NFL picks week 6 ATS

3-3-1 last week so another week of .500. Not winning money, just losing vigs. But good news is no losing weeks all season. 17-10-1 for the year gives me a 63% success rate so very much still in the black. And I loved our latest episode photo of Point Break on Gutting the Sacred Cow podcast that I had to add it here, make sure you give it a listen and subscribe!

People are loving TB this year and I want you to point out a good win they’ve had. They got lucky against a bad Chargers team and just lost to Nick Foles. But the Packers have done nothing but make me money this year. They’re GB-9-3-2 following a bye.  GB 5-1 ATS, 10-1 SU of late and 5-1 SU on road.  GB 5-1 ATS in last 6 vs NFC south and 5-1 ATS in October.  TB 2-4 ATS, 1-5 ATS in last 6 vs NFC north.  TB 0-5 ATS in October.

Taking GB on the money line as the line is -1. Why not pay a few dollars more to get it at a pick em? 

Did I call the Browns last week or what? Now the Colts looked like pureed dog shit against them. You know they’re going to be pissed and thankfully, they get a cupcake Bengals team. Some stats? Sure. Colts 7-0 ATS before a bye.  Indy 13-3 SU at home, 5-2 in October.  Cincy 3-16-1 SU last 20, 4-9 SU against Indy and 1-8 SU in Indy.  0-14-1 SU on the road.  But you know what’s a great idea? Teasing the Colts down to below a FG. So here’s the first leg of the teaser.

Second half of the teaser: Houston gives up a lot of points and they can also put up points. Hou Over 4/6 of late, Tenn 4/5 over.  7/8 over at home for Tenn.  Tannehill fresh off a curb stomping of the Bills, they’ll put up points early on Hou. And Houston will be airing it out to chase points so there’s the second leg of the teaser.

Colts -2 and Hou over 47.5 

Baker has bruised ribs and can’t play fast.  Cle 4-2 ATS in Pitt but 3-16-1 SU in Pitt.  Cle 1-7 ATS on road, 0-10 in Pitt.  Cle 1-4 vs AFC and 2-4 SU in AFC north.  Pitt 4-1 SU, 7-1 SU at home.  8-1-1 ATS in October. Pittsburgh is having an all-world start, best since the 70’s when they won all those Superbowls. No jokes, just take the Steelers.

Pitt -3.5

I fucked up and locked in 2 different teasers with the Colts. So that’s the first half of the teaser. The second half, Denver Broncos are 3-7 SU in NE, 3-9 on road, 0-5 ATS in NE.  2-6 SU vs AFC east.  No Noah Fant and no Melvin Gordon for the Broncos. Pats have Cam and Gilmore back.  17-3 SU at home, 6-1 ATS in October. I would rather try to paint Mohammed in a French magazine than bet against Bellichick with 2 weeks to prepare against a team with 2 shitty QBs and a middle of the road third one. And we’re teasing the Pats down to a key number; although I think they cunt punt them without the 6 points we’re getting from the teaser.

Indy -2 and Patriots -3

The Jets are worse than having to sit in Lincoln tunnel traffic with your stomach having the diarrhea gurgles. Jets 0-5 ATS and SU, 0-4-1 ATS and 1-4 SU vs Miami.  Jets 3-14 SU on road and 1-4 vs AFC East.  Miami 5-2 ATS of late, 5-1 against AFC, 5-0 ATS in week 6.

Arizona 4-1 ATS and SU in Dallas.  But 2-14 SU in Dallas.  Dallas 0-5 ATS and 1-6 ATS vs NFC west. Now you’re probably saying, “holy shit, you’re betting on the soul less ginger known as Andy Dalton?” Yep. Because they’re going to feed Zeke like they should’ve been done all year. And Arizona fresh off a blowout win against the Jets now have to fly back home and then Dallas? I don’t think Dallas gets blown out and with the teaser, it’s a key number for Red Riding Hood.

Miami -3.5 and Dallas +7

SF has been bad but they’re getting people back on the field.  They’re 13-4 SU against NFC, 5-2 vs NFC west.  Yes, Niners are 2-5 ATS at home but Rams mightily struggle here, 3-6 SU and ATS in SF. Niners need this game to stay entrenched in the wild card race and I think they keep it close, maybe even win. Rams have been traveling all over the place and despite my misstep picking against them last week; I think it’s gotta catch up to them sometime and this is it.

Jim Harbaugh is the Bobby Bowden from the FSU days in the 90’s. He just runs up those scores without give .5 fucks. Bal 12-3-1 ATS in 16, 16-2 SU.  4-2 ATS against Philly. 8-0 SU on road, 7-0 vs NFC.  Philly 1-5 ATS and 1-4-1 SU.  1-4 vs AFC. Philly showed some fight against Pitt but in true Philly fashion, gagged it up like a bulimic after eating a cheesesteak at Geno’s. Don’t worry, Carson Wentz will still put up his 2-3 picks this game and the Ravens will coast. They’ll have an easier time beating the Eagles than going home and dodging bullets in Baltimore.

Bal -3.5 and Niners +8.5

NFL Week 3 ATS picks 9/27/20

Proper Vegas attire in 2020

No article last week as I was in Vegas so that’s why you should be following me on social media and you would’ve seen me go 3-1 last week. I had Detroit over, KC/Pitt teaser, AZ/Buffalo teaser, and the Jets under. The goddamn Jets broke us when Darnold rolls out of a sack and throws a TD with less than a minute left in the game. 3-1 last week, 3-2 week 1 which puts me at a robust 6-3 for the year, 66% ATS.

I apologize for the lack of numbers with these handicaps as I lost all my screenshots from oddshark when I had to fix my work iPad. Odds shark is censored in Jersey because they advertise gambling sites not based in Jersey. You pinko commie bastards. So I’m going on memory why I took these games without my usual stats. I know I’ll sound like my buddy Jeff Paul who makes his weekly pick on some horseshit logic but I promise, this won’t happen again.

The Lions stink. Blowing 2 first half leads turned into 2 losses and I have these cunts as an over for the year. Now they’re in AZ who is hot as a pistol. But I think Patricia knows his ass is on the line. And as I said, Detroit has come out firing in both first halves of their games. So I think Detroit grabs an early lead or at WORST, is hanging tough at the end of the half. And Stafford has Golliday back this week. So why not take…

Detroit +3.5 FIRST HALF. That extra hook helps but I truly think Detroit is up at halftime.

San Francisco 49ers defensive line has TWO STARTERS OUT. Cluster injuries on the line plus no Sherman and their starting CB. Oh yeah, Garoppolo, Kittle, and Mostert are also OUT. They’re throwing more shit out there on defense than the sidewalks of San Fran. I know my Giants stink this year but goddamnit, now is the time for a win. They’re home and almost beat the Bears last week if it weren’t for a horseshit offensive PI call. Yes, I know Barkley and Sheppard are out. If the Giants can’t beat the Niners when they’re THAT beat up, there’s a problem. But remember, this is the Giants and as Pesci said in Goodfellas, they can fuck up a cup of coffee.

So let’s tease them up to +9.5 and to find someone else to tease…

Dallas is in Seattle and as good as Seattle looks on offense, they look putrid on defense. They’re among the worst in pass rush and pass defense. Dallas and Seattle off emotional wins so that cancels out. No 12th man to screw with Dak getting the yips. I’m not betting against Russ but I’m betting on Dallas NOT getting blown out. They’ll lose but not by double digits and again, that Seattle pass D is more atrocious the stench that came from the CHAZ Zone in Seattle.

Dallas +11 is the second leg of the teaser.

Bellichick off the bye; blah, blah, blah is something like 68% ATS. Playing the Raiders at home, 1pm, after playing Monday night. Jacobs banged up a bit and Ruggs is out. I know that the center for the Pats is out which hurts but I think the Pats do enough to win. Yes, the line is -6.5 but not for me because I…

Teased the Pats down to -.5. Why leave the backdoor open?

Who to tease with now? Why not go with Backdoor Burrow in Philly? I think Cincy can cover that but I wouldn’t be surprised that Philly puts it together and blows them out. But what I do see happening today are points. Burrow can easily air it out against a shitty Philly secondary and if Carson Wentz stops throwing the ball to the other team, they can score as well. I know Cincy has the WORST ranked run defense and Philly will be inclined to expose them there.

But when I can take the over down to 41.5, I’ll do that easily thinking both teams can put up 21 apiece.

Rams smoked Philly last week (well done. Nothing sending those assholes down the drain and calling for Wentz’s head) and flew home. Why fly back? Stay east! Well, now they have to come back and play a white hot Buffalo. Here’s a stat: Buffalo has outscored their opponents in the first halves of their games something like 52-17. Again, lost my screenshots. They’re playing well at home and the Rams are without Akers, their RB. You’re laying less than a FG, the line is now 1.5. I got it at -2.5 last night so sharp money must have poured in on the Rams this morning. Not as confident on this pick now but we’ll see.

Buffalo -2.5

Last pick of the week: I’m FLOORED that Green Bay and KC are getting 3 or more on the road in empty stadiums. Those are some sexy numbers but here’s what sexier, teaser time again. Show me a world that GB (admittedly, I was wrong about Rodgers stinking this year, he’s top 5) and KC lose, let alone by more than a TD.

Teasing GB to +9 and KC +9.5

Week 1 NFL picks ATS

Can you smell it? It’s not what the Rock is cooking, it’s FREEEEEEE money! And you better believe I’m excited to get started on my second income season. 62% ATS last year so let’s pick up right where we left off. And if you want to follow my team totals for the year, here there are:

Eagles under 9.5

Lions over 7

Jets under 6

I thought I put in the Giants under 6 but apparently, I didn’t.

Bears under 8

Falcons over 7.5

Thursday night was opening kickoff and the Cookie Monster and I teased the Chiefs down to 3 and the over down to 48.5. Thank god I teased the over down as you would’ve lost by .5 So 1-0 to start the season, here we go:

The Seahawks have started off slow BIG time in recent years: see last year when I had them in a teaser down to -3 at home against the Bengals…and THEY DIDN’T COVER. Just did some research and yep, Sea 0-4-1 ATS in week 1 games. Oh yeah, the offensive and d lines for Seat lost a lot of people this off season. And they fly cross country, with masks on due to covid, and play a 1pm (10a west coast). Sea 1-4 ATS in last 6 and 1-4 against ATL. Matt Ryan 5-2 against Pete Caroll, rating over 100. 16 TDs 4 INTs is 6/8 and last 4. Top 5 offense at home. ATL 4-1 ATS and SU in last 5. 6-2 vs NFC and 10-2 vs NFC west. Falcons are getting 2.5 at home? Sign me up…for another teaser! Give me the Falcons plus 8.5 at home and with all the stats in the world backing up the Falcons? Even if they’re down by double digits late (I think they can even win), 8.5 is EASILY backdoor able. I just made that word up unless Sam Champion and Mike Piazza already coined it. So what else to tease it with…

The New York Squatters are going to be bad this year. No one on offense scares you and they traded away Jamal Adams to Seattle. They’re going up to Buffalo and off the bat, the Jets are 4-16 SU on road. 3-10 ATS against AFC east, 0-6 SU in September. Bills 4-2 ATS in september, 11-4 ATS week 1, 10-5 SU on sundays, and 8-1 SU in last 9 as favorite. This game is going to be a snoozer and as much as the Jets want retribution, they’re not going to find it in the land of fans who jump through tables and awful accents.. Second half of the teaser, Bills -.5 so a pick em.

The Rams open up their new stadium to no one in particular. However, the Rams start off on FIRE. McVay in season openers 3-0, averaging 36 points. Dallas 7 INTS last year, not getting much pressure on the QB to make bad decisions. Rams are 13-6-1 ATS, 12-4 SU in last 16 at home, 12-3-1 against NFC. 8-1 SU in september, 4-1 ATS in week 1. Wow. New coach for Dallas as well so unfamiliairty added to those stats equals a problem for Dallas. Dallas 4-2 SU and ATS against the rams. BUT 2-5 SU on the road and 1-4 against NFC west. I like the Rams at +3 but you know what’s even better? The Rams +9! And what shall I tease it with? Perhaps another near lock, the over. Dallas has gone over in 13/19, 5/6 over against the Rams, 6/7 vs NFC, Rams 4/6 over, 5/6 home over against Dal, 5/6 over against NFC East.

Arizona 4-0-1 ATS against SF, 4-1 SU in SF, 8-2 SU of their last 10. You might be saying those are some key stats. And would you look at that, Arizona is getting 8? But wow, that’s -140 to take Az! Orrrrrrr, you could do what I did and that’s take Arizona to +13 IN ANOTHER TEASER. And that’s how you avoid the higher vigs on a game you like, tease it and another game you like to get to the usual -110. Arizona covers a ton against SF plus SF with no real WR. Deebo Samuel is a question mark as is Aiyuk. The only pass catcher is Kittle and then they have their running game. Bad air quality also due to California fires and homeless peoples’ shit on the sidewalks keeps this thing within 2 scores.

Who to tease this game with? Easy one. I’ve loved this game since the schedule was announced. My NY Giants have a rookie head coach and a shaky o line and defense. Pittsburgh comes to town with a healthy Rothliesberger and solid defense. In what world do the Giants win, let alone cover, with no training camp games nor a rookie head coach with zero HC experience against Tomlin who runs a well oiled machine sans the playoffs? Pitt 4-2 SU against Giants and 4-2 SU in NY. Pitt 7-1 ATS against NFC. Giants 4-2 ATS in last 6 but 2-10 SU in last 12 and 1-5 ATS at home. Also 1-5 SU agains AFC. Second half of teaser, Pitt teased down to pick em.

New Orleans in an empty dome is a welcome sign for visitors. And would you look at that; everyone’s newest darling comes a knocking, Brady and the Bucs. You think Brady ever snuck Giselle down to the 50 yard line, had his way with her while making neighing sounds while yelling “giddyup” in every stadium he played? TB has gone over 12/14, 6/7 on the road over, 10/10 over vs NFC. Over 4/5 playing each other. Saints over 5/7 in NFC south as well as 12/18 in NO in September. Mike Evans is questionable going into this game but even in the rare case he doesn’t go, they still have a ton of weapons. Kamara got his extension so he’ll be running with $ falling out of his pocket. It’s week 1 and Brees’s last hurray, plus his arm hasn’t turned to wet fettuccine yet so get ready for points. And I got the total at 48.5, anything below 50 with these two going at it is a fucking blue light special bargain. Saints over 48.5

Week 16 NFL Picks ATS

58-42 for the year, 58%.  Ya hear me?  I HEAR YA!
Lock of the week:
Dallas got smoked by the Colts (one of my top bets last week, thank you). Now they’re home against TB who are 5-9-2 ATS.  They’re 2-4 ATS in Dallas and 1-10 SU in Dallas.  Dallas 5-1 ATS of late, 4-1 ATS at home.  If I’m using SU facts, you know what that means.  Yep, it’s teaser time.  
I teased Dallas down to -1 which makes them a virtual pick ’em.
Second half of the teaser involves the wounded ducks up in Foxboro.  The Pats definitely don’t look themselves as Brady really showed his age and a few mental lapses in Pittsburgh last week.  Now they’re home in a must win against the Bills.  When was the last time the Pats blew anyone out?  9/30 against the Dolphins, 38-7.  They’ve won by no more than 2 TDs in their other games.  No Josh Gordon, that’s a problem.  Gronk is definitely running around like Forest Gump with leg braces. Josh Allen looks the opposite as the Pats give up 5 YPC.  Pats are 2-3-1 at home against the Bills, too big of a number and the Pats D can get backdoored easily.
I’m teasing the Bills up to +19, I just don’t see the Pats blowing them out.  
Chargers are “home” after a 10 day layoff and get the Ravens who are fighting like hell for a playoff spot.  The Bal D has done a bang up job, only allowing 58% of completed passes and 3.6% passes into TD.  With Lamar Jackson as QB, they average 36 min TOP.  What does that mean?  A lot of clock run off.  Ravens have faced some AWFUL run defenses which gave them the edge to control clock, 5 out of the 6 in the league.  Short week for the Ravens as well.  Bal have gone under 8/12 and 4/6 on the road.  Chargers have gone under 4/5 at home.  
Chargers under 43.5
Dalvin Cook blew up last week like I said he would.  And now he gets a chance to run against the diarrhea defense of the Lions.  Minnesota under 5/7 of late, 4/5 vs Detroit.  Did anyone see Matt Stafford light it up last week?  Said by NO ONE this season.  They’re home but that doesn’t give a tickle in the banana hammock.  Lions are 5/6 under at home, 5/5 of late.  
Vikings under 42.5
Goff stinks on the road, 7 road games he has 7 TDs and 7 passes.  Cardinals have allowed 6th fewest points to RBs.  Gurley is banged up but we all know the way to take out the Cardinals is on the ground.  What does that mean?  Running=clock killing.  Do you see the Cardinals scoring?  I don’t.  They have scored 21 points ONCE in 5 games, 20 points 2 in two.  The last 2 weeks, they’ve combined for 17 points.  Against the Lions and Falcons.  I’ll let that sink in.  Cardinals are 7/9 under at home as well.  The Rams are an under machine of late, 4/5. 4/6 playing Arizona.  
Arizona under 44.5
Don’t look now but the Niners have won 2 straight.  They have the Bears coming to town after a ton of partying since they’ve locked up division.  I think even though the Bears still need the game for the #2 seed, this is still a trap game.  Bears offense on the road, #29. Niners defense at home #13.   Bears are 5-13 ATS vs SF, 1-8 in SF.  Niners are 4-2 ATS playing the Bears, 8-1 ATS and SU vs the Bears.  Here’s another case of the number being right.
Niners +4
Giants just got shutout at home, Indy just pitched a shutout against Dallas.  Giants will bounce back and 10 points is just too many.  Giants are ATS undefeated on the road. 5-0, and 4-1-1 of late ATS.
Giants +10
I’m also considering Arizona +14.5

NFL Week 8 picks ATS

If you missed this week’s, “Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber,” you can catch it right here.  Catch me next week on Twitch at 5pm under Be Terrific.  Fast forward to about 4:30 in for the start of the show.

4-4 last week, meh.  Lost TB and the over.  Lost Bal and SF over.  Fucking Beathard turned that ball over more times than someone on the fix.  Couldn’t score more than 10 points in garbage time? I hit Bal under as that Tucker miss solidified the under for me.  Hit my lock of the week with SD under and thankfully, Vrabel went for 2 after that late TD.  Either way, I was winning that one.  Late hits with the Chiefs and my NY Giants brought me to .500.  And of course that, “too little, too late comeback attempt but successful backdoor cover” for the Giants.  And don’t bother with a butt sex joke, we’ve done them all.  Especially all while sitting in a steam room at NY Sports Club.  30-21 on the season which puts me at 59% and better than most Vegas handicappers and MUCH better than the weathermen and weatherladies.  Quick would you rather: Land a weatherlady or land an anchorwoman on any of the Hispanic channels?  I vote Hispanic anchorwoman.  No reason, I think it’s just a slightly higher accomplishment, as long as you don’t land the one that is also cartel member’s girlfriend.

The Lock of the week: I know the Rams just made the Niners look flat out silly last week.  Aaron Rodgers is 4-0 when the Packers are getting more than 6. Off the bye, 9-2-1. Allison and Cobb will be back. Rams 6-11-2 last 19 at home ATS. Gonna be a ton of GB fans.  So barely a home field advantage for GB.

Take GB +9.5

Facts are facts: Drew Brees is a strong MVP candidate this year.  Some people are trying to downplay the revenge factor the where the Lattimore whiffed on a tackle, Stefon Diggs runs for the TD and an insurance company endorsement deal.  Saints 4-1 ATS and 5-0 SU out of their last 5.  The line went from Saints +1 to now Saints -1.5.  Time to wait this out till Sunday as the public has obviously pounded the Saints.  Minn 3-5-2 last 10 and 1-3-1 at home.  Also, the Saints have went over 52: 6/9, 7/8 vs Minnesota, 8/10 in Minnesota, Minn over 4/6.  

I’m taking the Saints -1.5 (Waiting till tomorrow to see what the line ends up) and over 53

The Steelers have been over 6/8, 4/5 at home, Cle under 4/6 and under 4/6 on the road. 8/12 vs Pitt.  Plus, Pitt D has let at least 21 points to QBs.  21 is also the number of sandwiches most women order at Primanthi’s, 21 also the number of times they’ve hooked up with their uncles, and 21 is also the number of IQ points those water heads have.  

Plunk down some buck on Pitt over 49 (I bought it down to 48.5)

After the Chiefs game sunday night, Cincinatti looked like Houston after her 500 man gangbang.  Now they’re home and not on prime time which is key for Andy Dalton.  He’s like A-Rod, showing up when there’s no pressure but shrinking when the spotlight is at its brightest.  No Gerald McCoy and Kwon Alexander on defense for TB and boy, does Jameis “One Star Uber Passenger rating” love turning that ball over.  That fruitcake screwed me out of that over last week with all of those turnovers last week vs Cleveland.  Cincy 6-3 ATS of late and 5-2 at home.  Bucs 2-11 SU on the road.  

Grabbing the Bengals -3.5

Seattle one of the best rushing the ball, Detroit one of the worst defending the rush.  Seahawks off a bye and getting 3 points?  Heiiidy HOOOOOO.  

Taking the Seahawks +3 and their obnoxious fans.

Colts flying west to facing the Oakland Raiders who are in flat out, “selling anything not nailed down” mode.  Apparently, Derek Carr isn’t crying, YOU’RE CRYING.  They traded away Cooper who wasn’t really doing anything all that special anyway and Lynch is on IR.  Now I ask you, where are the points coming from?  Jared Cook?  I’d rather have Jared from Subway.  Raiders also 2-13 ATS against teams that have a bye the following week.  

Take the Colts -3

Bonus picks

Bears have Mack listed as questionable. But where are the Jets getting their points from?  All of their WRs are out: Enuwa, Robbie Anderson, and Wayne Chrebet all out for the Jets.  They signed Richard Matthews and who cares?  He couldn’t stay on the Titans roster?  Jets 2-5-1 on the road. 0-4-1 in Chicago. Bears 11-4-1 at home.  I know the Bears haven’t laid more than a TD in well over 5 years but again, where are the Jets getting their points from?

Take the Bears -8 but going to wait till kickoff to see the number.

Speaking of teams that are else selling their body parts for science, the Giants are home and that will be the last game of the year I attend.  As much as I enjoy the randy talk and spirited menu fare of my buddy, I can’t stomach the thought to pay to see this team nor freeze my ass off any more this year.  Giants trade Eli Apple and his annoying mother to the Saints (no big deal) and Snacks Harrison (huge deal, #1 run stopper in the NFL) to Detroit.  Washington escapes with a win against Dallas and Jason Garrett’s ability to fuck up a glass of water.  Washington 4-2 ATS of late and I know the history favors the Giants but I’m going against a team almost ready to bench their QB.

Take the Skins -1

The Niners just got smoked.  I don’t feel like going to a full handicap except that from one of my favorite gambling podcasts, RJ “Mushmouth” Bell’s Vegas dream preview, all of the guys love the Niners because the Cardinals stink and the last time they faced each other, the Niners lost but were +5 in turnovers.  They rebound against an awful Josh Rosen with turf toe.  4 likes from those sharps are enough for me to like it too.

Niners -1.5

 

Week 2 NFL ATS picks

lesko

This guy promised you free money.  I’m GIVING you free money!

When you’re good, take a bow.  And goddamn, am I good!  Last week, 6-1, repeat 6-1, while in Vegas with my buddies.  We ate like kings, drank the uncle who was too touchy feely with your sister, and screamed about all that FREEEE MONEY we received.  Dal under, AZ under, Cincy, Rams, Philly under, and the “what not to do in overtime” clinic put on by the Browns and Steelers brought me my final winner.  For those of you while are going to hear this story for the rest of your lives, Cle got 2 TDs late to tie the game up. I had the under at 44 and the score going into halftime was 21-21.  Translation: 99.5% of the time, I’m fucked.  But because Ben can’t close on the road or a mouthy coed in a bar bathroom and Cleveland went all Cleveland; neither team scored and the under held on by your mothers’ steel wool pubes.  The only I lost was the Saints money line and boy, was that a hit in the pocket as the money line was -550.  And now since we have more time to write this article while Predator is on in the background, my daughter is eating popcorn, and my wife is preparing for 4 eventual moments of randy talk, let’s get to the picks!

The Filthadelphia Eagles showed that they sucked less against Matt Ryan on the road last week.  Atlanta had 20 penalties, which is 4 less than crybaby Venus Williams had at the US Open.  Was it Venus or Serena?  I don’t care.  Tennis is a half step above soccer, NASCAR, and people who play Pokemon.  Ok fat nerds, 1997 is over.  Stop chasing fake Japanese turtles in traffic while listening to Goo Goo Dolls and go do a few laps around the track that bullies chased you around in gym class.  So now Philly goes down to Tamp-er, as that morbidly obese, real life Comic Book Guy, Mike Francesa would say.  Tampa took the tits out of the Saints in their own building last week.  Do you think Tampa has it in them for back to back wins?  Statistics don’t think so.  Fitzpatrick is 1-9-1 ATS after a win.  Philly 4-2 ATS and 5-1 on the road.  Tampa is 2-4 at home against Philly.  And they’ve lost Hargroves and Grimes in the secondary.  Oh yeah, DeSean Jackson is in concussion protocol after he scored a TD and DIDN’T spike the ball before the end zone…for once.  Lastly, Philly has had 10 days to prep for this game.  You’re only laying 3 and that’s a bargain.  

I’m taking buying the Birds down to -2.5

Just read that Marcus Mariota although banged up, is going to play this Sunday.  And apparently, backup Blaine Gabbert is going to play as well.  Well, you know the old saying, when you have 2 QBs, you have zero QBs.  Tennessee showed me nothing last week and although Watson wasn’t good at all in NE, the Texans were hanging tight against the Pats.  Houston 11-3 ATS as well as 5-2 ATS in Tennessee.  Hopkins is probable for Houston and Delanie Walker is out for the year for the Titans.  And hell, I even like the under 43 as there is supposed to be some rain.  Maybe the hurricane reaches there as plays a role.  

But I’m buying down the Texans to -2.5 for sure and maybe the under 44

The Steelers are back home where you’ll hear one of the worst accents in the world.  Yinz? Pop?  Jesus, can you people NOT home school your kids when you dropped out of the 6th grade to work in the coal mines?  But there are 3 things for sure: Death, Taxes, and Toronto relief pitcher Tyler Clippard shitting the bed.  And the 4th is usually Ben Rothliesberger at home; ESPECIALLY after a shit tie.  And who has the Cleveland under 5.5 for the season?  Your favorite neighborhood handicapper.  The Chiefs defense got gouged but hung on against the Chargers last week.  No Eric “Dingle” Berry for the Chiefs.  Ben and the boys actually close a game out in Pittsburgh while Leveon Bell misses out on another 500k game check.  The last time someone avoided Pennsylvania this long, it cost her the election.  Zing!

I’m buying the Steelers down to -2.5

The Jets shocked the world when they beat Detroit.  Detroit shocked everyone when Matt Stafford did his best Nathan Peterman impression.  Are the Jets going to score a lot of points again?  No. Miami is going to come into the Meadowlands and cool down from those points they put up in that marathon last week against the Titans.  Jets got 5 TOs and a lot of POT.  Sam Darnold won’t be winging it all over the place.  Miami is 6/8 under in NY so we’re going to make this easy and take.

Jets under 43

I love the Chargers in Buffalo because well, it’s Buffalo.  And they stink.  And they’re starting a rookie QB.  Also, the Chargers offense will light it up against a hangdog Buffalo D.  I know the whole, west coast team flying east for a 1pm game argument but the Bills are so bad, I don’t care.  I bought the point and took…

Chargers -6.5

Lastly, here are 6 words you RARELY hear me say: I love the Giants this week.  They had a chance or 2 to take down the Jags.  Dallas looks AWFUL, ZERO offense for them.  They didn’t cross the 50 until the THIRD QUARTER last week.  I just think the Giants are not doing 0-2 again this year.  And getting 3?  Sure, why not?  Watch this game be 21-10 Dallas.  But here’s an absolute LOCK:  The Giants are 7/8 with the under and Dallas is 5/5 in recent under.  Giants/Dallas go under 4/5.  Eli and his moderately confused looking face win in a low scoring fashion.

Take the Giants +3 and the Under 41.5

2018 NFL Week 1 picks ATS

Some of you love to wish away my summer.  Well congrats, it’s now gone.  Thanks a lot, you vortexes of fun.  The only good news is that leaves me with a couple of things: my annual trip to Vegas and of course, FREEEEEE MONEY!  So I’m writing out my picks on Thursday night, 9/6, and we’re going bare bones this article.  Why? Because my flight leaves in a few hours and you’re not paying me for these.  Even though last year, I was 58%.  

I took Philly under 45.  Because Nick Foles isn’t looking good in the preseason and at time of this article, he’s not looking good now.  

You should know that under are the soup d jours in the first 2 weeks of the year as most offensive still haven’t fully clicked.  And with that gem, I also locked in Pitt under 44 because Pitt has gone under 7/8 on the road, 8/11 playing Cleveland, and 5/5 when playing in Cleveland.  Pitt is also 13-2-1 under on the road, yikes.  And there are chances of thunderstorms.  Remember, Ben sucks on the road.  

Whenever a team has to travel far, don’t expect much scoring.  And with that theme, let’s also take the Cardinals under 43.5.  Washington has gone under 4/6 and 4/6 in AZ.  AZ has gone under 10/15 and 14/20.  And they have to travel 1500 miles with Alex Smith learning the ropes in game 1.  New QB for Arizona, uh oh. Wait, never mind.  It’s Sam Bradford, who’s barely played in the last 3 years.  Carry on.

The sharps talked me into taking the Bengals +3 (I’m buying the half point).  Luck hasn’t thrown downfield all preseason?  And who else on that offense scares you?  Exactly.  How is their defense?  Still garbage?  Thought so.  Bengals front 7 is solid and also has a good o line.  I might even take the under 48 as Indy is 5/5 on the under and 5/5 under at home.  Also, 5/5 at home playing Cincy.  

In my only favorite of the week, no way (watch it happen now) the Jets go into Detroit and cover.  Rookie QB Sam Darnold won’t be looking to air it out, he’ll be playing it safe in his debut.  Jets are 2-5 ATS and 1-3-1 on the road.  Take the Lions -6.

Dallas and Carolina ALEADY have banged up offensive lines?  Jesus, that was fast. Cowboys on the road: under hit 4/5 and 8/9.  Dallas with no one on offense but Zeke?  I MAY take Carolina under 42.

I love the Saints but I don’t know about laying that NAWWWWNE and a half.  I may take them on the money line at -440 but let’s see…

Those are your picks for week 1 and if you want to follow along on my win total bets, I took Baltimore under 8, Cleveland under 5.5 (GTFO, they’re not going from 0 to 6 wins in a season, and Buffalo under 5.5.  

 

NFL week 17 picks ATS

I knew I jinxed myself when I said I haven’t had a losing weekend since late october.  2-5 was not the way to spend Christmas but shit, these things happen.  Hope you enjoyed Star Wars as much as I did.  And I recently did see 2 new films that you may enjoy:  Film reviews: 3 Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri and Darkest Hour And now we go into the last week of the year which is just as confusing as week 1.  Playoffs are mostly set with seedings up in the air which means some teams are half assing it or completely resting their starters.  So I’m going to do more totals or games where there is some meaning.  

The Raiders head to LA for a quasi meaningless game as the Chargers need help to make the playoffs.  So for all you LA residents, get ready for Raiders fans (cholos) to have cockfights in that soccer stadium parking lot of yours.  Let’s get ready for some cold, hard facts.  Oak has hit the under in 5/5, 8/11 on the road (including last week in Philly, one of the 2 I got right), 4/6 vs LA, 13/17 in LA.  Phil Rivers has been focusing more on his 29 kids than scoring points as his team his hit the under in 5/5 and 5/7 at home.  I think Oak +7 is a play

But I like the LA under 42 better.

My NY Giants just have a new GM who already just started cleaning house.  Got rid of the head of personnel evaluation and cut OL Bobby Ross for refusing to practice and play in Sunday’s game.  In come the Redskins off a win and Kirk Cousins playing for a contract.  It’s gonna be cold in Giants Stadium (sorry you Jets fans squatters, it will always be Giants stadium) and let’s see who’s out for the Giants: Evan Engram, Sterling Sheppard, Landon Collins, and Eli Apple.  But I would consider it a positive for the other team if Apple was in because his mouthy mother could cover better than her pansy ass kid can.  This team has ZERO offense which is exactly how many points they scored last week in Arizona.  Oh yeah, JPP and his 7.5 fingers is also questionable.  I’m 0-2 betting against the Giants this year as KC and Den both decided to take a steamy diarrhea dump on themselves in the ONLY 2 Giants wins all year.  Skins are 4-2 ATS or late and 12-6 on the road.  Giants are 2-5 ATS at home and 3-6 overall.  Third time’s the charm.

Take the Skins -3

Minnesota is about to lock up a first round bye if they can take down the Bears.  Shouldn’t be a problem as the Vikings are 9-1 of late, 7-1 at home, and 4-1.  The ONLY thing I’m worried about is the funky number of 11.5 for the Vikings.  I think the Vikings come out flying and shut down the anemic Bears offense.  Bears are 2-4-1 ATS of late, 5-10 on the road, and 1-4 @ Minnesota.  John Fox will be gone before the post game buffet is laid out.  Get ready to say these words in the same sentence: Case Keenum and playoffs.  Here are a couple of fun stats: Vikes are 6-0 for the under as home favorites of 10 points or more. Vikings are under 4/6 of late, 4/5 @ home, and 4/6 home vs Chi.    The Bears are 5-1 for the under as an underdog of 10+ points.  Bears are 4/5 of late with the under, 5/8 playing the Vikings, and 4/6 in Minnesota.  

I really like the Vikings under 38 and the Vikings first half.  I kind of like the Vikings -12 but prefer the other 2 plays.

In one of the top, “who gives a shit” games of the week, the Colts finish the year against the Texans who still look like they’re playing in that hurricane.  This is going to be Chuck Pagano’s last game so the Colts may resemble an NFL team for once.  The Texans have TJ Yates as quarterback this week and I’ll be honest when I say I’d rather have TJ Hooker behind center.  And no DeAndre Hopkins this week either so I’ll play on the sentimentality factor and….

Lay -5 and grab the Colts.

I think the Bengals and Ravens go higher than 40 points this week.  Why?  The trends say under as Cincy has hit the under in Bal 7/10 and 12/18 overall.  But Baltimore hasn’t put up less than 20 points since 10/22.  And Cincy has put up at least 20 in 5/7.  No Vontez Burfect for Cincy either.  Bal needs the game and will want to stay motivated.

Take Bal over 40

In another, “who gives a shit game”, the Cardinals fly (pun intended) to Seattle who actually can make the playoffs with some help.  Cardinals are 4-0-1 ATS of late but they suck on the road, 1-6.  They also have trouble with Seattle, 2-4-1 ATS.  And why doth thou give a dookie about this game?  Because Bruce Arians is supposedly retiring due to health reasons.  And you’re getting 9 points with a team who’s actually trying for no apparent reason.  Yes, Seattle is healthier.  But they haven’t exactly been lighting it up of late, 3-5-1 and 1-4 at home ATS.  I’m tired so no more jokes or analysis.

Take the Redbirds and the 9 free points. 

The lock of the week is the Saints game but not for the reason you may think.  The Saints need this game to ensure a home game.  The Bucs have played well of late but let’s tip my hand a little bit.  Bucs have went under in 5/5 at home and 6/9 overall.  5/6 vs NO and 8/9 at home vs NO.  Saints are 4/5 on the road with the under.  This game could easily be a Saints blowout or a squeaker and I just don’t give 2 flying purple dildos.  But I will guaran-damn-tee that this game…

Goes under 48.5

Kind of debating about: Cincy +9.5, Jets +15, and Niners -3…

Week 14 NFL Picks ATS

“Kevin, where’s Reagan?”  “Kevin, is Reagan coming back this week?”  Hey, did you see I went 5-3 last week?  “Yeah but we want to see Reagan eat her cookie.”  That was all I heard!  You guys would rather see my daughter and I make cutesy-poo faces (it’s adorable) than hear my winning picks and capitalize on free money this Christmas?  No wonder school test scores are down and Madea films continue to make money.  Good news, you’re seeing her today as she’s feeling completely better and eating cookies faster than Roy Moore eats 15 year old asses.  We’re already off to a fast start as I took Atlanta on Thursday night so that puts me in the “nice” column to start week 14.

The Tennessee Titans are insanely overrated.  If you had them last week -7, you absolutely stole one for the books as Derrick Henry broke a run for a late TD that was just meant to kill the clock and cover.  Now, they go to Arizona where as a home dog, they’re 24-13.  AZ isn’t playing for anything but the way they’re going about business, you would think otherwise.  Tenn on the road is awful, 1-4 ATS.  AZ vs Tenn is 4-1.  

Fly with the Cards at the free +2.5 points

Cincinatti played Pittsburgh on Monday night in a game that was uglier than watching Rebel Wilson eating.  Cincy 4-0 ATS and 13-5 vs teams with losing records.  The Bears are just goddamn awful and John Fox is 4 weeks away from a pink slip and shitty gold watch.  The Bears are recently 1-3-1 and 4-9 on the road.  They’re not going to get motivated playing for a lame duck coach.  Vontaze Burfict is out for Cincy but I don’t care.  I see them taking out their anger from shitting the bed on Monday on the lifeless Bears.

The Bengals eat the Bears like a tourist who jumped into their cage at the zoo, -6.5

Kansas City is back home after failing to put the dagger in the Jets.  Oakland comes in after unconvincingly beating the Geno Smith led Giants.  KC has the under hit 12/17 at home, 7/9 vs Oak, 17/25 vs Oak, and Oakland is 6/9 with the under on the road.  And with all of that, I’m taking the over today.  WHAT??  You just gave 13 stats saying under!  Well, Andy Reid isn’t calling the plays and the new guy took the reins off Alex Smith and then against the Jets, they threw smoke all over the place.  They have nice weather in KC today so no crazy winds.  The Oakland defense is trash AND they’re getting Crabtree back.  We all know how bad the Chiefs D is.  And the last time these teams played, they combined for over 60.  

Take the over 48 with confidence.

Carolina is home against the Vikings after going to NO and getting a spanking (just like I said.)  Fun facts: Carolina is 9-2 and has 7 wins as a home dog, also recently 4-1 ATS and SU.  This is the 3rd straight game for Minnesota and something’s got to give.  I think this is the week they finally lose one.  Khalil and Olsen are probable for Carolina as well.  I know Carolina is an unimpressive 2-3-1 at home but I think they bounce back after a loss and Minnesota can afford a loss; especially coming to the tail end of a road trip.  

Take Cam and the boys +2.5

Miami is getting a bushel of points, 11, home against the Patriots.  I know, betting against the Patriots is suicide 9/10 times.  Yes, I know the Pats are 12-0 in November or later.  Here’s why I like Miami: Pats are 1-3-1 in Miami and no Gronk.  I think the Pats run the ball and kill the clock.  I also think the Pats may get caught looking forward to Pittsburgh next week.  11 is the perfect number to backdoor with.  

Dolphins and the +11 sounds like a plan to me.

The lock of the week is a no-brainer.  I’m talking a no-brainer on the scale of the scale of, “Do I eat steak or do I fuck Lena Dunham?”  The Philadelphia Eagles were brought back to Earth last week in Seattle.  They stayed on the West Coast this week to practice and keep their body clocks right.  The Rams players are dealing with the fires ravaging their lands like hipsters ravaging their parents’ dreams of not being sniveling pussies.  This is going to be the game of the day but I think Philly answers back for being held down in Seattle.  And I promise you, those dirt merchant Eagles fans will take over the stadium where they have an AVERAGE home field situation. 

Eagles as a pick em on the road.

Week 12 NFL picks against the spread

4-3 last week as GB smoked that over to put me above .500 for the week.  Let’s give a shoutout to that Jacksonville coach, fuckwad Doug Marrone, as he decided erase all good karma by throwing the the ball deep in Jax territory with little time left on the clock in the 4th quarter in a tied game.  Common sense would have had him run out the clock so they can get to OT.  Jacksonville had a nice comeback, tying it up from down 13 and then watched my money disappear like Rob Schneider’s career as Phil Dawson kicked a 57 yd fg to seal it for the Cardinals.  Indy lost by .5 as they gave up a late TD and blew a decent lead.  However, the Pats cruised to the over as the aforementioned GB/Pitt over.  The Niners hung tight for awhile but Russell Wilson poured it on late.  The Bengals did smoke the Browns like I foresaw as well.  Do I go back to the well with the Jags?  Read on and find out.  BTW, I took the Skins on Thursday night and Kirk Cousins went Kirk Cameron on me.  Praying for something good to happen and it never did.  Now THAT’S how you write a joke.  So I’m 0-1 to start the week.  Also, I put down money on the Saints to win the NFC championship at 6-1 odds.  Wish me luck.

Short answer, yep.  And as sad as this is going to sound, I have Blake Bortles going for me to determine if I get a first round bye in fantasy football.  You’re probably asking yourself if I’m throwing the game so I don’t get the bye by starting Bortles and I would too if the shoe was on the other foot.  Problem is, I drafted Eli Manning very late and then dropped him for Alex Smith who played out of his mind for nearly 2 months.  Then Alex Smith started looking like Alex Trebek for too long.  My buddy snaked Case Keenum off the wire so I was left with Bortles or Gabbert.  So cross your fingers that Bortles eviscerates the Indy defense which resembles Jenna Jameson’s butthole.  Let’s cross your toes and tongue that Marquis Lee and Leonard Fournette also have good days for your favorite sports handicapper.  The Jags are 5-0 ATS vs Indy and that should be all you need to know.  Ok, another nugget.  Indy is 2-4 ATS on the road.  The Jags losing in such an ugly fashion should be the perfect time to take them in the bounce back to put them smack in the middle of the division race.  

Take the Jags -9.5

What can you say about the Patriots that hasn’t been said, especially the cheating and shitty fans elements?  But give the White Devil his due, Bellichek is a covering machine and this week, those rapscallions are in Buffalo which is almost another home game for them.  Pats are recently 5-0 ATS, 7-1 on the road, and 4-1 in Buff.  Buffalo recently 2-4-1, 2-4-1 vs the Pats, and 2-10-1 home vs NE.  In the last month, Buffalo has put up over 20 2x but both when they were getting blown out in garbage time.  Buffalo has no WR and the Pats D has improved of late.  I don’t see much going for the Bills except a lot of, “wait till next decade” talk.

Take the Pats -9

Minnesota has been on one hell of a cinderella ride this year, despite losing their rookie RB, Dalvin Cook, and riding the coattails of a QB named Case.  Seriously, who names their kid, Case?  I hope his parents finished the joke and named his brother, Closed.  Wacka, wacka, wacka.  The Vikes had 10 days off after dismantling the Lions to prep for the Falcons who have had a mild resurgence.  I think that the Vikings being 15-8 on the road and Atlanta 1-3-1 vs Minny should be good enough reasons to take the Purple team this week.  I also like the over and the numbers back it up: Minn is 4/5 hitting the overs and hit 5/7 of them on the road.  Falcons have put up 30+ 3 times this year but don’t expect them to replicate that against a solid Vikes D.  

Take the Vikings +3 and the over 47

The Lions were smoked last week and now they head to Baltimore, who couldn’t cover against the hapless Texans.  Matt Stafford looked like he ate John Madden before the game on Thanksgiving so I think they play better.  Baltimore doesn’t inspire confidence at home, as they’re 2-4 ATS.  And Detroit of late is 2-4-1 ATS.  But I tell you what jumps out at me, the over.  Detroit has been hot with the over of late, 6/7 and 4/6 vs Bal.  The Ravens have recently hit the over 5/7.  So let’s see if backwards hat Matt Stafford can put up enough to hit and Joe Flacco puts up his usual pick 6 so we can hit…

The over 43.5

The lock of the week was easier than all of your mothers this week.  Yep, 41 years old and not afraid to drop a, “your mother” joke in there.  This isn’t the NY Times, folks.  The Saints lost a tough one in LA last week and now they’re back to home, sweet home.  When the Saints are home and have a winning record, they’re 17-3-1 out of their last 21.  Holy.  Christ.  Saints are 4-0-1 vs Carolina while the Panthers are 2-4 in NO.  Saints are recently 6-3 ATS and now after a loss?  Yeah, they’re fired up and playing Carolina who A) got lucky that the Jets went FULL Jets and gave up a late lead AGAIN.  Oh yeah, Carolina backdoored the cover with a late FG.  Olsen is banged up again and Cam didn’t play well against the Jets.  I just see the #Pangeabirthmarkface demolishing the Panthers at home and really no other way around it.  I kind of like the over but I don’t know if Carolina will put up their end to cover.  Although the last 2 times these teams played in NO, they combined for 79 points BOTH times.  

Love the Saints -5 and maybe the over 48.  

I kind of like:

The Jets to bounce back +3.  KC had a tough time in Giants Stadium last week and the Jets play well as home dogs.

LAC -13 getting revenge for the Browns beating them last year.

Rams -7 in AZ.  Do you think Blaine Gabbert keeps this up, even though they’re home again?  I doubt it.

Niners +3 who are 4-2 on the road while the Bears are 0-4 ATS at home as favorites.

Detroit +3 who has had 10 days to prep against a team who has played nothing but backup QBs in their last stretch.  Bal 2-4 ATS at home as well.

TB over 45.  Jameis Winston is back so I’m laying off this.  The line opened GB +2 but the pros jumped on that immediately and now is GB -2.5