NFL Week 2 picks

Sorry we missed each other last week.  I was in Vegas, drinking too much and pissing away money at the blackjack table.

blackjack-table

I did get to do a spot at the Southpoint Casino last Friday night for the Dirty at 12:30 show.  Check out that show, had a blast doing it.

Last week, I went 2-3 with the picks.  The fucking Panthers took the foot off the gas and screwed me but then again, the Raiders came to save my bacon with that 2 point conversion.  This week, I already hit with the Jets +1 in Buffalo.  I knew the Jets had to beat Rex some time and Gang Green scorched Rex’s defense so good on me.  Ok, here are the picks:

New England barely beat Arizona in Zona.  Miami almost won in Seattle.  Is Tom Brady back yet?  Nope.  Is Gronkowski even at 75% yet?  Nope.  6.5 is too many points for a non-Brady led Patriots and the Dolphins D made Wilson look silly last week.  What do you think they’re going to do to a rookie QB?  Line opened at -4.5 and it’s now gone up 2 points this week.  People are going to get this one wrong or they locked in at the right time.  Pats will win but not cover.

I’m taking the Fish +6.5

TB has a new coach and a new attitude, just like Patti Labelle.  Only reason I threw out a Patty Labelle reference is because I just got some of Beverly Hills Cop on TV.  Tampa just made the Atlanta D look silly while on the road.  AZ defense is better but here’s my thing: Vegas always takes a couple of weeks to get a read on the teams better and what does that mean for us?  Higher points for underdogs!  7 is too many to take AZ but they’ll win nonetheless.

I’m taking the Bucs +7 unless the line drops below 7.  Then I take Zona.

Call me a homer but don’t call me daughter.  Pearl Jam reference, check.  Although I find Pearl Jam to be a bit overrated.  Their last 3 albums, not so great.  And I dare you to make it through, “Ten” without skipping some of the heavier played songs like Jeremy or Evenflow.  They don’t stand the test of time, sorry.  Anyway, I took the Giants last week in Vegas because 4 straight season opener losses HAD to stop and especially against a rookie QB.  Eli looked great and that INT was on Sheppard as he didn’t run a proper route.  Running game needs work.  But they’re playing the Saints who were COMPLETELY eviscerated by the Raiders last week AT NEW ORLEANS. The Saints are good ATS on the road, 5-1.  And I’ll be at Giants stadium tomorrow, watching my boys put up an aerial attack like Carr’s crew did last week.  If you have ANYONE on the Giants for fantasy football, start them.  I have OBJ and Cruz in some of my leagues and like Bart Scott said, “CAN’T WAIT!”  Rain is in the forecast but not until after the game. I don’t care the over has moved up 2 points, both teams combined by 101 points last year and I don’t see them having a defensive battle.  But taking the Giants is ALWAYS risky so…

I’m taking the Giants over 53.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars came DAMN close to beating GB last week.  The Chargers shit the bed in a profound fashion last week.  That’s the recipe for a major Chargers turnaround, right? Wrong.  Keenan Allan blew his knew out.  And the Jax D is VASTLY improved.  No Ivory last or this week but Yeldon stepped in nicely.  Right now, the line is SD-3 and I think Jax wins this outright.  But if not, they’ll have a 3 pt cushion.

I’m taking Jax +3

Heartbreak in Indianapolis last week.  That’s what I would say if I was a single man living there, yeesh.  The average girl is about 25 lbs overweight and probably gives a lazy BJ in that town.

anistonBut if you saw that game, Lions drove the field and won it with a last second FG.  Denver did beat Carolina at home but not by much.  That offense hasn’t clicked yet with a rookie QB and now I’m getting 6 or 7 points with a pissed off Andrew Luck?  That’s like asking would I like bacon with that?  Denver may win but they sure aren’t winning by more than a TD.

I’m taking the Colts +7

I’m a little leery now of this one because the line swung 3 points the way I want to go but goddamnit, the Browns are back with McCown as QB.  RG Knee (as my buddy Walt calls them) is done and I bought into the browns last week against Philly, whoops!  I know Bal is on the road but man, a backup QB in his first game of the year?  The line is now at -6 but if this goes to 7, I’m not touching it.

I MAY take Baltimore but only if it’s below -7

GB almost lost to Jax on the road last week.  I haven’t seen a discount double check commercial this year, yet.  What do both have in common?  Not a fucking thing, welcome to the mind of someone with VICIOUS ADD.  I don’t care Minnesota is christening a brand new stadium.  Blair (Horrible first name for a guy, I would’ve changed it immediately) Walsh shanked a couple AND a PAT last week.  That Titans game should have been a lot worse than it was.  Minnesota is missing 2 starters on D AND Sam Bradford is back in at QB?  I don’t care that Minn is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games, the line is GB-2.5??  Please, Aaron Rodgers answers the bell against division rivals and will look to spoil the ribbon cutting up in Minn

I’m taking GB -2.5

The revenge factor: ALWAYS factor that in when making bets.  KC pretended like Houston was a drunk sorority pledge last year in the playoffs by completely having their way with them.  Last week, SD completely collapsed with the KC charge led by Alex Smith.  That’s right, Alex Smith.  The guy the NAWWWNERS (Francesa reference, check!) took over Aaron Rodgers.  Is Alex Smith going to come back and shit on Houston’s chest again in their own building?  Nope.  KC defense got gashed early and often.  If Melvin Gordon (I’d rather have Flash Gordon or Commissioner Gordon) can run roughshod against the Chiefs, Lamar Miller can easily manhandle this D.  The Texans circled this game twice in red pen and the spread is only -1 or -1.5?  I think Vegas thinks the Chiefs are better than they are.  No matter, that makes this pick MUCH easier for me.

I’m taking Hou -1.5

Stone Cold Lock of the week  Simpsons reference? Check! images

My buddies and I every year pick a team and go over or under for total wins for the year.  This year, we took Oakland and hit the first game of the year in a wacky fashion.  I said it before and I’ll say it again, Oakland can very well win division.  We need them to win 9 or more games and it’s a freeeeee steak dinner at a top joint in NYC.  So the Falcons D gets buttfucked at home by the Bucs.  Now they’re flying 3000 miles west against a team that buttfucked the Saints defense?  The Falcons are garbage, ESPECIALLY on the road.  Line is -4.5 and I think that’s a bargain.  Derek Carr and Amari Cooper are on some of my fantasy teams and boy, this is gonna be a blowout.

I LOVE the Raiders -4.5 and MAY take the over at 48.  Raiders are the lock of the week

Bonus pick:

I won’t take this one unless it goes to over 7 but if you’re feeling saucy, take the Rams +6.5 over Seattle.  Did you see the Hawks game?  Looked like they were playing with a slow internet connection.  Rams home opener with a banged up Wilson?  Man, this could be the shock of the week.  I think they can definitely hang tight and if it goes to 7 OR if I hit a ton of 1pm games, I just may

Take the Rams +6.5

Season record 2-3

This week: Jets +1, 1-0

 

 

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