Week 12 NFL picks against the spread

4-3 last week as GB smoked that over to put me above .500 for the week.  Let’s give a shoutout to that Jacksonville coach, fuckwad Doug Marrone, as he decided erase all good karma by throwing the the ball deep in Jax territory with little time left on the clock in the 4th quarter in a tied game.  Common sense would have had him run out the clock so they can get to OT.  Jacksonville had a nice comeback, tying it up from down 13 and then watched my money disappear like Rob Schneider’s career as Phil Dawson kicked a 57 yd fg to seal it for the Cardinals.  Indy lost by .5 as they gave up a late TD and blew a decent lead.  However, the Pats cruised to the over as the aforementioned GB/Pitt over.  The Niners hung tight for awhile but Russell Wilson poured it on late.  The Bengals did smoke the Browns like I foresaw as well.  Do I go back to the well with the Jags?  Read on and find out.  BTW, I took the Skins on Thursday night and Kirk Cousins went Kirk Cameron on me.  Praying for something good to happen and it never did.  Now THAT’S how you write a joke.  So I’m 0-1 to start the week.  Also, I put down money on the Saints to win the NFC championship at 6-1 odds.  Wish me luck.

Short answer, yep.  And as sad as this is going to sound, I have Blake Bortles going for me to determine if I get a first round bye in fantasy football.  You’re probably asking yourself if I’m throwing the game so I don’t get the bye by starting Bortles and I would too if the shoe was on the other foot.  Problem is, I drafted Eli Manning very late and then dropped him for Alex Smith who played out of his mind for nearly 2 months.  Then Alex Smith started looking like Alex Trebek for too long.  My buddy snaked Case Keenum off the wire so I was left with Bortles or Gabbert.  So cross your fingers that Bortles eviscerates the Indy defense which resembles Jenna Jameson’s butthole.  Let’s cross your toes and tongue that Marquis Lee and Leonard Fournette also have good days for your favorite sports handicapper.  The Jags are 5-0 ATS vs Indy and that should be all you need to know.  Ok, another nugget.  Indy is 2-4 ATS on the road.  The Jags losing in such an ugly fashion should be the perfect time to take them in the bounce back to put them smack in the middle of the division race.  

Take the Jags -9.5

What can you say about the Patriots that hasn’t been said, especially the cheating and shitty fans elements?  But give the White Devil his due, Bellichek is a covering machine and this week, those rapscallions are in Buffalo which is almost another home game for them.  Pats are recently 5-0 ATS, 7-1 on the road, and 4-1 in Buff.  Buffalo recently 2-4-1, 2-4-1 vs the Pats, and 2-10-1 home vs NE.  In the last month, Buffalo has put up over 20 2x but both when they were getting blown out in garbage time.  Buffalo has no WR and the Pats D has improved of late.  I don’t see much going for the Bills except a lot of, “wait till next decade” talk.

Take the Pats -9

Minnesota has been on one hell of a cinderella ride this year, despite losing their rookie RB, Dalvin Cook, and riding the coattails of a QB named Case.  Seriously, who names their kid, Case?  I hope his parents finished the joke and named his brother, Closed.  Wacka, wacka, wacka.  The Vikes had 10 days off after dismantling the Lions to prep for the Falcons who have had a mild resurgence.  I think that the Vikings being 15-8 on the road and Atlanta 1-3-1 vs Minny should be good enough reasons to take the Purple team this week.  I also like the over and the numbers back it up: Minn is 4/5 hitting the overs and hit 5/7 of them on the road.  Falcons have put up 30+ 3 times this year but don’t expect them to replicate that against a solid Vikes D.  

Take the Vikings +3 and the over 47

The Lions were smoked last week and now they head to Baltimore, who couldn’t cover against the hapless Texans.  Matt Stafford looked like he ate John Madden before the game on Thanksgiving so I think they play better.  Baltimore doesn’t inspire confidence at home, as they’re 2-4 ATS.  And Detroit of late is 2-4-1 ATS.  But I tell you what jumps out at me, the over.  Detroit has been hot with the over of late, 6/7 and 4/6 vs Bal.  The Ravens have recently hit the over 5/7.  So let’s see if backwards hat Matt Stafford can put up enough to hit and Joe Flacco puts up his usual pick 6 so we can hit…

The over 43.5

The lock of the week was easier than all of your mothers this week.  Yep, 41 years old and not afraid to drop a, “your mother” joke in there.  This isn’t the NY Times, folks.  The Saints lost a tough one in LA last week and now they’re back to home, sweet home.  When the Saints are home and have a winning record, they’re 17-3-1 out of their last 21.  Holy.  Christ.  Saints are 4-0-1 vs Carolina while the Panthers are 2-4 in NO.  Saints are recently 6-3 ATS and now after a loss?  Yeah, they’re fired up and playing Carolina who A) got lucky that the Jets went FULL Jets and gave up a late lead AGAIN.  Oh yeah, Carolina backdoored the cover with a late FG.  Olsen is banged up again and Cam didn’t play well against the Jets.  I just see the #Pangeabirthmarkface demolishing the Panthers at home and really no other way around it.  I kind of like the over but I don’t know if Carolina will put up their end to cover.  Although the last 2 times these teams played in NO, they combined for 79 points BOTH times.  

Love the Saints -5 and maybe the over 48.  

I kind of like:

The Jets to bounce back +3.  KC had a tough time in Giants Stadium last week and the Jets play well as home dogs.

LAC -13 getting revenge for the Browns beating them last year.

Rams -7 in AZ.  Do you think Blaine Gabbert keeps this up, even though they’re home again?  I doubt it.

Niners +3 who are 4-2 on the road while the Bears are 0-4 ATS at home as favorites.

Detroit +3 who has had 10 days to prep against a team who has played nothing but backup QBs in their last stretch.  Bal 2-4 ATS at home as well.

TB over 45.  Jameis Winston is back so I’m laying off this.  The line opened GB +2 but the pros jumped on that immediately and now is GB -2.5

 

 

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