NFL Week 8 picks ATS

If you missed this week’s, “Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber,” you can catch it right here.  Catch me next week on Twitch at 5pm under Be Terrific.  Fast forward to about 4:30 in for the start of the show.

4-4 last week, meh.  Lost TB and the over.  Lost Bal and SF over.  Fucking Beathard turned that ball over more times than someone on the fix.  Couldn’t score more than 10 points in garbage time? I hit Bal under as that Tucker miss solidified the under for me.  Hit my lock of the week with SD under and thankfully, Vrabel went for 2 after that late TD.  Either way, I was winning that one.  Late hits with the Chiefs and my NY Giants brought me to .500.  And of course that, “too little, too late comeback attempt but successful backdoor cover” for the Giants.  And don’t bother with a butt sex joke, we’ve done them all.  Especially all while sitting in a steam room at NY Sports Club.  30-21 on the season which puts me at 59% and better than most Vegas handicappers and MUCH better than the weathermen and weatherladies.  Quick would you rather: Land a weatherlady or land an anchorwoman on any of the Hispanic channels?  I vote Hispanic anchorwoman.  No reason, I think it’s just a slightly higher accomplishment, as long as you don’t land the one that is also cartel member’s girlfriend.

The Lock of the week: I know the Rams just made the Niners look flat out silly last week.  Aaron Rodgers is 4-0 when the Packers are getting more than 6. Off the bye, 9-2-1. Allison and Cobb will be back. Rams 6-11-2 last 19 at home ATS. Gonna be a ton of GB fans.  So barely a home field advantage for GB.

Take GB +9.5

Facts are facts: Drew Brees is a strong MVP candidate this year.  Some people are trying to downplay the revenge factor the where the Lattimore whiffed on a tackle, Stefon Diggs runs for the TD and an insurance company endorsement deal.  Saints 4-1 ATS and 5-0 SU out of their last 5.  The line went from Saints +1 to now Saints -1.5.  Time to wait this out till Sunday as the public has obviously pounded the Saints.  Minn 3-5-2 last 10 and 1-3-1 at home.  Also, the Saints have went over 52: 6/9, 7/8 vs Minnesota, 8/10 in Minnesota, Minn over 4/6.  

I’m taking the Saints -1.5 (Waiting till tomorrow to see what the line ends up) and over 53

The Steelers have been over 6/8, 4/5 at home, Cle under 4/6 and under 4/6 on the road. 8/12 vs Pitt.  Plus, Pitt D has let at least 21 points to QBs.  21 is also the number of sandwiches most women order at Primanthi’s, 21 also the number of times they’ve hooked up with their uncles, and 21 is also the number of IQ points those water heads have.  

Plunk down some buck on Pitt over 49 (I bought it down to 48.5)

After the Chiefs game sunday night, Cincinatti looked like Houston after her 500 man gangbang.  Now they’re home and not on prime time which is key for Andy Dalton.  He’s like A-Rod, showing up when there’s no pressure but shrinking when the spotlight is at its brightest.  No Gerald McCoy and Kwon Alexander on defense for TB and boy, does Jameis “One Star Uber Passenger rating” love turning that ball over.  That fruitcake screwed me out of that over last week with all of those turnovers last week vs Cleveland.  Cincy 6-3 ATS of late and 5-2 at home.  Bucs 2-11 SU on the road.  

Grabbing the Bengals -3.5

Seattle one of the best rushing the ball, Detroit one of the worst defending the rush.  Seahawks off a bye and getting 3 points?  Heiiidy HOOOOOO.  

Taking the Seahawks +3 and their obnoxious fans.

Colts flying west to facing the Oakland Raiders who are in flat out, “selling anything not nailed down” mode.  Apparently, Derek Carr isn’t crying, YOU’RE CRYING.  They traded away Cooper who wasn’t really doing anything all that special anyway and Lynch is on IR.  Now I ask you, where are the points coming from?  Jared Cook?  I’d rather have Jared from Subway.  Raiders also 2-13 ATS against teams that have a bye the following week.  

Take the Colts -3

Bonus picks

Bears have Mack listed as questionable. But where are the Jets getting their points from?  All of their WRs are out: Enuwa, Robbie Anderson, and Wayne Chrebet all out for the Jets.  They signed Richard Matthews and who cares?  He couldn’t stay on the Titans roster?  Jets 2-5-1 on the road. 0-4-1 in Chicago. Bears 11-4-1 at home.  I know the Bears haven’t laid more than a TD in well over 5 years but again, where are the Jets getting their points from?

Take the Bears -8 but going to wait till kickoff to see the number.

Speaking of teams that are else selling their body parts for science, the Giants are home and that will be the last game of the year I attend.  As much as I enjoy the randy talk and spirited menu fare of my buddy, I can’t stomach the thought to pay to see this team nor freeze my ass off any more this year.  Giants trade Eli Apple and his annoying mother to the Saints (no big deal) and Snacks Harrison (huge deal, #1 run stopper in the NFL) to Detroit.  Washington escapes with a win against Dallas and Jason Garrett’s ability to fuck up a glass of water.  Washington 4-2 ATS of late and I know the history favors the Giants but I’m going against a team almost ready to bench their QB.

Take the Skins -1

The Niners just got smoked.  I don’t feel like going to a full handicap except that from one of my favorite gambling podcasts, RJ “Mushmouth” Bell’s Vegas dream preview, all of the guys love the Niners because the Cardinals stink and the last time they faced each other, the Niners lost but were +5 in turnovers.  They rebound against an awful Josh Rosen with turf toe.  4 likes from those sharps are enough for me to like it too.

Niners -1.5

 

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Film review: Halloween 2018

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Horror films are still a major part of film releases and we’ve come a long way in the different types.  Early horror films were iconic characters like Dracula, Frankenstein, and Bea Arthur.  Then we had zombies, exorcists, and then back to iconic characters (Freddy, Jason, Michael Myers and to lesser degrees, Chucky and Pinhead).  Then after Hollywood made those franchises silly beyond recognition, (Jason goes to space?  Michael Myers was part of a druid cult?  Hillary Clinton pulled hot sauce out of her bag to relate to black people?)  we then hit the “found footage” horror types.  The Blair Witch Project started it all and then Paranormal Activities came which then gave birth to the Exorcisms of Haywood Jablowme.  For a hot second, we had the Saw franchise sneak a couple of ok sequels in there after a fantastic opening to the series.  But mostly, we’ve seen reboots fall flat: the aforementioned Jason and Freddy rebirths were lackluster and toothless.  

So when I read they’re doing a sequel to Halloween, I could’ve given 5 cat shits.  But then, the reviews came in from the Toronto film festival that this wasn’t a reboot or sequel in its typical sense.  David Gordon Green, Danny McBride, and Jeff Fradley decided to wisely ignore ALL of the Halloween sequels and pick up 40 years after Michael was captured after being shot by Dr. Loomis.  Jamie Lee Curtis reprises Laurie Strode, who is now a recluse that has a gun arsenal that would’ve made Charlton Heston harder than a shark tooth.  She regularly engages in target practice, has a hidden entrance to her basement, and has an insane home security system.  I’m sure Alex Jones would give this house a 5 star review on Zillow.  Laurie has a daughter whom avoids her like people from Pittsburgh avoid diction lessons.  She also has a granddaughter, Allyson, who keeps in touch with her, unbeknownst to her mom and goofball dad.  Laurie keeps reminding her family that Michael is due to be transferred to a new prison and oh yeah, it’s almost Halloween and the 40 year old anniversary of when Laurie’s friends were killed for fucking or just being clumsy.  

Spoiler alert: Michael escapes during the transfer and starts killing more people in 10  minutes than he did in Halloween 1, 2, and 4.  If this is a spoiler, than you need to go to night school.  Double M racks up kills like he’s trying to break the time record of getting 5 stars in Grand Theft Auto.  This film is insanely different versus others where you think some characters have a chance to live.  Nope.  He leaves corpses everywhere like the first 10 minutes of Saving Private Ryan on the D Day Beach scene.

Let’s take a brief timeout to discuss a few gems: John Carpenter never signed off on any of the sequels.  He saw this script and IMMEDIATELY wanted to be attached.  He also signed on to do the music again and the music is as masterfully scored as the first one.  Obviously, you hear a lot of the same arrangements but with cool twists.  And like the master scorers do: Williams, Zimmer, Elfman, etc, the music intensifies the mood and puckers up all the buttholes in the audience.  Back to the story. 

So of course, MM comes back to Haddonfield and lays waste to those good town folk, in search of Laurie Strode and her offspring.  I mean, wouldn’t you move FAR away from a town your mom get sliced up in?  It’s not like they live somewhere cool like Manhattan where you weight the pros and cons of a stalker possibly returning.  You live in a suburban town, ANY of them around the country can suit you just fine.  Why stick it out in Nowheresville where there’s the chance that lunatic could escape and easily track you down because of your laziness?  

Here’s why this film works and other serious reboots like the Batman trilogy, Star Trek reboots, or Dredd worked: Because they took it seriously and made it DARK.  No campy horseshit, no cheap gimmicks like the lack of cell phone reception.  There are a few laughs, some land and some don’t.  But man, these film knows how to build tension and hold it.  There are plenty of visual and musical nods to the original film.  And what really works is you really believe Michael is truly an evil spirit with ZERO human emotion.  Throughout the film, the characters BEG him to say “something.”  The reactions are priceless.  And you truly buy into Michael being a badass by just murdering ANYONE in the way but not for the sake of gore but for the sake of letting nothing stop him in killing Laurie Strode.  

This is EASILY one of the best horror film sequels ever made.  But honestly, besides the original Halloween 2 (It’s fine), Nightmare on Elm Street 3 (love it), or Friday the 13th 2 or 3 (Meh) Dawn of the Dead (maybe), this isn’t stiff competition.  Some will say that Silence of the Lambs (yes, that’s a sequel) or Aliens fall under horror.  I would call them thrillers, not horror.  This film is AWESOME, I dare you not to love it.  You’ll get sucked right in for the 105 minutes and already make plans to see it again.  But in the daytime when not many people will be in the theater.  Because most people chew loudly and make unwarranted, dumb remarks to their friend instead of shutting up for 2 hours.

I give it an 8/10

NFL Week 7 picks ATS

Last week, your hero got back on track!  5-2 for the week as I hit the Atl -3 (57 yarder, holy shit!), Niners over, Pitt +2, Den +7 and under 50.5.  Lost Giants under and Titans.  26-17 for the year, putting me at 60% for the season.  Last week, I reported 60% but I was off by a few points, 58%.  Remember, Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber is on Twitch TV and Facebook Live on Fridays at 5pm.  Looks us up there under Be Terrific TV and here’s a link from 10/19’s show with Gerard Haran!

 

And now, more FREEEEEEEE MONEY!

In my lock of the week, the Chargers and Titans go to London to play a game as well as marvel how the majority of women wear fake eyelashes.  Found that out when I was there 2 weeks ago.  Also, in their casino at Leicester, the dealers stay on soft 17 in blackjack.  BUT they don’t take their second card until all of the players have acted.   And the Brits at my tables didn’t know what the hell they were doing so be warned.  Back to the handicap.  Chargers stayed in Cleveland after they shit on that town just like life does every day.  But they’re still a west coast time playing at 9:30am EST.  Tennessee just got done not scoring against Baltimore.  And we know how these early games usually fair.  Raiders/Seattle this year, under.  Jags/Ravens last year, under.  Minnesota/Cleveland last year, under.  Tennessee has a top 10 defense and AVERAGES 17 fantasy points to QBs; only 2 QBs have went above 17 pts in 6 weeks.  And Phil Rivers had a light passing game against a solid Cle pass defense, Melvin Gordon gouged them for 3 ground TDs.  Speaking of Melvin Gordon, he’s the third of his family with the name Melvin.  C’mon, Melvin isn’t a great name to hang on your son for future generations.  Don’t give me that “family name” argument.  How about a LITTLE originality for the kid?  Oh, and as of Saturday night, Gordon is now downgraded to questionable and a game time decision.  Tennessee is weaker against the run so that’s a huge blow if he sits and he’ll be hampered if he does give it a go.  Some numbers?  Sure!  Titans have gone under 4/5, they can’t run nor pass with a banged up Mariota.  And Henry has been god awful for them on the ground.  Where are the points coming from?  Not from 2 jet lagged teams and especially ones with key guys on offense that are out/banged up.

Lock of the week, Tenn under 45.5 

Tampa Bay fired head coach turned/defensive coordinator/turned employed buffoon.  Watching him coach Atlanta was like watching Lena Dunham try and throw a football.  Horrendously awkward and zero respect given.  Tampa also just lost a heartbreaker to Atlanta and their “defense.”  Jesus, more people have been touched against a blind kid in Red Rover than Atlanta’s defense has.  Jameis “1 star Uber passenger rating” Winston was impressive carving up the Falcons last week.  Tampa leads the NFL in YPP at 7.2 Cle does have a good pass defense but as we saw last week, they’re awful on the ground.  Peyton Barber should have a good game as well.  Cleveland has given up 38 and 42 points in 2 of the last 3 weeks.  As for Tampa defense, it stinks worse than Chinatown in the summertime.  Tampa hasn’t given up less than 20 points SINCE LAST YEAR.  Hell, they’ve only given up <30 ONCE this year.  Cleveland has gone over 12/17 on the road.  Tampa has gone over 5/5 and oh yeah, Tampa 4-2 ATS at home.  

Take the Bucs 3-5 and I got the over 50 but now it’s 52. But don’t take an Uber pool with Jameis Winston.

The Saints are off the bye and they head down to Baltimore where it’s so bad that even the tourists won’t dare do The Wire walking tour.  Saints are fantastic off the bye at home, 2-0.  But on the road after a bye, 0-2.  Saints also 2-4 SU on the road.  Ravens have top defense, 4.2 YPP, and the #3 run defense.  Oh yeah, it’s supposed to be quite windy tomorrow, winds around 15mph.  Saints are 1-6-1 ATS vs Bal.  Baltimore both 6-1 SU and ATS at home vs the Saints.  Let’s talk the total which is now 49.  Saints are obviously are great home and dome team. But playing in Baltimore, the under went 4/6.  And Baltimore of late, 4/5 under.  I can’t tee it up anymore so…

Take Baltimore -3 and under 49.  I locked in the other day at Bal -2.5 and under 50 so bully for me.

Last one of the day.  I hit the Niners over by early 3rd quarter on monday night.  I ask you, what’s better than that, hitting your over just after the halfway point?  I’ll allow going out to a bar and having the hottest girl come up to you, buy you a drink, and then asking to go back to your place. The Niners defense is worse than a prolapsed anus.  Ever see one of those in a porn?  Yeah, that causes you to go softer than seeing your mom naked.  Unless your Pam Anderson’s kid, then getting tumescent is a daily routine and no one came blame you.  Some stats: SF over 5/5 and 5/6 over at home.  Rams over 8/12 of late and 8/11 on the road.  Rams secondary is banged up and on the road again.  They’re putting up pts for sure and their secondary isn’t as good without Talib.  No Cooper Kupp for the Rams though however they’ll slice through the Niners defense which has allowed as many points as morning after diarrhea attacks I have in Vegas after all day drinking sessions.  The Niners D hasn’t given up <20 points since LAST DECEMBER.  52 may be a lot but the Rams are good for at LEAST 31 against this poop squad.

Niners over 52

Week 6 NFL Picks ATS

I hope you appreciated last week’s video with my buddy, English Jonny.  I hope you are able to look past the 3-3 weekend I had last week.  And I really hope you didn’t take the Giants under on Thursday night.  What timing, the MINUTE the game starts, it stops raining.  Which brings my total to 21-15 for the year, 60% for the year.  Which makes me better than most of you at this.  And if you want to hear who the Cold Cash/Hot Trash fantasy plays are for the week, check out my show on Twitch!  It’s called, Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber and we usually are on Fridays at 5pm.  We also have it in podcast form on Libsyn and very shortly, Spotify and iTunes.  So let’s get to this week’s FREEEE money picks!

Sometimes, the numbers blast you in the face with such force that you can’t help to ignore them.  Sometimes, these numbers force you to ignore other numbers and trends that have proven over longer periods of time.  Ben Roethlisberger stinks on the road, we all know that.  But did you know that Ben is 21-5 SU in the state of Ohio and 21-8 ATS?  They’re in Cincinnati, back to the scene where Ryan Shazier got pretzeled.  Oh yeah, we’re getting 2 points on top of it?  Sold.  Ben and the Steelers are coming around and yes, even the D finally closed its legs and stop letting everyone take a turn coming inside.  Cincinnati has had SEVERAL lucky wins: Indy, ATL, and last week against Miami.  I think this is the week their luck runs dry like Cloris Leachman’s privates. This case in point brought to you by: Alabama fans.  If there’s a Caribbean island that needs people wearing Oakley glasses on the back of their neck while wearing flips flops in the pool, it’s Alabama fans or it’s nothing!  

Take the Steelers +2

The Rams couldn’t be hotter.  But last week was the first week they didn’t cover in Seattle.  What does LA have trouble with?  Keeping the homeless people from shitting all over the place.  Fuck, I should’ve worded that differently.  What do the RAMS have trouble doing?  Stopping the run.  Chris Carson ran for over 100 against them last week.  What does Denver do well?  Run, they’re #2 in the league in rushing attack.  Oh, Cooper Kupp and Brandon Cooks are in concussion protocol.  Warm weather team coming into the Rockies…into snow??  Yeah, they’re going to run the ball.  I don’t see the Rams having those receivers rush into crazy action or snap counts.  The number is perfect so I’m going to toss out all the recent stats showing that Denver sucks of late.  Especially the 1-6-1 ATS line at home.  But Denver is 6/9 under at home.  And Den is getting 7, a perfect number.  If they’re down, they could back door it late or even keep it close throughout.

Take Den +7 and under 50.5

The Falcons are just bad on defense, like really bad.  Like, as bad as that movie, Tag.  DON’T watch it, I didn’t even smile once.  Well, right when I turned it off I did.  Then I realized I wasted 95 minutes of my life.  Then I went back to frowning again.  This week, the Falcons get the Bucs at home.  Jameis Winston is back after his suspension for touching an uber driver.  Have you ever had an uber driver that you just felt the urge to cop a feel?  Most of my uber drivers look like Carl Winslow so that’s a no for me.  I know I’m ignoring how the Bucs may be statistically better.  But goddamnit, I just cannot see them losing AGAIN and to a Bucs D which is as bad as that film, Tag.  Yep, that film is so bad, I referenced it again.  The number is right and I’ll be shocked if these idiots cannot cover 3.

Take the Falcons -3.

Lastly, Tennessee is 5-0 ATS at home, 7-3 overall.  They were a dropped TD away from covering and winning last week.  This is Baltimore’s 3rd straight road game and teams are 42% ATS in covering when it’s their 3rd straight road game.  Tennessee has a solid defense so I’ll take the home dog.

Titans +2.5

I gotta see how I do today but I kinda like the Pats getting revenge tonight at home against the Chiefs and tomorrow’s GB over 46.5  When Aaron Rodgers calls out their conservative play calling, expect points.  And I think the Niners will be chasing points which can help achieve that over.

Film Review of “Bad Times at the Old Royale”

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Yep, it’s been a minute.  Why?  Because I heard Venom sucked.  Because seeing Night School is for people who barely have a GED.  Because I could care less about Crazy, Rich Asians than I care about than the homeless problem in Sudan.  The best film in September-Thanksgiving is like the NL East division winner, you get a playoff spot by being the best of the worst shitbox teams.  What else besides Halloween, Creed 2, Wreck it Ralph 2 and maybe Bohemian Rhapsody look good?  Johnny English?  Another garbage sequel that no one asked for.  So when the preview BTATOR came out, I thought that this has a shot of being decent.  Early positive reviews confirmed my thoughts so I figured, time to pony up 11 bucks to a matinee.  You may be thinking, “why not wait till movie pass picks it up?”  Because I don’t feel like waiting till the next election to see this film.  

A priest, singer, bellhop, vacuum salesman, runaway and her weird sister, and cult leader all stay at hotel that is split in half by state lines.  Cute idea but wish it played more into the plot. If you’re going to see this, you’ll going to say in 10 minutes, this is similar to Pulp Fiction.  Remember, nothing will top Pulp Fiction.  Don’t argue with me as that’s an infallible argument.  The stories are told in a circular fashion and from multiple angles.  Of course, this hotel has its own secrets and no one is who they seem who they are.  

Jeff Bridges plays Father Flynn, which is a cute nod to one of his early roles as Flynn from Tron.  Time and probably cigarettes have added to that gravelly voice of his; another 3 bottles of gin and he’s right into Sam Elliot vocal territory.  Hello avalanche of voiceover roles!  I did a double take with Dakota Johnson as she looks damn near exactly like Sophie Marceau.  Last I saw of her, she was in one of the worst Bond films of all time.  “The World is Not Enough” is in “A View to a Kill” territory.  Only saving graces of that piece of shit are Sophie and Denise Richards.  Goddamn, it’s a shame her looks became as bad as her acting.  Anyway, Dakota looks fantastic and kills it as a badass with a checkered past.  Jon “Footlong Dong” Hamm plays a vacuum salesman that turns out to be an FBI agent.  Mix in Lewis Pullman expertly playing a nebbishy bellhop and Cynthia Erivo playing a “Supremes-esque” background singer and you have a pretty solid cast of characters.

The problem with my review is so much is going on that I don’t want to spoil anything. I enjoyed a few curveballs and wait till Billy Lee (Chris Hemsworth) shows up. It’s a sadistic cult leader character that we haven’t seen yet.  And we’re used to Hemsworth shooting lighting and throwing hammers so it’s nice to see some range out of him.  My biggest complaint is this film begins drag at the 2 hour mark, ending at 2:21.  I think if they would’ve trimmed 15-20 minutes off of this, it would’ve felt much more concise.  Cut a little here and there and this would be a fantastic tale.  But this is a pretty damn good tale nonetheless.  Could you wait till Netflix, sure.  But if you’re looking to see something in the theater, I highly recommend this.  Otherwise, this is going to be a long season of banal shit.  

I give it a 7 out of 10.

NFL Picks Week 4 ATS

6-3 last week!  2 out of 3 weeks, I’ve won you money.  And not one of you sent me a cut or a thank you note.  Didn’t your mothers teach you better manners?  I didn’t take Thursday night’s game as I debated about Minnesota (push) and the under (definite miss.  I think we all know the Rams over will be the lock of the week for the season.)  

Breakdown: I took Indy and the under, Jets under, Cincy over, Miami, and the Saints.  The Giants under missed with exactly 1 second left on the clock and of course, that was the big bet of the week.  Lost the TB under on Monday night, lost the Niners when Jimmy G snapped that ACL but will still be snapping that porn star puss.  15-8 on the year, why the fuck don’t I have a gambling show yet??!?!?!  

The Oakland Raiders are 0-3, just like most of their fans’ parole hearings.  Are they that bad or the victims of bad luck?  They’ve blown 3 leads at halftime and now they get Baker Mayfield on the road in his first start?  In the black hole?  Remember when betting, you’re playing the number, which is Oak -2.5 here.  Home field is 3 points so what Vegas is trying to say is Cleveland is .5 better than Oakland on a neutral site?  With a QB who has ONE HALF under his belt.  Not buying it.  And Oakland is due for a win, especially at home.  Oh yeah, rookie QBs making their first start on the road?  ZERO out of 10.

Take the Raiders -2.5.  I may even take the under 45 as Oak under 9/10, 5/5 at home, and 4/5 vs Cleveland.

You know what Carson Wentz didn’t do last week?  Throw for a shitload of yards and TDs, just like I said he wouldn’t.  And now they face a rather stingy Tennessee defense.  And Tennessee’s Mariota looks like he got hit by that volcano eruption in his native Hawaii.  Tennessee is also a heavy run offense.  How do the Eagles fare against the run?  #2, just like me in the bathroom 5 minutes ago?  Titans have scored totals of 17, 20, and 9 pts this year.  Eagles have scored 20, 21, and 18 this year.  This game screams 17-13 so let’s be wise and take 

Tennessee under 41.5, I bought the .5

Atlanta defense is like the testimony of the second Cavanaugh accuser, possibly full of holes and supposedly gang banged up.  Missing both starting safeties is not a way to start against Andy Dalton, who has been slinging it all over the place.  Much like a recently divorced woman at an Appelebee’s on a Friday night. 1/2 off appetizers will get her pants fully off in that bathroom!  Falcons just played nearly 5 quarters against the Saints and that defense is as gassed like a fat kid doing suicides.  Not shooting up a school and then killing himself, I’m talking about running back and forth for an hour straight followed up by puking. You know,  the good ol days where coaches would call you a faggot for missing the cutoff man.  Cincy lists AJ Green as probable so that’s huge.  The only thing that scares is the line opened +5.5 and now it’s down to 3.5.

Take the Bengals while you can get the 3.5, it’s still a good number.

Sigh, I said I don’t do normally do this…I know, I sound like a woman during a one night stand.  But I’m going to make a case for the NY Giants and break my own rule of betting them.  Saints played nearly 5 quarters last week.  And that defense stinks worse than my house after a night of my wife’s Buffalo wing dip (to die for) and beers.  Saints defense AVERAGES 33 points again.  And now they’re on the road but more importantly, outside of a dome.  The Giants beat them the last time they came to Giants stadium and now they’re catching 3.5?  Saints are 1-5 SU in NY and the under has hit 5/7 when they’ve played?  Vernon and Apple are out again on defense.  Then again, they were out last week against Houston and they won.  

Let’s cross those fingers and toes and take the Giants +3.5

I kinda like but probably won’t bet: GB (home against a Bills team who shot their load last week), Detroit +3, Jets +7.5 (3rd road game in a row kind of scares me about the Jets but the number is right), Chargers -10.5 (Large number, may buy it down to 9.5, depends how I do with the 1pm games.)

And now it’s time for the lock of the week.  Quite shocked this number is moving this way and a bit annoyed I locked in too earlier.  But the Colts -1.5 (now a pick ’em or even +1) is a steal.  Hopkins went through limited practice with a couple of injuries, limited as questionable, but he’ll go.  And Houston’s secondary is trash.  Houston 2-7-2 playing Indy, 2-5-1 in Indy.  Colts could’ve won in weeks 1 and 3 EASILY.  They’re 2-1 ATS and could be 2-1-1 if they didn’t turn it over late week 1.  

I have the Colts at -1.5 but you can get them at a Pick or even +1, get that NOW if you can.

 

 

 

 

 

NFL picks ATS week 3

Some weeks you’re the hammer, some you’re the nail.  Last week, I went 3-5 (technically 3-4 because I didn’t get the Pitt pick in so I saved a few bucks).  I lost on Houston (Hey Deshaun Watson, when you have 14 seconds left, don’t scramble around while looking for an open receiver.  Throw it away and give the kicker a shot.)   I lost on Philly who let Fitzpatrick go all Fitzpatrick over them.  The Giants offensive line let Dallas defense gangbang Eli Manning.  However, the Giants didn’t score and neither Dallas so the under hit.  The Jets under also hit and the Chargers forced Vontae Davis to quit in halftime in their easy cover.  I also took the Seahawks on Monday night who took a colossal dump on themselves against the Bears as Russ Wilson threw a pick 6 when on a potential game tying drive late in the 4th quarter.  So last night, 9/20, I took the Browns under 41 against the Jets.  Amazing how I had to sweat that under out for so long as Tyrod and Darnold did their best impressions of kids with no arms trying to play jai alai.  But then Baker Mayfield comes in, wins the game, and unlocks the Bud Light fridges for the city of Cleveland.  And just for one evening, everyone in Cleveland enjoyed themselves and forgot how ugly everyone is in that town.

So 1-0 to start this week, let’s get you (and me) more freeeeeeeee money.

Carson Wentz is back this week and I think he’s going to look like Pete Wentz from Fall Out Boy.  The Eagles definitely rushed him back and it’s going to show.  Wentz is going to be treated with kid gloves and he’s without a ton of options: Jay Alai is probably out, no Alshon Jeffrey, no Mike Wallace.  They’re going to hand it off a lot and keep him safe.  The Colts come in after beating the Skins and Luck still isn’t airing it deep yet.  I don’t see this being a high scoring affair and the stats back it up: 9/10 have went under for Indy and recently 5/5 have went under for Indy. Philly also has been an under machine, 5/6 at home were under.  And Philly is still perfect as a garbage town with garbage fans.

Take the under 47 and the Colts + 7.

Like “men” who play Pokemon go, they don’t score.  You know who else doesn’t score?  The NY football Giants.  Eli Manning’s offensive line is like Ray Liotta’s face.  Full of holes and hard to watch.  I learned my lesson, again, about betting them as I thought they would show up against Dallas.  Houston finally comes home but they’re not lighting up the scoreboard.  They floundered in NE and Tennessee.  Giants are 5/6 with the under on the road and 8 of their last 9 under.  Houston also on the under train, 6/7.  I think the Giants are going to cover 6 this week but I’d rather lay my money on a sure thing; which is your wife after a few too many Long Island Ice Teas what she tells you is her,
girls’ night out”.  But I’ll settle for the second best lock.

Take the Giants under 42.

Home field is usually 3 points in the NFL.  So you mean to tell me that if the Packers played the Redskins on a neutral field, they’re an evenly matched team?  Right now, Aaron Rodgers is listed as questionable but it’s not the usual questionable.  He didn’t practice all last week, deemed questionable, but played on Sunday.  Rodgers hasn’t practiced all week and is again on track to play on Sunday.  The Skins are banged up and aren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard; 9 points against the Colts and 24 against AZ.  Rodgers admits the knee will be tough to heel.  Speaking of healing, nothing worse than dealing with A) a blister on your foot B) burn on the roof of your mouth or C) getting into a salt water tank with an exposed hemorrhoid.  Washington is recently 5/5 and 4/5 with the under at home. There’s a chance of rain but a better chance of this game going 

GB Under 45.5 but hold on to see if it climbs by Sunday.  

The Bengals made the Ravens look worse than the Baltimore school system.  No Joe Mixon so I’ll wager they air it out more; especially with PPR sensation, Giovanni Bernard now the lead back.  10 days to plan out how to gash the Carolina defense.  And Carolina is 7/10 over at home.  Carolina just lost in a shootout to Atl and Cincy has put up 34 in each game this year.  Let’s hope there’s a “hurricane” of points in Carolina on Sunday.

Take the Bengals over 44

The Saints have been more disappointing this year than the last season of Entourage/Entourage film/Ballers.  Smell a theme?  Yeah Marky Mark, I’m talking to you, Mr 22 Mile.  Jesus, it must be great not to have to read a script in the last 10 years when they offer 25 million plus a film.  Brees on the road?  Meh. Brees on the road in a dome, I’m tumescent.  A banged up Julio Jones, although he’s practiced this week, but other key players on the o-line and D are banged up for the Falcons.  Saints 13-5-1 on the road and 4-2 vs ATL.  But to me, this is a, “if not now, when?” game for the Saints.  They need a convincing road win and this is the time.

Saints +2.5 (I Bought the .5 point to +3)

SF is on the road in KC this week. Do I think Jimmy G can backdoor a cover and then backdoor his porn star gf?  Easily. The KC defense is sloppier than a Kansas family of 5 taking down a Golden Corral buffet after sunday church.  SF is 7-3 ATS on the road and KC let Pitt right back into the game after going up 3 scores early.  No other pithy jokes or observations here.

Take the Niners +6.5 (I bought the half point to +7)

And since I’m tired of analysis and jokes for the last pick, the Raiders fly 3000 miles to play in 90 degree heat and give another lackluster performance.  And it’s your typical, west coast flies east to play a 1pm game.  

Go with the Dolphins -3 (I bought the .5 point to -2.5)