Week 12 NFL picks ATS Sports betting.

5-5 last week, 60-65-1 this year…I just can’t get above .500 on a weekly basis. So here we go.

Call this the knee jerk “too many points for a home divisional game) reaction. Atlanta has covered 1/5 of late and 0-3 ATS against teams with winning records. We all know Tampa is king at home but 1-5 ATS on the road. Tampa under 4/6 of late and All 4/6 under of late BUT Tampa has gone over 5/5 when playing at Atlanta. This game can easily be as much of a shootout as there will be in Buckhead later that night.

Atlanta +11 and over 50.5

Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are gametime decisions, much like oral sex. Sometimes you feel like doing it and it’s too musty like you’re in a basement for your liking. Cards have scored 40 plus in past 2 road games against the Bears. They’ve also won all 6 of their road games by 10 or more. Bears are 0-3 as a home dog as well as covered just 1/6 games. Zona 7-2 ATS and 9-2 SU of late, 4-1 ATS against Chicago. Bears 1-5 ATS of late. Andy Dalton going again and I don’t see Arizona taking their foot off the gas; especially with 2 weeks to prep for this. But 7.5 is a funky number sooooooo

Arizona -1.5 teased with Philly -1

The Giants are road dog warriors but you better calllllll somebody to play on offense because backup Mike Glennon is in there and he inspires as much confidence as looking for a sparking clean bathroom in Tijuana. Giants have gone under 5/6 and with that backup, they’re going to take things sloowwwwllyyyy and conservatively. Dolphins 2nd in expected points and 3rd in turnovers within the last month. Giants are 31st in YPG and 28th in offensive points expected. Miami 5-1 ATS as a home favorite and 12-4 ATS at home.

Dolphins -5 and Giants 1h under 20

Talk about the PERFECT outcome; I teased the Colts and that hit but they lost which helped my Colts under 9 bet for the year. Colts are 6-3 ATS of late, 5-0 ATS in Houston, and 6-1 ATS against Texans. Houston has allowed 17 rushing TDs and have are 31st in yds allowed. Went 1-5 when Wentz has a turnover. Houston 3-6 ATS of late and even better when Tyrod is playing. So let’s tease this baby:

Colts -2.5 and Eagles -.5

Nothing makes me happier when the Giants beat the Eagles. Hopefully, they’ll drop a bath bomb in Giants stadium after the Eagles/Jets game tomorrow from those Golden Corral loving fans. Philly losing last week against the G-men spells doom for the rancid Jets. Philly is 10-0 SU, 5-0 SU on the road, and 5-0 ATS against the Jets. Jets dead last in PPG allowed and second to last in QBR so that inspires zero confidence. But don’t feel like laying 7 even though it’s going to be no shocker that they blow the Jets outta there. But I teased them twice as I feel that confident with them winning outright.

Jags are 5-10 ATS of late, 2-18 SU. Also, 1-4 in LA and 0-10 SU on road. BUT Jacksonville 2-0 ATS as a double digit dog. 3-1 ATS when getting 7 or more. And I could give a rusty trombone fuck about those positive Jaguar stats. Rams have lost 3 straight and if a miracle the size of Pauly Shore making me laugh, their playoff hopes are kaput if they lose to the Jags. This is the spot where they get to take out their frustrations like a mailman on a lonesome housewife. I don’t like laying dd’s (except the cup size, heigh ohhhh) which is why I teased them down below a TD.

Rams -5.5 with Pats +10

Speaking of another get right game, Rothliesberger said this will be his last year so he can fully enjoy pushing women into bathroom stalls all year round. Bal is 4-0-1 in Pitt but here’s the stat of all stats: between those 2 teams, a team favored by more than 3 is 1-13-2. The average margin of victory is 1 point. Harbaugh in Pitt is 13-13. Baltimore has scored under 17 in their last 4/5. Tomlin is 42-21-2 as an underdog, 4-2 this season. And the cherry on top: Lamar 5 INTs in 2 starts against Pitt and sacked 9 times with more good news: TJ Watt has been cleared to play

Pitt +4.5

It’s supposed to be garbage weather in Buffalo, which means it’s just a normal day outside of June-August. That favors that Pats d that smothers like Kim Kardashian’s ass when Pete Davidson tosses her salad. And for the love of christ, how did this all-time worst cast member of SNL who looks like a meth’ed out chipmunk land all of these women? Buff 4-0-1 against AFC east teams. But I’ll wager the Pats run game slogs through the Bills defense. Pats are 6-3 ATS of late agains the Bills, 6-0 ATS of late. They’re also 8-1 SU in Buffalo. Wanted to get this to a premier number which is why I teased it to 10.

The Chargers run defense is worse than people who sit in first class for the first time and take pictures the entire flight. The Bengals just Cleveland steamed the Steelers with a 40 burger last week, over 4/5 of late. The Chargers can score points as easily but recent trends have the Chargers recently under 4/5 on the road. Again, I think I got a key number at 50.5 and it even dropped. This game has 27-24 with ease.

Bengals over 50.5

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NFL picks ATS week 11 /28/21 sports betting

5-6 last week as the Giants ruined my chances to go over .500 for the week for the first time in a LONG time. Goddamnit, that puts me at 55-61-1 this year which includes the Dallas under on Thanksgiving I took. Hope you degenerates stayed away from Black Friday store openings at 4am cause if you didn’t, you should be forced to play in the Squid Games. This week, THREE games that are absolutely going to make you say, “who gives a shit!”

What’s worse, watching the Jets or getting finger popped by your uncle watching the Jets lose again? Well, get ready for another Jets loss against a Houston defense that shut down the Titans. The Jets lost Michael Carter for a few weeks and the stats sure don’t inspire confidence: 1-5 ATS of late, 0-6 ATS on the road. Their defense is also dead LAST in DVOA while Houston is slightly above average.

Houston -2.5

The only thing watching someone drive into and kill people in a Christmas parade was watching the Falcons last week against the Patriots. I can’t believe I’m putting hard earned money on the Falcons again but here we are. Jags give up 12 most yards allowed and 29th in defense efficiency. Matt Ryan is going to do his best Urban Meyer impression and bury in boner in the Jags behind this week. Trevor Lawrence has allowed 169 yds and .2 TDs a game for the last 3 games. 10 days off to prep and stew against the dogshit Jags is enough for Matt “Waterhead” Ryan to get the win. Falcons 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU against Jags of late. Jags are 2-18 SU of late, 2-11 SU at home. Hold your nose like I do when your mom drops her panties and bet the Falcons.

Falcons -1

Jaguars have scored 23 ONCE and that was in London. They haven’t score more than 20 in over a month and scored 20 or more 3 times this year.

Jaguars team total under 23

Can you imagine (I’ve been there for the good and bad) if you had the Chargers and you blew that 17 pt lead in the 4th quarter and had them -4.5? Oh gambling, you’re the best and the worst. Good news is Pitt is getting everyone back on defense: Fitzpatrick and most imporantly, TJ Watt, are back on defense. I jumped in a little late and got it at +3.5 and there’s still value left as this is THE last stand for Pitt. You’re getting more than a FG in a divisional game, grab it while you can. Pittsburgh is 3-6 ATS (including when Ben was out) but 4-1-1 SU of late and 4-1 ATS on the road. 11-2 SU against Cincy. Bengals 1-4 ATS at home, 1-7 SU home against Pitt and 3-6 ATS as the favorite. Good enough stats for you?

Steelers +3.5

I want to go play Far Cry 6 so here’s a quick handicap. Vikings are 4-1 ATS of late, 4-2 SU, and 6-3 SU against SF. Niners are worse at home than their policing policies, 1-8 SU at home. Vikings putting up 30.6 ppg of late and Cousins hasn’t thrown a pick in 6 games with 21 TDs. Oh yeah, Kyle Shanahan is 3-16-2 as a home favorite. Game, set, match.

Vikings +3

I’m watching The Last Dragon right now and this film is so fucking awful. It’s beyond 80’s schlock and impossible to defend as a guilty pleasure. That’s just a quick tangent as we get to the first teaser. Colts are AVERAGING 31 PPG and Taylor is averaging 119 yds a game. I have the Colts under 9 and I’m starting to sweat this one out after an awful start by Went and 2 bad beat losses. Colts are 6-2 ATS of late but 3-6 ATS at home.Now, before I hear you say, TB has the best rush defense (they do), Vita Vea is their best run stopper and he’s out. Last 5 games, the Bucs have allowed 111 rush yds a game so the bloom is off the rose. Bucs are 0-5 ATS on the road and 0-3 ATS against winning teams. But let’s get a little insurance by teasing this with…

In the third, “who gives a shit” game of the week, let’s talk Carolina and Miami. This game on paper is worse than the Asian guys in the Last Dragon. Goddamn, this film is awful. Anyway, Carolina is 2-6 ATS and SU of late. 1-5 ATS against Mia, 2-4 SU although Carolina 10-2 ATS of late on the road. But in the last 4, Miami defense is 3rd in points allowed as well as 2nd best in allowed QBR rating. Carolina defense has been holding it down as well: 2nd in yards allowed and 6th in PPG. Dolphins are 11-4 ATS at home and 7-1 ATS in November games but 3-7 SU of late.

Dolphins +8 and Colts +9

No Brown, no Jones, no Johnson. Sounds like the 3/5 starting 5 of an NBA lineup out. But wait, there’s more! Down 3 CBs, 2 LBs, a G, and a DT all out. So let’s get this straight, the Titans who lost to the Texans and have no one on offense and defense. They go to New England and facing a defense who has given up THIRTEEN points in THREE games. They’re 3rd in takeaways, 7th in sacks, and FIRST in points allowed. Yeah, we’re taking the Pats down to a near pick em. Then 2-7 SU and 2-5 ATS against NE, 1-6 SU in NE. Pats are rolling, 5-0 ATS and SU of late. Just tease them and kick back with a Colt 45 cause it works every time.

Titans team total under 18

Pats -1/GB+7

Yes, I know Rodgers toe must be hurting him worse than it is for us to look at his mullet. And I know the Rams are off 2 losses with a bye. It’s supposed to get frigid tomorrow in Lambeau and before last week’s explosion in Minnesota, (hope you took Minn like I told you to) Packers gave up 22 or less in 7 games. And looky, looky, here: Packers have given up 11 points per game at Lambeau over their last 4 at home. Rams are 1-4 ATS of late, 0-7 ATS against GB, 1-5 SU in GB. Packers are on fire: 9-1 ATS and 8-2 SU, 10-1 SU at home. Yes, a couple more injuries on defense but hence why we’re teasing the Pack up to 7. Let’s cross those fingers and hope the Pack o line holds up and they keep it to 7.

Pats -.5/Pit +10 teaser for all the reasons above.

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NFL picks week 11

Ever get punched in the nuts so hard, kicked in the head, and then forced to watched Chris D’Elia’s standup? Yeah, that was me last week with my picks. You want to know how bad I was? 2-10-1 last week. That’s inconceivable. The Ravens and Steelers combined for 5 of those 10 losses. What a complete shit show this was and man, I was sick to my stomach for a few days. However, new week so goddamn, saddle up.

Joe Flacco starting today. Those words I wouldn’t expect to type unless this was when we had a black President in office. Jets defense has allowed 175 points in their last 4 and Dolphins blitz the most at 39% of the time. I don’t think Flacco can move his wheelchair that fast so get ready for a heavy dose of max protect for ol Joey. Jets have the 2nd worst run defense in the league but Dolphins have the NFL’s worst YPC rate at 2.5. If not now, when, for Myles Gaskin? Miami has covered 6 straight against the Jets but 1-5 ATS as a favorite. BUUUT the Dolphins are 6-0 ATS against the Jets and 6-1 SU. Jets 2-8 ATS and SU against Miami of late, 3-9 SU at home. I got this number earlier today at 3.5, now at 4. So here we go, 21-17!

Dolphins -3.5

Houston has been impossible to bet unless you tease them and even that has been a dubious proposition…kind of like dating someone who immediately offers up their pronouns in the first 2 seconds of meeting you. Hard pass, yuck. Texans 2-5 ATS of late and Tennessee 5-1 ATS of late. Tyrod will be back in there as QB for Texans and the last time he started and played a full game, Cooks had over 100 yds. Tenn pass defense is 27th in the NFL and I think Texans keep it close enough. Tennessee isn’t blowing anyone out without Henry and they sure let the Saints fuck up my bet late last week. Key number I got so I pounced on this earlier in the week.

Texans +10.5

Let’s see if Kirk Cousins unvaccinated mouth can kiss Aaron Rodgers supposed immunized lips and suck out his soul like Shang Tsung in Mortal Combat. GB has been a covering machine of late, 9-0 ATS and 4-2 ATS against Minn. Hell, they’re 5-0 ATS on the road. 8/9 Vikings/GB game have been decided by 7 or less. Good news on the Vikings front: raping and pillaging is up! JK, LOL 🙂 Patrick Peterson and Harrison Smith are back on defense for the Vikings. What’s scary is the Vikings are 1-7 ATS at home this year and 5-11 ATS of late. But they do cover as dogs and this is an absolute do or die game for the Vikes. Also, no Aaron Jones for GB today. Rodgers has a gimpy toe and let’s see if we can win this outright or just lose by a point.

Vikings +1.5

Saints are a dead nuts first half under and dead nuts second half over. I see Payton playing conservatively to open the game as well as doing his best to keep it close and mistake free for Simian. Believe it or not, you can now type those words without loading a weapon to put in your mouth as he’s played “well” of late.

Eagles 1h under 22.5

Eagles best rushing attack in last 3 weeks meets the best rush defense in the NFL. Saints allow league lowest 1.9 yards allowed for zone reads so that takes Philly out of its element. Best number I can find: Saints 4-0 ATS and 3-1 outright when they’re an underdog. Yes, I know there’s no Kamara and the line went up to 3 but hey, when you lock in early, you get burned sometimes. Let’s hope for an outright Saints win. Eagles have been beating on bad teams but losing to good ones. They’re 4-2 ATS of late but 5-13 SU in that period. Meaning they’re obviously better as the dog. Also, they’re 0-5 SU at home. Give me an excuse to root against Philly, sure, why the hell not.

Saints +2

All of the reasons above I like the Vikings and Kyler Murray is PROBABLY out for Zona as the line dropped to Sea -3. That screams inside information and glad I locked in this teaser earlier! See, things do work for you on the other side. Kyler Murray quickly becoming the guy you draft in fantasy and then take a solid backup 3-4 rounds later. Speaking of Kyler, did his parents mean to name him Kyler or did they want to name him Kyle but have that overbearing, annoying Long Island accent? Back afta dis. Zona just got embarrassed at home with Colt McCoy and if we get him again, YAHTZEE. Zona 6-2 ATS and 8-2 SU of late. They’re 5-0 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS against Seattle. Russ Wilson got hosed on calls last week and was shut out for the first time in his career in GB.

Vikings +7.5 and Seattle +7.5

No Kyler makes this game even easier to pick under but some stats nonetheless. Seattle under 6/7 of late, 4/6 under against Seattle, 5/5 vs NFC opponent. Also, the under is 12-2 when Russ starts.

Az under 48

Lions have allowed 10 sacks in 2 games. Myles Garrett ALREADY has 13 sacks which is getting close to Strahan’s record so let’s hope he falls short of that distinction. Not that it mattered (except last week when the Lions TIED the Steelers and of course, I had the Steelers teased to 2.5) Goff is out and Boyle is in for the Lions. It’s supposed to pour in Cleveland so I grabbed under 43.5 a couple of days ago. It’s 42.5 at the time of this article so what does that tell you? Det has gone 6/7 under of late and the Browns have the distinct honor of going under 5/5 in week 11. Yeah, who gives a shit about that but hey, it’s information! Browns have gone 4/6 over of late but with a Baker banged up shoulder and impending (supposed) monsoon, except a lot of running and Detroit offensive ineptitude.

Browns under 43.5

4 team ML Parlay: Niners, Titans, Browns, Bucs

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NFL Week 10 picks

5-5 last week. 48-44 for the year, 52.2% for the year which is a tick under break even. Unfortunately, the Ravens decided to bend me over 3 different ways and stick in my chute as they lose outright to the Dolphins. Got to this late so just straight gas and facts.

Dallas in a rebound but let’s cover our ass with a 6.5 teaser. Dallas 7-1 ATS of late and Falcons are playing better of late, 4-2 ATS and 4-1 ATS vs Dallas. Dallas can win by a FG or more after getting embarrassed. Second half of the teaser, I’m worried about as Ben got put on Covid list late last night. Good news, they can run the ball down Detroit’s throat as everyone else has. Pitt 2-5 ATS of late but 4-1 SU, especially getting stupid lucky with that dogshit call with the Bears.

Dallas -2.5/pitt -2 6.5 teaser

Bucs don’t cover on the road and of late: 2-4 ATS of late and against Wash. Both teams off a bye and Wash can keep it under 2 scores. Yes, you’re asking a team 1-7 ATS of late to keep it close against one of the top offenses but they’re without Brown and Gronk again.

Washington +9.5

Colts -4/Seattle +10 6.5 teaser

Falcons +3 1q

Zona/Colts/TB/Buff parlay

Pitt -2.5/Raiders +8.5

Colts -4.5/Vikings over 47

Saints have the #1 run defense but I don’t care. Kamara is their ENTIRE offense and Trevor Simian isn’t good. The Titans beat the hell out of the Rams last sunday night (another rough one to swallow) and I’m laying under a FG. Yes, I know the Titans are due for a letdown but we’ve been saying that for how long now? 5-0 ATS and SUAnd they’re home and get to blitzkrieg Trevor Simian?

Titans -2.5

Vikings +8.5/Raiders +8.5

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Week 9 NFL against the spread picks 11/7/21

I hate the Cincinnati Bengals with the most burning passion. They burned me on THREE separate bets so I hope they get gonorrhea and burn in hell. That being said, I have Jamarr Chase in fantasy and wish him the best of luck for the season. 3-5 last week, 43-39 for the year which puts me at 52.4%, a tick below break even. Whipped this up an hour before kickoff so had to scale back on writing jokes. Back on the horse, here we go.

I locked this in on Wednesday so obviously before Tyrod Taylor was announced as starter for Texans and they announced today, Sunday, that Tua is out which means it’s Jacoby Brissett. Houston is 2-4 of late, 0-7 SU, 4-1 ATS against Miami but that was with Watson. Miami has been awful of late and you have to think at home that Flores can rally the troops but Brissett coming in at the last minute may fuck things up for me. I may have to grab Pitt with someone else if Dolphins lose. Bears are 3-7 ATS and SU of late but 4-1 ATS against Pitt. Good news, 2-5 SU on the road in Pitt. We’re teasing Pitt down.

Dolphins -.5/Steelers -.5

Atlanta under 4/5 in New Orleans, 8/10 under in November. And Trevor Simian is starting? Yuck. Good news is the Atlanta run defense isn’t that bad and that’s all that the Saints can do. No Calvin Ridley for the rest of the foreseeable future. They’re LAST in deep plays and I’ll wager they start this game off slooooowwww. Ryan blew up against the Saints in their first outing but in a hostile environment, I don’t see a repeat performance.

Falcons under 1h 21

Vikings safety is out and Vikings are 1-5 vs winning teams. Lamar is 11-0 against the NFC and has thrwon 25 TDs with 3 picks. Off a bye after getting blown out by the Bengals. I’ll take the better coach at home.

Ravens -6

Pats have gone under 5/7 on the road, Carolina 9/11 under and 4/5 at home. Panthers get McCaffrey back so get ready for more running. But Darnold’s QBR vs the Pats is IN THE SINGLE DIGITS and guess who’s starting today? This game also starts slow.

Pats 1h under 20.5

Giants D in their last 4 games is top 7 in red zone defense, top 7 in takeaways, and tied for 3rd in sacks. Vegas dead last in RZ defense and oh yeah, their #1 WR decided to do a drunken Dukes of Hazard impression and now resides in the unemployment line…unless he gets a job in the prison commissary. Getting a key number here and after the Ruggs debacle combined with a cross country trip spells trouble for the black and silver.

Giants +3.5

I jumped on when Aaron Rodgers decided to get cute with his choice of words. Packers are killing it of late, 7-0 ATS and SU. GB 3-6 ATS in KC as well. KC has been a dumpster fire ATS as well as straight up. 3-15-1 ATS, 1-9 ATS at home. They’re 14-6 SU of late and barely beat the Giants. But goddamn, if they can’t beat Jordan Love at home by a FG or more, it’s time to hit the panic alarm. First leg of teaser #1, Rams is the second leg.

Chiefs -2.5/Rams -1.5

Kyler and Hopkins banged up, AJ Green (who doesn’t turn around in the end zone on the final drive) and JJ Watt are out. Niners get Kittle and Robbie Gould back plus Garrapolo is starting. The trends don’t back this up: 1-4 AS and SU of late, 0-7 SU at home, 2-5 ATS of late.

Niners +1

Den 1-4 ATS and SU. Den 2-4 ATS for the year but 6-2-1 ATS overall against Dallas (not with Dak). Dallas 7-0 ATS, 6-0 SU. Dallas scored 35 at home in 6 straight and Von Miller traded from Den to the Rams? That’s the white flag being waved. Bridgewater is 18-3 ATS and 7-1 ATS as a touchdown dog or more. Den is 0-4 when opponents score more than 14 pts. So let’s do a 7 point teaser and pairing that with the Rams who are 7-1 SU of late. No Derrick Henry is a HUGE loss for that “run first” offense. Rams are 4-1 SU of late and at home. Oh yeah, they got Von Miller to help Donald pass rush? Stop it.

Dal -3/ Rams -.5

Everything explained above and do you see the Bills losing in Jax? HAHAHAAHA. Bills 5-1 SU of late, 10-5 ATS in Jax, 6-1 ATS in Jax. Jags are 3-8 ATS and 1-19 SU of late. Also, 1-10 SU at home. Please.

Dallas/Bills/Rams Ml parlay

Probably taking Chargers -1.5

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NFL picks week 8 against the spread

It was only a matter of time before this taint tickling handicapper got back on a winning track. 9-2 last week, 40-33 for the season, 55% for the year so we’re back in the black. And just as my thursday night luck continued, guess who had Arizona teased down to -.5? Christ almighty, what a shitty way to end a game. I’d rather stand in from of Alec Baldwin with a prop gun in his hands than watch a WR not turn around with :14 left in the game. So we’re starting the week 0-1, yuck. Here we go:

I want someone to explain how the Bills (home against the Dolphins whom they blew out a few weeks ago), Rams (at houston who couldn’t cover 20.5 spread and just traded away Mark Ingram), Bengals (against the Jets backup) and the Chiefs (losing 2 straight and now at home against the Giants) are going to lose. You can’t. So this week’s big spread, 4 way ML parlay is…

Bills/Rams/Bengals/Chiefs

I have made money on them when teasing them and lost money on the betting them straight up. Some of you would rather bet on bum fights in Detroit vs their football team and I don’t blame you. And goddamnit, if not now, when for the Lions? They’re home and Philly has lost 3 straight to Detroit. 3 consecutive starts for Jalen Hurts under 60% passing completion. Philly 1-5 SU of late and 1-5 ATS against Det. Also, Philly is 2-8 ATS on the road.

Lions +3.5

Titans have been damn near a guarantee for the over of late; as much as Dune was a guarantee to be MEH. Great visuals, plot line was nothing remarkable and heavily influenced by Star Wars. Titans 11/16 over of late, 5/5 over on the road. Colts 4/6 over vs the Titans. This game has teaser all over it and with the teaser, EASILY 24-21. Kirk Cousins stinks in primtetime but I think points will be had by both teams. And I locked this bet in during the week before Dak Prescott’s calf acting up like a white woman who just got bumped from first class to coach. So hopefully he plays Sunday night and it helps the second leg of my teaser. Dallas over 5/6 of late, 8/9 over vs NFC, Vikings are 6/9 over of late, 12/18 games have gone over on a Sunday. It’s a high total, even with the tease, but I think this game can get to 27-4 with ease. Dallas AVERAGING 34 ppg this year, Minnesota averaging 24.

Titans over 44.5/Dallas over 49

Baker Mayfield is playing this week with a banged up shoulder and working on a Michael Strahan gap toothed smile as he rakes in $ making Progressive commercials. He’ll be looking to keep that shoulder protected so I smell handoff city. I think this game starts off slow as most of these Cle/Pitt games usually do. Pitt under 4/6 of late and 6/8 under in Cle. Lastly, 37-12-1 for Pitt road games and that’s good enough for me.

Cle 1h under 21

Remember last year when the Pats went to LA and beat them Pats 6-0 ATS and SU against LA. We know Bellichick off the bye is fantastic and they gave the Cowboys and Bucs a run for their money. Chargers 8-2 ATS and SU of late but the Chargers run D is worse than sitting next to someone in first class who’s never sat there and takes nonstop selfies. Christ, act like you’ve been there before. Most rushing yds allowed and most yards per rush by the Chargers D. Patriots run that ball well and that’s gonna be the game plan. Chargers may win this game but it will be close. So why not make this less of a white knuckle and tease the Pats up. And the other half of the teaser is taking the obvious Bengals down below a TD. Cincy is 4-1 SU of late, 4-1 ATS on the road. Bengals are 4th in yards per play and 6th in yds per attempt. Jets 1-6 ATS and SU of late, 2-8 SU at home. No Zack Wilson but honestly, that doesn’t matter. Mike White, Jack White, Vanna White, IT DOESN’T MATTER WHO IS QB FOR THE JETS. I can’t imagine the Jets covering, let alone winning. But again, why make this a nail biter?

Bengals -4.5/Pats +10

Who wants to bet on Jameis Winston? Not even his mother would most of the time unless it was betting on him stealing crab legs. Bucs 14-1 SU of late and 10-1 SU on the road. But guess where their kryptonite is? The Blue Oyster Bar. That and New Orleans where they’re 1-5 ATS and SU. Saints are playing surprisingly well of late, 7-3 SU at home and 8-3 SU home (most of that sample set with Brees) Saints have gone 7/9 under of late. I think the Saints keep this close and might even win. They’re gonna do everything in their power to keep the ball out of Brady’s hands and keep that clock running. Saints are 10-2 ATS as an underdog and Bucs are 0-3 ATS on the road this year. So let’s boost our odds for both by taking…

Saints +10.5/under 56.5

Everyone and their grandmother (she’s loose with the morals as well as loose with the pocketbook) loved the Eagles last week. I talked about fading that pick with my buddy Nick cause that’s always a bad sign. This week, everyone loves the Colts after they went into a bomb Cyclone in SF and won. BTW, Bomb Cyclone would be a great name for a stripper’s pussy or Mortal Kombat finishing move, or why not combine the both?

Titans have been a nice surprise of late, 5-1 ATS and 5-1 SU of late. Indy 4-0 ATS of late but Tenn is 4-0 ATS against teams who made the playoffs. Derrick Henry has 4 straight 100 yd games against them. I hope Indy doesn’t win because I have the Titans to win division as well as Colts under 9. But if the Colts were to win, it won’t be by more than a TD. Sooo, let’s tease this it up as well as grab the Bengals again.

Titans +8.5/Bengals -4.5

Get ready to say, “no shit, how?” Geno Smith has covered 7 straight starts. Jax 3-7 ATS of late, 1-19 SU, 2-4 SU against Sea and they got their win out of the way before the bye. Do you see Urban Meyer being able to coach in that stadium? Seattle hung tight with the Saints and I think they can cover 3 (it’s 3.5 now but I locked this in on Thursday). Yes, Sea 1-5 SU of late, 1-4 SU at home. Russ Wilson is coming back next week, hopefully, and if they have any hope of making a run for the playoffs, they need this game.

Sea -3

If the line gets back to 10, I’ll take the Giants if Toney and Sheppard play. The Giants are 8-1 ATS against KC, and 11-3 ATS on the road. Chiefs 3-14-1 of late ATS and 1-8 ATS at home.

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Week 7 picks

Last week, 5-6 to bring my total to 31-31 for the year, 50% is not making any money. I’m about to go to the Giants game so no jokes or cookie monster video, just straight data.

KC 3-13-1 ATS but 15-5 ATS of late. Chiefs 1-4 ATS at SU against Tenn, KC 12-2 SU on road. Tenn 4-1 AT and SU. Tenn 2-1 ATS and SU against the Chiefs

Tenn +5.5

Wash 1-5 ATS, 2-5 SU, 3-7 SU against GB but 0-5 SU in GB. GB 5-0 ATS and SU of late, 16-2 SU at home.

First leg of teaser GB -2.5. Denver +8 (covered) was the second leg of the teaser

;Carolina under 7/9 of late Giants under 9/13, 6/7 under at home

Giants under 1H 22.5 and for the game, 43.5

Jets 1-5 ATS of late, 3-17 SU, 2-6 against Pats and 0-10 SU. 1-10 SU on the road 0-10 sU in NE. Pats 3-7 ATS and SU of late, 1-5 SU at home.

Pats -1 along with Titans +11.5

Atlanta 2-4 ATS of late, 2-8 SU, 6-2-1 ATS against Miami but 4-9 SU. All 5-1 ATS against AFC. Miami1-4 ATS of late, 0-5 SU, 9-3 ATS at home, 1-5 SU. Teams coming off a bye and road favorite, 83-49. Miami doesn’t take a bye after coming back from London? As in the words of Jack Slater from Last Action Hero (underrated movie) “Big Mistake.”

ATL -1.5

Arizona is gonna smoke Houston but they don’t need to go batshit crazy as they play Thursday night against GB. They’ll take the foot off the gas early

Zona team total under 32.5

But that doesn’t mean Deandre Hopkins won’t want to unload against his old team, despite hardly anyone there from management when he was there.

Hopkins over 70.5 receiving yards

Like all the big spreads to win outright so ML parlay it is: GB/Rams/Arizona/TB money line parlay

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NFL week 6 picks ATS 10/17/21

The gambling gods are a fickle sort. Last week, I lost not one but TWO teasers by .5 each. The Seahawks throw a pick late and don’t even have the common courtesy to let the Rams get a first down to run the clock out. Then, the Vikings fumble a running play on 3rd down to also kill the clock. Lions score and then Vikings drive the field for a FG. But then, Monday night rolls around with the biggest, “no fucking way that should’ve happened”, when the Ravens stormed back down 20 and won in OT. That saved 2 ML parlays and a teaser, taking me to 4-5 last week and 26-25 for the year. It’s been an AWFUL 3 weeks and let’s hope that changes NOW.

We started off this week 6 on a high note. I teased the Bucs to -1 and Philly managed to backdoor the spread for the regular spread. And that’s why you tease these road TD favorites. I paired that with Chiefs this week. And I told you to go HARD on the Bills and the Bills went morning boner hard on that Chiefs diarrhea defense. Let’s start off by saying there’s not a goddamn way in hell the Chiefs lose this game at Washington. Skins defense looks like a 30 year old Blockbuster video VHS of Terminator 2. We all know the Chiefs are hot garbage ATS (1-5 of late) hence the tease. But the Chiefs are 14-5 SU of late, 7-0 ATS and SU against Washington. Also 11-2 SU on the road and 4-1 SU in Washington. Nuff said

TB -1/Chiefs -.5

Raise your hand if your asshole puckered up from 1-3:30pm last sunday. Why? Because the Pats were getting smoked by the hapless Texans and again, this is why you tease road favorites laying more than a TD. Pats won by 3, I laid 2.5. And the sharps LOVE the Pats this weekend against Dallas. Fun fact: teams going into bye weeks are 22-5 ATS. Guess who’s going into the bye this week? Dallas. Guess who has scored more than 21 points in 3/11 home games? Enrico Pallazzo. No, the New England Patriots, silly. Dallas 5-0 ATS of late, 4-1 SU with their only loss against the Bucs opening night. Dallas 2-4 against the Pats and 0-6 against the Pats but obviously, those were against Brady. Pats are 3-6 ATS and SU of late. Most importantly, they’re 1-4 SU at home. The number is perfect for Dallas as you’re just laying a FG and if you’re asking yourself how the Pats could barely move the ball against the hapless Texans for 3 quarters, how can they do that against the Cowboys with Diggs on his way to defensive player of the year.

Dallas -3

Fun facts, just like you hear on the Gutting the Sacred Cow podcast (new episode out now with this week’s film, Raiders of the Lost Ark). Colts are 1-2 as a double digit favorite including an outright loss. Double digits favorites are 5-2 ATS. Texans are 4-2 ATS of late but 1-5 ATS against Indy. Colts are 1-4 ATS at home of late and off a direct cunt punt on the aforementioned monday night. And who the fuck are the Colts laying 10 points? Division game and I’ll gladly take the 10.

Houston +10

Sometimes when you fire in early, you get the better number. I fired in early on the Rams and it backfired a bit as Daniel Jones was announced he’s cleared and that line dropped from 9.5 to 7.5. Welp, as I said before, only donkeys lay more than a TD on the road. I did a 7 pt teaser and took the Rams to 2.5. Rams have allowed just 4 sacks all year and the Giants are 2nd worst in sacks. Giants pass D is 27th in the NFL. Rams with 10 days to prepare, c’mon, really? Although the Giants are 5-0 ATS as a double digit dog with 2 outright wins. But Daniel Jones is 4-11 ATS at home and 3-8 as a home dog. No Golladay and no Barkley. Easy pick for the Rams.

Chargers are a short road dog this week and those dogs +6 or less are 22-8 ATS. Justin Herbert 5-2 ATS as a dog and the Chargers are 49-22-5 ATS as road dogs since 2004. Chargers 8-1 ATS and SU of late, 4-2 ATS vs Bad and 5-2 ATS in Bal. Ravens not too shabby as they’re 9-4 ATS of ate, 5-0 SU. Here’s the other leg of my 7 pt teaser.

Chargers +10 and Rams -2.5

I’m in teaser kind of mood so heidy ho: Baltimore has gone over 6/6 when they haven’t had full rest as they played 4.5 quarters on monday night. Bad has gone over 5/7 games in week 6. Chargers 4/5 under of late but taking this down to 45.5 should be easy with both of these soft defenses and high power offenses. 27-20 gets it done. Cards are 8/9 under on the road and 5/7 of late. No Chubb for Cle and the under is 7/10 as the favorite. Oh by the way, winds of 20-30 mph are expected. Sounds like Drew Carey’s Mimi character is queefing off of lake Erie. Look, I’m tired and the jokes are going to the lazy at this points.

Chargers over 45.5 /Cle under 55

The Packers have beaten the Bears so badly you would’ve thought they wore an Iraq soldier uniform in 1991. GB 4-1 ATS of late, 9-1 SU against the Bears, 10-3 ATS. Rodgers 10 TD no INT against Bears. GB 4-1 ATS against Chi and 4-1 SU on the road. Yes, Justin Fields beat the Raiders last week but was that because the Raiders are frauds or because of Jon Gruden doing his best Daniel Carer impression. Call me a square donkey but I think Mason Crosby unfucks himself and Packers win by a TD or more.

GB -5.5

Dallas has also gone under 5/5 in NE (also against Brady) but 8/9 under vs AFC. Pats 5/5 under when playing NFC. And the Vikings have cooled off when it comes to ATS; they’ve been viciously lucky the last 2 games to win outright but not covering. They’re 2-10 ATS of late, 3-6 SU of late. Panthers off 2 straight losses but Carolina 4-1 when the line is between -3 and +3, Minn 1-4 when this is the case. Carolina defense allowing 2nd fewest yards per play as well as getting their left side of the o line back. I needed something to partner the Dallas under with so let’s get Carolina over a TD. Minn is 2-9 ATS as a favorite,

Dallas under 56.5/Car +8.5

Chiefs/Dal/Rams ML Parlay

Zona is 4-1 ATS of late but holy shit, Covid wiped out the Cardinals than at a mega church in Alabama. Kingsbury, out. QB coach, out. Chandler Jones, out. Kingsbury calls the plays, good luck calling them from his house. Again, high winds in the forecast tomorrow so get ready for a bunch of Kareem Hunt. But never say his name too quickly otherwise people will think you have a potty mouth. Cle 6-0 SU after a loss but 1-5 ATS. Browns 6-0 ATS in non-conference games.

Browns -3

The Detroit Lions have worse luck nerds do in the first 2/3 of a high school or college comedy. Again, I’m tired and the analogies are C- AT BEST. Lions should’ve won the last 2 weeks and now they get Joe Burrow and his banged up voice box. He must sound like Michael Douglas after he got HPV from eating Catherine Zeta Jones’s box. If not now, when, for the Lions at home? Zac Taylor are 1-4 ATS as a favorite Bengals had a million chances last week to put away the Pack and they’ve beat up on bad teams. Cincy 2-17-1 SU last 20 on the road and they’re 2-4 ATS of late. Lions are 4-2 ATS of late and I daresay this is the key number to bet.

Det +3.5

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NFL week 5 picks ATS 10/10/21

Good news, the new James Bond film was great. Bad news, who would’ve thought the Giants AND the Jets would’ve combined to fuck me in FOUR bets? Giants come back from down 11 to win in OT and the goddamn Jets pull an OT win off as well. Bringing me to a total of 22-19 for the year. I know, a long way from 66% ATS 2 weeks ago. I started off the week teasing Seattle to +8.5 with Minnesota. So Russ badly sprains his finger, gets taken out for Geno Smith, and the Rams backdoor my teaser by HALF A FUCKING POINT WITH A LATE, MEANINGLESS FIELD GOAL. Starting off 0-1, sigh. So let’s rally and pretend like I’m a terminally ill cancer patient who goes to Vegas for a final long weekend; blowing his bankroll with reckless abandon and going balls deep without rubbers or standards.

I’m calling my first bet the LOCK OF THE YEAR. KC FINALLY covered the spread this year against Philly and now they’re home against the Bills. The Chiefs defense is softer than my penis hearing Ani DiFranco or Tori Amos songs. Their ATS number is almost as Mayor Bill DeBlasio’s approval rating, 2-12-1 ATS of late and 1-7 ATS at home. Christ almighty, that’s atrocious. In come the Bills who are hotter than a pistol: 12-3 ATS of late, 11-2 SU. Last 2 games they lost were the AFC championship and week 1 against the hapless Steelers. So what the Chiefs are 1-5 ATS and SU agains the Chiefs. But I want you to explain to me how the Chiefs are laying 3 to the Bills? This game has 31-30 written all over it and I REALLY think the Bills win the game. At WORST, they lose and keep it to a FG or less. So I made my biggest bet of the year on a teaser with the Bills:

First leg of the teaser: Bills +9 and a second bet of Bills +3

This next leg of the CAN’T MISS teaser is quite simple: The Colts are trash. Yes, the got their first win in Miami but who gives a shit. Colts are 1-4 SU of late and against Baltimore. Colts are also 2-4 ATS against AFC and 0-6 against the AFC north but let’s look at the eye test, Wentz’s numbers are ok but his execution stinks. Jonathan Taylor, the RB, is underachieving. Now bring in the Ravens who are riding hot: 9-3 ATS and 9-2 SU. Also 7-2 ATS against AFC, 4-1 ATS against AFC south, 7-0 SU in October, and 7-1 SU as a favorite. Ravens at home Monday night are going to fast forward through the Colts like I fast forward through half of Howard Stern’s show. We get it, you’re scare of Corona, hate anti-vaxxers, and love the Bachelor. I’m skipping to whenever Ronnie the Limo Driver yells out, “CUUUUUNT!”

Second leg of can’t miss teaser, Ravens -1

Back to the money line parlays:

Pats and Ravens ML parlays

Pats/Ravens/TB

TB in Miami laying 10 is never a good idea so let’s through them in the pile with 2 other teams who are destined to win outright today.

Yours truly told you to tease down the Buccaneers last week to -1 and hot christ, did we need every one of those teaser points as Brady won by 2 in a monsoon. It was raining so hard you would’ve thought that they replayed the 2006 and 2011 Superbowls on the jumbotron at Gilette stadium and those were the tears of Pats fans. Patriots go down to Houston where the city is generic and the football team is an absentee father. Hey, did you know Bellichik is 22-6 against rookie QBs? And good ol Darth Hoodie has lost TWO straight games? What’s my prediction for the Pats/Houston game? Paaaaain. Pats 8-4 ATS against Houston and 8-2 SU. And Houston numbers? 1-4 SU at home of late, 1-6 SU vs AFC, and 1-6 ATS in October. To quote Chris Russo, I’d be shocked…shocked…SHOCKED if the Pats didn’t run them out of the building. But I sure as hell wouldn’t lay 8.5, especially on the road…ESPECIALLY when they’re down 4 offensive linemen. I put this bet in 3 days ago but I think you know where this is going…

First leg of teaser: Pats down to -2.5

The next leg of a teaser JUMPED out at me. The Green Bay/Cincy over under is 50.5 and I’m floored it hasn’t skyrocketed. Cincy is getting Tee Higging back but Joe Mixon is banged up. Jaire Alexander is out for GB and that defense is worse than Nanette’s Netflix special. Pack have gone over 6/8 of late but the Bengals are 4/6 under at home and 6/7 vs NFC. Again, I’d be SHOCKED if this game didn’t have some points scored and when you get the 6 points to play with, 44.5 is AMAZINGLY easily to attain. That’s 24-21 and the way Burrow and Rodgers are slinging it around like Megan Fox will when she dumps be when she dumps the tiny human Rorsharch test, Travis Barker. Unless he has a drumstick hanging between his legs on that 135 lb body, I can’t see him wowing her with witticisms.

Second leg of teaser: GB over to 44.5

Carolina got smoked by Dallas like their mediocre bbq sauce. Sorry kids, it’s KC or Texas style BBQ or you’re bringing Dominos to a discussion about pizza. As of of Saturday night, McCaffrey is doubtful. You know what else is doubtful? The Eagles defense showing up and playing a competitive game. Cause they’ve let up 80 points in 2 games. Philly and everyone not named Dallas are 1-2 in the NFC east, amazing. Eagles 2-5 ATS of late, 1-7 ATS on the road. Carolina on the other hand has Sam Darnold playing out of his mind; did you know he’s the NFL rushing TD leader right now? Which continually proves the Jets can fuck up boiling water. Panthers 5-2 ATS of late and 12-5 SU vs the NFC East. And they’re 4-2 ATS in week 5. This defense is like an apple you’re about to pick with your girlfriend in an orchard because you got caught cheating on her. Cause there’s no man alive who voluntarily wants to go apple picking unless they got caught up in some shit. Also, the Eagles/Panthers have gone over 4/5

Carolina -3 and over 44.5, 2 separate bets

Vikings had a hell of a time with Cleveland last week. No, not helping Cleveland people fit in size 38 waisted pants but that defense ate Kirk Cousins the fuck up. Lions may be without Sewell, their brand new OT. They’re definitely without their top corner, their top pass rusher, and TJ Hockenson is banged up. I HAVE to think the Vikes bounce back, despite Dalvin Cook questionable. Let’s cut the horseshit:

Teaser: Vikings to -2.5 and Panthers over 38

Vegas Raiders and their number one fan, jersey name Raider Pussy 1 (wish I got a pic of it to share with you fine people), had a rough loss Monday night and missed my over tease with a late Carr pick. Call me square but Christ, do you trust Justin Fields in Vegas? Didn’t look good the last few weeks cause shit, they BARELY won against the Lions. Lions have FOUR red zone turnovers last week and the Bears won by 10. THANK GOD I did a 7 point teaser with the Lions and Vikes as I covered by .5. Bears are 2-4 ATS of late and 2-6 ATS on the road. Vegas stats don’t back up the play: 3-7 ATS of late, 1-5 SU in October, 2-4 ATS in week 5, but 4-1 SU. No David Montgomery either so it’s Damien Williams on the ground and Darnell Mooney/Allen Robinson in the air. I don’t think the Bears stand a chance and the number is right.

Oakland -5.5

So the Giants and Jets decided to do their “Requiem for a Dream” impression and make me take a double ended dildo by winning OT games last week. And as a Giants fan, I’ve seen this movie before. Giants win a game, get confidence, and start covering against the spread or even, gasp, win! Giants went 2-0 ATS last year against Dallas, winning 1 and ALMOST won both. Now, the Giants are 11-2 ATS on the road and 8-2 ATS against NFC. Dallas is 7-1 ATS and 6-2 SU of late. But Dallas 2-5 ATS against NFC East, 1-4 ATS in October, and 3-6 SU in week 5. Would you believe it if the Giants won the game? Not that crazy. Would you believe if the Giants lost but kept it close? EASILY. Could they get blown out? Sure but not likely the way the offense is starting to click.

Giants +7

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No Time to Die review SPOILER FREE James Bond 10/8/15

Here we are, the final Daniel Craig James Bond film. What’s the verdict? Slow down, junior! You just can’t whip your dick out when you go to pick her up at her house for the first date. Let’s get re-establish a base theory: Every other Bond film is good for the last 25 years: Goldeneye, good. Tomorrow Never Dies, meh. The World is Not Enough, bad. Die Another Day, bad. Casino Royale, great. Quantum of Solace, bad. Skyfall, great. Spectre, awful. So the law (specifically Craig) dictates this one would be a good one. But to be honest, the previews didn’t excite me as they looked just standard and felt this would be mailed in for Craig’s final appearance. Mix that in with the rumors of this being a “woke” Bond film and I was really, really worried. So let’s start off with this: let’s give kudos to MGM studios. I can’t remember the last time a marketing department didn’t vomit the best lines/action scenes in a trailer. Because there is a TON of stuff that they kept under wraps, specifically characters and a couple story arcs. Usually, a studio would drop a MAJOR twist in the story (unless it was THE twist) in the trailer but thankfully, not in this case. Bond is retired and of course, gets roped back in to help stop a terrorist from releasing a targeted biochemical weapon. We’ve seen this before how many times but not in this fashion. Again, no spoilers.

First off, this has to be the most layered Bond film ever. There is a TON (in a good way) of character relationship and intertwining of past story lines that make you say, “oh shit!” Usually, we get the, “bad guy/girl gets a hold of a weapon and Bond has sex with a few ladies that may or may not help in stopping said terrorist while drinking a martini/Heineken and spouting off a few pithy quips.” We get that in this installment but again, they go much deeper with the story and it WORKS. And the opening action scene that leads into the film theme song, a Bond staple. No Time to Die has the longest opening action sequence of any Bond film and holy shit, it’s solid. You also get a major reveal in the first 5-10 minutes so just like a porno, you’re off the the races without the bullshit “can you help me get my titty out of the faucet?” Just mainlined action right to your neural synapses.

Rami Mallek (Freddie Mercury without the awful dentures) plays a solid villain. Not as great as Skyfall and Casino Royale’s villains but solid nonetheless. He’s the son of a murdered father who seeks revenge but this played out angle played great in this film. And wow, do they make some BALLSY choices in this film. The good news: those choices worked for me. The action is fantastic and maintains at a high pace throughout. But here’s a problem I had which may cause you to say, “Dude, that’s EVERY Bond film.” In this film, Bond has a bomb blow up 3 feet in front of him. And he’s dirtied up but not dead. Later on, he has a bunch of grenades dropped down a stairwell less than an arms length away from him. Minor damage. The aim of the bad guys in this film is worse than any Storm Trooper or soldier in Commando. I know, suspend disbelief but after awhile, it really smashes you in the face.

Let’s address the woke rumor now. There’s a scene where Bond is changing into a tux and Ana De Armas (Knives Out and former Ben Affleck fuck buddy) is transfixed with Bond as she’s a brand new agent. He asks her to turn around while he changes. People are saying, “old James Bond would’ve banged her and/or dropped a cutesy poo line, this is bullshit.” I would’ve agreed with you but when you see this in the context of the scene (they’re going to an enemy gathering so time is of the essence) and as the great Short Round from Temple of Doom would’ve said, “No time for love!” Other than that, no woke stuff here that I picked up on.

Obviously, they begin to integrate the new 007 throughout the film (remember, Bond retired) and the verdict is she’s….fine. She has some decent action scenes, doesn’t try too hard, and plays it well. Will I go see a Bond movie starring her? I don’t know, I’ll need to see a trailer or 2. But it’s going to take a LOT for me to make the shift from an iconic franchise character over 60 years old.

This film is LONG for a Bond film, 2 hrs and 40 minutes. It does drag a bit at the end, they could’ve shaved 10-15 minutes off this puppy. But the action and storyline make this film MOVE for the first 2 hrs plus, really top notch storyline and twists. I just saw a review that said this film is too much James Bond. Well you dumb dildo, it’s a JAMES BOND FILM. Did this queefy bag of wind see an Indiana Jones film and said, “you know…too much Indy for my taste, thumbs down.” Here’s why you should never stop hating these blowhard critics. And it’s Craig’s last film, for Chrissakes! OF COURSE HE’S GOING TO GET MORE SCREENTIME THAN ANYONE ELSE. And Craig brings it in the action department as well as sides you rarely saw out of his Bond: pathos, attachment, and regret. And this film gets you with a ton of different emotions but the ones that hit me the hardest: awe for what a great job Craig did as Bond and sadness as this is the end of his Bond. NTTD FIRMLY entrenches Craig as the 2nd best Bond of all time, Connery obviously #1. This film is amazing and you better see it before the key spoilers get into the ether. This ranks in my top 10 Bond films, list below:

7.5/10

Top 10 Bond films for KG (in no order)

  1. 1. Thunderball
  2. 2. Dr. No
  3. 3. Goldfinger
  4. 4. Casino Royale
  5. 5. Skyfall
  6. 6. No Time to Die
  7. 7. Goldeneye
  8. 8. From Russia with Love
  9. 9. The Man with the Golden Gun
  10. 10. Her Majesty’s Secret Service
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