NFL Picks week 6

3-4 last week, first losing week since week 1.  Bad week but not “new Wu-Tang album: bad.  

Tangent: Jesus, it’s like the Wu Tang doesn’t even try anymore.  We can all admit ODB was the glue that held them together, right?  Their solo works are fine but as a group; it’s like one leg of Devastor (Transformers reference.  I could’ve made a Voltron reference but I have standards. Sorry, not sorry, you commoners) is missing and he moves like a kid with polio trying to dance without his braces.  I know we all wish for our bands to reunite that have broken up due to death or hatred for other bandmates.  Sometimes you  can recapture the lightning in the bottle like Stone Temple Pilots, Alice in Chains, or Dead Kennedys.  But be careful what you wish for because you can easily get Guns N Roses with Buckethead, Misfits with Jerry Only as the lead singer, Van Halen with Gary Cherone, or Motley Crue with John Corabi

Here’s why gambling is both great and willing to give you a coronary at a moment’s notice.  I took the Minnesota under, 44, on monday night.  What’s the score at the half?  3-2.  Yep, you read that right.  30 minutes later I check again, they are 30 points in the game.  WHAT?? Look again 5 minutes later, 37 total points with 10 minutes left.  Jesus Christ, I could lose this game.  Then Chicago and the Vikings go back doing what they do best, do their best to get their coaches fired and not score.  The under hits, and your hero closes the loss margin to end the week.

This week is so chock full of huge spreads that Meredith Markovits may bust in like the Kool Aid man and start emptying trays down her horse face.  Taking a favorite with a big spread is like fucking without a rubber in the dark.  There are times where you catch pocket aces and get lucky with a good looking lady but more often than not; you get caught with a Lena Dunham lookalike who has a vicious case of anal warts.  So buyer beware on the big spreads and you better be damn sure that you want to lay double digits.  Let’s get to the picks!

My favorite team is the NY Giants and let’s call it how we see it.  I’ll see more life in Terry Schaivo than I will the Giants in Denver.  Let’s see who’s out: their star WR who does his best Simon Phoenix impression.  Hair, not bad ass-ness.  Their bi-polar WR and their slot WR.  Oh yeah, the center, starting LB and DE too.  And you think they’re going to come into Denver with a offense that makes the kids at an all Jewish school look like the 2000 St Louis Rams score points?  I don’t.  I know I just read you the riot act about taking big spreads (See, a literary curveball!) but when the obvious is right in your face like Hillary Clinton’s awful laugh, take the wallet out!  The Giants aren’t scoring and if they do, it’s because Goodell implemented a mercy rule overnight.  Denver is off the bye and oh yeah, 10-3-1 ATS.  And Den has hit been under in 4/6 at home. Denver could run this shit up and hit the over themselves so be careful about the under.  Lay the points and hope Mcadoo gets run over by the Denver Bronco horse.

I love Den -11.5 and kind of like the under at 39.  

The Rams travel to the white trash venus trap known as Jacksonville.  The Rams had 4 trips to the red zone last week vs Seattle to walk away with just 3 points and even had a chance to win in the last minute.  I say they gain redemption as the Jags are 2-5 at home ATS.  Rams are 6-2 SU in their last 8 and that bodes well as they’re getting 2.5 in Jax.

Take the Rams +2.5

The Patriots have had 10 days off to prep after they barely beat TB.  And the most dangerous thing the Pats can have is time to do is prep.  Oh yeah, Gronk is back too. The Jets are playing well and the Pats D is still rhino poop.  I can’t figure out if the Pats are gonna cover but I can tell you that they’ll be points a plenty.  

Take the Pats over 48

The Saints are back home from a bye after winning a stinkaroo in London against the Dolphins.  The Saints are 5-0 ATS after a bye and won 10 straight in October.  They’re 5-2 ATS vs Detroit.  Stafford is a bit banged up and Detroit doesn’t put up points on the road.  Don’t be a hero, just win money.  This is going to be as easy as betting on Harvey Weinstein vs a plant.

Take the Saints -4.5

Lastly, the Bucs travel to play a Cardinals team who looks as uninspiring as a new Amy Schumer special.  Bucs have had 10 days to prep after shitting the bed against the Pats (Again, fuck you Nick Folk) to play a Cardinals team that’s 1-5 ATS at home.  Winston and the boys look to avenge the beating they got last year in the desert so look for redemption.

Take the Bucs -1.5

 

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Superbowl Picks against the Spread

The day all eyes (except communists) are turned to the TV, Superbowl Sunday!  Denver! Carolina!  Cam and the race baiters vs Peyton and the feel good karma.  What say you?  Before we get to the picks, I wanted to say that I created a damn good video (with my daughter) that refuses to upload so you get the article instead.  Thanks Obama.

Carolina -5.5 over/under 44

A little breakdown, why not?  Carolina has the MVP Cam Newton, Greg (the leg, look it up ladies and alternative lifestyle living men) Olsen, and Jonathan Olsen on offense.  Luke Keuchly and Josh Norman head up a ball hawk defense that pull in more sixes than my buddies do during a night out at the bar.  Denver has old man Manning (great name for a Scooby Doo villain), Denaryius Thomas and his jailbird mother, Aqib Talib, and Danny Trevathan head up the #1 defense in the NFL.  

The early money was on Carolina, driving it from an opening line of -3.5 up to 6.  The public drove that line up faster than Hillary Clinton polarizes an audience.  The whales that fly into Vegas the night before started to dump money on the Broncos, dropping it to down to 5, and now it went back up to 5.5  The over/under opened at 45.5 and now it’s dropped down to 44.  Translation: everyone thinks this will be a low scoring event.  Now, if you think Carolina is going to win, it will be in a blowout fashion with the over easily achieved.  If you think Denver is going to win, you probably think it will be a 21-17 type game.  What’s my pick???

Denver +5.5

I know, I was huge on Carolina after they dismantled my Super Bowl pick, the Cardinals.  Here’s why I’m going with Denver.

A) EVERYONE will want Denver to win; it’s the quintessential feel good story.  Peyton’s done, let him go out on the highest note…unless you’re watching the games at home and you’re sick of those goddamn Nationwide/Papa John’s commercials and hoping Peyton gets runs over by a driver with no insurance while eating that awful pizza.

B) The weather is currently 63 degrees which helps Peyton immensely.  But Kevin, he played in 50 degree weather against the Seahawks 2 years ago in the Superbowl.  Yeah but the Carolina D is not the Seahawks team from 2 years ago.

C) The Broncos are looking to grind out the clock and that’s what they did against the Pats.  They can’t keep up in a shootout so look for a lot of running and quick passes.

D) Carolina is notorious for putting up big leads but then giving up the late back door cover.  If Denver does go down by a lot quickly, Carolina will go into soft coverage and probably let some points score.  And remember, Denver doesn’t have to win, just cover.

E) And I saved my best point for last: Carolina has ALREADY planned their victory parade. The kiss of death…only bad things can happen when you do that.

I’m still scratching my head with the over/under and I haven’t put a wager down yet or may not even do so.  I’m waiting for the line to move BUT if I had to pick one now, I’m taking…

The over 44

Superbowls are primarily overs and I think more points will be scored, more like 24-21.  There is LITTLE room for the under and I haven’t seen many recent superbowls, sans my NY Giants vs the Pats, where the under hits.

Prop bets

Number of times Kevin refills his beverage when Coldplay is playing

3.5

OVER

Number of times Kevin yells at the TV, “HOW THE FUCK IS COLDPLAY DOING THE HALFTIME SHOW!  I DON’T KNOW ANYONE WHO OWNS ONE OF THEIR ALBUMS?”

19

OVER

Number of times Kevin wonders aloud why Beyonce married Jay Z when she has plenty of her own money yet her husband looks like a sad catfish.

3

Under, I’m just restating the obvious

Number of minutes Kevin watches the halftime show

5

Under.  I’d rather spend time openly mocking my friend who is a Cowboys fan.