Well, it took 5 weeks but I finally had a losing week as the Falcons shit up a 17 point lead, Fitzpatrick bails out Geno Smith (you read that right), and Minnesota got mauled in Philly.
Seattle played a marathon stinker last sunday night as the game ended in a tie of FGs. Russell Wilson is banged up but remember the last time I said that, he decimated the Jets. Whoa, whoa, whoa, stop the clock. You know who is out for Seattle? Michael Bennett AND Kam Chancellor. 2 guys that would normally make Drew Brees life hell but not today. Drew Brees at home AND getting points? Here’s a stat to make you feel better: Saints are 28-8 ATS at home after a road loss. You had me at Drew Brees getting points at home
I’m taking the Saints +2
Raiders have stayed on the east coast after decimating the Jags (then again, who hasn’t? How Gus Bradley still has a job means he has a considerable amount of blackmail material against the owner). Derek Carr has been doing not as well this year but well enough to win. Stats? You got it. Oak in EST, 9-10 ATS. Ok, fine. But Oak this year is 4-0 on the road and TB is 0-4. Also, Bucs at home are 6-23 straight up, 9-20 ATS. No Doug Martin and Gerald McCoy is banged up. Oak is -1, so they just need to pretty much win outright. Both defenses stink so let’s really capitalize on this. I’m thinking this has 28-24 written all over it.
I’m taking the Raiders -1 and over 49
I’ve fallen for this several times this year and I’m sure most of you have as well. The Super Bowl hangover is real. But goddamnit, if Cam Newton stinks it up after a bye again, you can put the Panthers in the “untrustworthy” category. Arizona comes to play at 1pm on the east coast so you have that going for you…which is nice. And they ALSO played 5 quarters in that sunday night stinkaroo. Are you trusting Carson Palmer on the road? I’m not
I’m taking Carolina -3
Dallas is off the bye and home. Dallas has won games because of Elliot, their O line, and D. Dak Prescott is managing games well; sans the Niners game where he ran all over them, he’s not making huge throws. Dallas may very well win this game. BUT…Philly’s D has been shockingly great. They have some good special teams and yes, Wentz has come a little back to Earth. Eagles have won their last 3 in Dallas. And let’s talk ATS, which is nothing like ATM, you perverts. Dallas is 9 out of their last 34 ATS as a home favorite. Philly as an underdog vs Dallas is 26-9. The spread is too high, this game is going to be closer than 5 and Philly can even win outright.
I’m taking Philly +5
I haven’t had one of these in awhile but goddamnit, this is the Lock of the Week.
We’re back on the Tom Brady, “Fuck you” bandwagon. I’ll be shocked, shocked, SHOCKED! (Another Mad Dog reference) if Brady doesn’t run them out of their own building. First meeting this year, Pats were shut out since Michael Dukakis thought he had a chance to win the presidency. Bellichek isn’t getting swept this year. And he’s certainly not forgetting the pre-game mini brawl that took place a month ago. The line has moved up to 6 but I don’t care. McCoy is probably out, so is Watkins, and Clay is banged up. Their defense looks like the team North Texas in Necessary Roughness. Brady and the boys run them out of their own building.
I’m taking the Pats -6