Week 9 NFL against the spread picks 11/7/21

I hate the Cincinnati Bengals with the most burning passion. They burned me on THREE separate bets so I hope they get gonorrhea and burn in hell. That being said, I have Jamarr Chase in fantasy and wish him the best of luck for the season. 3-5 last week, 43-39 for the year which puts me at 52.4%, a tick below break even. Whipped this up an hour before kickoff so had to scale back on writing jokes. Back on the horse, here we go.

I locked this in on Wednesday so obviously before Tyrod Taylor was announced as starter for Texans and they announced today, Sunday, that Tua is out which means it’s Jacoby Brissett. Houston is 2-4 of late, 0-7 SU, 4-1 ATS against Miami but that was with Watson. Miami has been awful of late and you have to think at home that Flores can rally the troops but Brissett coming in at the last minute may fuck things up for me. I may have to grab Pitt with someone else if Dolphins lose. Bears are 3-7 ATS and SU of late but 4-1 ATS against Pitt. Good news, 2-5 SU on the road in Pitt. We’re teasing Pitt down.

Dolphins -.5/Steelers -.5

Atlanta under 4/5 in New Orleans, 8/10 under in November. And Trevor Simian is starting? Yuck. Good news is the Atlanta run defense isn’t that bad and that’s all that the Saints can do. No Calvin Ridley for the rest of the foreseeable future. They’re LAST in deep plays and I’ll wager they start this game off slooooowwww. Ryan blew up against the Saints in their first outing but in a hostile environment, I don’t see a repeat performance.

Falcons under 1h 21

Vikings safety is out and Vikings are 1-5 vs winning teams. Lamar is 11-0 against the NFC and has thrwon 25 TDs with 3 picks. Off a bye after getting blown out by the Bengals. I’ll take the better coach at home.

Ravens -6

Pats have gone under 5/7 on the road, Carolina 9/11 under and 4/5 at home. Panthers get McCaffrey back so get ready for more running. But Darnold’s QBR vs the Pats is IN THE SINGLE DIGITS and guess who’s starting today? This game also starts slow.

Pats 1h under 20.5

Giants D in their last 4 games is top 7 in red zone defense, top 7 in takeaways, and tied for 3rd in sacks. Vegas dead last in RZ defense and oh yeah, their #1 WR decided to do a drunken Dukes of Hazard impression and now resides in the unemployment line…unless he gets a job in the prison commissary. Getting a key number here and after the Ruggs debacle combined with a cross country trip spells trouble for the black and silver.

Giants +3.5

I jumped on when Aaron Rodgers decided to get cute with his choice of words. Packers are killing it of late, 7-0 ATS and SU. GB 3-6 ATS in KC as well. KC has been a dumpster fire ATS as well as straight up. 3-15-1 ATS, 1-9 ATS at home. They’re 14-6 SU of late and barely beat the Giants. But goddamn, if they can’t beat Jordan Love at home by a FG or more, it’s time to hit the panic alarm. First leg of teaser #1, Rams is the second leg.

Chiefs -2.5/Rams -1.5

Kyler and Hopkins banged up, AJ Green (who doesn’t turn around in the end zone on the final drive) and JJ Watt are out. Niners get Kittle and Robbie Gould back plus Garrapolo is starting. The trends don’t back this up: 1-4 AS and SU of late, 0-7 SU at home, 2-5 ATS of late.

Niners +1

Den 1-4 ATS and SU. Den 2-4 ATS for the year but 6-2-1 ATS overall against Dallas (not with Dak). Dallas 7-0 ATS, 6-0 SU. Dallas scored 35 at home in 6 straight and Von Miller traded from Den to the Rams? That’s the white flag being waved. Bridgewater is 18-3 ATS and 7-1 ATS as a touchdown dog or more. Den is 0-4 when opponents score more than 14 pts. So let’s do a 7 point teaser and pairing that with the Rams who are 7-1 SU of late. No Derrick Henry is a HUGE loss for that “run first” offense. Rams are 4-1 SU of late and at home. Oh yeah, they got Von Miller to help Donald pass rush? Stop it.

Dal -3/ Rams -.5

Everything explained above and do you see the Bills losing in Jax? HAHAHAAHA. Bills 5-1 SU of late, 10-5 ATS in Jax, 6-1 ATS in Jax. Jags are 3-8 ATS and 1-19 SU of late. Also, 1-10 SU at home. Please.

Dallas/Bills/Rams Ml parlay

Probably taking Chargers -1.5

NFL Divisional playoffs round

3-2 last weekend, 56-47. Hit the Saints/Titans teaser, the 3 way parlay, and the Bucs/Bills teaser. Lost the Rams under/Bucs under teaser and Bucs under/Titans over teaser.

I’ll be goddamn if I lay 1 red cent on Jared Goff in the playoffs, let alone in cold temperatures.  Jared Goff is 0-2 ATS and outright in his career in games below freezing with zero passing touchdowns and five interceptions. That’s like betting on Seth Rogen to do a film without having his character being an awkward pothead. Aaron Rodgers is 6-0 ATS in his career against the Rams, and Green Bay has covered seven straight meetings overall dating back to 2007. GB 5-1 against the Rams to boot. Packers are 4-2 ATS of late, 6-0 SU of late, and 5-0 SU at home. Packers are 7-2 ATS in January. The Rams are 21-13 ATS on the road under McVay. Oh yeah, Aaron Donald is banged up. At least Dr. Strange came up with 1 out of over hundred million scenarios where the Avengers beat Thanos. I can’t think of one that doesn’t involve Aaron Rodgers getting injured or thrown in jail for underage women the night before the game. BUT…I want to make this rocking chair game even easier as I want to tease another game so let’s make this…

First leg of the teaser: GB -.5

I gotta admit, I was leaning Buffalo at first…until I started getting into the numbers and your moms’ boxes. Let’s call it as we saw it; Bills looked pretty exposed against the Colts and my asshole was puckered up HARD that last quarter. Ravens stopped the best RB in the NFL last week; what do you think they’re going to do to Devin Singletary? And they stopped Tannehill who is a top 10-15 QB. I think they’re gonna run the ball right up the Bills taint this week. Baltimore is 9-1 ATS and 7-3 outright as an underdog since drafting Lamar Jackson in 2018. Jackson is 6-1 ATS and 5-2 outright as an underdog. Jackson is 14-3-2 ATS in his career on the road. Baltimore is 11-5-1 ATS this season, tied with Miami (11-5) for the best mark in the league. Buffalo is 11-6 ATS, the third-best mark in the league. Baltimore 6-3 ATS against Buffalo, 4-1 SU. Ravens 13-2 SU on the road. Buffalo 6-0 SU at home, 7-0 SU of late, 8-1 ATS. 2 things scare me: if it snows, Lamar has NEVER played a game in the snow. But it’s supposed to be snow showers with winds of 10-20 mph. Which definitely favors the run and takes something away from the Josh Allen passing attack. Would you be shocked the Ravens won? Nope. Is this going to be close? Yep. so let’s make this the focal point of our teaser.

Second leg of the teaser Ravens +8.5

Andy Reid does two things great: remain morbidly obese and crush teams off a bye. BUT KC hasn’t been doing their 1990’s Florida State Bobby Bowden impression and run shit up. Kansas City is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games. The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS at home in that span and 0-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite in that span. Since 2014, reigning Super Bowl champions are 4-1 ATS in their first playoff game the following season. I think Baker blew his load like TT Boy and Peter North joined forces with a thermonuclear geyser of jazz. By the by,  Baker Mayfield is 0-4 ATS in his career as more than a 7-point underdog. He is 0-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog.  Double-digit favorites are 6-1 ATS in the divisional round since 2010. Patrick Mahomes is 4-1 ATS in the playoffs (3-0 last season). Cleveland is 3-10 ATS in conference games this season. I think the Browns definitely lose this but laying 10 is absurd for all of the above reasons I’ve cited. Browns have been good of late SU, 5-1 on the road, 7-2 SU of late. Chiefs 13-2 at home, 1 of those losses is with their B squad in week 17. So it’s 7 point teaser time and I know some of you may say, “Why not take the Browns to +17, that’s a super sharp play?” It sure is and I won’t eat your lunch for it. But could you see the Chiefs coming out, off the bye, and sick and tired of hearing how they’re barely eeking games out. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Chiefs win by 20.

1st leg of 7 pt teaser Chiefs -3

History shows the cliché of “it’s hard to beat a team three times in the same season” is overblown. In the Super Bowl era, teams that won the first two meetings are 14-8 outright in the third meeting, though they are just 10-11-1 ATS. New Orleans has covered the last four times it has been a home favorite. Tampa Bay is 1-4 outright and 2-3 ATS against teams that finished with winning records. Since 2015, the under is 21-8 in Tom Brady starts with a total in the 50s (15-5 since 2017). New Orleans is 7-1 ATS and outright when Michael Thomas plays this season.  Drew Brees is 5-2 outright and ATS in his career against Brady. Brees’ 5-2 record is the best among 17 quarterbacks to face Brady at least five times. Man, that’s a lot of data backing both teams. So I’m pivoting. Saints/TB have gone over 4/5 in NO, TB/NO over 5/7 of late, and Tampa goes over 15/20 vs NFC. Saints have gone under 7/10 but who have they played? Broncos (the no QB game), Carolina, ATL x2, Philly, Niners, Bucs, Vikings, and Chiefs. Not many high powered offenses in there except the Chiefs, Vikings, and Bucs. But the 7 pt teaser makes this an EASY pick

2nd leg of teaser Bucs over 45

Last bet is a ML parlay as the last 2 weeks I’ve hit those. GB/Saints/Chiefs. I think the Saints are the biggest question mark in that equation but let’s cross your fingers.