My favorite quote is, “A rich man never has to tell anyone he’s rich.” Everyone’s going to know you’ve got cash/power/whatever you crave by the way you act and carry yourself. Words to live by. My second favorite quote is by Walter Payton when asked why he doesn’t do a touchdown dance after scoring and just hands the ball to the ref: “Act like you’ve been there before.” Brilliant. You ever sit in first class on a plane and then see the obvious people who’ve never sat there before? Taking selfies. Calling their friends, loudly saying how they’re in first class and “OMG, I just got a hot towel and cocktail. WITHOUT PAYING FOR IT! Hashtag livin that balla life.” Yuck. Act like you’ve been there before. That’s probably going to be a top 10 highlight of their life. Which is sad. You want to be a baller, you want to be part of the big time? The first step is playing the part. Act like you’ve been there before.
Even though my picks have been as hot as your sister on prom night, I’m going to implement Walter’s advice. Even though I’ve hit an ASTRONOMICAL 61% this year, I’m just going to act like I’ve been there before. Even though I haven’t. Last year, I was 56%, Pretty good. How did I do last week? Let’s go to the videotape! Wild card weekend, 3-0 (hit the Colts on the money line, Chargers/Seattle teaser, Seattle over) 69 out of 113 for this NFL season. So let’s keep cashing tickets. And when we get rich, we don’t mention a goddamn thing about it. We just carry ourselves in such a manner while swimming in all of that FREEEEEEE MONEY!
Lock of the week:
If you’ve followed me all season, you’re going to know real fast where some of these picks land. Cause I’m taking 2 teams that have made me a boatload of cash. Bill Simmons has the best rule of gambling: “Don be a hero, just win money.” And that’s what we going to do again this week. Because I love the Saints. And I love them home AND off a bye. Drew Brees sat week 17 in a meaningless game. 3 weeks to rest those 40 year old bones. The Saints are 10-4 ATS of late, 4-2 ATS at home. Saints 4-1 at home vs Philly. Yeah, I know what you’re going to say. The Saints offense has slowed down the last month. You’re right, it did. BUT how many of those games were at home? Since 11/18 when they played Philly, they’ve had 4 games at home, one was week 17 where they rested Brees. What did they score for those 3 home games? 48 vs Philly, 31 vs Atl, and 31 vs Pitt. Yes, you’re ready to fire out the, “Nick Foles is back, they pulled it out of their ass in Chicago. Watch them make a run like last year.” Yeah, they also had home field last year. Yep, now give me the road warrior argument. You’re right, my NY Giants did the same thing in 06 and played one home game in 12. So Philly got lucky with the kick against the Bears. Do you think they’re going to hold the Saints to 15 points like the Bears? Remember, they went through at LEAST 10 players in the secondary. Yes, they’re beginning to gel but do you think they can stop the Saints? At home? After they’ve been playing live or die games EVERY week for over a month? I don’t. BTW, Saints have gone over with Philly 6/9 and the Saints are 9/13 at home. Remember what I said about don’t be a hero? Yeah, I’m going to stack the odds in my favor. 9 and 51.5 are a lot. So what? So let’s dance!
I teased the Saints down to -3 and over 45 but you can get them from 8 to 2 now.
The Indianapolis Colts have been a money printing press for my buddy Nick and I this week. I daresay we’ve lost only 1 game (Jacksonville) when betting them. They’re 10-1 since week 6. Didn’t even sweat them on the ML last week against Hou as they went up 14-0 before I finished my first beer. Andrew Luck is playing the same way you bang your wife, lights out. His red zone stats, stupid. 32 TDs, 1 INT. He has run the ball way more in the last month; 4/5 games he’s rushed for 5 times or more. Eric Ebron has more TDs that Ertz and Gronkowski? Wow. Marlon Mack has been a godsend to that running game as 3/5 of his last games, he’s ran for over 119 yards. Now he gets the Chiefs defense who is DEAD LAST vs the run? Speaking of that KC defense, they’ve given up 28 or more 4 out of their last 6. Colts defense on the other hand given up 26 points or LESS since week 6. Oh yeah, it snowed all night and into today in KC. KC 6/8 under vs Indy and Indy has been under 9/13 on road. KC at home of late is 10/13. The line has dropped 1.5 points in a couple of hours so if you’re liking it, take it NOW. I know, a dome team in the snow. Low scoring benefits the Colts and the Chiefs at home, not good. KC 1-5-1 ATS, 1-4 at home. KC 1-7 ATS home vs Indy. I love the Colts, they can even win outright. And I love them a lot more when I…
Tease the Colts to +11. I also took the under 56.5.
The cockroaches are out. That’s right, Dallas fans can survive a nuclear bomb and shit, they may even survive a trip to LA. The Rams are off the bye but those fans are like Alexandra Ocasio Cortez at a MENSA meeting, not showing up. Since she’s busy making up numbers about taxing the rich to pay for medicare, I’ll stick to provable numbers. The Rams have ONE cover at home and of late, 0-5-2 against the number. 4-7-2 overall ATS of late. And why do they keep talking about Todd Gurley’s health? If he’s healthy, no one is saying a word. But they keep bringing it up which means he’s still banged up. Dallas is another team that has caught lightning at the absolutely right team. Speaking of, I’m going to shit if Dallas and Philly square off in the championship round. God, I wish for a pandemic in each of those cities. Anyway, Dallas is 4-1 SU and ATS at the Rams. Dallas is 4-2 ATS of late but most importantly, 6-2-1 ATS of late. They have Zeke Elliot who is going to run through the Rams defense like Leonardo DiCaprio runs through Ford agency models. Running=controlling the clock. Dallas is going to keep this close. One more fun fact that shocked me: Dak Prescott has the MOST game winning drives since 2016. Impressive, as is getting 7. But let’s push the odds even more in our favor…
The second half of the teaser is Dallas +13.
Kevin Gootee 