Week 14 NFL picks ATS 12/12/20

If you couldn’t tell, I’m PSYCHED to see Gutting the Sacred Cow is now #15 on iTunes film review!!! WOW

I guess the pic of Ben Affleck palming J-Lo’s ass was the lucky charm I needed! An OUSTANDING 5-1-1 last week. The only loss was can you believe the fucking Steelers couldn’t win outright at home against the Skins? Teased that down to -1 but man, what a kick to the balls. Can’t complain when you on the other hand, have Oakland throw up a bomb to get the backdoor cover to push on another teaser. And the Giants under, Rams and Browns… barely broke a sweat in those games. I took the Rams und-AH on Thursday night as well, pushing the yearly total to 44-34-3 (56%) for the year. Back on track to help pay for those Christmas or whatever you celebrate presents.

Cardinals have been REALLY bad of late and that’s because for whatever the reason, Kyler Murray isn’t running. Rams kept him contained last week and that shoulder must be a bit balky. Now they fly east for a 1pm game against my NY Giants who FLOORED myself and the world by beating Seattle in Seattle with a backup QB. Daniel Jones was a full participant at practice Friday so I assume he’s a go. More stats for you: Cardinals 1-6 ATS of late and yet again, that 1 win was the hail mary to beat Buffalo. Historical numbers point to AZ as they’re 6-1 in NY and they’re 4-1 SU and ATS but that goes back how many QBs ago? And Giants are 5-1 ATS of late, the 1 ATS loss was the Bengals. They COVER as dogs and they’re 4-1 SU of late. Giants d has 20 points or fewer in 4 straight games (all wins), 3rd in takeaways, 8th in sacks, 10th in overall defense. There are a lot of games that need teasing this week so I had to partner this up with someone. I jumped on when it was 3, it’s now 2. JUST to be on the safe side but I do like them straight up, MAYBE even on the money line.

Giants +9 for teaser leg number 1.

What else can I tease besides all you people who think A Christmas Story is a good movie? It’s fucking terrible and this week on Gutting the Sacred Cow Podcast; I depants it, run it through a shredder, and pour it into a bathtub filled with lye. Let’s pick on the Eagles (yet again) starting a rookie QB. They’re not scoring points with Hurts making his NFL debut and of late, they’ve been awful. 6/6 have gone under, 4/5 vs NO, 11/13 at home. Saints have went under 5/5 of late and 4/5 against NFC.

Saints under 49.5 leg number 2

Two teams that have garbage defenses. Two teams that have excel in garbage time scoring. Utah, gimme 2! I couldn’t think of something else to start with 2 so you get one of the best movie quotes of all time. But let’s look at some no brainers stats. Titans 5/6 over of late, 5/6 on the road. 9-2-1 over out of 11, 18-3-1 over out of 22. Titans have 4 games they scored 35 or more in. Facing a Jags defense that is a Phantom Menace level of awful: dead last in total yards allowed and passing yards allowed, 2nd to last in rushing yards allowed. Jags 29th in points allowed. Jags over 7/10 against Tenn and 10/14 vs AFC. Say no more.

Titans over 52.5

The Colts are facing the Raiders this week who A) are missing key players on defense and B) already have the 29th ranked defense for sacks as 28th in scoring defense. And the Colts defense hasn’t been as lights out as it was earlier on: 17, 31, 45, and 20 points allowed. Colts have gone over 6/8 and 4/5 in Vegas/Oakland, 7/10 against AFC. Vegas over 9/12 and 4/5 at home. Josh Jacobs is questionable and Devonta Booker did whogatz against the goddamn Jets defense. They’ll have to air it out and I’m spot starting Rivers tomorrow in fantasy playoffs. 51.5 is the current number but I said let’s have less to sweat out.

1st leg of a teaser Colts over 45.5

Anthony Lynn and Donald Trump will be holding hands along with Adam Gase in the unemployment line sooner than later. But 1 thing you can bank on; after getting your doors blown off, NFL teams USUALLY respond with a resounding effort. And yours truly told you to take the Pats last week in a cakewalk 45-0 blowout. Enter the Atlanta Falcons. 30th in QB rushing yards allowed, 30th in passing yards, and 32nd to QB rushing TDs. Oh yeah, no Julio Jones either. Now, numbers do favor ATL: 7-2 ATS on the road, 6-0 SU in LAC. Chargers 0-6 ATS of late; 1-4 ATS and 1-5 SU at home. Now I know Anthony Lynn can fuck up a cup of coffee but the Chargers HAVE to answer back, especially Herbert against a defense that’s worse than Police Academy: Mission to Moscow. Yes, they made it. Yes, it’s terrible and I bailed after 15 minutes. Like I said, Anthony Lynn is like the dealer DeNiro fired for incompetence in Casino. But if they don’t answer the bell after that gang rape last week, they might as well fire him Monday. But let’s REALLY help our cause out and…

2nd leg of the teaser: Chargers to +7.5

The new car smell that came when the Detroit Lions fired Patricia is over. Aaron Rodgers comes in and boy, he’s dealing this year. Everyone who gambled on him in fantasy looks like a genius. GB 8-4 ATS and 4-1 SU of late. I know GB has had troubles in Detroit, 1-6 ATS, but probably no Golladay and Swift again. Detroit 2-4 ATS and 5-15 SU of late. I’m seeing GB between laying between 8-9 points but I got lucky and jumped on when it was 7.5. But juuuuuust in case Detroit may keep it close and try to backdoor…

1st leg of teaser: GB -1.5 And if I were you, I’d tease it to -2.5 if possible; even lay the extra vig for a 7 pt teaser.

Well, I said it before and I’ll say it again. Nothing makes me happier than betting against the Philadelphia Eagles and winning money. Did it last week and now they finally sit Carson Wentz (from MVP to 25 million dollar albatross, HAHAHAHA!) and bring in Jalen Hurts. And what a time to do so; against the TOP RANKED DEFENSE IN THE NFL? Doug Pederson, if anything, is a goddamn masochist. Saints 5-0 ATS, 9-0 SU of late. Tell me more about Philly besides a town of people that made up a word, jawn, that’s more retarded than their chants. First time I heard that, I thought they were making a Suzyn Waldman reference. Deeper cut, go google it. NO is 4-2 ATS, 5-1 SU in Philly, and 5-0 SU on the road. Philly 4-9 ATS of late and now with a rookie QB facing #1 defense in the last month, 3rd in sacks, 44 points allowed in the last 5 games, and the Saints have allowed TWO touchdowns in FIVE games. Oh yeah, they also had the #2 offense in the last month. Since we need to pair the GB game with someone, let’s make it even easier than those crawdaddy tourist muggers.

2nd leg of teaser, Saints -.5 And I also took the Eagles team total under 18 points for all of the reasons above.

Here’s one that may make you cock your head (you perverts) and say, really? I could be a little off base but the numbers will back this play. We all love the Chiefs since last year but if you’re not teasing them or taking them on the money line, you’ve lost A LOT of money on them of late. They’re 1-4 ATS but 7-0 SU of late as well as 8-0 SU on the road. Lastly, they haven’t won a game by more than SIX points in their last 4 games. Now they go to Miami who has been playing rock solid defense. Miami is an NFL best 9-3 ATS, 7-1 ATS of late as well as SU. Miami is also 7-2 SU home against KC, WOW! Miami has scored 20 or fewer in their last 3 but that leaky KC defense doesn’t scare anyone. Hell, Denver covered playing the Chiefs last week. I think Miami keeps this close but I’m always afraid of the Chiefs exploding. So maestro, a little extra cushion if you would?

First leg of the teaser Miami +13

And because I love the Saints this week more than my wife (Just kidding honey, these are just jokes that will pay for Christmas presents), I’m pairing the Saints again as part of a teaser.

Second leg of the teaser Saints -.5

And now, the premier matchup of the week. Pittsburgh has looked sloppy the last 2 games and losing to Washington, wow. They’re also down 2 LBs, have injuries on the o-line. This line JUMPED from Pitt -1.5 to Buffalo -1.5 as the sharps pounded this early. Is it recency bias because of the way the Bills grabbed the Niners like a bowling ball and then tossed them out like a parking ticket in a foreign country? Maybe. Steelers are 7-3 ATS of late but they haven’t had a “bye” since week 5. Let’s add this is the Steelers 3rd game in 12 days and they might be on fumes at this point. Buffalo fresh off a bye and 4-1 ATS, 5-1 SU and 5-1 SU at home. Look, I get why you would want to back Pitt, especially since they’re 17-5 ATS off a loss and against a winning team. But my gut says Pitt may be sluggish and the Bills are fired up. The number is sure right to take them…

Bills -1.5

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