NFL Picks Week 2 Against the Spread

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Guttentag!  I’m back from Vegas after a 5-3 weekend: hitting Denver under, Packers, Vikings under, Pats under, and Baltimore.  Lost the KC under, Dal/Sea teaser (Dalton throw for over 400 yds in Seattle???), and Denver.  This year, we’re still doing the picks with the Cookie Monster on Facebook but I’m not giving you all of my picks.  I’ll give you some of the ones I really like but I’m saving those for the Patreon account.  Yes, I’ve sold out because A) We need seed money to promote Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber and B) I was 61% against the spread last year.  I made you a lot of money last year, why the hell can’t I get paid for my services?  So for $50 a week, you get my locks of the week.  And that money goes right back into Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber.  If you want fantasy football advice or we’ll do your DFS game, here is the link for the Patreon info:  https://www.patreon.com/fantaryfootballjibberjabber

Venmo me @Kevin-Gootee $50 and I’ll give you my locks of the week.  I’ll post the screenshot of my picks from previous week so you can verify that I’m telling the truth.  And here are 3 picks I’m liking this week.

Cluster injuries for Chargers.  Derwin James out, Mike Williams is a ?, Russel Okun out, and Hunter Henry is out. Chargers 2-4 SU in Det.  West coast team coming east for a 1pm game after playing OT on Sunday.  Houston 11-4 SU in last 15, 4-1 SU home vs Jax,  Jax 1-4 ATS, 2-11 SU, 2-8 SU vs Hou, 1-4 SU in Hou. Detroit also played to a tie against Arizona.  Not happy if you’re a Lions fan but happy if you have AZ under 5 for the year as I do!  Backup QB Gardner Minshew (perfect name for a yacht club or rowing crew guy) is back under center after looking respectful, albeit against a porous KC defense.  Houston just coming off a monday night heartbreaker after losing via the last second field goal shall come home and rebound.  If they can’t win by 2 or more, they should bring in Dr Watson from Sherlock Holmes and fire Deshaun Watson.

Teaser: 7 point teaser Houston down to -2 and Detroit +9.5

Because Sam Darnold must have licked a subway pole to get mono or he’s making out with women on the Hampton Jitney, I’m taking the Brownies.  If Baker Mayfield wants to earn some of that hype, he better win and cover after getting blown out.  Some stats to back up my argument. Jets are 2-8-1 in last 11 and 1-10 SU.  Jets 4-11-1 vs AFC.  Jets 6/9 under VS Cle and 6/9 in September and 4/6 on a Monday.  Just remember, all Odell Beckham Jr has to do is take that 350k watch and reflect the stadium lights into the eyes of the CB in front of him.  

Cle -6.5

Atlanta is 9-1 SU in week 2 games.  Big fact.  Atlanta got embarrassed last week against Minnesota (had the under, you’re welcome) and now they’re home.  Yes 2-5 at home and 2-7 ATS but the Eagles lost Malik Jackson and rallied to beat the Skins.  BUT PHILLY JUST LET CASE KEENUM THROW FOR 385 YDS AGAINST THEM.  Teasing up the Falcons to 8 is a key number and I highly doubt they lose by more than a TD.  Denver up to 8.5 because who knows the Bears better than Vic Fangio?  Den 6-0 SU vs NFC north.  Trubisky in Denver? No thank you.

6 points teaser: Den to +8.5, ATL to +8.

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NFL Picks Week 4 ATS

6-3 last week!  2 out of 3 weeks, I’ve won you money.  And not one of you sent me a cut or a thank you note.  Didn’t your mothers teach you better manners?  I didn’t take Thursday night’s game as I debated about Minnesota (push) and the under (definite miss.  I think we all know the Rams over will be the lock of the week for the season.)  

Breakdown: I took Indy and the under, Jets under, Cincy over, Miami, and the Saints.  The Giants under missed with exactly 1 second left on the clock and of course, that was the big bet of the week.  Lost the TB under on Monday night, lost the Niners when Jimmy G snapped that ACL but will still be snapping that porn star puss.  15-8 on the year, why the fuck don’t I have a gambling show yet??!?!?!  

The Oakland Raiders are 0-3, just like most of their fans’ parole hearings.  Are they that bad or the victims of bad luck?  They’ve blown 3 leads at halftime and now they get Baker Mayfield on the road in his first start?  In the black hole?  Remember when betting, you’re playing the number, which is Oak -2.5 here.  Home field is 3 points so what Vegas is trying to say is Cleveland is .5 better than Oakland on a neutral site?  With a QB who has ONE HALF under his belt.  Not buying it.  And Oakland is due for a win, especially at home.  Oh yeah, rookie QBs making their first start on the road?  ZERO out of 10.

Take the Raiders -2.5.  I may even take the under 45 as Oak under 9/10, 5/5 at home, and 4/5 vs Cleveland.

You know what Carson Wentz didn’t do last week?  Throw for a shitload of yards and TDs, just like I said he wouldn’t.  And now they face a rather stingy Tennessee defense.  And Tennessee’s Mariota looks like he got hit by that volcano eruption in his native Hawaii.  Tennessee is also a heavy run offense.  How do the Eagles fare against the run?  #2, just like me in the bathroom 5 minutes ago?  Titans have scored totals of 17, 20, and 9 pts this year.  Eagles have scored 20, 21, and 18 this year.  This game screams 17-13 so let’s be wise and take 

Tennessee under 41.5, I bought the .5

Atlanta defense is like the testimony of the second Cavanaugh accuser, possibly full of holes and supposedly gang banged up.  Missing both starting safeties is not a way to start against Andy Dalton, who has been slinging it all over the place.  Much like a recently divorced woman at an Appelebee’s on a Friday night. 1/2 off appetizers will get her pants fully off in that bathroom!  Falcons just played nearly 5 quarters against the Saints and that defense is as gassed like a fat kid doing suicides.  Not shooting up a school and then killing himself, I’m talking about running back and forth for an hour straight followed up by puking. You know,  the good ol days where coaches would call you a faggot for missing the cutoff man.  Cincy lists AJ Green as probable so that’s huge.  The only thing that scares is the line opened +5.5 and now it’s down to 3.5.

Take the Bengals while you can get the 3.5, it’s still a good number.

Sigh, I said I don’t do normally do this…I know, I sound like a woman during a one night stand.  But I’m going to make a case for the NY Giants and break my own rule of betting them.  Saints played nearly 5 quarters last week.  And that defense stinks worse than my house after a night of my wife’s Buffalo wing dip (to die for) and beers.  Saints defense AVERAGES 33 points again.  And now they’re on the road but more importantly, outside of a dome.  The Giants beat them the last time they came to Giants stadium and now they’re catching 3.5?  Saints are 1-5 SU in NY and the under has hit 5/7 when they’ve played?  Vernon and Apple are out again on defense.  Then again, they were out last week against Houston and they won.  

Let’s cross those fingers and toes and take the Giants +3.5

I kinda like but probably won’t bet: GB (home against a Bills team who shot their load last week), Detroit +3, Jets +7.5 (3rd road game in a row kind of scares me about the Jets but the number is right), Chargers -10.5 (Large number, may buy it down to 9.5, depends how I do with the 1pm games.)

And now it’s time for the lock of the week.  Quite shocked this number is moving this way and a bit annoyed I locked in too earlier.  But the Colts -1.5 (now a pick ’em or even +1) is a steal.  Hopkins went through limited practice with a couple of injuries, limited as questionable, but he’ll go.  And Houston’s secondary is trash.  Houston 2-7-2 playing Indy, 2-5-1 in Indy.  Colts could’ve won in weeks 1 and 3 EASILY.  They’re 2-1 ATS and could be 2-1-1 if they didn’t turn it over late week 1.  

I have the Colts at -1.5 but you can get them at a Pick or even +1, get that NOW if you can.

 

 

 

 

 

NFL picks ATS week 3

Some weeks you’re the hammer, some you’re the nail.  Last week, I went 3-5 (technically 3-4 because I didn’t get the Pitt pick in so I saved a few bucks).  I lost on Houston (Hey Deshaun Watson, when you have 14 seconds left, don’t scramble around while looking for an open receiver.  Throw it away and give the kicker a shot.)   I lost on Philly who let Fitzpatrick go all Fitzpatrick over them.  The Giants offensive line let Dallas defense gangbang Eli Manning.  However, the Giants didn’t score and neither Dallas so the under hit.  The Jets under also hit and the Chargers forced Vontae Davis to quit in halftime in their easy cover.  I also took the Seahawks on Monday night who took a colossal dump on themselves against the Bears as Russ Wilson threw a pick 6 when on a potential game tying drive late in the 4th quarter.  So last night, 9/20, I took the Browns under 41 against the Jets.  Amazing how I had to sweat that under out for so long as Tyrod and Darnold did their best impressions of kids with no arms trying to play jai alai.  But then Baker Mayfield comes in, wins the game, and unlocks the Bud Light fridges for the city of Cleveland.  And just for one evening, everyone in Cleveland enjoyed themselves and forgot how ugly everyone is in that town.

So 1-0 to start this week, let’s get you (and me) more freeeeeeeee money.

Carson Wentz is back this week and I think he’s going to look like Pete Wentz from Fall Out Boy.  The Eagles definitely rushed him back and it’s going to show.  Wentz is going to be treated with kid gloves and he’s without a ton of options: Jay Alai is probably out, no Alshon Jeffrey, no Mike Wallace.  They’re going to hand it off a lot and keep him safe.  The Colts come in after beating the Skins and Luck still isn’t airing it deep yet.  I don’t see this being a high scoring affair and the stats back it up: 9/10 have went under for Indy and recently 5/5 have went under for Indy. Philly also has been an under machine, 5/6 at home were under.  And Philly is still perfect as a garbage town with garbage fans.

Take the under 47 and the Colts + 7.

Like “men” who play Pokemon go, they don’t score.  You know who else doesn’t score?  The NY football Giants.  Eli Manning’s offensive line is like Ray Liotta’s face.  Full of holes and hard to watch.  I learned my lesson, again, about betting them as I thought they would show up against Dallas.  Houston finally comes home but they’re not lighting up the scoreboard.  They floundered in NE and Tennessee.  Giants are 5/6 with the under on the road and 8 of their last 9 under.  Houston also on the under train, 6/7.  I think the Giants are going to cover 6 this week but I’d rather lay my money on a sure thing; which is your wife after a few too many Long Island Ice Teas what she tells you is her,
girls’ night out”.  But I’ll settle for the second best lock.

Take the Giants under 42.

Home field is usually 3 points in the NFL.  So you mean to tell me that if the Packers played the Redskins on a neutral field, they’re an evenly matched team?  Right now, Aaron Rodgers is listed as questionable but it’s not the usual questionable.  He didn’t practice all last week, deemed questionable, but played on Sunday.  Rodgers hasn’t practiced all week and is again on track to play on Sunday.  The Skins are banged up and aren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard; 9 points against the Colts and 24 against AZ.  Rodgers admits the knee will be tough to heel.  Speaking of healing, nothing worse than dealing with A) a blister on your foot B) burn on the roof of your mouth or C) getting into a salt water tank with an exposed hemorrhoid.  Washington is recently 5/5 and 4/5 with the under at home. There’s a chance of rain but a better chance of this game going 

GB Under 45.5 but hold on to see if it climbs by Sunday.  

The Bengals made the Ravens look worse than the Baltimore school system.  No Joe Mixon so I’ll wager they air it out more; especially with PPR sensation, Giovanni Bernard now the lead back.  10 days to plan out how to gash the Carolina defense.  And Carolina is 7/10 over at home.  Carolina just lost in a shootout to Atl and Cincy has put up 34 in each game this year.  Let’s hope there’s a “hurricane” of points in Carolina on Sunday.

Take the Bengals over 44

The Saints have been more disappointing this year than the last season of Entourage/Entourage film/Ballers.  Smell a theme?  Yeah Marky Mark, I’m talking to you, Mr 22 Mile.  Jesus, it must be great not to have to read a script in the last 10 years when they offer 25 million plus a film.  Brees on the road?  Meh. Brees on the road in a dome, I’m tumescent.  A banged up Julio Jones, although he’s practiced this week, but other key players on the o-line and D are banged up for the Falcons.  Saints 13-5-1 on the road and 4-2 vs ATL.  But to me, this is a, “if not now, when?” game for the Saints.  They need a convincing road win and this is the time.

Saints +2.5 (I Bought the .5 point to +3)

SF is on the road in KC this week. Do I think Jimmy G can backdoor a cover and then backdoor his porn star gf?  Easily. The KC defense is sloppier than a Kansas family of 5 taking down a Golden Corral buffet after sunday church.  SF is 7-3 ATS on the road and KC let Pitt right back into the game after going up 3 scores early.  No other pithy jokes or observations here.

Take the Niners +6.5 (I bought the half point to +7)

And since I’m tired of analysis and jokes for the last pick, the Raiders fly 3000 miles to play in 90 degree heat and give another lackluster performance.  And it’s your typical, west coast flies east to play a 1pm game.  

Go with the Dolphins -3 (I bought the .5 point to -2.5)