NFL Super Bowl 2019 ATS picks

The Super Bowl is truly bittersweet for me.  On one end, this signifies the end of the NFL season.  It also signifies the end of the freeeeeee money printing press that’s been in my house since week 1.  Even though I went 1-2 last week, (took the Saints under but lost the teaser and KC under.  How the fuck did they beat me when the halftime score was 14-0 and the OU was 56?  Wow.) I’m still 60% (72/120) for the year.  That’s pretty damn solid, a high water mark for my career.  And for the finale of the season, I’m only taking the side in this game, I’m not sure about the total but I’m leaning under.  What I do have are 7 prop bets.  I’m not counting those against my W/L record for the season.  Here we go: 

What did we learn 2 weeks ago?  The rumor of the Pats death is greatly exaggerated.  Brady did what he does best, score with the opposing team giving him too much time.  Andy Reid is the worst clock manager, worse than any Jets head coach.  Fun fact, the Pats fans will travel to the game, Rams fans barely show up at home.  You think they’re getting on a 6 hour flight?  I don’t.  

The worst thing the Rams have going against the are the Pats lost to the Eagles last year.  Brady is looking to getting another ring before considering retirement.  He says he’s not but his abilities have definitely shown regression.  I’ll lay the load on Gronkowski retiring this season, ESPECIALLY if they win.  I always back up my handicaps with numbers: 4-1 SU in their last 5, 8-4 ATS.  5-0 SU vs the Rams, 5-1 ATS but to be fair, this was pre-McVay.  I will also say that after each of their first 2 Super bowl losses, they won their next appearance in the Super bowl.  Yes, the Super bowl dogs are 13-4 ATS and 6/7 winning outright.  Pats are not the bet in the Super bowl, 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS.  BUT the Pats are 8-0 against playoff teams this year.  How do you beat Brady?  Putting him on his back more than your mother.  Just ask my NY football Giants.  The Rams DO have those pass rushers in Suh and Donald who can get the QB.  But Brady faced ZERO pressure from the Chiefs who have a decent pass rush.  When was the last the Patriots bad loss?  Against the Titans…in October.  And the Chargers D got buttfucked with their zone defense against the Pats run.  So if the Rams are going to win, it’s because the D got Brady and maybe got a turnover or 2.

But remember, betting the NUMBER wins you games, not the team.  I jumped on this bet an hour after the AFC game was over but as of Sat night, it’s 2.5.  If you’re liking the Pats, jump on it now.  I did because when they do win, they barely win.  It’s less than a FG.  And Bellichick gets 2 weeks to prep for Jared Goff who was ok vs the Cowboys but good (especially in the 2nd half) vs the Saints.  The Pats players combined for over 60 Super Bowl games of experience.  The Rams?  2.  The newness/inexperience for the Rams players will put them at a disadvantage.  Oh yeah, Todd Gurley was AWFUL against the Saints.  He’s obviously pretty hobbled.  For the Patriots, this routine is as easy for them as Sunday morning, deflate balls, or tape other teams practices.  This is the last one for the Patriots.  It makes me sick having to bet them again but I might as well financially capitalize on them winning.  It will be the Rams’s time soon, just not yet.

I bet the Pats -1.5 

After Julian Edelman, who is Brady’s best pass catcher? James White by a landslide.  He had 15 catches vs the Chargers but 4 vs KC.  He had 97 yds vs LAC, 49 vs KC.  I just see them dinking and dunking against the Rams D.  They’re not stretching the field with the lack of deep threat and Brady’s arm is weaker.  So you can bet that White is getting his catches and yards.  And remember, he decimated the Falcons in the Superbowl 2 years ago with a 14 for 110 yds performance.

James White over 6 catches, James White over 52.5 receiving yards.

This game will be close so feel free to take YES on:

Game will be tied again after 0-0.  

Pats D combined 24 1Q points in their 8 Super bowl games.  Pats have scored 3 TOTAL points in those 8 first quarters.  Rams also push the pedal down in the 2nd half, not the first half.

1Q under 10.5

This happens nearly EVERY year.  Teams get looser after half time, break out the gadget plays.  MOST teams play it conservatively in the first half and defenses begin to tire in the second half.

More scores in the 2nd half than 1st, -.5

I know I said above that the Pats are notoriously SLOW starters with 3 pts in ALL of the first quarters in their Super bowl appearances.  For some reason, I think they’re going to slightly outscore the Rams early as the Rams will be a bundle of nerves, especially in the first quarter.

Pats -.5 in the 1Q

Julian Edelman in 7 of the last 11 over 79.5 yards.  In the playoffs, 10/12 over 79.5 receiving yards.  Roby-Fullman (the guy who popped the Saints WR where no PI was called) will be most likely covering Edelman.  Gronk won’t be getting the main passing yards and Hogan/Dorsett aren’t the big targets.  Definitely Brady’s security blanket, he didn’t play last year, and he missed 4 games this year.  He’ll want to make a name for himself this Superbowl.

Edelman over 82.5 yds

OVER National Anthem time.  People know the length via rehearsal, hence why it’s so high on over.

OVER 3 times I poop Monday morning from all of the awful food.  

UNDER 9 Tito’s and club.  I have to drive home and be responsible.  

OVER 8.5 times I say throughout the night that the next time I watch an NFL game will be in Vegas.

And if you’re wondering my box numbers, here they are:

Rams 5, Pats 8

Rams 4, Pats 8

Rams 8, Pats 0

Rams 3, Pats 1

Rams 9, Pats 1

Rams 1, Pats 0

Rams 2, Pats 5

Rams 0, Pats 4

Good luck in the last game of the year.  The next time I’m betting football, I’ll be in Vegas. And I hope you are too.

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