NFL Week 7 picks ATS

Last week, your hero got back on track!  5-2 for the week as I hit the Atl -3 (57 yarder, holy shit!), Niners over, Pitt +2, Den +7 and under 50.5.  Lost Giants under and Titans.  26-17 for the year, putting me at 60% for the season.  Last week, I reported 60% but I was off by a few points, 58%.  Remember, Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber is on Twitch TV and Facebook Live on Fridays at 5pm.  Looks us up there under Be Terrific TV and here’s a link from 10/19’s show with Gerard Haran!

 

And now, more FREEEEEEEE MONEY!

In my lock of the week, the Chargers and Titans go to London to play a game as well as marvel how the majority of women wear fake eyelashes.  Found that out when I was there 2 weeks ago.  Also, in their casino at Leicester, the dealers stay on soft 17 in blackjack.  BUT they don’t take their second card until all of the players have acted.   And the Brits at my tables didn’t know what the hell they were doing so be warned.  Back to the handicap.  Chargers stayed in Cleveland after they shit on that town just like life does every day.  But they’re still a west coast time playing at 9:30am EST.  Tennessee just got done not scoring against Baltimore.  And we know how these early games usually fair.  Raiders/Seattle this year, under.  Jags/Ravens last year, under.  Minnesota/Cleveland last year, under.  Tennessee has a top 10 defense and AVERAGES 17 fantasy points to QBs; only 2 QBs have went above 17 pts in 6 weeks.  And Phil Rivers had a light passing game against a solid Cle pass defense, Melvin Gordon gouged them for 3 ground TDs.  Speaking of Melvin Gordon, he’s the third of his family with the name Melvin.  C’mon, Melvin isn’t a great name to hang on your son for future generations.  Don’t give me that “family name” argument.  How about a LITTLE originality for the kid?  Oh, and as of Saturday night, Gordon is now downgraded to questionable and a game time decision.  Tennessee is weaker against the run so that’s a huge blow if he sits and he’ll be hampered if he does give it a go.  Some numbers?  Sure!  Titans have gone under 4/5, they can’t run nor pass with a banged up Mariota.  And Henry has been god awful for them on the ground.  Where are the points coming from?  Not from 2 jet lagged teams and especially ones with key guys on offense that are out/banged up.

Lock of the week, Tenn under 45.5 

Tampa Bay fired head coach turned/defensive coordinator/turned employed buffoon.  Watching him coach Atlanta was like watching Lena Dunham try and throw a football.  Horrendously awkward and zero respect given.  Tampa also just lost a heartbreaker to Atlanta and their “defense.”  Jesus, more people have been touched against a blind kid in Red Rover than Atlanta’s defense has.  Jameis “1 star Uber passenger rating” Winston was impressive carving up the Falcons last week.  Tampa leads the NFL in YPP at 7.2 Cle does have a good pass defense but as we saw last week, they’re awful on the ground.  Peyton Barber should have a good game as well.  Cleveland has given up 38 and 42 points in 2 of the last 3 weeks.  As for Tampa defense, it stinks worse than Chinatown in the summertime.  Tampa hasn’t given up less than 20 points SINCE LAST YEAR.  Hell, they’ve only given up <30 ONCE this year.  Cleveland has gone over 12/17 on the road.  Tampa has gone over 5/5 and oh yeah, Tampa 4-2 ATS at home.  

Take the Bucs 3-5 and I got the over 50 but now it’s 52. But don’t take an Uber pool with Jameis Winston.

The Saints are off the bye and they head down to Baltimore where it’s so bad that even the tourists won’t dare do The Wire walking tour.  Saints are fantastic off the bye at home, 2-0.  But on the road after a bye, 0-2.  Saints also 2-4 SU on the road.  Ravens have top defense, 4.2 YPP, and the #3 run defense.  Oh yeah, it’s supposed to be quite windy tomorrow, winds around 15mph.  Saints are 1-6-1 ATS vs Bal.  Baltimore both 6-1 SU and ATS at home vs the Saints.  Let’s talk the total which is now 49.  Saints are obviously are great home and dome team. But playing in Baltimore, the under went 4/6.  And Baltimore of late, 4/5 under.  I can’t tee it up anymore so…

Take Baltimore -3 and under 49.  I locked in the other day at Bal -2.5 and under 50 so bully for me.

Last one of the day.  I hit the Niners over by early 3rd quarter on monday night.  I ask you, what’s better than that, hitting your over just after the halfway point?  I’ll allow going out to a bar and having the hottest girl come up to you, buy you a drink, and then asking to go back to your place. The Niners defense is worse than a prolapsed anus.  Ever see one of those in a porn?  Yeah, that causes you to go softer than seeing your mom naked.  Unless your Pam Anderson’s kid, then getting tumescent is a daily routine and no one came blame you.  Some stats: SF over 5/5 and 5/6 over at home.  Rams over 8/12 of late and 8/11 on the road.  Rams secondary is banged up and on the road again.  They’re putting up pts for sure and their secondary isn’t as good without Talib.  No Cooper Kupp for the Rams though however they’ll slice through the Niners defense which has allowed as many points as morning after diarrhea attacks I have in Vegas after all day drinking sessions.  The Niners D hasn’t given up <20 points since LAST DECEMBER.  52 may be a lot but the Rams are good for at LEAST 31 against this poop squad.

Niners over 52

Superbowl Picks against the Spread

The day all eyes (except communists) are turned to the TV, Superbowl Sunday!  Denver! Carolina!  Cam and the race baiters vs Peyton and the feel good karma.  What say you?  Before we get to the picks, I wanted to say that I created a damn good video (with my daughter) that refuses to upload so you get the article instead.  Thanks Obama.

Carolina -5.5 over/under 44

A little breakdown, why not?  Carolina has the MVP Cam Newton, Greg (the leg, look it up ladies and alternative lifestyle living men) Olsen, and Jonathan Olsen on offense.  Luke Keuchly and Josh Norman head up a ball hawk defense that pull in more sixes than my buddies do during a night out at the bar.  Denver has old man Manning (great name for a Scooby Doo villain), Denaryius Thomas and his jailbird mother, Aqib Talib, and Danny Trevathan head up the #1 defense in the NFL.  

The early money was on Carolina, driving it from an opening line of -3.5 up to 6.  The public drove that line up faster than Hillary Clinton polarizes an audience.  The whales that fly into Vegas the night before started to dump money on the Broncos, dropping it to down to 5, and now it went back up to 5.5  The over/under opened at 45.5 and now it’s dropped down to 44.  Translation: everyone thinks this will be a low scoring event.  Now, if you think Carolina is going to win, it will be in a blowout fashion with the over easily achieved.  If you think Denver is going to win, you probably think it will be a 21-17 type game.  What’s my pick???

Denver +5.5

I know, I was huge on Carolina after they dismantled my Super Bowl pick, the Cardinals.  Here’s why I’m going with Denver.

A) EVERYONE will want Denver to win; it’s the quintessential feel good story.  Peyton’s done, let him go out on the highest note…unless you’re watching the games at home and you’re sick of those goddamn Nationwide/Papa John’s commercials and hoping Peyton gets runs over by a driver with no insurance while eating that awful pizza.

B) The weather is currently 63 degrees which helps Peyton immensely.  But Kevin, he played in 50 degree weather against the Seahawks 2 years ago in the Superbowl.  Yeah but the Carolina D is not the Seahawks team from 2 years ago.

C) The Broncos are looking to grind out the clock and that’s what they did against the Pats.  They can’t keep up in a shootout so look for a lot of running and quick passes.

D) Carolina is notorious for putting up big leads but then giving up the late back door cover.  If Denver does go down by a lot quickly, Carolina will go into soft coverage and probably let some points score.  And remember, Denver doesn’t have to win, just cover.

E) And I saved my best point for last: Carolina has ALREADY planned their victory parade. The kiss of death…only bad things can happen when you do that.

I’m still scratching my head with the over/under and I haven’t put a wager down yet or may not even do so.  I’m waiting for the line to move BUT if I had to pick one now, I’m taking…

The over 44

Superbowls are primarily overs and I think more points will be scored, more like 24-21.  There is LITTLE room for the under and I haven’t seen many recent superbowls, sans my NY Giants vs the Pats, where the under hits.

Prop bets

Number of times Kevin refills his beverage when Coldplay is playing

3.5

OVER

Number of times Kevin yells at the TV, “HOW THE FUCK IS COLDPLAY DOING THE HALFTIME SHOW!  I DON’T KNOW ANYONE WHO OWNS ONE OF THEIR ALBUMS?”

19

OVER

Number of times Kevin wonders aloud why Beyonce married Jay Z when she has plenty of her own money yet her husband looks like a sad catfish.

3

Under, I’m just restating the obvious

Number of minutes Kevin watches the halftime show

5

Under.  I’d rather spend time openly mocking my friend who is a Cowboys fan.