Week 11 NFL picks against the spread

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3-2-1 last week so back in the W column. Pushed the Chargers teaser (wish I got 8.5 instead of 8), lost the Ravens teaser (they’re not as good as we thought they were) and also lost the Bears on MNF (Cousins snaps his 0-9 skid against an anemic Bears offense). Won the other 2 teasers and the Rams so bravo for me. Which puts me at 32-27-2 for the year, 54% overall. Still making money

Detroit Lions are lot like me in my early 20’s. I would be chatting up a lady at a bar and have her on the line. And a good chunk of the time, I would say something that would inevitably fuck up the situation and keep me from getting laid. And that’s the Lions, they’ll have 1st half leads and blow them late as their defense is worse than living in Detroit. Today, they are facing PJ Walker and they’re still likely down two OL (both doubtful). I’m gambling that Stafford plays (thumb) and all signs point to yes. No Golladay and no Swift, I know. But I think Stafford guides them to a first half lead and even if it’s tied, I’ll push.

Det 1H Pick em. It jumped to -1.5 but I locked in yesterday however I would still lay the 1.5

I don’t count player props in my W/L record (although I did hit Russ Wilson over rushing yds monday night!) but here’s one for you that jumped out me. GB defense allows 7 yds per target to RB. Nyheim Hines had a great game last week against a porous Tenn D so why not expect the same this week? Low number but higher vig (-120)

Hines over 27.5 yds

Titans are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS when getting 4 or more. What did the Ravens show me in that monsoon monday night? They’re not as good as we think? And the Titans got their doors blown off Thursday night against the Colts. The worst secret is that the Ravens can’t come from behind at all. Titans have 3 extra days to prep; plus the Ravens play Thanksgiving night. You don’t think they aren’t looking ahead to facing Pittsburgh that night? I do. Tenn 3-7 ATS of late but 9-4 SU. They are 1-4 ATS on the road. But just like boobs, more is better. So let’s go from 6.5 to 12.5 and watch the Titans keep this REALLY close, maybe even catch the Ravens in a trap game.

First half of the teaser, Tenn +12.5

As much as I loathe the Eagles (had the Giants in a teaser last week, didn’t need the points!), they’ve got to win today to stay competitive in the bargain bin of mediocrity known as the NFC east. Good news is that Philly is 5-0 SU against Cle. Bad news is Philly is 3-7 ATS of late and 1-4 ATS. Good news is Browns are 1-4 ATS of late and 3-6 ATS for the season. Also, 2-10 SU against NFC east. Bad news is Browns are 6-2 SU and 8-2 SU at home. A perfect world for me would be Philly losing but covering. Most importantly, Miles Garrett is out for the Browns which gives the 25 million dollar bust known as Carson Wentz some time to let receivers run their routes. Plus, Philly does have a pass rush and Mayfield averaging 5.8 yds per attempt. Give me a 20-16 Browns W…

Second half of teaser Philly +8.5

Ravens under 7/10, 10/13 under vs Tenn, 4/5 at home, 7/7 home against Tenn. Again, the Ravens have a game in 3 days, they’re not going to go crazy expending all of their energy. Titans bread and butter is Derrick Henry so expect a lot of running.

Tenn under 50.5

It’s the Taysom Hill spectacular! You know, the guy that is now eligible in some of your fantasy leagues as a TE that sent fantasy owners screaming to their commissioner? Who know how long this experiment lasts but I only care for 1 game. Falcons off a bye and believe it or not; they’re playing hard for Raheem Morris. Falcons 7-2 ATS of late, 7-3 SU in last 10 against NFC south. 1-4 ATS against NO but that’s against Brees. I have no idea what to expect but I sure as shit expect Matt Ryan to air out it and keep it close against a QB who spends his off season knocking on your doors at 7am on a Saturday; asking if you’d like have a copy of the Watchtower. So let’s REALLY give ourselves a cushion in case that Falcons defense makes like Eugene Robinson in the superbowl and gets busted for soliciting prostitutes that turn out to be a cop.

1st half of teaser is Falcons +10.5

We all know Andy Reid is as much of a lock after a bye as much as your moms are after 3 appletini’s at a TGI Friday’s happy hour. Now add how the Raiders did a victory lap on them after they won in KC the first go around. Finally, a pinch of Maholmes telling the media that they’re more than ready (paraphrase). The Chiefs are going to decimate them: Chiefs are 15-3 ATS and 17-1 SU of late. 10-5 ATS against Vegas and 5-1 SU. 6-0 on the road and 4-1 SU in Vegas. Please. And Vegas a much better road team than home, 2-5 ATS at home. But I need another team to tease so I’ll make this game less than a FG.

2nd half of teaser is KC -1 but I’d tease ANY number down to below a TD. It’s going to be a romp, 1995 Florida State Bobby Bowden style.

Already hit a the first half of my next teaser, AZ +9, on Thursday night. I will say that the Seattle safety sent shivers up my butthole which cut it to 4. Thank Christ Seattle just kicked a FG to win by 7.

I have no idea how GB is getting points. Yes, they didn’t cover against Jax and it was close for awhile. GB 6-3 ATS of late, 13-3 SU. GB also 4-1 ATS on the road and I get Rodgers in a dome? I don’t see Rivers able to throw the ball that well; even against a weak GB defense but they are getting Jaire Alexander back in the secondary. Yes, Indy is 4-0-1 SU home against GB but those are mostly if not all of Andrew Luck’s years. Now let’s make things even more interesting because I have to fill another teaser and give me 6 points? HIGHLY doubt GB loses, let alone by more than a TD

Second half of the teaser GB +7.5

If there’s one team that can fuck up a cup of coffee (Name that film…Casino!), it’s the Chargers. They’ve been snakebitten left and right and Justin Herbert has 1 win this year? Christ. They got hosed against the Raiders. But holy hell, if they can’t take down the worst team in the last 10-15 years, Anthony Lynn should be forced to watch Napoleon Dynamite and 2001 Space Odyssey (2 films we did on Gutting the Sacred Cow podcast!) back to back for eternity. Joe Flacco is starting and if you recall, he gave the Pats a scare but of course, the Jets give up 10 points in the final 5 minutes and lose. But the Jets also are without the INT leader Pierre Desir and Brian Poole. I just see the Chargers kicking their dicks in despite being 1-7 SU of late, 1-5 SU at home, and 2-4 ATS at home against the Jets (Phil Rivers years) Don’t worry, the Jets don’t have much going for them, 2-7 ATS of late and 1-6 ATS on the road. But again, why not make it under a TD so you can’t get backdoored.

First half of the teaser: Chargers -3.5

I think this last pick is the easiest of them all. Remember gambling rule #2: always bet against Mark Sanchez and Andy Dalton. Yes, Dallas just came off a bye but remember, they’re playing on Thanksgiving against their hated rival, the Redskins. Would you be surprised if they just get to Minnesota and went through the motions to prep against a team they are in the middle of a division race for? Let’s also acknowledge Kirk Cousins BEST spot is when he’s at home for a 1pm start, he’s ~65% ATS. Dallas is on their THIRD center this week; I don’t care if it’s Dalton, Aikman, Quincy Carter behind center, that’s gonna screw them up. And if you haven’t been paying attention; Minnesota has quietly been a covering machine, 6-1 ATS of late and 4-2 SU. They’re 7-0 ATS home against Dallas (Dak’s years to boot!). Dallas 1-8 ATS of late, 1-6 SU, 0-6 ATS on the road. These numbers inspire less confidence than me sitting down to watch a Jack Black/Seth Rogen/Ben Stiller movie. I have to finish up a teaser so let’s make this virtually foolproof.

Second half of teaser: Vikings -1

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