again.  No, not class up that garbage city they play in.  If Philly wins, they could likely get in with a little help.  Now they’re going to Washington who just cut DJ Swearinger.  The Redskins ship is sinking, they have one of the worst run defenses, and the Eagle fans will infest this place Alabama fans infest cruise ships to the Bahamas.

Second half of the teaser, Eagles down to -1

As I mentioned, week 17 has a lot of teams looking to rest or keep key players out of harms way.  But they still need them to perform to build a big enough lead or win outright.  Exhibit A: The Kansas City Chiefs are home after a loss in Seattle against the Raiders.  After Gruden’s press conference Monday night; he said, “I’m glad to end the season with a win.”  Umm Jon, there’s still another game left.  Oakland is on a short week.  Also, I expect KC to roll against them but cover in the end and possibly resting starters with a shit defense?  Don’t know about that.

Take Chiefs first half -7.5

Let’s continue that trend with another team in the playoff hunt.  The Chargers are home against the recently pasted Broncos.  Vance Joseph has as good of a chance of having a job on Tuesday as well as I do laughing at a Tyler Perry film.  Again, Denver is on the road after a short week.  No Phillip Lindsay either, he just went on IR.  Eekler is back for Are the Chargers covering for the full game if they see the Chiefs are running away with their game?  Probably not.  They’ll yank their key guys and take that 5 or 6 seed.  So let’s bank on the max effort for the Chargers early.

Take the Chargers first half -3.5

Last game of the slate for me.  Andrew Luck has yet to lose to the Titans.  They’re in a must win scenario too.  Wait, Andrew Luck goes against either a banged up Mariota who has the same amount of feeling in his body as a stroke victim?  Or even (crossing my fingers) Blaine Gabbert?  No Orakpo for the Titans on d either.  Colts are 11-3 ATS playing Tennessee and 4-2 ATS in Tennessee.  Titans are 7-3 ATS and 7-1 SU at home but I repeat, Andrew Luck has never lost to the Titans.  And they’re on fire of late, especially when coming back from down 10 to the Giants last week. 

Grab the Colts -3

Week 12 NFL picks

Sorry for no column last weekend, I had an insanely packed Saturday with the Comics Watching Comics taping on Saturday while family came up for a belated birfday celebration on Sunday.  But if you follow me and my cookie eating machine (She ate a CWC cookie last week), you’ll see that I killed it!  I hit Tenn over on Thursday night to start off the week with an easy win as that was clinched in the 3rd quarter.  I hit Philly, Baltimore, Minnesota and the under, and the Saints over.  I lost KC (fucking Giants dicked me again when getting double digits), SD under (Peterman throwing FIVE picks didn’t help), and the Houston under.  I also hit the Seattle over on monday night, giving me a SOLID 7-3 record last week.  I took SD under on Thanksgiving and nailed that one with ease so we’re starting off the week 1-0.  Hot hand in the dice game, baby doll!  Talk about 6 hours straight!  Clickety, clickety, clack!   Now name that reference.

I missed definitely 1, even 2 bets last week.  I should’ve went with the Pats and the under like my gut said to because the Pats stayed in Denver to maintain the high elevation conditions to prep for Mexico City.  And by prepping for conditions, I mean put your money in your shoes and carrying a burner cell phone.  I knew the Raiders weren’t doing that and boy, did it show.  But I like to bet trends and here are a few for you:  The Pats are 5/7 covering the overs at home.  The Pats are 4/6 covering the overs when playing Miami.  And Miami is perfect in the over department in their last 5.  Matt Moore will be chasing points like Kevin Spacey chasing nerd boys in a Gamestop.  48 is an easy number for both teams to hit.

Take the Pats over 48

Pittsburgh has 10 days to prepare for the DOA Green Bay Packers.  This game SHOULD be out of hand early and this number is so low that Pitt may be able to cover it themselves.   For the last month and change, the Packers D has given up 20+ points in all but one game.  The only question is can GB score enough points as in that same timeframe as they’ve put up 20+ points…one time.  They’ve also been shut out once in that span (Lock of the week last week was Baltimore folks but then again, if you follow me on FB, you know that).  GB has hit the over on the road 7/8.  Pitt though, has hit the under 8/10.  GB women are 0/10 when it comes to hitting the under of 215 lbs.  I just think 43 is too low and GB will be chasing points late.  Can you see Pitt winning this 35-10?  I can.  And if so, that’s a winner. 

Take GB over 43

Jacksonville got one of the luckiest covers last week against the Browns when they stripped the ball from Kizer late and ran it in for a DTD.  The last time Cleveland had their hearts ripped out of them like this was the previous Sunday.  And the Sunday before that.  And the Sunday before that.  Jacksonville is 9-4 ATS and 7-1 on the road.  Now they fly to sunny Arizona where the only thing the Cardinals fans have to look forward to is ASU sorority girls on a scavenger hunt during pledge season.  AZ is 2-7-1 out of their last 10 and 1-3-1 at home.  What’s Jacksonville’s biggest weakness?  Run D.  And who is the biggest “threat” on AZ?  Old ass Adrian Peterson who aside from one stellar week has done less than SNL writers writing something else besides a Trump joke.  Acquiring Marcel Darius was the best thing for Jax as the yds per carry for opposing RBs has drastically dropped since Buffalo gave him away like a cuckholded husband gives away his wife.  And remember, BLAINE GABBERT IS THE QUARTERBACK.  No way that top tiered Jax pass D lets up anything in the air.  Especially from a guy named Blaine.

You’ll thank me when you take the Jags -5

The battle of bad accents, bad fashion, and bad driving (Ohio) is this weekend and the winner is truly the loser because it’s Ohio.  Cleveland ALMOST covered for a bunch of you but then went full Cleveland Steamer when they fumbled and Jax returns that fumble for a TD.  But Cincy has been a covering machine of late: 16 points over margin over their last 6 games as well as 6-0 ATS.  Cincy 5-0 ATS vs Cleveland.  Browns are 1-8 ATS and 0-4-1 on the road.  I know 7.5 is a tricky number but this game can easily be 20-10.

The Bengals continue to make the Browns scratching their heads and counting down until Josh Gordon returns, take Cincy -7.5

After watching Seattle’s hopes get crushed by a late FG attempt falling short on monday night, I think they’re done.  Their defense looks more trampled than Tera Patrick’s pussy. A short work week, ZERO running game, and now they’re on the road in SF.  The Niners are fresh off a bye and have a little pep in their step after destroying the Giants 2 weeks ago.  The Seahawks beat the Niners with a late FG to win 12-9 in SEATTLE.  What makes me think they’re gonna do it on the road?  Nothing.  “DEAD MAN WALKING!”

Take the NAWWWNERS +6.5