NFL Picks Week 4 ATS

6-3 last week!  2 out of 3 weeks, I’ve won you money.  And not one of you sent me a cut or a thank you note.  Didn’t your mothers teach you better manners?  I didn’t take Thursday night’s game as I debated about Minnesota (push) and the under (definite miss.  I think we all know the Rams over will be the lock of the week for the season.)  

Breakdown: I took Indy and the under, Jets under, Cincy over, Miami, and the Saints.  The Giants under missed with exactly 1 second left on the clock and of course, that was the big bet of the week.  Lost the TB under on Monday night, lost the Niners when Jimmy G snapped that ACL but will still be snapping that porn star puss.  15-8 on the year, why the fuck don’t I have a gambling show yet??!?!?!  

The Oakland Raiders are 0-3, just like most of their fans’ parole hearings.  Are they that bad or the victims of bad luck?  They’ve blown 3 leads at halftime and now they get Baker Mayfield on the road in his first start?  In the black hole?  Remember when betting, you’re playing the number, which is Oak -2.5 here.  Home field is 3 points so what Vegas is trying to say is Cleveland is .5 better than Oakland on a neutral site?  With a QB who has ONE HALF under his belt.  Not buying it.  And Oakland is due for a win, especially at home.  Oh yeah, rookie QBs making their first start on the road?  ZERO out of 10.

Take the Raiders -2.5.  I may even take the under 45 as Oak under 9/10, 5/5 at home, and 4/5 vs Cleveland.

You know what Carson Wentz didn’t do last week?  Throw for a shitload of yards and TDs, just like I said he wouldn’t.  And now they face a rather stingy Tennessee defense.  And Tennessee’s Mariota looks like he got hit by that volcano eruption in his native Hawaii.  Tennessee is also a heavy run offense.  How do the Eagles fare against the run?  #2, just like me in the bathroom 5 minutes ago?  Titans have scored totals of 17, 20, and 9 pts this year.  Eagles have scored 20, 21, and 18 this year.  This game screams 17-13 so let’s be wise and take 

Tennessee under 41.5, I bought the .5

Atlanta defense is like the testimony of the second Cavanaugh accuser, possibly full of holes and supposedly gang banged up.  Missing both starting safeties is not a way to start against Andy Dalton, who has been slinging it all over the place.  Much like a recently divorced woman at an Appelebee’s on a Friday night. 1/2 off appetizers will get her pants fully off in that bathroom!  Falcons just played nearly 5 quarters against the Saints and that defense is as gassed like a fat kid doing suicides.  Not shooting up a school and then killing himself, I’m talking about running back and forth for an hour straight followed up by puking. You know,  the good ol days where coaches would call you a faggot for missing the cutoff man.  Cincy lists AJ Green as probable so that’s huge.  The only thing that scares is the line opened +5.5 and now it’s down to 3.5.

Take the Bengals while you can get the 3.5, it’s still a good number.

Sigh, I said I don’t do normally do this…I know, I sound like a woman during a one night stand.  But I’m going to make a case for the NY Giants and break my own rule of betting them.  Saints played nearly 5 quarters last week.  And that defense stinks worse than my house after a night of my wife’s Buffalo wing dip (to die for) and beers.  Saints defense AVERAGES 33 points again.  And now they’re on the road but more importantly, outside of a dome.  The Giants beat them the last time they came to Giants stadium and now they’re catching 3.5?  Saints are 1-5 SU in NY and the under has hit 5/7 when they’ve played?  Vernon and Apple are out again on defense.  Then again, they were out last week against Houston and they won.  

Let’s cross those fingers and toes and take the Giants +3.5

I kinda like but probably won’t bet: GB (home against a Bills team who shot their load last week), Detroit +3, Jets +7.5 (3rd road game in a row kind of scares me about the Jets but the number is right), Chargers -10.5 (Large number, may buy it down to 9.5, depends how I do with the 1pm games.)

And now it’s time for the lock of the week.  Quite shocked this number is moving this way and a bit annoyed I locked in too earlier.  But the Colts -1.5 (now a pick ’em or even +1) is a steal.  Hopkins went through limited practice with a couple of injuries, limited as questionable, but he’ll go.  And Houston’s secondary is trash.  Houston 2-7-2 playing Indy, 2-5-1 in Indy.  Colts could’ve won in weeks 1 and 3 EASILY.  They’re 2-1 ATS and could be 2-1-1 if they didn’t turn it over late week 1.  

I have the Colts at -1.5 but you can get them at a Pick or even +1, get that NOW if you can.

 

 

 

 

 

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NFL picks Week 1

I love the summer, absolutely adore it.  Nothing more sad than seeing that first leaf change to a bright yellow.  Having that first chilling evening or morning.  Seeing the sun set by 8pm.  A shitty stream of films in the theater.  But, there’s just one redeeming thing about the fall.  Football is back.  Which means I go back to Vegas for the week 1 games and as you’re reading this, I’m there now.  And I’m probably drunk, like 85% of the time.  I have a couple of gigs when I’m out there, at the Sapphire club and Southpointe Casino so if you’re in town, come check out my bits.  

But before I get into them, I’d be remiss if I didn’t promote that my brainchild, “Comics Watching Comics,” is now up on Amazon Video!  Go binge Season 1 and tell me what you think!  Also, Comics Watching Comics T shirts are available for $20 which includes shipping.  Contact me on how to get your S-XL shirt

Here are the picks for week 1:

I’m writing this article as the Chiefs/Pats game is going on.  I just can’t see how the Pats are going to open the season, at home, raising the Super Bowl banner (great job of choking, you piece of shit Falcons.  Although I did hit the over, thank you!) and NOT cover the spread.  Pats are 8/8 ATS extending from last year and KC is 2-4 ATS in NE.  They blew an EARLY chance to go up at LEAST 10-0 and even 14-0 but a bad play call from Bellichek on 4th and 1 squashed that notion.  But the Chiefs just took a big dump on the Pats and winning outright.  So I just lost:

The Patriots -9

The Eagles went out and spent big money to have arguably the second best trio of WRs in the NFL.  See NY Giants trio, #1.  You know what they didn’t spend money on?  Defense.  And charm school for their fans.  That accent and their manners would make Mr. Belvedere turn beet red.  You know who else went out and spent a lot of money on a top WR?  Washington with Terelle Pryor.  And for now, they have a healthy Jordan Reed and very solid Jameson Crowder.  You know what they didn’t spend money on?  Defense.  Washington has a good running game to compliment their aerial attack.  This game is going to be a scoring bonanza.  Washington hit the over at home 8/10.  When both teams played each other in the last 3, 3 times they hit the over.  Good enough for me

Philly over 48

I believe in sports karma, especially when there’s a natural disaster.  Bet the farm on a team who the nation rallies for, especially when they’re home.  And when said team is playing against Blake Bortles, well even Blake Bortle’s parents won’t be able to convince me that their little boy is going to go in Houston and bust that spread.  Here is a nice stat going back to last year: Houston is 8-2-1 against division opponents.  Did I mention it’s Blake Bortles on the road?  Thought so.

Lock of the week is Hou -5.5

Cincinnati has a solid defense.  Joe Flacco was banged up all preseason and has a handful of practices under his belt.  Their defense is putrid.  Cincy has a nice stable of RBs and of course, AJ Green.  This is more of an anti-Ravens pick.  Bengals are 7-2-1 in Sept and fun fact, Cincy has hit the under in their last 4 in a row.  Ravens also hit the under 4/5 in their division.  

Cincy -3 and maybe under 42 as a bonus

I already locked in my Giants the second Elliot was suspended because I was afraid the line would drop.  Would you believe that son of a bitch is going to play week 1 and the line actually dropped?  Odell Beckham Jr is still a game time decision.  I think the Giants D is too much for them yet again.  They stopped Elliot and Dez cold in their tracks the last 2 times they played and if they were to lose, I don’t think they’re going to lose by more than 3.  And history backs that up as the Giants are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5.  Good thing I locked in at 3.5

Giants +3.5

Tennessee is everyone’s early darling and I’m all in on Mariota and Murray in 2 leagues.  Oakland could’ve made a deep run but Carr snapped his leg late last season.  I like Tennessee but the numbers for Oakland on the road back them up more.  But you know what I like in this game?  Points.  Neither defense sends shivers up my butthole.  Raiders 8/11 with the over.

Raiders over 50

The daytime Emmy awards should also cover sports.  Because whoever are the announcers are for the Rams/Colts game will put on the best performance of the year when you hear, “RAMS…COLTS! NEXT ON FOX!”  Andrew Luck is out.  Frank Gore is as old as Woody Allan.  Their defense is gonna get washed over like a Puerto Rico during Hurricane Irma.  But not this Sunday because new coach or not, the Rams aren’t doing much.  And we know the Colts don’t have much going on.  So this is an easy one.

Rams under 42

Lastly, I just think Phil Rivers and the San Diego, whoops.  Los Angeles…SUPER CHARGERS.  Does’t have that same ring, does it?  Well blame yourselves, San Diego fans.  I get it, the weather is great.  The women are hot.  So much to do.  But shit, it’s only 8 home games a year to support your team.  Let’s look at some numbers: SD 10-4 ATS on the road.  Broncos are 3-8-1 home against SD.  And oh yeah, Trevor Simian is the Den QB. And if he goes down, who’s up next?  Brock Osweiller who’s making a kajillion dollars to sit the bench.  The last time I saw a heist that big, Henry Hill was listening to 1010 WINS in the shower, having a laugh.  

Gimme the Chargers +3.5

I kinda like Pitt -8, the Vikings and the under 48 as well on sunday night but don’t know if I’m going to bet them.  Just some food for thought.

 

 

Week 12 picks ATS

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I feel like Tony Montana after he had that Mt Rainier of cocaine on his desk.  I feel like Eli Manning after he threw the fade to Plaxico in the first Super Bowl against the cheating, shitbag Pats.  I feel like Eli Manning when he perfectly dropped that ball in Mario Manningham’s basket in the 2nd Superbowl on his way to beating the cheating, shitbag Pats in the second Superbowl.  I feel like Derek Jeter after the flip play against the A’s in 2001.  I am KILLING it with the picks.  6-1 last week and 2-0 on Thanksgiving.  Not a bad way to enjoy the holiday.  Now if I could only get my hands on a NES classic or 4 so I can sell them for 200 bucks on Ebay.  Let’s talk picks:

Already hit Pitt -8 and Wash +7

San Diego does nothing but put up points.  San Diego does nothing but give up points.  Houston is home after getting screwed on monday night (Well, not according to me.  I had Oak -6.5 monday night so I felt just fine, thank you.)  I think both teams can easily put up in the 20’s making this an easy pick.

I’m taking SD over 46.5

Baltimore has a top 10 defense.  Cincinnatti has lost AJ Green and Giovanni Bernard which is 86% of their offense.  I pulled that number out of my ass but honestly, you would’ve bought that.  Baltimore is due for a win, they’re at home, and a wounded tiger may be quite dangerous but not when it’s missing 2 legs.  

I’m taking the Ravens -3.5

Trusting Atlanta to cover is like accepting a condom from a pledge in a fraternity.  You know the fucker poked holes in them so you really can’t trust them.  But I’m not trusting the Falcon’s defense to hold anyone.  I’m trusting both teams to score points. Atl off a bye and AZ can score against that putrid D.  Atl stink ATS at home so that’s why I’m shying away from ATL -6.  So…

I’m taking ATL over 50.5

The Pats are human.  They pushed with the Niners and Seattle gashed their D.  This team obviously is in the hands of Tom Brady.  Did I mention he has a gimpy knee?  It’s probably from when Giselle kicked him after he kept pulling away carrots and sugar cubes from her.  Boom!  Gronk is in but also banged up.  Let’s add that with the Jets do play them tight at home.  I know, trust Ryan Fitzpatrick?  Fucking crazy, I get it.  But the number is right and the Pats are susceptible now

The Packers are done, mentally and physically.  Aaron Rodgers isn’t the same.  Their secondary is worse than any Wes Anderson film.  That’s right, I said it.  That man is horrifically overrated and the hipsters place him in dead center of their alter.  The Eagles are undefeated ATS at home and after a thorough beating in Seattle and if Doug Pederson stops going for it on 4th down, they’ll cover this one easily.

I’m taking Philly -3